2013 Annual Colorado Springs Metro Residential Real Estate Review
Market Overview In 2013 the residential real estate market in the Pikes Peak Region had an impressive year. The local market did not suffer as much through The Great Recession as many markets around the country; values locally dropped 17% vs 50%+ in other markets. This past year market values and sales units were strong, while the distressed sales market (short sales, foreclosures) all but dried-up. As has been the case for nearly 2 years, inventory levels remain low and have had a strong influence on prices increasing, even forcing some buyers to delay purchases.
deadlock and individuals not knowing the impacts of the new healthcare system. This lack of confidence showed itself as under contracts during the 4th Quarter dropped by 14% (612 units).
Residential real estate in the Colorado Springs metro area is set-up to have another strong year in 2014. Combine with the fact the market is trending up, our area is attractive with a stellar quality of life, excellent K-12 schools, fine higher education institutions including high growth at UCCS, leading industry sectors in space/amateur sports/homeland security/ Over the last quarter, the local market cooled down mining, and world-class recreational opportunities. significantly with the likely culprits being lack of buyer The Pikes Peak region will continue to be a place confidence due to concerns over the federal financial where families and professionals choose to live.
The number of sold units is always a great barometer to gauge the health of a market. For the size of our metro area, the 10,000 unit barrier is healthy. In 2013 we had an 18% jump in units sold and we expect the upcoming year to nudge above 11,000.
Annual Sales 14,000
13,124
13,000
11,911
11,746
10,795 10,204
9,995
8,339
8,745
11,000 10,000
9,147 8,185
12,000
9,000
8,439
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Annual Data Annual Average Months of Inventory 9.0
8.8
8.0
7.7
7.6 7.0
7.0
6.3 6.0
5.4
5.1
4.7
4.4
5.0 4.1
3.9
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory levels are determined by dividing the number of homes sold by the number of active listings. Many economists say a balanced market is 6.0 months. Also, inventory levels are often an early predictor of what is to come in a real estate market.
The graph below shows the number of current active listings on the market for the same period over the past 10 years. By seeing 10 years of data you can better judge the significance of the number and the state of the current market.
Active Listings 6000 5000
4000 3000 2000 1000
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Annual Data Annual Sales Prices $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 Average
$210,000 Median
$190,000 $170,000 $150,000 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The above chart shows the annual average & median sales prices for the past decade. Sales prices are the true “score” of the market. All other statistics often influence price, but not always. You can really see how the market has steadily improved since 2011.
This is new data we’ve been tracking this year. By tracking the number of under contracts each month, it allows us to watch the immediate performance of the market and forecast what lies ahead in the next 60-90 days. Most under contract properties will close over the next 30-60 days.
Under Contract 1400 1200 1000 800
600 400 200 0 Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Annual Data Annual Foreclosure Starts 6000
5470
4828
4602 3556
5000
3603
4000
3454
2570 2298
3000
2289
1861
1954
2000 1000
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The number of foreclosure starts is a reflection of many factors including: current economic health, jobs, cost of living and home prices. Additionally, when a home is sold as a foreclosure or short sale it is often at a discount which then negatively impacts overall home values .
The building of new homes is another good indicator of the market. The building of new homes in the area has recovered and the current rate of nearly 3000 homes per year is very healthy. There is pent-up demand for new homes in our market, just trying to keep up with natural population growth. If the real estate market stays healthy and lending prices stay reasonable, new home sales will likely hit 3500 in 2014.
Single Family Starts 7000
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
Annual Update Homeowners Insurance Update Colorado Paid Storm & Wildfire Claims Payout $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000
$600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000
$2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
This graph shows you the claims paid out by insurance companies due to wind, hail, tornado and wildfire. Figures are not yet in for 2013 but with the Black Forest Fire and the flooding last year the number will be significant again. Based on this information and knowing insurance companies are in the business of making money, premiums in Colorado will likely increase. Additionally, many insurance companies are
looking at changing deductibles in the state of Colorado. Some are looking at simply higher deductibles/ premiums, others are looking into rolling-out deductibles similar to areas prone to hurricanes where your deductible is a % of your total claim. I encourage you to contact your insurance agent to see if any changes are coming your way. While you are speaking with them, it is always a good idea to make sure your coverage is appropriate.
Looking Forward As 2014 begins, the residential real estate market is set-up for another strong year. A few of the real big drivers for 2014 will continue to be new home construction and the low number of foreclosures. The effect of these will be continued price appreciation which will minimize many investor purchases. With this said, those investors seeking long term investments will find residential real estate attractive as the market is trending up with signs it will continue for some time. With the vast majority of homes being purchased as principle residences, the local economy will benefit;
New Jobs—New home construction is a huge economic driver for our area. When new homes are built people are hired to build these homes and to staff the companies who provide the materials.
Seller Relief—Sellers who put off selling because they were upside-down may very well be able to sell now that their home has increased in value. These sellers are now in a better financial situation.
Buyer Options—Some buyers actually had to put-off buying in 2013 as they could not find what they wanted. With more listings now coming on the market, these buyers will have success.
We see 2014 being slightly better than last year as units sold will bump-up again, as will sales prices. If our area brings more employers to town and the military missions remain the same, it could make for a very special year.
Annual Update Chance of Selling Ever wonder what your chance of selling is? This chart shows the chance of selling in the next 30 days based on your listing price. It is critically important to price your home correctly and have it in move-in condition when selling if you want to be successful. 30% 25% 20%
15% 10% 5% 0%
Fun Facts From 2013
Most expensive sale of the year in El Paso County was in Broadmoor Resort for $2,775,000
Most expensive sale of the year in Teller County was north of Woodland Park for $1,430,000
Largest home sold this year in El Paso County was a 16,945 square foot home on Cheyenne Mountain
Largest home sold this year in Teller County was a 7138 square foot home in Pikes Peak Resort
Quick Hits From 2013
Number of Units Sold was up 18% (1648 units more than 2012)
Prices were up about 6% for Average Sales Price and 7% for Median Sales Price
Inventory Levels for the year averaged 4.1 months, compared to 4.7 in 2012
New Home Permits were up 465 units (2855 for 2013)
Foreclosure Starts dropped by nearly 1600 units to 1861, the lowest level in 10 years
Under Contracts were down during the last quarter by nearly 15%
Quarterly Pricing Tools 3-Month Area Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart is ideal for helping you determine how your neighborhood is doing. If you are considering selling your home, this information is just one tool you can reference to assist you with pricing your home strategically. Call me if you need assistance utilizing this graph. Area Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes For October 1, 2013 - December 31, 2013 Area
Listings
Solds
DOM
Inventory
Avg List $
Avg Sales $
Black Forest
81
41
84
5.9
$629,852
$443,583
Briargate
204
137
64
4.5
$350,322
$298,795
Calhan
27
13
210
6.2
$215,784
$154,308
Central
172
151
71
3.4
$245,048
$181,551
Drennan
12
8
85
4.5
$182,942
$111,000
East
163
151
65
3.2
$222,403
$190,963
Ellicott
28
19
100
4.4
$287,820
$219,668
Falcon
33
38
44
2.6
$247,438
$168,383
Falcon North
161
111
99
4.4
$319,692
$265,361
Fountain Valley
376
308
77
3.7
$214,820
$196,212
Manitou
26
11
88
7.1
$473,185
$389,345
Marksheffel
55
35
60
4.7
$308,948
$249,246
Midway
8
2
141
12.0
$182,388
$49,292
Northeast
159
163
65
2.9
$308,318
$236,569
Northgate
104
73
81
4.3
$436,167
$384,186
Northwest
132
95
69
4.2
$432,165
$335,613
Old Colorado City
61
49
68
3.7
$212,870
$213,911
Peyton
26
22
55
3.5
$527,702
$265,418
Powers
221
244
52
2.7
$233,936
$227,547
Rock Creek
7
8
51
n/a
$897,257
$266,738
Southeast
124
123
66
3.0
$146,874
$137,544
Southwest
208
121
77
5.2
$731,159
$288,573
Tri Lakes
178
102
99
5.2
$548,273
$417,370
Ute Pass
34
9
63
11.3
$363,406
$148,222
West
38
49
72
2.3
$573,625
$291,336
Divide
57
20
83
8.6
$384,363
$189,451
Woodland Park
80
49
69
4.9
$474,698
$291,425
Quarterly Pricing Tools 3-Month Price Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart combined with the previous one will help you determine your listing price if you are considering selling your home. Call me if you need assistance utilizing this graph. List Price
Active Listings
Solds
Days on Market
Inventory
Supply
Demand
Days to Sell
Months
Under $75,000
99
52
73
5.7
$75,000 to $99,999
117
75
73
4.7
$100,000 to $124,999
194
113
82
5.2
$125,000 to $149,999
336
207
69
4.9
$150,000 to $174,999
359
257
65
4.2
$175,000 to $199,999
435
240
61
5.4
$200,000 to $224,999
368
203
63
5.4
$225,000 to $249,999
391
232
77
5.1
$250,000 to $274,999
288
169
94
5.1
$275,000 to $299,999
305
138
79
6.6
$300,000 to $324,999
189
73
86
7.8
$325,000 to $349,999
182
91
75
6.0
$350,000 to $374,999
164
74
72
6.6
$375,000 to $399,999
183
63
79
8.7
$400,000 to $424,999
79
30
138
7.9
$425,000 to $449,999
93
23
105
12.1
$450,000 to $474,999
50
20
99
7.5
$475,000 to $499,999
73
28
109
7.8
$500,000 to $549,999
87
36
102
7.3
$550,000 to $599,999
96
20
94
14.4
$600,000 to $649,999
63
17
81
11.1
$650,000 to $699,999
61
13
40
14.1
$700,000 to $749,999
28
8
112
10.5
$750,000 to $799,999
45
5
67
27.0
$800,000 to $849,999
9
1
224
27.0
$850,000 to $899,999
17
1
172
51.0
$900,000 to $949,999
6
1
627
18.0
$950,000 to $999,999
23
1
460
69.0
$1 mil to $1.50 mil
60
8
91
22.5
$1.5 mil to $2.0 mil
25
2
51
37.5
$2.0 mil & above
17
0
n/a
n/a
ERA Shields Real Estate was founded in 1985. The firm is locally owned and comprised of a TEAM of individual real estate brokers who work together to provide professional real estate services. Our offices are designed to enhance the synergy amongst our team as we continue to set the bar for success in real estate.
ERA Shields Real Estate handles more relocation business than any other firm in the Pikes Peak region. We are the Principle Broker for Cartus (the world’s largest Relocation company in the world) which handles nearly 160,000 transfers each year across 165 countries.
ERA Shields Real Estate is a Top 25 Broker for ERA Real Estate. ERA Real Estate is a global real estate franchise with 31,000 sales associates in 1800 offices located in 36 countries. It is committed to bringing technology and services to its agent base which allow them to serve their clients in today’s world.
ERA Shields Real Estate is an award-winning residential real estate company for the Pikes Peak region. Annually we are recognized locally & nationally for our production and for our involvement in our community. Our agents are full-time professionals working to be Your Trusted Advisor.
ERA Shields Real Estate is committed to the Community. In 2013 we raised over $45,000 for MDA, volunteered in excess of 2000 hours and have received The Community of Kindness Award & Circle of Light Award. Our agents are encouraged to invest in our community.
The data found within the ERA Shields Real Estate Annual Review is based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR® Services Corporation (RSC) or its PPMLS, El Paso CountyTrustee, and Pikes Peak Regional Building Department. This content is deemed reliable; however RSC, PPMLS and ERA Shields Real Estate do not guarantee its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC does not reflect all real estate activity in the market.