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A VISION FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN AMERICA’S NORTHEAST CORRIDOR University of Pennsylvania | School of Design March 1, 2010


STUDIO OUTLINE Systems Analysis An overview of the Northeast Megaregion’s transportation network, including opportunities, constraints, and potential upgrades.

Station Development Rapid connections to neighboring cities have the potential to transform areas around stations and spur enormous private investment.

Airports Analysis

Short flights contribute to congestion, which impacts mobility along the corridor. Can rail be leveraged to relieve some of this congestion?

Regional Economic Opportunity

HSR HS2 Comparison The planned HSR system in England faces similar challenges to that of the NEC. What lessons can we learn?

An interconnected Northeast Corridor will be more competitive by strategically linking people, places, institutions, and industries.

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


HOW CAN HIGH-SPEED RAIL CREATE A NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY FOR THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR?

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


REGIONAL ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

1. Existing Economic Geography What are the current demographic and market realities of our growth patterns?

2. Regional Economic Effects of High-Speed Rail What are the impacts of High-Speed Rail on economic development?

3. Topics for Future Research What are the implications for public policies?

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Delaware New York Maryland

MAJOR EMPLOYERS BY INDUSTRY

Washington, DC

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

Manufacturing

Accomodations

Retail

Finance

Professional Services

Government

Health Care

Other

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

Chart courtesy of Regional Plan Association. Data source: BLS Current Employment Statistics Survey, 1990-2004.

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

9% Graduate or Professional Degree

Highest Degree Obtained

14%

16% Bachelor's Degree 20%

29% High School Graduate 27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Percent of Population with Degree

United States

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

Northeast Corridor

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Delaware Maryland

EDUCATIONAL CENTERS

Washington, DC

Institutions Student Body

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


TOP GLOBAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES World Rank

National Rank

Institution*

1 1 Harvard University 2 2 Stanford University 3 3 University of California, Berkeley 4 1 University of Cambridge 5 4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 6 5 California Institute of Technology 7 6 Columbia University 8 7 Princeton University 9 8 University of Chicago 10 2 University of Oxford 11 9 Yale University 12 10 Cornell University 13 11 University of California, Los Angeles 14 12 University of California, San Diego 15 13 University of Pennsylvania 16 14 University of Washington 17 15 University of Wisconsin - Madison 18 16 University of California, San Francisco 19 17 The Johns Hopkins University 20 1 The University of Tokyo Source: Shanghai Jiao Tong University (2007). "Academic Ranking of World Universities"

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Educated Cities Win In The New Economy Geography Each additional year of education of workers in a metro area leads to another 2.8 percent growth in productivity. (Rauch 1993) The cities and metros with highly skilled workers in the 1990s also had high population and income growth. (Glaeser 2000) The metro areas that have high proportions of skilled, educated labor are better able to reinvent themselves and adapt to changing economic needs. (Glaeser 2003)

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Higher Densities Lead to Greater Productivity and Innovation Average labor productivity increases with more employment density (Ciccone and Hall 1996) Patent activity, as a proxy for innovation, was higher in the 1990s in those metros with higher employment densities (Carlino 2001) Higher productivity found in “accessible” cities with efficient transportation systems than in more dispersed places (Cervero 2000)

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY The Northeast Consumed Large Amounts of Land Relative to Population Growth 35.6%

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton, PA-NJ-DE-MD

7.0%

20.5%

New York-Northern New JerseyLong Island, NY-NJ-CT

MSAs

6.1%

19.2%

New Haven-Waterbury-Meriden, CT

7.0%

20.4%

Hartford-New Britain-MiddletownBristol, CT

7.6%

46.9%

Boston-Lawrence-Salem-LowellBrockton, MA NE

6.7% 0%

5%

10%

15%

Change in Urbanized Land 1992-1997

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Change in Population 1992-1997

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


EXISTING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

HOT & COLD CITIES Growth Cities Underperforming Cities

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


GLOBAL CASE STUDIES

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Office Location By expanding market size and accessibility, HSR enhances opportunities for face-to-face contact, collaboration, and specialization Commuter Travel Potential change in the spacial relationship between home and office Tourism and Cultural Draws High-speed rail has the potential to dramatically impact the tourism industry

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Office Location Building a New City Center in Lille •

HSR access enabled Lille to transition from a heavy industry to a knowledge-based economy

Knowledge-based businesses benefit from enhanced opportunities for collaboration and face-to-face contact

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Commuter Travel Commuting via Shinkansen •

Shinkansens run frequently during all day, with additional departures during peak periods

Tokyo’s commuter shed expanded, alleviating housing pressure in the central city

Expanded housing markets and commutersheds •

City-to-city commuting becomes possible, alleviating housing market pressure in strong cities and strengthening markets elsewhere

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Tourism and Cultural Draws Tokiado Shinkansen: New Demand •

Intercity travel increased along the Tokiado Shinkansen, indicating that HSR induced travel demand

Seville: Tourists Replace Business Travelers at Hotels •

Hotels saw an increase in business travel frequency despite a decrease in length of stay

Additionally the frequency and length of tourism stays increased

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


FUTURE RESEARCH

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HSR Take Aways From Global Case Studies: Informing Our Future Research and Policy Recommendations • • • •

Expand Market Areas Enhance Collaboration Opportunities Strengthen Office Markets Reduce Housing Pressure

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

AIRPORTS ANALYSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

STATION DEVELOPMENT

HSR HS2 COMPARISON

NEC HSR

2030


High Speed Rail Midterm Presentation