Dublin Economic Monitor - Issue 32 | Mar 2023

in this issue

L ATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA

S&P GLOBAL DUBLIN PMI

MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE

ECONOMY CAN WEATHER THE STORM BUT COMPETITIVENESS CHALLENGES PERSIST

Highlights

Dublin’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.8% (SA) in Q4 2022, while the national rate fell to a 20-year low of 4.3%.

Business activity in the Capital was stable as services sector activity expanded, making up for contractions in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

The value of Dublin consumer retail spending increased by 1.2% QoQ and 6% YoY (SA), most likely driven by price increases across the economy.

Dublin Port’s throughput reduced by 4.3% QoQ, with both imports (-6.5%) and export volumes (-2.9%) contracting.

New housing commencements and completions in Dublin declined for a second consecutive quarter in Q4 2022, falling at respective rates of 8.2% and 16.1% QoQ.

Residential property prices fell by a combined 0.6% across the three months of Q4 2022, though remained up by 6% YoY.

Welcome to the March 2023 issue of the Dublin Economic Monitor

The Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. The report is produced by Grant Thornton with inputs from S&P Global and MasterCard. There are two special feature articles this quarter. The first is from Catherine Duggan, a sustainability specialist at Grant Thornton, and underlines how the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive will impact on company disclosure requirements. The second article is by Eamon Ryan, TD for Dublin Bay South and Minister for Environment, Climate, Communications and Transport. The article focusses on the community and economic benefits of Dublin transitioning to

a low carbon city.

The Monitor is divided into the following themes for Dublin:

Economy Business Developments

Retail Hospitality

Labour Market

International Rankings

Housing

Transport & Travel

For more data and insights see: www.dublineconomy.ie

The next edition will be published in June 2023.

www.dublineconomy.ie

@DCCEconDev

This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by Grant Thornton and Packed.House; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.

Dublin City Council South Dublin County Council

Fingal County Council Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council

Economy can weather the immediate storm but longer-term competitiveness challenges could restrict potential

The economy has rolled from punch to punch over the last number of years, prompting a necessarily reactionary approach to economic issues. 2023 has started with a similarly uncertain outlook. Business and consumer sentiment continues to suggest more headwinds than tailwinds. Key economic indicators are expected to slow further, including the hitherto buoyant job market. That said, Ireland is expected to narrowly avoid recession in 2023 and, relative to economic outlooks for other EU states, the UK and globally, there is reason for Ireland to be cautiously optimistic. The recent 'Windsor Framework' agreed between the EU and UK is a further positive and should contribute towards better trade conditions on the island of Ireland.

Inflation is expected to decline from recent highs over the course of the year. However, there is a risk that inflation could be stickier than expected for the first half of 2023 as ongoing uncertainty, particularly around energy costs, continues.

from 63% in H1 2022. Such sentiment around talent is concerning, and perhaps already evident in the technology sector which is experiencing job losses. As outlined on page 4 of this issue, it has been reported that the government received over 40 early warning notices regarding potential job cuts across Ireland in late 2022. While these warnings may not lead to job losses, it does demonstrate the uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Irish businesses also expect the ongoing economic situation to impact on exports and international trade. In this period last year, 37% of Irish businesses expected to increase their exports – just 26% feel the same this time around. Just 18% expect to see an increase in the number of countries they sell to in the coming 12 months, while only 24% expect to grow revenue from non-domestic markets.

The cost of doing business is a rising concern for Irish companies. Ireland is among the top three countries globally in terms of worries about energy costs, with 69% of Irish businesses now citing them as a key constraint. Labour costs are also a major concern as cited by 58% of businesses, up from 27% just two years ago.

Housing impacts on competitiveness

Increasing business fears

Grant Thornton’s latest International Business Report, which gathered the thoughts of mid-market businesses globally during the second half of 2022, has reported that only 56% of Irish businesses are optimistic about the outlook for Ireland’s economy over the next 12 months, compared to 85% in the same period in 2021. The dip in optimism is matched by a downward trend in businesses who expect revenue to increase in the coming 12 months. Only 56% of Irish businesses are expecting an increase in comparison with 60% in H2 2021 and 77% in H1 2022. The report also finds that just 58% of businesses are expecting to increase investment in talent over the coming 12 months. This has declined

Housing has long been identified as a key competitiveness constraint. The extent to which this is now impacting on economic performance has been outlined in Ibec’s January 2023 ‘Better Housing, Better Business’ report1 which noted that in a CEO survey, over 70% of companies identified the availability of housing for staff as a challenge to their business operations in 2023, with 30% identifying it as a major challenge. Over 27% of businesses identified the impact of housing availability on employees as one of their top 3 external priorities for their business. Ibec has cited an inadequate supply of affordable housing as the single largest impediment to attracting and retaining talented workers, without whom business investment and expansions are not possible.

Businesses have shown great resilience over the course of the pandemic, and in the face of the most recent energy and inflation challenges. As the economy hopefully begins to move beyond the phase of reacting to shocks, key competitiveness challenges will require a concerted effort to address.

1 https://www.ibec.ie/connect-and-learn/media/2023/01/27/housing-challenges-harming-irelands-attractiveness-and-competitiveness

Dublin Labour Market Concerns Linger

Tech Woes Continue

The Big Tech slowdown of late 2022 has continued in to the first months of 2023, with a series of companies announcing job cuts globally – many of which will affect high paid jobs in Dublin. Microsoft has announced job cuts of 120 at its Leopardstown EMEA hub, while Salesforce – which is due to re-locate to its new EMEA headquarters in Spencer Place this month – is laying off 200 staff in the Capital. Further significant job losses are feared in Google, Dell, Amazon and PayPal, each of which has a Dublin operation and plans to reduce global headcount by between 5% and 7%.

Wider Labour Market Concerns

The trend of job losses in the wider economy, including tech, may be set to continue. Bloomberg reported in January that the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment had received 41 separate early warning notices of potential job cuts across Ireland in the final months of 2022. Only eight of these notices – which are issued by IDA Ireland and Enterprise Ireland – had become public as of January, thus sparking fears that further cuts may be forthcoming in the first half of 2023.

Commercial Property Side-Effects

The slowdown in the tech sector is borne out in Dublin’s commercial property market. According to CBRE, a total of 48 new commercial property transactions were closed in Dublin City in Q4, and the profile of new tenants is notable. Only two of the top 10 deals in the quarter involved tech sector companies, with the majority involving professional, financial, pharmaceutical, and public sector tenants.

Commercial vacancy rates in the Capital also increased across 2022. CBRE statistics show that the overall vacancy rate in Q4 was 11%, which increased to 14% when ‘grey space’ (offices available to sub-lease) was included. This is reflective of vacancy rates in the suburbs and Dublin 2/4 which have doubled since prepandemic Q1 2020, as depicted in the chart.

Argos Exits Ireland

The catalogue retailer, Argos, sent shockwaves through the Dublin retail sector in January with the announcement of its exit from Ireland. All 34 of its Irish stores – including nine in the Capital – will be closed by June of this year, with the loss of 580 jobs nationwide. This is a setback for the bricks-and-mortar retail sector in Dublin which is still recovering post-pandemic, and facing stiff competition from online retailers.

Re-Opening of a Dublin Institution

The Clerys building on O’Connell Street has re-opened following a comprehensive redevelopment, providing a timely fillip for the city’s main thoroughfare. The building and wider site, which housed the famed Clerys department store until its closure in 2015, has undergone a transformation to now accommodate retail, office, hotel and rooftop hospitality spaces. The iconic Clerys clock has also been restored as part of the rejuvenation of this cultural institution.

Dublin Office Vacancy Rates

Dublin Business Activity Remains Stable in Q4 2022

Dublin firms are feeling the pinch as waning demand acts to limit business activity both in the Capital and across the Rest of Ireland. Growth in the service sector was cancelled out by falling activity across manufacturing and construction in Q4. On a more positive note, firms are still taking on extra staff, perhaps hoping that any soft-patch will be short-lived.

Activity levels amongst Dublin businesses remained stable in Q4 2022, in spite of the significant challenges which the domestic and international economies are facing – most notably in the form of inflation. A PMI reading of 49.9 was recorded in Dublin in Q4, thus marginally falling below the 50 mark which separates contraction from growth. The Q4 reading ended a sequence of six successive quarters of expanding business activity in the Capital.

The final quarter of 2022 was mixed for the three main sectors in Dublin. The services sector recorded another solid increase in activity with a PMI reading of 52.7. This represented a minor strengthening (+0.2 index points) relative to the previous quarter, but contrasted significantly with the manufacturing and construction sectors where readings of 47.2 and 45.1 each signified a second consecutive quarter of contraction. A similar picture emerged across the Rest of Ireland where the services sector expanded (54.0) but the manufacturing (49.8) and construction sectors (47.7) contracted.

New orders also fell in Dublin in Q4, the first such reduction since early 2021. A reading of 48.1 was broadly aligned with the Rest of Ireland (49.2) and points to weaker new project pipelines for businesses. The surge in new orders in the immediate post-pandemic era of early 2022 hence appears to have been short-lived.

In more encouraging developments, businesses in Dublin and across the country continued to create jobs in Q4. Employment levels in the Capital rose for an eighth consecutive quarter with a PMI reading of 52.3. This was marginally stronger than the rest of Ireland (51.5), and underlines ongoing resilience within the labour market.

Dublin Retail Spending Reaches Steady State Post-Pandemic

MasterCard Total Retail Sales Index (SA)

Dublin retail spending remained broadly stable in Q4 2022, in spite of concerns surrounding inflation and its impact on disposable incomes. Growth rates in Dublin retail spending of 1.2% QoQ and 6% YoY (SA) are in line with typical retail activity levels for the Capital, and represent a more ‘normalised’ level of activity compared to the quarters immediately following the pandemic. Nonetheless, inflation – which eased but remained at a high level nationally across the quarter according to the CSO – is a pressing issue and likely contributed significantly to the increasing value of retail expenditure amongst Dublin consumers.

On a QoQ basis, the growth rate in retail spending of 1.2% reflected a modest slowdown relative to growth

rates of closer to 2% in early 2022. The most significant growth in Q4 2022 was in Entertainment where sales expanded by 4.6% QoQ. This was a weaker rate of growth than in each of the previous five quarters, yet underlined the lingering appetite for hospitality amongst consumers in Dublin. Household Goods sales also remained on a promising trajectory with growth of 1.6% QoQ in spending on big-ticket domestic items. Growth rates for expenditure on Discretionary goods and Necessities were less significant, yet positive at 1.1% and 0.8% QoQ respectively. The prominence and unrelenting expansion of sales via eCommerce platforms also continued in Q4, with growth of 1.5% QoQ.

METHODOLOGY

A

cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. MasterCard SpendingPulse™ does not represent MasterCard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by MasterCard Advisors, the professional services arm of MasterCard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and

Dublin Retail Sales Value Index (SA) Q4 2022

Ireland Dublin

Dublin lags ireland in tourist spending growth

Despite the global recovery in tourism in 2022, which saw Dublin Airport report that passenger numbers in Q4 had returned to 96% of pre-pandemic Q4 2019 levels, spending by visitors to Dublin stagnated (-1% QoQ) in the quarter. This disappointing outturn is at odds with the national level where spending grew by 3.7% QoQ, and followed another minor reversal in Dublin spending (-0.5% QoQ) in Q3.

Declining expenditure amongst American visitors to the Capital appears to be the main contributory factor. Spending by visitors from that market dropped by 6.8% QoQ in Q4, which is at odds of growth of 9.4% nationally. Such a contraction for Dublin may be an initial sign of a slowdown or recession in this key market.

Spending by visitors from China also slowed sharply in Q4, and reversed in the case of Dublin (-1.9% QoQ), further suggesting that long haul tourism is experiencing the most substantial challenges.

The final quarter of 2022 was far more encouraging in terms of QoQ spending growth from Dublin’s other key tourist markets – notably the UK (+17.6%), Germany (+15.7%) and France (+8.7%). Spending growth accelerated in each instance, and exceeded the equivalent rates at the national level.

2022 proved to be a mixed year for retail spending by visitors to Dublin, with QoQ growth of over 5% in each of the first two quarters being followed by minor reversals in Q3 and Q4.

Signs of Easing Inflation

Inflation has been a dominant economic theme over the past 18 months and has significantly affected consumers’ disposable incomes. Ireland’s inflation rate, depicted in the chart, reached a peak of 9.2% in October 2022 but has since shown signs of easing. The rate of 8.2% in December, which was influenced by slowing growth in energy prices, is a sign of initial progress. Further reductions in the coming quarters may be expected, especially if the ECB continues to increase interest rates.

Irish Consumer Price Index, December 2020December 2022

Dublin and Ireland Tourist Spend by Origin - Q4 2022 (SA)

Hotel occupancy broadly stable in early 2023

Dublin Hotel Supply & Occupancy Rates (SA)

Occupancy rates at Dublin hotels remained broadly stable across Christmas and into the New Year. Over 81% of rooms (SA) were occupied in the Capital in January, in line with pre-pandemic norms and likely influenced by the accommodation of refugees and asylum seekers. This represented a modest decline of 2 percentage points (pp) MoM, but a 27.7pp increase from January 2022 - the last month in which most Covid-19 restrictions applied. Average Daily Rates for rooms in Dublin also remained steady in January at €175 (SA). This was above medium-term averages but below the September 2022 peak of €196.

Dublin hospitality remains buoyant in February

The Dublin hospitality sector remained buoyant in February 2023 in spite of cost of living pressures on consumers' disposable incomes. The volume of seated diners at Dublin restaurants stood above the 2019 baseline (+59.4%) in the month, thus underlining the ongoing robust demand in the sector. This followed a strong Christmas period, though the volume of seated diners has been on a gradual downward trend from the peaks of early 2022. The continuation of the reduced VAT rate of 9% for hospitality to August of this year is a positive for the sector, and will be expected to support demand over the busy summer period.

The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive brings new era for disclosures

Catherine Duggan Head of Sustainability –Financial Services Advisory, Grant Thornton

The world is using resources faster than they can be replenished and the consequences of this behaviour are widespread, long-term and a threat to ‘business as usual’. Three years into the UN designated ‘Decade of Change’, we are witnessing an increase in the urgency and demand for action.

The European Green Deal

The EU is at the forefront of integrating sustainability considerations into policy decisions through the European Green Deal introduced in 2019, a flagship growth strategy aiming to make Europe the first climateneutral continent by 2050. One of its most ambitious objectives was to improve stakeholder accessibility and quality of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) information through the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). Dublin companies can best prepare themselves for these upcoming changes to their operating and reporting environment by building awareness, understanding data requirements and considering how sustainability is incorporated into their business model. In time, the CSRD will help to bring sustainability reporting on par with financial reporting.

The CSRD aims to ensure that companies publicly disclose adequate information about the risks, opportunities and impacts of their activities on people and the environment. It is viewed as a game changer, the first step in addressing challenges such as coherence and integration of reporting standards (the ‘alphabet soup’), ensuring comparability and making reporting mandatory as well as auditable. It will apply to an estimated 50,000 large companies, as well as listed SMEs, with a phased introduction from FY 2024. Companies across Ireland

and the EU will need to determine who within their organisation will take ownership of sustainability, ensuring cross functional input. This will likely require upskilling and potentially hiring new talent.

In time, the CSRD will help to bring sustainability reporting on par with financial reporting

A mind-set shift from traditional reporting

Within the CSRD reporting on sustainability matters is mandated under the ESRS (European Sustainability Reporting Standards). The ESRS architecture will include cross-cutting, topical and sector level reporting. Undertakings producing sustainability statements under ESRS will be required to disclose using the principal of “double materiality” (both financial and impact) across ESG topics such as climate, human rights and anticorruption. Companies will use the ESRS framework to disclose information as part of their management report, giving users an integrated view of their impact and performance on ESG factors. The level of disclosure envisaged will require a mind-set shift from traditional reporting and will be both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This includes elements around the undertaking’s governance process, strategy, impacts and risks, targets and future action planning around sustainability. An undertaking needs to include both its own operations and its value chain when reporting under ESRS.

Beyond meeting mandatory obligations, CSRD presents an opportunity to use the required disclosures as a catalyst to better understand the impacts of sustainability on businesses and to embed these considerations into future proofing and resilience of their strategy. CSRD is a new era and Dublin’s companies will have to maintain a sharp focus on it from now on.

Tight labour market reflected in low unemployment

Dublin's unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 4.8% (SA) in the final quarter of 2022. This reflected a minor decline of 0.1 percentage points (pp) QoQ, and a more significant reduction of 0.5pp YoY as labour and skills availability continued to be challenges for employers in the Capital. The unemployment rate across Ireland was even lower in the quarter, standing at 4.3% (SA). This was the lowest rate since the early 2000s and was driven by a QoQ reduction of 0.5pp.

Industry and construction drive dublin

Total employment in the Dublin economy continued to rise in the final months of 2022 as job creation increased across a number of sectors. Over 768,000 Dublin residents (SA) were in employment in Q4. This was 1.1% or 8,000 higher than Q4 2021. Industry and construction were the main drivers with YoY expansions in employment of 5.6% and 20.9% respectively. Services employment declined YoY, mainly due to a contraction of 2.7% in the public sector where 4,400 fewer residents (-4.4%) were engaged in the human health services sector in Q4 2022. Private services employment was largely stable at +0.7% YoY, though ICT - which covers the tech sector - recorded a contraction of 7.3% (6,600 jobs) YoY.

Dublin labour market job postings record decline

Dublin job postings on the Indeed website in February 2023 fell marginally, yet remained far in excess of the 2020 baseline. The total volume of postings stood 25.7% above February 2020, though this had declined (-16.7 percentage points) from the November 2022 peak of 42.4%. This aligns with S&P Global PMI data (see page 5) which shows that Dublin businesses are still creating jobs but at weakening rates. Job postings across the rest of Ireland remained on a different trajectory in February, standing almost 110% above the 2020 baseline. This points to a more acute mismatch between opportunities and labour availability outside Dublin.

Demand for healthcare professionals reflected

Dublin job postings related to the health sector rose to become the top category in February 2023, according to data from Indeed. The volumes of postings for healthcare assistants and registered nurses both rose YoY, reflecting the high demands on the health system in winter 2022/2023. Healthcare assistants were most in demand in Dublin in the month, followed by cleaners and registered nurses. Postings related to sales and aftersales also remained in demand at the start of the New Year. Sales assistants, retail sales associates and customer service representatives all featured in the top 10 most common postings in the month.

International Rankings Highlight Dublin as a Leading European Region

Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table opposite).

The Best Small Region in Europe for a Fifth Consecutive Year

Dublin has been ranked as the best-in-class of small European Cities and Regions of the Future for a fifth consecutive year, according to fDi Intelligence. The Capital also climbed to third position of major European cities of the future. The strong performances were based on Dublin’s economic potential (ranked 1st in Europe), FDI strategy (2nd) and business friendliness (4th). The report highlighted robust inbound capital expenditure of $25.6 billion in the five years to 2022, and stated that “the region is Ireland’s economic powerhouse and benefits from the city of Dublin’s financial centre, talent pools and business infrastructure”.

Improving Environment for Women Entrepreneurs

Dublin has been ranked 23rd of 55 cities globally for its ability to attract and support high-potential women entrepreneurs, according to Dell Research. The Capital’s mid-table ranking belies the progress made since the benchmark year of 2017 when it placed in 34th position. The city recorded the third-highest 'momentum' score which highlights the most improved locations since 2017. It also ranked 7th on the list of most advanced cities for women entrepreneurs in technology, and 8th for gender equality in leadership in the tech sector. The talented workforce available in this sector was specifically

flagged as an advantage in Dublin in the rankings which were topped by London, New York and San Francisco.

A Hub for Digital Nomads

Dublin has been named as one of the top European destinations for digital nomads in 2023. Holiday rentals marketplace, HomeToGo, placed Dublin in 5th position in its 2023 Workation Index of more than 150 cities. The Capital performed well on metrics related to co-work spaces and vacation rental prices for workers seeking destinations to combine work with a vacation. Dublin’s lowest score was for ‘things to do’, which chimes with the InterNations findings below. The Portuguese cities of Lisbon and Porto topped the ranking, with Limerick (70), Belfast (87) and Cork (128) all featuring.

Quality of Life Challenges for Expats

Despite the progress made in certain areas, Dublin has been ranked in 37th position out of 50 cities worldwide by expats for travel, health and cost of living. Most notably, the InterNations ranking placed Dublin in 47th position for quality of life, due to its poor performance on health and well-being (50th), travel and transit (46th) and leisure options (45th). Healthcare was particularly problematic with almost four in ten expats unhappy with its availability in Dublin, and 42% dissatisfied with the quality of medical care. The Capital’s rankings were stronger for career prospects (2nd), work culture and satisfaction (4th) and local friendliness (10th). The city was described as “a great place for expats to work, a hard place for them to live” in the rankings which placed Valencia in top position.

DUBLIN'S LATEST INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS

Housing market records strong end to 2022

Dublin Residential Property Transactions (SA)

Activity levels in the Dublin residential property market surged in December 2022. Over 3,000 transactions (SA) were recorded in the Capital in the month, representing MoM and YoY growth rates of 30.4% and 69% respectively. This was an unexpected outturn given recent house price growth and interest rate hikes. Transaction levels in Dublin increased by 21.9% across the full year of 2022 to stand at 24,864. At the national level, transaction levels also increased in the year, rising by 12.7% to 76,444.

Dublin residential prices post minor declines

Residential property prices in Dublin fell in the final quarter of 2022. The price index for the Capital declined by a combined 0.6% across the three months of Q4 to stand at 150 in December. This is a positive development for potential housebuyers who are currently facing saving and affordability challenges from the rising cost of living and interest rate hikes. On a YoY basis, prices in the Capital remained up by 6% in December, though this was the slowest rate of growth in 18 months. In contrast, prices outside Dublin continued to grow MoM and YoY in December, with respective rates of 0.7% and 9.3%.

Residential rents rise across all areas of dublin

Dublin Open-Market Residential Rents, Q4

Residential rents for advertised properties continued to rise across the Dublin region in Q4 2022, according to data from Daft.ie. Monthly open-market rents increased across all six areas of the Capital – with the strongest QoQ growth rates of 3.5% and 3% recorded in the City Centre and South City respectively. On a YoY basis, rents were also up – by between 10.6% in the West County and 14.9% in the City Centre. South County Dublin remains the most expensive area with open-market rents of more than €2,500 per month. The tight housing supply in the Capital suggests further rent increases may be expected in 2023.

New housing supply declines QoQ in Q4 2022

Dublin House Commencements & Completions

New residential commencements and completions in Dublin declined for a second consecutive quarter in Q4 2022 yet remained up YoY. Fewer than 2,500 new units were started in the quarter, representing a decline of 8.2% QoQ. Completions fell at a more significant rate of 16.1% QoQ to stand at 2,340 (SA). This was the lowest quarterly volume in 2022. Fewer new units were commenced in Dublin in 2022 (9,647) than in 2021 (10,936), and this is concerning given the affordability issues and severe shortages of accommodation available for those living in or moving to the Capital.

Public transport usage increases for eighth consecutive quarter

Public Transport Million Trips (SA)

Public transport usage in Dublin continued to recover in the final quarter of 2022. A total of 57.8 million journeys (SA) were undertaken on the Capital's public transport system in Q4 - the eighth consecutive quarter in which usage rose. Growth of 4.4 million trips (8%) QoQ was primarily driven by an expansion of 2.5 million journeys (7.3%) on Dublin Bus. Each of the Luas (+800,000 journeys), Irish Rail (+600,000) and Bus Eireann (+400,000) also contributed positively. Total usage in the quarter was back to over 92% of the pre-pandemic peak of Q4 2019.

Road traffic volumes at pre-pandemic levels

Traffic volumes on the Dublin road network were largely aligned with pre-pandemic levels in February 2023. An average daily traffic count of over 687,000 journeys (SA) was recorded on eight main thoroughfares in the Capital in the month. This was in line with the same period of 2022, and showed an increase from the traditional trough of the Christmas period. Peak morning and evening traffic volumes were notably down YoY in February, declining by 3.9% and 3.1% respectively. This suggests that more peak time commuters are avoiding road journeys than a year ago, potentially choosing public transport alternatives or working from home instead.

Dublin Average Daily Traffic Count '000s (SA)

Airport passenger numbers record surprising decline

Dublin Airport Passengers '000s (SA)

Dublin Airport passenger numbers surprisingly fell in Q4 2022. Over 6.4 million passengers (SA) passed through the airport in the quarter, which included the busy Christmas season. Despite growth of 2 million passenger journeys (+44.3%) YoY, a QoQ reduction of 18.7% passenger journeys was recorded. This may be a reflection of the rising costs of air travel combined with slowing economic activity in key inbound tourist markets such as the UK and US. While passenger throughput at the airport was relatively subdued in Q4, DAA is proceeding with plans to recruit 500 additional staff as activity levels normalise post-pandemic.

Port activity reduces further in Q4 2022

Dublin Port Tonnage Million Tonnes (SA)

The volume of throughput at Dublin Port declined both QoQ and YoY in Q4 2022. A total of 8.9 million tonnes (SA) of cargo was handled at the port in the quarter, representing reductions of 4.3% QoQ and 1.9% YoY. Imports declined to the greatest extent QoQ in Q4 (-6.5%), though exports - which are vital to the Dublin and Irish economies - also fell back in the quarter (-2.9%). Activity at the port fell QoQ in three of the four quarters in 2022, and this is likely a reflection of both the weakening global trade environment and economic issues in the UK, which is one of Ireland's largest trade partners.

SOURCE: CSO & DUBLIN AIRPORT. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY GRANT THORNTON.

Transitioning to a low carbon city offers community and economic benefits

Eamon Ryan TD for Dublin Bay South and Minister for Environment, Climate, Communications and Transport

Under our Climate Law, we are bound to reduce our overall emissions by 51% by 2030, moving to net zero by 2050. Dublin, as our capital city, has an important part to play in meeting those targets.

As both a Dublin City TD and Minister, I see a number of key areas we need to focus on in the coming years to meet those targets and where the opportunities lie to improve our city and make it a really attractive place to live, work and visit.

Addressing transport challenges

In Dublin we currently face two massive challenges –climate and gridlock. Changing how people move around the city is critical to addressing both those challenges.

The need for fast action is clear as despite a brief fall in transport emissions due to Covid restrictions, they are

starting to rise again. This will not be easy as it means we must reverse our car-based lifestyle in less than a decade. The way forward has to be one that prioritises active travel and public transport.

We recently published the 20-year transport strategy for the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) setting out how we can deliver a better transport system for the capital - one that will be cleaner, faster and better value for money.

Metro, which has been planned for 25 years, is finally happening and the proposed doubling of DART capacity and the massive expansion of the Luas network will be transformational in providing a reliable, low carbon rail network.

While these projects will be delivered over the coming decades, the really critical time for change is the next three years. Last November I launched 35 Pathfinder Projects across the country – exemplar schemes that can and will be delivered by the end of 2025 while the bigger projects are being advanced through planning.

For Dublin, this means altering the city traffic management system to radically improve the pedestrian, cycling and bus passenger environment, increasing green last mile deliveries, creating shared mobility hubs and

the pedestrianisation of College Green and surrounding streets.

I see no reason why Dublin should not be like Copenhagen or Amsterdam. We are a flat, relatively dry city where most trips are still quite short. Dublin’s new Active Travel Network Scheme will also deliver improvements for cycling but the timelines on all these projects need to be rapidly reviewed and brought forward.

Climate and energy action is crucial

Never has it been so important economically, environmentally, and socially to increase renewables and energy efficiency. Decarbonising our energy system is core to our climate ambitions and I believe Dublin can and will be at the forefront of that.

This year we will see great progress on the Dublin District Heating project which will provide clean, lower cost power to homes and businesses using heat from the Waste to Energy plant in Ringsend.

As an Island, offshore wind is our trump card, and this will be delivered in a way that also protects our marine habitats including the Dublin Bay Biosphere. The Dublin Grid upgrade by Eirgrid, which will inevitably cause some disruption in the city, will be critical to delivering on our renewable energy commitments and providing clean, cheaper and reliable energy.

The National Retrofit Plan has been incredibly successful providing supports for thousands of homes and businesses making them more energy efficient and cheaper to run, while also creating jobs. We are putting solar panels on every school in the city and examining how to upgrade our public housing schemes and buildings.

As a low-lying coastal city, Dublin is vulnerable to the risks of climate change, yet it is also well placed to build up climate resilience. Improving our flood defences, increasing green infrastructure, investing in sustainable transport and clean energy, developing compact highdensity housing and moving towards a circular economy will all help to protect us from the impacts and reduce

The need for fast action is clear as despite a brief fall in transport emissions due to Covid restrictions, they are starting to rise again. This will not be easy as it means we must reverse our car-based lifestyle in less than a decade. The way forward has to be one that prioritises active travel and public transport.

emissions, while improving quality of life.

We know that citizen engagement is key to success and the recently announced Community Climate Action scheme will help to empower people to take action in their own communities. Initiatives such as Smart Cities are central to providing the data we need to plan effectively and create a connected, more circular city.

Future Dublin

There is no denying the challenges we face in making the transition to a low carbon city. But counting ourselves out is not an option. I believe people and businesses already understand that this transition will be good for our quality of life and for the success of our economy. It may take a couple of years, but we have already done the crucial groundwork. Now it’s all about delivery – every day, every month, every year, so that we not just cut our emissions but create a capital city we can all be proud of: a decarbonised, city with cleaner air and water; with warmer homes that are cheaper to heat; where walking and cycling are safe, public transport is greener and more frequent; a city with a more circular economy; where we can look our children and grandchildren in the eye. This is the real change we need and I look forward to this future Dublin.