Business Forecast
Industry Forecast: Edible Grocery (% change)
Industry Forecast: Salty Snacks (% change) 2017
2016
2015
2017
5.6%
6.4%
5.7%
3.7% 2.8%
Industry Dollar Sales
Dollar Sales per Store
3.1% 2.0%
Unit Volume per Store
2015 figures are actual; 2016 are estimated based on nine months; 2017 are forecasted Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017
2015
4.9%
4.7%
5.5%
5.0%
4.3%
2016
0.1% 1.3%
1.1%
-0.6% 0.7%
Industry Dollar Sales
-0.8%
Dollar Sales per Store
Unit Volume per Store
2015 figures are actual; 2016 are estimated based on nine months; 2017 are forecasted Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017
Retailer Forecast: Salty Snacks
Retailer Forecast: Edible Grocery
2017 sales per store will:
2017 sales per store will:
Increase
Decrease
Stay the same
Increase
Decrease
26.5% 57.6%
73.5% Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017
c-store customers. That being said, all signs are pointing to a flattening of the edible grocery category in 2017 when it comes to three major stats: industry dollar sales, dollar sales per store, and unit volume per store. The predictions for 2017 call for a slowdown, with industry dollar sales forecasted to be flat (up a negligible 0.1 percent) and dollar sales per store declining slightly by 0.6 percent. Unit volume per store could dip 0.8 percent, according to CSNews projections. Retailers’ expectations are in line with the forecast. The majority of retailers surveyed expect edible grocery to run even in 2017 — 57.6 percent predict their edible grocery sales per store will stay the same for the year vs. 33.3 percent who think their sales will increase. Conversely, 9.1 percent of retailers expect their sales of edible grocery to fall. According to one respondent, it “cannot compete because of the limited space available for these types of items.”
52 Convenience Store News | JANUARY 2017 | WWW.CSNEWS.COM
Stay the same
Net change: 2.2%
Net change: 4.2%
33.3% 9.1%
Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017
Methodology Convenience Store News partnered with ThinkResearch to produce the 15th annual Industry Forecast Study. The forecast models are developed by looking at past monthly sales and unit performance, along with outside economic factors such as disposable income, employment, etc. Final models are selected for each category and then aggregated to obtain total industry and per-store figures for dollar sales and unit volume. The Nielsen Co. provided sales and unit data for convenience, as well as for total food, drug and mass for in-store categories. Nielsen TDLinx provided monthly store counts, which were used to forecast the annual average number of stores. The forecast shows an increase of 0.7 percent in store count for both 2016 and 2017. Government data sources include the Department of Energy for gasoline price and volume; the Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts for data on disposable income; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics for unemployment rates and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Retailer Forecast and Supplier Forecast are based on the results of a survey fielded in November 2016. Retailers, wholesalers and suppliers were asked to predict 2017 sales per store for a variety of categories, as well as to share their opinions on overall business and economic trends. A total of 152 responses are included in these results.