1.0
APPENDIX A HOUSING NEED ANALYSIS
Introduction 1.1
Housing need is a broad term which has many components. It generally refers to households lacking their own housing (or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable) who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the local housing market without some assistance. Essentially, they need help to obtain suitable accommodation and this is generally provided through social rented or increasingly intermediate tenure housing.
1.2
ODPM Housing Needs Guidance identifies the following as groups who should be recognised in an assessment of housing need: Households currently in housing which is unsuitable for their use and who are unable to afford to buy or rent in the market (backlog need); New households forming who cannot afford to buy or rent in the market; and Existing households expected to fall into need.
1.3
A detailed analysis of housing need has been undertaken and the ODPM Needs methodology has been followed. In summary, the model reviews in a step-wise process: Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: Stage 4:
1.4
Current Need Available stock to offset need Newly Arising Need Supply of Affordable Units
Table A1 summarises the different steps taken in assessing housing need and evidencing the extent to which there is a surplus or shortfall in affordable accommodation provision across Doncaster MB. Modelling has been carried out for all 21 wards and taken into account household types and property size requirements. Full calculations and assumptions for each stage are summarised in this Appendix and presented in full in the Housing Needs Technical Appendix accompanying this report.
Table A1 Step 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8
ODPM Needs Assessment Summary
Stage 1: CURRENT NEED Current occupiers of affordable housing in need plus Households from other tenures in need plus Households without self-contained accommodation equals Total current housing need (gross) A. Number who cannot afford open market owner-occupation (based on income and equity/savings) B. Number who cannot afford private rents (based on income alone) Stage 2: AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED Current occupiers of affordable housing in need plus Surplus stock plus Committed supply of new affordable units minus Units to be taken out of management equals Total stock available to meet current need equals Total current unmet housing need Times annual quota for the reduction of current need Equals annual requirement of units to reduce current need
Calculation
Base
Source
Over 1 year 1.1+1.2+1.3
2685 6727 984 10396
HNS HNS HNS HNS
70.4% 68.00%
7317 7069
HNS
Stage 3: NEWLY ARISING NEED 3.1 New household formation (gross per year) Times Proportion of new households unable to buy or rent in the market 3.2 (81.6% open market owner-occuption, 74.1% private renting) 3.3 plus Existing households falling into need plus In-migrant households requiring affordable accommodation 3.4 equals Total newly arising housing need Stage 4: FUTURE SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS 4.1 Annual supply of social re-lets (net) plus Annual supply of intermediate housing available for re-let or resale 4.2 at sub-market levels 4.3 equals Annual supply of affordable units NET SHORTFALL/SURPLUS OF AFFORDABLE UNITS pa
HNS LA HSSA LA HNS HNS
2685 0 see comments None assumed 2.1+2.2+2.3-2.4 2685 1.4A-2.5 4632 Assume 20% 0.2 2.6 x 2.7 926
74.10%
(3.1x3.2)+3.3
4.1 + 4.2 2.8+3.4-4.3
HNS
864
HNS
705 322 106 1133
HNS HNS CORE HNS
1830
SLH/CORE
6 1836 224
CORE HNS HNS
Comments There is an ongoing programme of developing affordable housing. However, as precise types/sizes of properties cannot be ascertained accurately, they are not directly factored into the model.
Stage 1: Current need Steps 1.1 and 1.2 1.5
Current households in need
The starting point for assessing housing need is to review the extent to which existing households are in need and whether they want to move to offset that need. Evidence has been gathered from the household survey questionnaire. The ODPM has identified a range of factors which should be used to assess whether or not a household is in need and these are summarised in Table A2. Analysis of survey information indicates that a total of 9,412 or 7.6% of existing households across Doncaster MBC are in housing need (as at October 2006) and wanting to move to offset that need. Of these households, 2,685 are currently living in affordable (i.e. social rented and intermediate tenure) housing and 6,727 are living in other tenures. Table A2
Summary of current housing need in Doncaster MBC
Main Category
Sub-divisions
Under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an end Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense Overcrowded according to the 'bedroom standard' model Mismatch of housing need and dwellings Too difficult to maintain Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom or wc with another household Household containing people with mobility impairment or other speial needs living in unsuitable accommodation Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have resource to make fit Dwelling amenities and condition Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have resource to make fit living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move Social needs Total Households with one or more housing need(s) As % of all households Homeless households or with insecure tenure
1.6
Frequency 586 1383 1436 2601 654 2640 64 881 2298 9412 7.6%
In terms of existing households in need: It averaged 7.6% of households across Doncaster MB; was highest in Bentley (11.7%), Central (10.8%), Stainforth and Moorends (93%) and Wheatley (9.3%) wards; and was lowest in Sprotborough (4.3%) ward; Private tenants were most likely to be in housing need (28.3%), with owner occupiers the least (7.6%) (Table A3).
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Table A3
Housing need by tenure
Tenure Private Rented Social Rented Intermediate Owner occupiers Total 1.7
% in housing need in tenure 28.3 10.2 10.8 5.2 7.6
Base 6,674 25,580 214 91,015 123,483
Overall, 19.4% of lone parent households (with 3 or more children) were in housing need, along with 10.9% of couples with 3 or more children, 10.8% of lone parents with 1 or 2 children and 11.2% of other household types (such as couples with adult children living with them).
1.8
Data Tabulations which accompany this report present a detailed breakdown of households in need by location, tenure and household type (see tabs N1 to N3). Key observations are now reported (note that the proportions relate to the total number of households expressing a particular need). Under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an end A total of 586 households were under notice to leave, had a threat of notice or had a lease coming to an end. Of the 586 households, 11.5% were in Town Moor, 11.3% in Stainforth and Moorends, and 8.4% in Central wards Most (72.1%) were private tenants, 15.7% were owner-occupiers and 12.2% social renters 17.9% were couples with children, 17.3% lone parent families, 13.1% singles, 15.6% couples only and 36% were other household types Too expensive 1,383 households were identified as being in need as they perceived their property to be too expensive. Of these households, 8.5% were in Conisborough, 8.3% Bentley and 7.3% in Great North Road wards 61.9% were private tenants and 35.3% were owner occupiers Of those who stated they were living in unaffordable accommodation, 27.6% were lone parents, 27.4% were singles under 60 and 18.2% were couples with children Overcrowding Overcrowding affected 1,436 households, of whom 16.1% lived in Central, 12.8% in Wheatley and 9.6% in Armthorpe wards Overcrowding affected households in most tenures, and of households affected by overcrowding, owner occupiers accounted for 44%, social tenants (37%) and private tenants (19%)
R40261-024 Appendix A formatted
Overcrowding mainly affected ‘other types of household’ e.g. parents with adult children living at home (78.7%), with the remainder being couples with children (11.6%) and lone parent families (9.6%). Difficult to maintain 2,601 households reported that their accommodation was difficult to maintain and were distributed across the District, but particularly evident in Finningley (7.7% of the households), Balby (7.7%) and Bentley (7.2%) wards Owner occupiers were mainly affected (75.2%), in addition to social renters (15.6%) and private renters (9.2%) 34.1% were singles, 38.1% couples and 20.6% ‘other household types’ Sharing facilities A total of 654 households were sharing a kitchen, bathroom and/or WC with another household. 9.3% lived in Central ward, 9.2% Askern Spa and 9.1% in Adwick wards Households across all tenures were sharing facilities, most notably owner- occupiers (58.3%), social renters (27.4%) and private renters (14.3%) 32.7% were couples with children and 41.3% were ‘other types of household’ Mobility impairment / special need 2,640 households stated that they were in need as a household member had a mobility impairment or special need (this was the most mentioned housing need). Again, these households were distributed across the District but 8.7% lived in Central and 7.8% in Adwick wards It was mainly an issue particularly expressed by owner occupiers (56.3%) along with social renters (33.7%) and private renters (10.1%); and affected a variety of household types including singles (32.1%), older couples (25.6%), and ‘other household types’ (20.6%). Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC Identified by 64 households as a housing need, who lived in Thorne (40.3%), Conisbrough (30.7%) and Edington and Warmsworth (29%) wards; 42.8% were private tenants; 30.7% were lone parent families, 28.3% singles, 12% older couples and 29% ‘other types of household’. Major disrepair Stated by 881 households, distributed across the District but particularly apparent in Central (15.3%) and Stainforth and Moorends (12.6%) wards It affected all tenures, notably social renters (37.5%), owner occupiers (33.2%) and private renters (28.4%) Major disrepair mainly affected all household types, most notably lone parents (21.8%), singles under 60 (20.3%), and ‘other household types’ (19.3%).
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Harassment / Threat of harassment Experienced by 2,298, one of the more significant needs identified across Doncaster MB. These were distributed across the Borough, but 12.2% lived in Bentley and 11.1% in Central wards Households tended to be either social tenants (47.1%) or owner occupiers (39.3%); and were most likely to be single people under 60 (22.2%), couples with dependent children (22.1%) or lone parent families (15.9%) Step 1.3 1.9
Need from households without self-contained accommodation
ODPM guidance suggests that homeless households and those in priority need who are homeless should be included as current need, in addition to concealed households unable to meet their needs in the market. The scale of need from these types of household can be derived from statutory P1(E) returns and survey evidence. There are a range of statistics available to help estimate need from households without self-contained accommodation.
1.10
P1(E) returns for 2005 indicate a total of 3,963 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless. Of these households, 237 were classified as homeless and in priority need. In addition, a total of 388 households were classified as “homeless at home� over the course of the year i.e. the household is able to stay on a temporary basis with friends/family as an alternative to going into other forms of temporary accommodation.
1.11
The household survey provides a broader view on need from households without selfcontained accommodation. Households who said that they were previously homeless have been used as the basis for assessing the scale of need from households without self-contained accommodation. On this basis, over the past 5 years, the survey identified 4,921 households are headed by someone who had been previously homeless (equivalent to 984 per year).
1.12
It is important to factor into the modelling a robust statistic to reflect the scale of homelessness which needs to be addressed. In Step 1.3 of the model, we have therefore used the five year figure of 4,921 (984 per year), to indicate the scale of need from households without self-contained accommodation. Step 1.4
1.13
Total need and affordability testing
Total current housing need has been calculated to be 10,396 households. However, this figure needs to be adjusted to take into account income and levels of equity/savings
R40261-024 Appendix A formatted
relative to house prices. Modelling has assumed an average price of ÂŁ116,000 and a lower-quartile price of ÂŁ76,560. Entry-level prices are assumed to be Lower Quartile prices, assumed to be 66% of the average price. Overall, analysis suggests that: 70.4% or 7,317 households could not afford open market solutions to their housing need on the basis of household income and levels of equity/savings; and 68% could not afford private rents (based on household income alone) Summary of Stage 1: Current need 1.14
On balance, a total of 7,317 households are in need based on their current housing circumstances. This stage has taken into account: existing households in need, their current tenure, income, access to equity and savings; and the scale of need for affordable accommodation from households without self-contained accommodation.
Stage 2: Available stock to offset need 1.15
The ODPM model reviews the supply of affordable units, taking into account how many households in need are already in affordable accommodation, stock surpluses, committed supply of new affordable dwellings and dwellings being taken out of management (for instance pending demolition or being used for decanting). Step 2.1
1.16
Current occupiers of affordable housing in need
This is an important consideration in establishing the net levels of housing need as the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need1. A figure of 2,685 households has been derived as discussed in paragraph 5.9.
Step 2.2 1.17
Surplus stock
A proportion of vacant properties is needed to allow households to move within housing stock. Across the social rented sector, this proportion is generally recognised as being 2.0%. Stock above this proportion is generall assumed to be surplus stock. Across Doncaster MB, 2.2% of social rented stock was vacant (at 1 April 2006) and as this is around 2% indicator level, no surplus stock is assumed.
1
Housing Market Assessments Draft Guidance (ODPM, December 2005) p.40
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Step 2.3 1.18
Committed supply of new affordable units
The HSSA return for 2006 states that: For 2006/7, a total of 106 units of affordable housing are planned to be developed (of which 76 are for rent and 28 shared ownership) For 2007/8, a total of 69 units of affordable housing are planned to be developed (of which 35 are for rent and 34 shared ownership)
1.19
These units will help offset overall demand, but as specific details on location, type and size are not available, this information has not been factored into the overall model. Step 2.4
1.20
It is assumed that there are no units planned to be taken out of management, Step 2.5
1.21
Units to be taken out of management
Total stock available to meet current need
It is assumed that there are 2,685 units of social rented accommodation available to meet current need based on current occupiers of affordable housing in need. This is based on the number of households in need currently living in social rented accommodation and need to move to alternative accommodation to offset their housing need. Step 2.6
1.22
On the basis of the ODPM model, this is calculated as 4,632 units per annum. Step 2.7
1.23
Total current unmet housing need
Annual quota for the reduction of current need
It is assumed that current need reduces at the rate of 20% per year. This is a standard assumption used in needs assessment modelling suggested in ODPM/DCLG Housing Market Assessment Guidance. Step 2.8
1.24
Annual requirement of units to reduce current need
On the basis of the ODPM model, this is calculated as 926 units per annum.
R40261-024 Appendix A formatted
Stage 3: Newly arising need Step 3.1 1.25
New household formation (gross per year)
The household survey identified a total of 6,642 individuals currently living in Doncaster MB who state that they want to form a household in the next year. In a review of newly arising housing need, it is important to consider: how many people were identified in the survey who want to form new households within Doncaster MB how this translates into the actual number of new households forming by considering the likely number of people in newly forming households over what time period households are likely to form how many newly forming households are likely to require affordable housing.
1.26
Past trends in household formation rates can be used to help establish the likely scale of new household formation. Financial information obtained from the household survey can help establish the scale of need for affordable accommodation by newly-forming households.
1.27
The 6,642 individuals currently living in households across Doncaster MB who stated that they want to form a household in the next year will include younger people planning to leave the family home and people moving out of a household due to relationship breakdown. Of these individuals, there is a strong preference to remain in Doncaster MB (83.2%) and it is assumed that the vast majority of newly-forming households will remain in Doncaster MB.
1.28
A view needs to be taken on how many households are likely to be formed by these individuals. Based on past trends evidenced from the household survey, over the past five years, 7,356 households have been formed by 11,305 individuals and of these households: 46.3% were single person 51.0% were two person 2.7% were larger adult households
1.29
Based on these trends, it is assumed that the 6,642 individuals identified from the survey will form 4,322 households over the next five years (taken as April 2007 to March 2012) or 864 per year.
1.30
In summary, household survey data suggests that, over the preceding five years to October 2006:
R40261-024 Appendix A formatted
A total of 11,305 individuals have emerged to form new households A total of 7,356 new households were formed in Doncaster MB This compares with 6,642 individuals who want to form a household over the next 5 years, implying the formation of 4,322 new households. 1.31
A household formation rate of 864 per year has been assumed in the analysis, with all of these households accommodated within Doncaster MB. Step 3.2
1.32
New households unable to buy or rent in the open market
An analysis of likely income and access to financial resources including savings suggests that 81.6% of the 4,322 new households could not afford entry-level owner-occupation in Doncaster MB. This is assuming that mortgage costs no more than 3.5x expected annual gross household income, a 5% deposit is available, and assumes a lower quartile (entrylevel) price of ÂŁ76,560. A total of 74.1% of the 4,320 households (3,203) could not afford private sector rents, assuming a rent of ÂŁ350 per month and no more than 25% of gross household income is spent on rental costs.
1.33
For the purposes of analysis, the proportion who could not afford entry-level owner occupation (81.6%) is used as a basis for assessing the affordable housing requirements of newly-forming households. Hence, of the 4,322 households intending to emerge within Doncaster MB in the next 5 years, 3,527 could not afford to buy on the open market (or 705 per year). This requirement would reduce to 640 per year if the analysis was based on private sector renting, but the main report outlines concerns in relying upon the private rented
sector
to
provide
long-term,
good
quality
and
sustainable
affordable
accommodation. 1.34
Assuming that the 4,322 households will emerge over the next 5 years (taken as April 2007 to March 2012), this results in an annual new household formation of 864 per annum of whom 705 will require affordable accommodation. Step 3.3
1.35
Existing households expected to fall into need
Each year, around 322 households originating from Doncaster MB
move into social
rented accommodation from other tenures as they are in housing need. Step 3.3A 1.36
In-migrant households requiring affordable accommodation
Each year, at least 106 households move into the Borough and into social rented accommodation.
R40261-024 Appendix A formatted
Step 3.4 1.37
Total newly arising housing need
On the basis of the ODPM model, this is calculated as 1,069 units per annum.
Stage 4: Future supply of affordable units Steps 4.1 to 4.3 1.38
Annual supply of affordable units
The ODPM model considers annual supply of social relets and annual supply of intermediate housing available for sale/re-let. Allocations data have been obtained from St. Leger Homes and RSL CORE lettings data. Some RSL lettings have been made to people requiring supported accommodation but excluded from analysis as the properties are not available as general lets. Data on intermediate tenure supply was provided through CORE data.
1.39
It is important to consider variations in stock capacity by both stock designation (i.e. for general or older persons use), property size and location. A review of annual capacity has been undertaken which suggests that across Doncaster MB, there is an average overall capacity of 1,830 social rented (St. Leger and RSL) dwellings (see Table A3) in addition to 6 units of intermediate tenure dwellings. The annual average is based on: St. Leger lettings data for financial years 2003/04, 2004/05 and 2005/06 RSL stock lettings for 2003/04 and 2004/05 and 2005/06 from CORE data Intermediate tenure sales/lets for 2005/6 from CORE data. Table A3 Average annual amount of affordable (social rented and intermediate) stock available for new residents by area, designation and property size
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Ward
Adwick Armthorpe Askern Spa Balby Bentley Bessacarr and Cantley Central Conisbrough and Denaby Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Edlington and Warmsworth Finningley Great North Road Hatfield Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Stainforth and Moorends Thorne Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley TOTAL
Designation General No. Beds 1/2 3+ 35 50 16 8 13 13 26 55 31 34 26 13 102 41 105 43 15 41 10 21 8 126 24 2 28 20 9 34 40 732
2 24 8 44 28 54 30 2 51 13 4 39 29 584
Older No. Beds 1 2+ 34 18 11 6 7 9 20 8 18 8 31 4 26 7 24 16
Total
13 16 10 19 4 23 17 3 11 5 8 16 18 335
37 93 31 90 47 213 85 9 104 56 28 92 93 1836
7 12 3 6 7 9 15 2 13 18 7 3 7 185
137 41 43 108 92 74 176 187
Net shortfall/surplus of affordable accommodation 1.40
By considering the variations in supply of affordable dwellings by demand on the basis of property location, size and designation, it is possible to provide an accurate understanding of shortfalls in provision.
1.41
The total annual net shortfall of affordable accommodation is stated as 224 units per annum for the period April 2007 to March 2012 (or 1,120 for the 5 year period).
1.42
However, the actual gross shortfall (i.e. where there are absolute shortfalls by property type/designation and area) is 883 dwellings per annum. This is due to the imbalance in current affordable dwelling stock profile and identified need. Basically, the needs assessment has identified a particular requirement for smaller one/two bedroom general needs stock. However, stock available tends to be larger.
1.43
Table A4 presents the absolute shortfalls in affordable accommodation by ward, designation and property size. Red cells indicate where there are shortfalls in provision and green where there is sufficient capacity. The overall gross shortfall of 883 dwellings is
R40261-024 Appendix A formatted
offset against a capacity of 659 dwellings, resulting in the net shortfall of 224 dwellings per annum. Table A4
Absolute shortfalls by area and property type
Ward
Adwick Armthorpe Askern Spa Balby Bentley Bessacarr and Cantley Central Conisbrough and Denaby Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Edlington and Warmsworth Finningley Great North Road Hatfield Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Stainforth and Moorends Thorne Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley SUMMARY Gross shortfall Gross capacity Net shortfall by property type
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Designation General Total Beds 1/2 3+ 36 -38 36 8 46 2 30 -52 90 -12 43 -4 48 -12 11 -57
Older Net shortfall Total Beds by area 1 2+ -18 -19 -39 3 -3 45 6 -9 45 0 -12 -33 7 -8 76 -12 -1 25 10 -5 41 4 -11 -53
35 10 28 50 76 -40 35 13 39 33 54 23 40
15 -11 -4 -44 -17 -34 -30 9 -47 8 -2 -19 -1
1 -4 -5 5 6 -2 -4 2 -4 10 4 8 -2
-8 -16 -2 -7 -7 -8 -15 -1 -15 -23 -7 -2 -4
43 -21 17 3 58 -84 -15 23 -28 29 48 11 33
776 -40 736
41 -382 -340
66 -53 13
0 -185 -185
883 -659 224