New programs roll out to Elevate the Rapid City region for everyone By Tom Johnson
D
onald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense for President George W. Bush, famously said there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. At the time, Rumsfeld was widely mocked, but over the last two decades, the simple wisdom of Rumsfeld’s words have shown themselves to be true again and again. What Rumsfeld was basically saying is that when predicting the future, there are things you know you can predict, things you know you cannot predict, and things you have no idea are coming. So what’s the outlook for the Black Hills economy in 2021? If 2020 is any indication, we’ll be getting a little of each. First, let’s start with the things we know are coming, population growth and a demand for housing. It was true before the pandemic, where the area was averaging between 1,500 and 2,000 new people each year. And the pandemic only seems to have accelerated this growth. Whether it’s the anticipated base expansion, the quality of life of the Black Hills, or just people fleeing cities on lockdown, the region won’t stop growing and the demand for housing will come along with it. Next are the things we can take a reasonable guess at but know we can’t predict for certain— things like the unemployment rate, interest rates, inflation, commercial vacancy rates, and when the hospitality economy complete
recovers and we are on the other side of the pandemic. Things continue to look up, however. Unemployment is low, interest rates remain at rock-bottom rates, inflation is pegged at just 2%, and it looks like more stimulus money and vaccines are on the horizon. Finally, there are the things we can’t know are coming. By definition, we can’t predict them, but they could include things like natural disasters, political and social unrest, market crashes, geopolitical conflicts, and pandemics (as we learned last year). We can plan for crisis in general and save for a rainy day, but when and how that rain manifests itself is left to oracles and chance. So what can we control? As the stoics said, only our thoughts and our actions. Here at Elevate Rapid City, our actions in 2021 will allow us to roll out programs that will help small business (Downtown Façade Loan Program), workforce development (training and grants for employees and workers), and entrepreneurs (our new Ascent Innovation Center). We’ll also continue to advocate for the interests of the Black Hills business community and for continued investments in quality of life. And what about our thoughts? As we look to the horizon in 2021, we’ll continue to remain steadfast to our mission, to Elevate the Rapid City region for everyone. It’s a prediction sure to come true.
POPULATION TRENDS
The population of Rapid City MSA steadily increases
136,462
2016
138,458
2017
140,167
2018
142,118
2019
143,691
2020
145,248
2021
Source: Emsi
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