EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE OVERVIEW As the election continues, the increased scrutiny which is the feature of modern campaigns is being brought home to all the political parties – threatening to throw their strategies off course, force them to defend policy proposals in forensic detail, and deal with the potentially vote-losing consequences of damage to their brands. The big rows of last week were Ed Miliband’s pledge to all but abolish non-domiciled tax status, and the Conservatives’ attempt to portray Labour as weak on defence by suggesting that they would abandon the renewal of Trident in a post-election deal with the Scottish Nationalists. It could be argued that both went badly for the Conservatives, with Miliband’s pledge giving Labour another opportunity to portray their opponents as ‘for a privileged few’, while the personal nature of Defence Secretary Michael Fallon’s attack on the Labour Leader raised eyebrows.
However, the real feature of both events was the fact that the crossfire came not just from the main parties, but also from critics in the press, from people on their own side and from social media – especially on Twitter. The ability of Tweeters to work themselves into a frenzy and to shape how the traditional media covers developments may have reached its pinnacle with this election. Of course, tweets won’t decide this contest – as ever, the fight will be won on the doorsteps of Britain. But when it comes to how the parties are perceived and how their brands are burnished or tarnished, politicians now have to pay attention to a variety of audiences using many different formats – and be prepared to defend themselves down to the smallest detail. For smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens, this may yet be where they come unstuck.
Rob Newman
HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS Which One is Zayn?
The Green Party won the award for either the best or worst Party Political Broadcast ever with “Change the Tune”, a film featuring a boyband of David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage lookalikes.
The Old Master Returns
Tony Blair entered the election campaign with a speech backing Ed Miliband’s position on Europe, saying that Ed had shown “real leadership” in refusing to increase uncertainty for business by backing calls for a referendum.
Out of the Mouth of Babes
The old line goes that you should never work with children or animals. Having survived an encounter with a lamb in his Witney constituency, David Cameron must have felt brave going to Bolton to launch his pledge on Sats resits. Six year old Lucy Howarth soon proved his confidence misplaced by placing her head on the desk, in a move which swiftly went viral on social media.
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LABOUR MANIFESTO LAUNCH
13
Ed Miliband and the Shadow Cabinet are expected to launch Labour’s election manifesto.
CONSERVATIVE MANIFESTO LAUNCH
14
The Conservatives are scheduled to launch their manifesto, parts of which were still being rewritten over the Easter weekend.
UKIP MANIFESTO LAUNCH
15
UKIP’s Nigel Farage will launch his Party’s election manifesto at an event in Essex.
OPPOSITION LEADERS DEBATE
16
The BBC General Election Leaders’ Debate will take place, featuring a debate between the five opposition party leaders moderated by David Dimbleby.
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK
EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE POLLING REPORT
Harry Spencer
AND LOWLIGHTS AHIGHLIGHTS POLITICAL BRANDING CRISIS?
Two weeks into a 6 week election campaign, and the polling deadlock remains in place. A few key themes have emerged: ■■
The Ground Game. The Lib Dems may be fighting the General Election as 57 by-elections, but they aren’t the only ones. Labour in particular, is putting huge emphasis on its ground game making the difference in a tight election – the limited evidence so far, seems to show Labour does have a better ground operation, and that this is directly linked to strength in the marginal constituencies.
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Will smaller parties be squeezed? So far in the campaign, UKIP and the Greens have both lost a little of their support, chiefly to the larger parties – and both failed to gain much momentum from the TV debate. If either UKIP or the Greens can reverse this trend, it could have a big impact on the outcome of the election.
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The balance between negativity and positivity. This week, the campaign has taken a real turn towards negative attacks, exemplified by Michael Fallon’s recent criticism of Ed Miliband. Legitimate or not, the impact of such interparty sniping is unpredictable – rather than reaping the benefit of a discredited opponent, this could end with the Conservatives and Labour successfully discrediting each other, to the benefit of other parties. False dawns. As three polls showed Labour moving into a larger lead this week, this is a reminder that polling surges can appear and disappear very suddenly. There is good reason to be sceptical of any such surge, given that the parties have been essentially tied since the start of the year. This could change, but unless there is overwhelming evidence to suggest it has, remain sceptical.
71% 59%
Percentage of voters reporting contact from the Conservatives and Labour in ten Conservatives/Labour marginal constituencies surveyed on behalf of Lord Ashcroft. Surveys were conducted between 28 March and 4 April and included 10,006 adults in total.
Marketing a political party to the electorate used to be comparatively straight forward; both Labour and the Conservatives boasted well established brands which varied little regardless of where in the country they were campaigning. The decline in support for both the main political parties has made the task faced by the Conservative and Labour leaderships in reaching out to voters far more challenging. On the right the Conservatives are confronted with the problem of reaching out to core-voters tempted by UKIP and swing voters in the marginals. Meanwhile Labour must stem the flow of some of its traditional supporters to the SNP and Greens. It is no coincidence that as the main parties have struggled to reboot their national brands, they have also faced competition from minor parties with clearer brand identities which appeal to narrow groups of voters. With national political branding counting for less, individual candidates have come to the fore. In the past five years we have seen highly effective campaigns which owe far more to the personal brand of individual politicians, such as Alex Salmond, George Galloway and Nigel Farage, than to that of their respective parties. The main parties are now seeking to follow suit. Local campaigns emphasise the attributes of constituency candidates, while the Conservatives in particular have been eager to link their national campaign back to the perceived leadership strengths of David Cameron.
Benedict Surtees
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0203 047 2466 gurpreet.brar@edelman.com
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK