A VISION FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN AMERICA’S NORTHEAST CORRIDOR University of Pennsylvania | School of Design March 1, 2010
STUDIO OUTLINE Systems Analysis An overview of the Northeast Megaregion’s transportation network, including opportunities, constraints, and potential upgrades.
Station Development Rapid connections to neighboring cities have the potential to transform areas around stations and spur enormous private investment.
Airports Analysis
Short flights contribute to congestion, which impacts mobility along the corridor. Can rail be leveraged to relieve some of this congestion?
Regional Economic Opportunity
HSR HS2 Comparison The planned HSR system in England faces similar challenges to that of the NEC. What lessons can we learn?
An interconnected Northeast Corridor will be more competitive by strategically linking people, places, institutions, and industries.
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
HOW CAN HIGH-SPEED RAIL CREATE A NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY FOR THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR?
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
REGIONAL ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
1. Existing Economic Geography What are the current demographic and market realities of our growth patterns?
2. Regional Economic Effects of High-Speed Rail What are the impacts of High-Speed Rail on economic development?
3. Topics for Future Research What are the implications for public policies?
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Delaware New York Maryland
MAJOR EMPLOYERS BY INDUSTRY
Washington, DC
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Manufacturing
Accomodations
Retail
Finance
Professional Services
Government
Health Care
Other
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
Chart courtesy of Regional Plan Association. Data source: BLS Current Employment Statistics Survey, 1990-2004.
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
9% Graduate or Professional Degree
Highest Degree Obtained
14%
16% Bachelor's Degree 20%
29% High School Graduate 27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percent of Population with Degree
United States
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Northeast Corridor
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Delaware Maryland
EDUCATIONAL CENTERS
Washington, DC
Institutions Student Body
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
TOP GLOBAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES World Rank
National Rank
Institution*
1 1 Harvard University 2 2 Stanford University 3 3 University of California, Berkeley 4 1 University of Cambridge 5 4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 6 5 California Institute of Technology 7 6 Columbia University 8 7 Princeton University 9 8 University of Chicago 10 2 University of Oxford 11 9 Yale University 12 10 Cornell University 13 11 University of California, Los Angeles 14 12 University of California, San Diego 15 13 University of Pennsylvania 16 14 University of Washington 17 15 University of Wisconsin - Madison 18 16 University of California, San Francisco 19 17 The Johns Hopkins University 20 1 The University of Tokyo Source: Shanghai Jiao Tong University (2007). "Academic Ranking of World Universities"
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Educated Cities Win In The New Economy Geography Each additional year of education of workers in a metro area leads to another 2.8 percent growth in productivity. (Rauch 1993) The cities and metros with highly skilled workers in the 1990s also had high population and income growth. (Glaeser 2000) The metro areas that have high proportions of skilled, educated labor are better able to reinvent themselves and adapt to changing economic needs. (Glaeser 2003)
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Higher Densities Lead to Greater Productivity and Innovation Average labor productivity increases with more employment density (Ciccone and Hall 1996) Patent activity, as a proxy for innovation, was higher in the 1990s in those metros with higher employment densities (Carlino 2001) Higher productivity found in “accessible” cities with efficient transportation systems than in more dispersed places (Cervero 2000)
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY The Northeast Consumed Large Amounts of Land Relative to Population Growth 35.6%
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton, PA-NJ-DE-MD
7.0%
20.5%
New York-Northern New JerseyLong Island, NY-NJ-CT
MSAs
6.1%
19.2%
New Haven-Waterbury-Meriden, CT
7.0%
20.4%
Hartford-New Britain-MiddletownBristol, CT
7.6%
46.9%
Boston-Lawrence-Salem-LowellBrockton, MA NE
6.7% 0%
5%
10%
15%
Change in Urbanized Land 1992-1997
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Change in Population 1992-1997
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
HOT & COLD CITIES Growth Cities Underperforming Cities
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
GLOBAL CASE STUDIES
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Office Location By expanding market size and accessibility, HSR enhances opportunities for face-to-face contact, collaboration, and specialization Commuter Travel Potential change in the spacial relationship between home and office Tourism and Cultural Draws High-speed rail has the potential to dramatically impact the tourism industry
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Office Location Building a New City Center in Lille •
HSR access enabled Lille to transition from a heavy industry to a knowledge-based economy
•
Knowledge-based businesses benefit from enhanced opportunities for collaboration and face-to-face contact
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Commuter Travel Commuting via Shinkansen •
Shinkansens run frequently during all day, with additional departures during peak periods
•
Tokyo’s commuter shed expanded, alleviating housing pressure in the central city
Expanded housing markets and commutersheds •
City-to-city commuting becomes possible, alleviating housing market pressure in strong cities and strengthening markets elsewhere
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Tourism and Cultural Draws Tokiado Shinkansen: New Demand •
Intercity travel increased along the Tokiado Shinkansen, indicating that HSR induced travel demand
Seville: Tourists Replace Business Travelers at Hotels •
Hotels saw an increase in business travel frequency despite a decrease in length of stay
•
Additionally the frequency and length of tourism stays increased
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
FUTURE RESEARCH
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030
ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Take Aways From Global Case Studies: Informing Our Future Research and Policy Recommendations • • • •
Expand Market Areas Enhance Collaboration Opportunities Strengthen Office Markets Reduce Housing Pressure
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
AIRPORTS ANALYSIS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATION DEVELOPMENT
HSR HS2 COMPARISON
NEC HSR
2030