COVER STORY
Central Government Will Go Regional
The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections 2014 are expected to go against the Congress. However, they will not swing in favour of the BJP. This will pave way for a PM not belonging to either of the parties. By A. Hameed Yousuf
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COVER STORY Security To All Is A Must
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My vision is of fearless Indians in India. That is the kind of country I want to build. Mr. Rahul Gandhi recently stated while interacting with tribal youths in Maharashtra.
ongress Vice President and the prospective nominee for the PM post Mr. Rahul Gandhi recently stated that he wants a fearless and safe India. Interacting with tribal youths in Maharashtra he said whether he becomes the Prime Minister or not is immaterial but what matters is that all Indians, including women and youth, feel it is their country. He wished there were not even one youth who says he is afraid in his own country. “My vision is of fearless Indians in India. That is the kind of country I want to build.” His statement is both a confession about a still insecure India and a determination for making it better and safe. A country unable to instil a sense of patriotism and security among its citizens, whatever their number may be, cannot be worse. One is afraid if India can be counted as a nation where people do not fear about their lives and properties or where people do not feel that opportunities for development and their rights are denied to them. It is not only the marginalized, subjugated and deprived tribal people who face such a situation. Rather the same is true to some of the religious minority communities. Muslims are the largest minority, so, their share in
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deprivation too is the biggest. Were their heads not counted on election eve they would have not got the little attention they do now and then. Due to the opportunistic behaviour of political parties with Muslims, characterised by election manifesto promises and lip service, they have lapsed in a worse condition compared to even Dalits. The community is preoccupied with security issues. And only the nations enjoying full security to their lives and properties can think about their economic, educational and social welfare. As for Muslims in India, ensuring security tops the list of their priorities. An insecure man is unlikely to think of leading a luxurious life or of upgrading life standards. Development is the second priority of Muslim in India; safety, security, justice and their identity issues have been on top of their agenda ever since the independence of this Nation. No wonder that security and reservation-based development are the main issues which minorities consider while casting their votes. From statistical point of view Muslims assume significance in the arithmetic of politics. So, almost every party shamelessly— shamelessly because they are still unable to do it even after six decades of independence— announces it will guarantee a safe and a secure India! Rahul’s recent statement is just a case in point. For the first time, the BJP has been organizing crowds at Modi’s election meetings in various parts of the country by booking trains, buses and vehicles to show the media and
COVER STORY
Muslims have the capacity to swing the results in favour of any party they desire, goes the conventional wisdom. Muslims have been best described as ‘king makers’ in the lexicon of Indian politics.
the people that there is a Modi wave. How can it be possible for a leader, however popular to hold large rallies in different parts of the state where the same people have been seen at gatherings time and again! It is understandable that there may be a few large gatherings in BJP bastions but to effectively orchestrate the presence of large crowds is an attempt by the BJP to get additional mileage when the time for voting comes. BJP has planned Modi’s rallies well and successfully marketed Modi brand in the urban areas. They want to present a picture of an effective Modi wave. Obviously those who are fencesitters and those who are staunch BJP supporters will be forced to believe wrongly that there is a massive wave in favour of the BJP, with Modi as the mascot of the party. If the BJP is so confident of a wave then it should made Modi stand in the elections from places other than Varanasi and Gujarat, and from where BJP generally did not make a good show in previous Lok Sabha elections. This would prove that its claims of a Modi wave is not hollow and show its electoral power by defeating stalwarts from other parties. According to the view of some analysts, regional satraps such as Mamta Bannerjee, Mayawati and Nitesh Kumar are wary of joining either the Congress or the BJP. This
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may be because they harbour prime ministerial ambitions. So observers say, that in the event of the parties of such leaders get sizeable seats in the elections, they could be supported from the outside to form a government at the centre by the Congress, to keep the communal forces at bay. Muslims, The King Makers Muslims have been best described as ‘king makers’ in the lexicon of Indian politics. Owing to an absence of true leadership and a united voice, this second largest majority of India is yet to see any Prime Minister coming from among them. However, it is not so divided as to lose its importance completely. They have proven their electoral importance time and again in the past and as recently as in the last UP Assembly election and more significantly in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections they were the real king makers. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls too they are not going to play a different role. They are in a sizeable population in some very crucial states like Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir. These states have a total of 320 Lok Sabha constituencies which is more than the magic figure of 272 for a majority in the house of total 543 Lok Sabha members. Muslims have the capacity to swing the results in favour of any party they desire, goes the conventional wisdom. It will be interesting to see how Muslims of these states exercise their franchise this time around.
COVER STORY Vacuum To Be Filled By Third Front
In fact, projection of Modi as the PM nominee from the BJP is indirect declaration that the party seeks polarization of votes on communal grounds. If the BJP is so confident of a wave then it should made Modi stand in the elections from places other than Varanasi.
We are being forced to believe that a Modi wave will not only sweep the UPA from the whole country but also prepare a fertile ground for the lotus to grow. However, this is not the full truth. The anti-incumbency factor may work against the UPA but it will do little for the BJP-led coalition. The situation is that the Congress may lose but not for the victory of the BJP. In this squabble for power the voice of a non-BJP and non-Congress front will be audible. Then from Mayawati and Arvind Kejriwal to Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh there are many more names other than Modi or Rahul Gandhi. Regional leaders have come to fill the vacuum created due to decreasing popularity of the national level, so-called ‘secular’ and ‘communal’ parties. If we have a look at the present condition of the parties in the states mentioned above, we can easily conclude that regional parties therein have an edge over the national ones. In addition, the Muslim community which is in a position to influence the outcomes in majority of the seats and which is fed up with the Congress will explore other ‘secular’ alternatives instead of voting for the ‘communal’ BJP. Interestingly in all these states there are big regional parties like
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Trinamool in West Bengal, JD-U and RJD in Bihar, YSR Congress and AIMIM in Andhra Pradesh, JD-S in Karnataka, SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh, IUML in Kerala, PDP in J&K and AIUDF in Assam. We should not forget in this context the emerging AAP which is expected to come up with some notable performance in many states other than New Delhi. Regional Powers After cleansing of the Left front Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is holding 19 out of the total 42 seats in West Bengal. In UP, out of the total 80 seats 43 are held by the SP and the BSP. Of the total 48 seats in Maharashtra 22 seats are held by regional parties like NCP, Shiv Sena and others. In Bihar 26 seats of the total 40 are occupied by regional straps like JD (U), RJD and IND. In Andhra Pradesh though the Congress occupies the majority of the total 42 seats, the Telangana factor and the YSR Congress led by Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy may spoil its game. The situation will go in favour of the regional stalwarts. Adding to its worries, the state Chief Minister from the Congress Mr. Kiran Kumar Reddy rebelled on Telangana issue only to float his own party. So, in Andhra the Congress may lose majority of the 25 seats of Seemandhra due to its favouring Telangana statehood. In spite of
COVER STORY
Most recently, Aam Aadmi Party chief Mr. Arvind Kejriwal has put before the world the realities which the BJP wants to keep secret. Unbiased persons have repeatedly exposed the socalled development model of Gujarat.
gifting Telangana people a separate state it will be in trouble in the 17 seats of Telangana region too. More worryingly, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) might go with the BJP. It will be an interesting scenario in the state to wait and watch. However, for the BJP, which could not open its account in 2009, it may be an opportunity to win a couple of seats in Andhra Pradesh!
Bihar are as a whole satisfied with Nitish’s government and there is no reason that they should think about other parties especially when the BJP has established its image as a party of destruction. The terror strikes that Bihar witnessed after divorce between BJP and JD-U has been seen more as BJP’s destructive activity than a failure of law and order of the state under Nitish.
As for the Karnataka, there the BJP had startled everyone in the 2009 elections by winning 19 out of the total 38 seats. However, if last year’s assembly election is any indication then the party is expected to bite the dust leaving the ground in favour of the Congress. So, there are chances for the regional parties in the state which they would never like to miss.
West Bengal is expected to remain with Mamata Banerjee. Can the left parties regain their lost support among the public? This is something interesting to see. Shahi Imam of Delhi’s Jama Masjid Syed Ahmed Bukhari has lauded her work for the minorities in West Bengal, and said she would make a better prime minister for secular India than others. Bukhari also hoped that Banerjee would not go for a post-poll alliance with the BJP.
I n Bihar, there will be division of secular votes between N i t i s h Kumar’s JD-U and the UPA— comprising Congress and Lalu’s RJD. For the BJP the alliance w i t h Paswan is not going to be any match to its alliance with the JD-U as far as election results are concerned. People of 21 EASTERN CRESCENT | APRIL 2014
“After going through the details of the work that she has done for the development of minorities and Muslims in the state, I personally feel India needs a secular leader like her who believes in work and not lip service,” Bukhari said.
Choosing From Among The Secular Interestingly, with the exception of a few, like the Congress all the regional parties claim to be secular. On the other hand, the BJP and the Shiv Sena have been openly indulging in communal politics. If the BJP, which would be
COVER STORY
The major portion of the Muslim votes will go to the BSP, the leader of which would send shudders in the minds of the criminals and communalists. Yes, Congress is a claimant of Muslim votes but it is unlikely to attract much votes.
a leading party in the so-called war against corruption, has given the tainted Yeddyurappa of Karnataka an LS ticket and is not shy of keeping close eye to the corruption tainted Reddy brothers of the state, it surely will not have any moral ground to fight elections on anti-corruption agenda. It belies the claim by the party that it will fight for development of the country. Unbiased persons have repeatedly exposed the so-called development model of Gujarat. Most recently, Aam Aadmi Party chief Mr. Arvind Kejriwal has put before the world the realities which the BJP wants to keep secret. In fact, projection of Modi as the PM nominee from the BJP is indirect declaration that the party seeks polarization of votes on communal grounds. The image of a pro-development Modi is the output of media photoshopping while his communal stand is a reality. However, only time will tell if BJP succeeds in deceiving people in the name of development. We should have faith in the intelligence of people and hope they will give rein of the country in the hands of those who instead of being openly communal, are secular. A sizeable section of secular voters, weary of Congress’s mal-governance and unfulfilled promises, could have gone to the BJP, but nomination of Modi for the PM candidature has dimmed this prospect. Now, the fight has come to be between secularism and open communalism. It
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is not a fight between secularists and non-secularists. The majority of Indians who are supposed to be secular, as the media and intellectuals say, will never go for strengthening communalism. To them, a corrupt, dishonest, liar and deceiving government is the lesser evil, which should be preferably accepted, to keep away from the bigger evil of communalism that threatens the very existence of the citizens. Now, the point to be taken here is whether the voters believing in secularism will vote for the Congress, the national party, or for regional political outfits.
Uttar Pradesh, The Gateway Of Delhi? It is said that the way to power in Delhi goes through Uttar Pradesh. An outstanding performance in UP by any national party is an omen it will form the government in the center. In UP, the atmosphere is not in favour of any national party, be it the Congress or the BJP. However, in the last Lok Sabha elections both the parties had gained some of their lost grounds, they are not expected to do so again in this elections. The fate of the parties in the state is decided largely by Muslim votes who number over 20 percent of the electorate in two dozen seats in west Uttar Pradesh, including Bareilly, Badaun, Pilibhit, Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha and Moradabad. In East Uttar Pradesh,
COVER STORY
By boycotting Samajwadi Party in the elections Muslims would be again setting it on the secular track from which it seems to have derailed in view of the Delhi chair. Muslims should abstain from voting to send the message that they cannot tolerate any type of compromise with their security.
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Muslims play a decisive role in at least eight seats — Azamgarh, Bahraich, Gonda, Sarawasti, Varanasi, Domariyaganj, Gonda and Balrampur, statistics show. When Mayawati lost, the assembly elections in 2012 she did not feel hesitation in accepting that it was due to a major section of the community having gone to the SP. Yes, Congress is a claimant of Muslim votes but it is unlikely to attract much votes. Some political parties like Peace Party of India and Rashtriya Ulama Council and Aam Aadmi Party will attract some share of the secular votes in their areas of influence. The major portion of the Muslim votes will go to the BSP, the leader of which would send shudders in the minds of the criminals and communalists. T h e statue and Harijan politics of Mayawati aside, she is remembered for maintaining law and order in the state which has been rife with unrest owing to prevalent lawlessness. It is a different matter that it is this same Mayawati who is not reluctant in joining hands with the communal BJP.
This author does not believe that Muslims are gullible enough to again put trust in the SP which could not prevent the Muzaffarnagar and other riots. May be that the government was helpless in reining the powerful communalists, but Muslims should abstain from voting for it at least to send the message that they cannot tolerate any type of compromise with their security. By boycotting Samajwadi Party in the elections Muslims would be again setting it on the secular track from which it seems to have derailed in view of the Delhi chair. Mulayam Singh Yadav, had, not so long ago, won adulation of BJP leaders, declaring them a model for his party workers and saying that it was very difficult for him to order firing on the karsevaks going to demolish the Babri Masjid. But this time, he has been trying to show a soft Hindutva face of his party. Anyway, UP is more likely to go to the regional outfit BSP, which does not have effective presence in any other state. This may be a pointer that some regional parties may be expected to play a role in formation of government in Delhi. In case neither Congress nor BJP gains majority, of which the probability is the most, and these big regional parties prefer not to join either of the two existing alliances the political drama will be at its climax. Just wait and watch, a Maya, Jaya or a Mamta is not at all out of the race for the next PM in India.
COVER STORY
The Muslim community’s electoral agenda has never really progressed beyond security of life, as opposed to education, jobs and health issues.
In post-Independence India, the most prominent factor is the growth, even though too gradual, of educated middle classes among the communities of Muslims. The overall success of India’s democracy in terms of land reforms, access to education, health, social welfare expenditures, as also the ‘Open Passport Policy’ since 1980s, which opened avenues of employment for Muslims in the West Asian Gulf countries, and the implementation of the Mandal Commission Report in the 1990s, which included many castegroups of Muslims in public employment. Such developments did enhance a greater sense of inclusion, cohesion, cooperation and trust in the state and in the Constitution. (Mohammed Sajjad)
“I believe that keeping the rioters unpunished has been the biggest failure of the Indian state and of its criminal justice system. Perpetuation of threat to life and properties in the communal-religious strife has made the vulnerable Muslims less as citizens to assert for all legitimate rights and more a vote bank to be patronised and exploited by all kinds of leadership - the ‘progressives’, as well as the conservatives. Radicalisation and entry into terroristic activities is no monopoly of the Muslim minorities of India. The majoritarian terrorism of Hindu right wing…and the far Left radicalism (Maoism/Naxalism)…is also to be found….Yet the data reveal that among the people booked under the draconian laws such as the TADA, POTA, etc., a disturbingly large proportion of Muslims are the prisoners under trial.” Mohammed Sajjad, an assistant professor at AMU history department in response to an email interview by Al-Jazeera. The question was: The Muslim community’s electoral agenda has never really progressed beyond security of life, as opposed to education, jobs and health issues. How have riots limited the aspirations of the community?
“Muslim leaders reckon the community’s vote can make and unmake pretenders to 100-150 Lok Sabha seats. These seats are not to be confused with those that Muslims win. Today, there are only 30 Muslims in the Lok Sabha, just 5.5 percent of its 543 seats. As per the 2011 Census, Muslims are nearly 15 percent of India’s 1.2 billion people. Nevertheless, although Muslims in the Lok Sabha are barely a third of their share in the population, their arc of electoral influence is far greater. In 35 seats, they number around one in three voters or more. In 38 other seats, Muslims are 21-30 percent of the electorate. If the 145 seats where they are 11-20 percent are added to this, Muslim voters have the ability to influence the outcome in a whopping 218 seats. (Ajit Sahi of Tehelka) 24 EASTERN CRESCENT | APRIL 2014