Fertilizer use

forecast to rise in 2024/25

The International Monetary Fund, (IMF) forecast global growth to remain stable at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, virtually unchanged from previous forecasts earlier this year. Revisions have taken place, with upgrades to the forecast for the US offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies especially the largest EU countries. For emerging market and developing economies, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities, like oil, conflicts, civil unrest and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East, Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and contrasts with upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, bolstered growth a trend supported by substantial public investment in China and India.

Global grains and oilseed markets look to be supplied with large quantities of cereals, coarse grains and oilseed crops provisionally forecast at 3.5bn/t in 2024/25. Projections of strong global crop yields continue to put pressure on commodity markets, leading to lower prices. As a result, farmers worldwide are experiencing decreased operating margins after a very positive cycle between 2020 and 2023.

‘RIGHT TO FOOD FOR A BETTER LIFE AND A BETTER FUTURE…’

The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization’s (FAO) theme, for this year’s World Food Day ‘Right to Food for a better life and a Better Future’ was chosen because it emphasizes, the fundamental human right to accessible, nutritious, affordable and sustainable food to ensure everyone's well-being and dignity. And it includes how to access food in different ways while being able to have a nutritional and balanced diet, to nourish the body. The FAO confirmed that over 2.8bn people can't afford a healthy diet so they hope to increase peoples’ knowledge about nutritious food, while helping poorer people to get access to healthy food sources.

Source: FAO, IFA

Global Fertilizer Use 1961/2–2027/28mt Nutrients

GLOBAL FERTILIZER USE TO RISE IN 2024/25

Fertilizer affordability improved in the first half of this year, compared to the previous 18 months and is expected to support a recovery in nitrogen, phosphate and especially potash consumption. Earlier in the year, the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecast global fertilizer use to rise to 203.7mt (million tonnes) Nutrients in 2024/25 and to 217.9Mt Nutrients by 2028/29.

Fertilizer Use To Slow Over The Medium Term

Thereafter, fertilizer use to expand in the medium-term, but at a lower rate of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2028 — due to nutrient use efficiency, slower growth in food production reflected in slowing population growth.

While the global outlook indicates improved fertilizer affordability, international prices do not always reflect prices paid by farmers due to exchange rate fluctuations, transport and