Doncaster Local Housing Assessment
Final Report
May 2007 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd Generator Studios Trafalgar Street Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 2LA Offices also in: Cardiff London Manchester
T 0191 261 5685 F 0191 261 9180 newcastle@nlpplanning.com www.nlpplanning.com
CONTENTS 1.0
INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................... 2
2.0
POLICY AND STRATEGY CONTEXT ........................................................................ 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 Economy ...................................................................................................................... 2 Housing Mix ................................................................................................................. 3 Housing Numbers ........................................................................................................ 5 Total Net Provision over RSS Period ........................................................................... 6 Affordable Housing ...................................................................................................... 6 Sustainable Communities ............................................................................................ 7 Summary...................................................................................................................... 8
3.0
DONCASTER CONTEXT ............................................................................................ 9 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 9 Population .................................................................................................................... 9 Socio-economic profile................................................................................................. 9 Housing Type and Tenure ......................................................................................... 12 Employment Structure ............................................................................................... 15 House Price Analysis ................................................................................................. 18 Summary.................................................................................................................... 21
4.0
IDENTIFYING THE CURRENT HOUSING MARKET ............................................... 23 Travel to Work Data ................................................................................................... 23 Migration Patterns ...................................................................................................... 25 Future Migration Patterns .......................................................................................... 27 Migration and Travel-to-Work Summary .................................................................... 28
5.0
DEFINING LOCAL NEIGHBOURHOODS ................................................................ 29 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 29 Rural Hinterland ......................................................................................................... 32 Rural Centre............................................................................................................... 33 Peripheral Coalfield Community................................................................................. 33 Urban Core ................................................................................................................ 34 Social Suburb............................................................................................................. 35 Inner Suburb .............................................................................................................. 36 Prosperous Suburb .................................................................................................... 37 Affluent Suburb .......................................................................................................... 38 Summary.................................................................................................................... 38
6.0
UNDERSTANDING FUTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMIC ......................... 39 Understanding Housing Supply ................................................................................. 39 Stock Condition .......................................................................................................... 40 Drivers of Change ...................................................................................................... 44 Structural.................................................................................................................... 45 Locational................................................................................................................... 47 Policy Drivers ............................................................................................................. 49 Summary.................................................................................................................... 52
7.0
HOUSING REQUIREMENTS IN DONCASTER ........................................................ 54 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 54 Affordability ................................................................................................................ 55 Role of the Private Rented Sector ............................................................................. 56
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Affordable Housing Requirements ............................................................................. 56 Tenure preferences.................................................................................................... 57 Summary of affordable housing requirements ........................................................... 59 Intermediate Tenure Market, Prices and Options ...................................................... 62 Justifying the Need for Affordable Housing................................................................ 67 General market demand ............................................................................................ 68 Housing Requirements of Different Household Groups ............................................. 72 Summary.................................................................................................................... 72 8.0
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................... 74 Influencing the mix of type and tenure of housing...................................................... 74 Affordability and Housing Need.................................................................................. 78 Approach to Housing and Neighbourhood Investment .............................................. 81 Plan, Monitor, Manage ............................................................................................... 82 Typology Recommendations...................................................................................... 83
APPENDIX A......................................................................................................................... 85
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Introduction
1.0
INTRODUCTION
1.1
The Local Housing Assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the draft practice guidance for Housing Market Assessments published by Communities and Local Government (CLG), formerly the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, in December 2005. The guidance brings together the guidance on undertaking housing needs assessments and the housing market assessment.
1.2
The draft practice guidance sets out a number of stages which have been followed in this research. These are: The Current Housing Market – an analysis of the current market, key characteristics in terms of stock, socio-economic data and the active market which is evidenced by house price trends and interviews with estate agents The Future Housing Market – this section aims to understand what the future demand will be in Doncaster, where there are current hot and cold spots, how affordability will change and issues which will influence the future of the housing market in Doncaster Current and Future Housing Need – understanding gained through the Housing Needs Assessment, a comprehensive household survey in Doncaster Housing Requirements of Different Household Groups – understanding the housing needs of specific groups, gathered through the housing needs assessment
1.3
The findings of all of these stages are then brought together and inform the conclusions and recommendations which will influence further policy development.
1.4
One of the main aims of the research is to inform Doncaster’s Local Development Framework development in particular the Housing Development Plan Document in terms of the type, size and supply of future housing in Doncaster, where to target future housing resources and inform future bidding documents for external funding.
1.5
This report is set out under a number of sections: Policy and Strategy Context – this section reviews the current policy and strategy drivers which set the context for the Housing Market Renewal and Housing Needs Study Doncaster Context - this section identifies Doncaster’s key characteristics in terms of population housing tenure, stock and socio-economic characteristics
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Introduction Identifying the Current Housing Market – in this section the key findings from the analysis of migration and travel to work data are set out to help to identify the current housing market Defining Local Neighbourhoods – this section sets out the characteristics of the housing market typologies which have been identified in Doncaster Housing Supply – this section considers the past and current housing supply and issues around stock condition Understanding Supply and Demand Dynamic – provides an understanding of the future supply and demand dynamic in Doncaster and identifies issues which will need further consideration when developing the Housing Development Plan Document and other important housing related strategies Housing Market Requirements – provides evidence around the housing needs in Doncaster, affordability requirements and discussion around the general market demand in Doncaster Issues for Consideration – this section sets out the key conclusions, recommendations and the issues which will need to be addressed through the development of appropriate policies
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Policy and Strategy Context
2.0
POLICY AND STRATEGY CONTEXT
Introduction 2.1
In order for Doncaster’s aspirations to be met it has been critical that sub-regional, regional and local policies have been developed in alignment. The result is a clear hierarchy of strategies and policies across Doncaster, from a sub-regional, regional and local level, led by ‘Advancing Together’ which sets out the vision and strategic framework for Yorkshire and Humber. Economy
2.2
Doncaster is a key element of the Sheffield City Region. A number of City Region’s in the north were identified through The Northern Way which was published in September 2004. The document set out the desire and ambition for the North to accelerate economic growth and narrow the gap between the north and south. The vision set out in the Northern Way is: ‘Together we will establish the North of England as an area of exceptional opportunity, combining a world class economy with a superb quality of life’
2.3
Doncaster has strong local drivers of economic growth and it is also a key element of the Sheffield City Region. The aim of the Sheffield City Region, which Doncaster is within, is to become part of the ‘urban core’ of the Northern Way along with the Leeds and Manchester City Regions.
2.4
Doncaster is highlighted as a key influence alongside Sheffield, Chesterfield, Rotherham and Barnsley and particularly as an important logistics interchange which has the capability of serving and supporting the north and east of England. Within the CRDP, Doncaster is highlighted due to its road and rail network and the continuing success and opportunities provided through the Robin Hood Airport.
2.5
The Regional Economic Strategy ‘Ten Year Strategy for Yorkshire and Humber 20032012’ also sets the economic change agenda in Yorkshire and Humber. GDP1 in the region is currently lower than the European average, although a slight improvement in recent years has resulted in a slight narrowing of the gap in performance and showing promising trends for the future.
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Policy and Strategy Context 2.6
Doncaster is identified as an important driver of economic growth due to its strategic location and role as a transport hub, particularly identifying Robin Hood Airport and key road/rail links.
2.7
The Northern Way and the Economic Strategy both highlight the need to attract people to move to the area to meet the jobs created by the economic growth to drive the economic change which is predicted. This will only be achieved through the provision of the right housing, in neighbourhoods which have excellent access to good quality education, community facilities and a choice of cultural and leisure activities. The quality of the offer in Doncaster will be critical in its success in achieving economic change and renaissance. Housing Mix
2.8
Regional, sub-regional and local strategies identify that in order to achieve economic success it is critical that the right housing is on offer to meet needs and aspirations.
2.9
The overall market signals in the region signify a buoyant housing market, but it is identified that there is a growing imbalance between housing sub-markets. A number of strategic initiatives have identified areas of particular housing markets. The establishment of Transform South Yorkshire, one of the nine Government Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders, confirmed the level of problems in this part of the Region. As has the Green Corridor Initiative, a partnership between a number of Local Authorities which has been established to address particular issues within former coalfield communities.
2.10
Three themes for housing are established at the Regional Level: Creating Better Places – responding to the diversity of markets and improving neighbourhood infrastructure and facilities Delivering Better Homes, Choice and Opportunity – allowing people to meet their housing aspirations and improve housing condition and services Ensuring Fair Access to Quality Housing – ensuring requirements and preferences of the community are met by sensitive and appropriate housing solutions and obstacles for specific groups to access housing choices are removed
1
Gross Domestic Product –a measure of economic success
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Policy and Strategy Context 2.11
The sub-regional and local strategies adopt these broad principles.
Doncaster’s
Housing Strategy (2006-2009) also identifies another key local priority; ‘creating a new impression for Doncaster’. 2.12
For Doncaster, a number of areas are identified which will be the focus for intervention to deliver a balanced housing market. These include: Transform South Yorkshire (the Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder) – Doncaster Dearne Valley Green Corridor Kingsway Estate Six Streets – Hyde Park Willow Estate – Thorne Waterfront – Town Centre Thompson and Dixon - Edlington
2.13
These areas set out above are aligned with the six areas identified within the Core Strategy of the Local Development Framework (LDF), as principal settlements for growth, outside of the urban core. These are: Mexborough Thorne Adwick-le-Street/Woodlands Armthorpe Askern Conisbrough
2.14
Housing renewal and change will help to create a more balanced housing market providing a better mix, quality and choice of housing.
2.15
The Core Strategy for the draft LDF reflects the need to provide a mix of housing types and tenures to meet the needs of local communities. This is one of its key roles which PPS 3 identifies, particularly in relation to achieving a housing mix over the plan period. Provision is also made so that new housing development of over sixty units will need to demonstrate how they will support achieving mixed communities.
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Policy and Strategy Context Housing Numbers 2.16
In order to support economic renaissance and housing market restructuring in Yorkshire and Humber, the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) sets out the spatial framework from 2005 to 2021. The approach for South Yorkshire is one of economic, environmental and social transformation with emphasis placed on its main urban centres.
2.17
In relation to housing, the RSS sets out a number of aims: To take account of expected levels of economic growth, increased levels of migration, decreased household sizes and increased life expectancy Provide sufficient homes to house the additional households expected to form with over 15,000 new houses provided a year up to 2011, rising to over 16,000 a year from 2011 and over 19,000 a year from 2016 to 2021 Ensure new housing is managed in a way that supports the restructuring of housing markets in areas where there is low demand and increasing the amount of affordable housing across the region, particularly in areas of high need Create a better mix of housing across the region to reflect people’s different needs and make additional provision to meet the housing needs of gypsies and travellers
2.18
The RSS acknowledges Doncaster’s role as a rapidly developing logistics centre of regional and national importance because of its strong national rail and motorway network. Robin Hood Airport is a critical factor in the opportunity for economic development and regeneration in Doncaster.
2.19
Three implementation phases for housing are set out within the RSS. This means: 2004-2011 – the focus is on making use of existing allocations and potential which have already been identified. This will also be the phase for improving low demand neighbourhoods and increasing the provision of the number of affordable homes 2011-2016 – this phase will be about using the opportunity to remodel and reengineer existing urban areas and housing estates. It will also aim to change the roles of former industrial and commercial areas, realising the concept of ‘mixed use’ 2016-2021 – will further exploit the potential of second phase urban remodelling and potential extension for new or expanded settlements. This will also be the phase which will deliver a better mix of housing types and a balanced housing stock to meet modern needs
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Policy and Strategy Context Total Net Provision over RSS Period Doncaster South Yorkshire Yorkshire&Humber
2.20
2004-2011 855 3,470 15,160
2011-2016 855 3,470 16,120
2016-2021 1,080 4,080 19,120
The figures set out in the RSS (which have yet to be confirmed through the outcome of the Examination in Public) for Doncaster are comparable to the average net additions between 1998 and 2006 which stands at 840. The increased build rate is aligned to recent population projections which highlight the considerable growth expected in Doncaster and the need to support the planned economic growth. The increased build rates will help to support a step change in the economy and deliver a better mix and choice of housing required to support economic growth.
2.21
For Doncaster the annual clearance and replacement is suggested, in the RSS, to be 220 dwellings per annum. The emphasis is placed on managing the release of housing land to support rebalancing the housing market in areas which have been identified to have frail or failing markets2, ensuring that areas identified for renewal are acknowledged and their regeneration is balanced alongside other sites coming forward for development.
2.22
Creating the right housing mix is also promoted within the RSS. It sets out the need to ensure that local and sub-regional strategies help provide a range of size, type and tenure of houses to meet the needs of an area3. By 2021 the RSS aims to deliver a housing mix appropriate to meet the specific needs of the population in different parts of the region. Affordable Housing
2.23
A number of policies are set out within the RSS and draft LDF which set out the requirements for affordable housing. The RSS sets out the requirement for increasing affordable housing provision in the region in order to meet the needs of local communities4. Based on evidence from CLG standard indicator of affordability – lower quartile income and lower quartile house prices – along with monitoring carried out by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. It highlights that: On developments of more than 15 homes (or a site of more than 0.5 hectare) local authorities should seek to provide:
2
RSS Policy H2 RSS Policy H4 4 RSS Policy H3 3
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Policy and Strategy Context Over 40% affordable housing in areas of high5 need Between 30 and 39% in areas of medium need Less than 29% in areas of low need Where opportunities for the provision of new housing are generally limited to sites below the national threshold, in exceptional circumstances a lower threshold provision should be set for off site or off site contributions In rural areas where opportunities are limited, Local Planning Authorities should identify exception sites in the DPD. 2.24
The RSS goes so far as setting the level of affordable housing provision at 33% as a broad target across Yorkshire and Humber. This will be tested through the work undertaken as part of the Housing Needs Study to assess whether this is appropriate target for Doncaster or whether the findings from the study justify the need to develop specific local policies.
2.25
At a local level the Draft LDF Core Strategy sets out that the net need for affordability across the Borough is 369 units per annum (based on the 2003 Housing Needs Study), a shortfall in all but one ward. In terms of affordable housing, the Core Strategy sets out that any development over 15 units will be required to meet affordable housing needs. This study will the findings of this Housing Needs Study will inform whether the affordability requirements have changed and what level of requirement is now needed in Doncaster to meet housing needs. Sustainable Communities
2.26
Underlying the requirement for alignment of key strategies and policies is the need to create long term sustainable communities, which have a good choice of housing coupled with other factors which make neighbourhoods successful.
2.27
Improving the quality and choice of housing on offer is critical to attracting people into Doncaster. However, it is not just the housing on offer which is important, but the neighbourhoods and environment that they are within. The quality of services and facilities in neighbourhoods, e.g. education, service provision and community facilities, are key to contributing to the quality of place. Improving the quality of services, opportunities and infrastructure all contribute to the choice people make in moving to an area.
5
High, medium and low levels of affordable housing need are taken from the Regional Housing Strategy which identifies South Yorkshire as having a low level of need. R40261-025 Final Report May 2007 A
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Policy and Strategy Context 2.28
Meeting future housing needs and aspirations of a range of households will be critical to creating long term mixed communities. Summary
2.29
In summary, there is a clear hierarchy of strategies and policies driving change in Yorkshire and Humber. There is significant economic restructuring required as a result of the decline in traditional economies and as opportunities arise from the growth of existing sectors. The economic renaissance required needs to be supported by changes to the housing offer in particular areas to help improve the quality of life of current residents and also to attract new people who will help drive the changing economy.
2.30
The Draft RSS sets out the spatial framework which will underpin economic renaissance and housing market renewal in Yorkshire and Humber. Doncaster’s Local Development Framework is being developed which will set the spatial framework for Doncaster. The Core Strategy which has been developed sets a number of targets in relation to; affordable housing, developing a sustainable housing mix and density. It also sets out the principles for future growth and urban renaissance in Doncaster focussing on six principal urban areas, with a clearly defined urban hierarchy where growth is expected and where potential growth will be limited.
2.31
This study provides an understanding of housing markets and identifies issues which should influence policy development to underpin the housing market changes required to help support economic performance and deliver long term sustainable communities.
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Doncaster Context
3.0
DONCASTER CONTEXT
Introduction 3.1
This section provides a summary of the key characteristics of Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council’s (DMBC) population, socio-economic factors and housing stock. For comparative purposes, information at the regional and national level has also been included. Population
3.2
In 2003 Doncaster’s population was estimated to be 288,0006, an increase from 286,866 at the time of the Census 2001. Socio-economic profile
3.3
As the graph overleaf highlights, household composition in Doncaster is broadly in line with regional and national averages. There is however a higher proportion of married/cohabiting households with dependent children across the Borough (22.45%). Household Composition
25.00% 20.00% 15.00%
Doncaster Local Authority Yorkshire & Humber
10.00%
England & Wales
5.00%
3.4
Lone parent households: All children nondependent
Lone Parent households:with dependent children
Married/cohabiting households: All children nondependant
Married/cohabiting households: All dependent children
Married/cohabiting households: No Children
One family and no others: All pensioners
One person: Other
One person: Pensioners
0.00%
Census 2001 data on ethnic origin highlights that the main ethnic minority present in Doncaster is Asian/British Asian, representative of 1.07% of the population. Overall the Census identified that 2.31% of Doncaster’s population was from an ethnic
6
Office of National Statistics Sub-Regional Population Projections 2003
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Doncaster Context minority background. The Housing Needs Study (HNS) suggests that this is rising and 3.8% of the population is now from an ethnic minority background. 3.5
An analysis of Doncaster’s socio-economic composition has been undertaken to help develop a greater understanding of the social status of the area’s residents and the types of employment they undertake.
3.6
The National Socio-Economic Classifications (NSEC) adopted by the 2001 Census has been used to examine the socio-economic composition. One of the characteristics of successful mixed communities is a balanced socio-economic profile.
3.7
For the purposes of this study they have been grouped together into higher, intermediate and lower socio-economic bands as shown below.
Higher
Intermediate
Lower
Large employers and higher managerial occupations Higher professional occupations
Intermediate occupations
Small employers and own account workers Lower supervisory and technical occupations
Lower managerial and professional occupations
Semi-routine occupations Routine occupations
Socio Eocnomic Profile 40.0%
Doncaster Local Authority Yorkshire & Humber
35.0%
England & W ales 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Lower
3.8
Intermediate
Higher
The most noticeable element of Doncaster’s profile is the higher than average proportion of residents who fall into the lower socio-economic category (35.72%). Conversely the proportion of residents that fall into the high category (18.76%) is below the average for the region (22.98%). These two factors highlight that Doncaster
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Doncaster Context has an imbalanced socio-economic profile, with a considerable imbalance towards lower socio-economic groups. This is likely to be as a result of past economic influences towards manual labour. However, if Doncaster is going to achieve the economic growth required the challenge will be to rebalance the economic profile and skills of the Borough. 3.9
The table below provides a summary of the social grade composition of the population of Doncaster according to the household representative7 . Social Grade AB
8
C1 & C2 10 DE
3.10
9
Doncaster Local Authority
Yorkshire and Humber
England and Wales
16.9%
20.36%
23.31%
51.35% 31.71%
52.03% 27.6%
52.25% 24.44%
The most notable element of Doncaster’s profile is the under representation of residents in the highest category AB (16.90%) and the over representation of residents who fall into the lowest DE category (31.7%). The proportion of Doncaster residents in the low social grade exceeds the national average by 7.3%.
3.11
Job Seekers Allowance Claimants (September 2006)11 shows that 3.3% of Doncaster’s working age population are in receipt of JSA, higher than the Yorkshire and Humber average of 2.8%. The proportion of people claiming for over twelve months is also higher than the Yorkshire and Humber average, 17.0% compared to 14.9%. Also worthy of note is the high proportion of Doncaster residents who are unable to work as a result of sickness or disability; this was 22% at the time of the 2001 Census. This is nearly 6% higher than the national average, suggesting there is a high proportion of inactivity from Doncaster’s economically active population.
3.12
It will be important for Doncaster to increase the skills of existing residents to take up new employment growth which is generated by economic growth.
7
Using the NSEC profiles taken from Census 2001 data AB contains those employed within higher and intermediate managerial and professional occupations 9 C1 & C2 contain those employed within supervisory, clerical and junior managerial administration and professional occupations as well as skilled manual workers 10 DE contains those employed in semi skilled and unskilled occupations as well as the unemployed and those on state benefit. 11 NOMIS statistics R40261-025 Final Report May 2007 A 11 8
Doncaster Context Housing Type and Tenure 3.13
As the following graph highlights, the proportion of detached properties and flats in Doncaster is broadly in line with regional and national averages. There is a distinctly higher proportion of semi-detached properties (45%) than the national average (32%) and a relatively small proportion of flats at just 6.41% compared to regional and national averages. Housing Type 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
Doncaster Local Authority Yorkshire & Humber England & Wales
Detached
3.14
Semidetached
Terraced
Flat
The 2006 Housing Needs Study (HNS) data has enabled data to be updated for Doncaster to show current house type profile. The graph below shows that Doncaster’s house type profile has not changed considerably since the Census 2001. House Type Profile 2006 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%
3.15
ai
an ra v Ca
ow al ng
/M at
w To
Bu
so
H
ne
ou
tt e
se
d ce r ra Te
n
Fl
Se
m
iD
De
et
ac he
ta ch e
d
d
0.0%
The table below compares the house type breakdown in Doncaster with adjacent Local Authority areas. It highlights that Doncaster has a smaller proportion of
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Doncaster Context detached properties compared to other areas, combined with a higher proportion of terraced properties. 3.16
The higher proportion of detached properties in adjacent areas also has an impact on average house prices which are considerably higher in areas such as North Lincolnshire, Selby and East Riding. House Type Comparison 60.00 50.00 40.00
Detached SemiDetached
% 30.00
Terraced
20.00
Flat
10.00
es
y
al
lb &
W
Se
am
En
gl an
d
ot R
th or N
he
Li
rh
nc s
id in g st Ea
ss et Ba
Ba
R
La
w
sl ey rn
fie ef Sh
D
on
ca
st e
ld
r
0.00
3.17
As with housing type, tenure in Doncaster is similar to regional and national averages, shown in the graph below. However there are lower levels of privately rented properties (6.57%)12 compared to the regional average (9.10%)13. The dominant tenure in Doncaster is owner occupation (69.58%)14. Housing Tenure 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00%
Doncaster Local Authority
40.00%
Yorkshire & Humber England & Wales
30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Owner Occupied Households
Social Rented Private Rented Households Households
Living Rent Free
12
Census 2001 Census 2001 14 Census 2001 13
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Doncaster Context 3.18
The 2006 HNS has provided up to date information on Doncaster’s housing tenure, shown in the table below. The table shows that the tenure balance has not significantly changed since the Census, owner occupation remains the dominant tenure and has increased since the Census. 2006 HNS (%) Owned RSL Private Rented Other
3.19
73.7 20.7 5.1 0.5
Census (%) 69.5 20.9 6.5 3.1
The tenure profile for Doncaster is not significantly different to the adjacent local authority areas of Wakefield and Rotherham. However its neighbours of North Lincolnshire and North Nottingham and Selby all have a lower proportion of socially rented properties and a higher proportion of owner occupation.
3.20
In relation to house size in Doncaster, the 2006 HNS has highlighted the dominance of 3 bedroom properties, over half of the total stock is this size, 22% are two bedrooms and 13.6% four bedrooms.
3.21
Council tax data helps to illustrate the range of housing across an area, where there are concentrations of lower value, smaller properties (Band A) and where the dominance is of high value (Band E,F,G,H).
3.22
The graph below shows there is a proportionately higher percentage of band A properties (61.81%) in Doncaster compared to regional and national averages. This is 36%15 higher than the national average.
3.23
Conversely, there are substantially less properties in the higher tax bands E, F, G and H at only 4.6% compared to the national average of 18.6%.
15
Census 2001 Data
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Doncaster Context
Council Tax 70.0%
Doncaster Local Authority Yorkshire & Humber
60.0%
England & W ales
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Band A
3.24
Band B
Band C
Band D
Band E
Band F
Band G
Band H
With regards to the age of the properties within Doncaster, the housing stock is dominated by post 1944 dwellings (82.8%), with only 17.2% of Doncaster’s housing stock built prior to 194416 compared to 38.3% nationally17. Employment Structure
3.25
Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) data has been used to analyse the current employment structure of Doncaster. Employment is broken down into sectors as classified by the Standard Industrial Classification structure.
3.26
The table below shows that the major growth sectors (percentage of employment change) within Doncaster during the period 2000-2004 were construction, which grew by 28.25%, and banking/finance/insurance, with a growth rate of 8.05%. The construction industry in Doncaster demonstrated a rate of growth which exceeded that displayed at the regional level, which grew by only 17.11%.
3.27
The
major
growth
sector
at
the
Regional
level
was
Public
administration/Education/Health at a growth rate of 20.54%. This is nearly three times more than for the same sector in Doncaster, which grew by only 7.11%.
16 17
From Housing Needs Study 2006 2005/2006 Survey of English Housing
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Doncaster Context 3.28
The manufacturing industry declined in the period 2000-2004. Doncaster was not affected to the same extent as the Region as a whole, with a decline of 3.83% in comparison to the Regional average which saw a rate of decline of 14.41%.
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Doncaster Context
Distribution/ Hotels
Public administration/ Education/ Health
Construction
11,065
25,155
28,686
6,394
15,131
11,956
25,675
30,726
8,200
Manufacturing
Banking/ Finance/ Insurance
Doncaster 2000
15,733
Doncaster 2004 Net Change Yorkshire and the Humber 2000 Yorkshire and the Humber 2004
-3.83%
+8.05%
+2.07%
+7.11%
+28.25%
383,832
320,676
502,233
520,709
98,706
328,541
359,977
551,882
627,640
115,590
Net Change
-14.41%
+12.26%
+9.98%
+20.54%
+17.11%
3.29
Employment in Doncaster is not heavily reliant upon any one sector. As the graph below shows: Employment Change
35.0
Agriculture and fis hing
30.0
Energy and water Manufacturing
25.0
Cons truction
20.0
%
Dis tribution, hotels and res taurants
15.0
Trans port and com m unications
10.0
Banking, finance and ins urance, etc Public adm inis tration,education & health Other s ervices
5.0 0.0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
3.30
The data shows dominant sectors within Doncaster are public administration, education and health, construction and transport sectors. Data also shows a lower proportion of jobs in banking/finance and insurance, which collectively account for 11.3% of jobs within Doncaster; this is below the regional average of 16.0%.
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Doncaster Context House Price Analysis 3.31
An analysis of house prices in Doncaster has been carried out using data gathered from HM Land Registry which lists all house sales. For comparative purposes information has also been included at the regional level. It should be noted that the Land Registry collect data per quarter. As such, data for 2006 represents the two quarters up to June 2006. Average House Price Comparison
3.32
The graph below shows average house prices in Doncaster and Yorkshire & Humber between 2000 and up to June 2006. Average House Price Comparison 160,000 140,000 120,000
Price
100,000 Doncaster
80,000
Yorkshire & Humber
60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Until June 2006
Year
3.33
It highlights that: Average house prices in Doncaster are below the regional average. In 2005, average prices in Doncaster were ÂŁ20,659 less than in Yorkshire & Humber House prices have increased steadily in Doncaster since 2000.
3.34
Furthermore, calculations show that Doncaster has experienced a larger percentage increase in house prices for the period 2000 up to June 2006 (126.02%) in comparison to Yorkshire & Humber (62.89%). Average Prices by House Type
3.35
The table below sets out average house prices broken down by house type. It highlights that:
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Doncaster Context Average prices for all house types in Doncaster are below regional averages. The biggest difference is for Detached house prices which in 2005 was ÂŁ36,866 less than the regional average, Average prices for all house types in Doncaster have seen a larger percentage increase than the increase seen in Yorkshire and Humber Terraced house prices have experienced the largest percentage increase at 201.22% Year
Doncaster
Yorkshire & Humber
Type Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flats Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flats
3.36
2000 87,457 43,900 28,464 47,860 138,298 79,463 62,688 86,735
2001 93,894 46,597 28,695 37,720 90,801 65,269 47,983 72,219
2002 117,738 56,287 34,550 48,057 149,747 77,839 56,151 86,802
2003 152,620 75,325 50,295 76,896 185,067 98,397 69,796 104,655
2004 183,820 100,103 69,942 112,826 216,111 120,439 87,732 121,729
2005 200,238 110,715 82,106 116,598 237,104 133,231 100,512 127,192
Until June 2006 203,416 115,334 85,738 109,354 242,820 137,689 106,656 131,818
% Change 2000-2006 132.59 162.72 201.22 128.49 75.58 73.27 70.14 51.98
The table below compares Doncaster’s average house price for 2005 with other adjacent Local Authority areas.
Doncaster Barnsley Bassetlaw East Riding of Yorkshire North Lincolnshire Rotherham Selby
3.37
Detached 200,238 185,490 205,220 228,394 180,644 193,698 233,624
SemiDetached 110,715 105,592 110,015 136,695 103,236 110,866 141,724
Terraced 82,106 82,955 92,504 110,799 84,638 80,006 130,710
Flat/Maisonette 116,598 99,528 90,126 98,027 66,607 105,828 102,898
Overall 118,352 113,528 140,012 154,806 124,189 118,848 173,068
The table highlights that Doncaster has some of the lowest house prices across all types compared to adjacent areas. Its prices are on a par with those in Barnsley and Rotherham. It also highlights the significant gap between prices in South Yorkshire and neighbouring areas, particularly East Riding of Yorkshire and Selby. This may be as a result of the quality of the environment and influence on house type resulting in the area being more attractive to house buyers. Detached and Semi-Detached
3.38
As the following graph overleaf shows: Detached and semi-detached house prices in Doncaster are below the regional average
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Doncaster Context Doncaster has experienced a steady increase in average detached and semidetached house prices since 2000. Yorkshire & Humber saw a decrease in 2001, but a steady increase in the following years There has been a larger increase in detached house prices in Doncaster than semi-detached house prices In Doncaster, average semi-detached house prices are closer to the regional average than detached house prices Average House Price Comparison - Detached and Semi-Detached 300,000 250,000 Doncaster Detached
Price
200,000 Yorkshire & Humber Detached
150,000
Doncaster Semi-Detached
100,000
Yorkshire & Humber SemiDetached
50,000 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Until June 2006
Year
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Doncaster Context
Terraced and Flats
Average House Price Comparison - Terraced & Flats 140000 120000 100000
Price
Type Doncaster Terraced
80000
Yorkshire & Humber Terraced 60000
Doncaster Flats Yorkshire & Humber Flats
40000 20000 0 1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
3.39
The graph above highlights that: In 2005, the average terraced property in Doncaster cost ÂŁ82,106 and on average a flat was priced at ÂŁ116,598 Average terraced house prices in Doncaster are below the regional average, but have seen a steady increase in price since 2000 Whilst there was a large difference between Doncaster and regional flat prices in 2000, a sharp increase between 2001 and 2004 saw the gap between Doncaster and regional average prices narrow. Summary
3.40
Analysis of the key characteristics of DMBC’s population and socio-economic factors illustrates that Doncaster has: A younger demographic profile, that is broadly similar to regional and national averages A high proportion of married/cohabiting households with dependent children A higher than average proportion of residents in the lower socio-economic category, which impacts upon household composition, population and income A high proportion of inactivity within the economically active population
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Doncaster Context Dominance of public sector jobs and a lower proportion of more highly skilled employment 3.41
The analysis of the housing stock highlights that within DMBC: The area is dominated by owner occupied semi-detached housing There is a low proportion of privately rented properties There is a proportionately higher percentage of council tax band A properties than regional and national averages, suggestive of a lower value housing stock The majority of properties are post 1944 dwellings. The peripheral areas of Doncaster have housing market characteristics similar to North Lincolnshire and North Nottinghamshire
3.42
Analysis of house prices in Doncaster has shown that: Average house prices in Doncaster are below the regional average Average house prices in Doncaster have increased steadily since 2000 and have increased at a higher rate than for the region as a whole There has been a larger increase in detached house prices than semidetached. Semi-detached house prices are closer to the regional average than detached house prices Since 2005 there has been a decline in average flat prices.
3.43
The challenge for Doncaster is to move towards a more highly skilled workforce is to ensure that capacity within the existing population is maximised to ensure that they are able to take up employment opportunities the right type of housing is provided to attract new more highly skilled workers in Doncaster and vary the current household composition of Doncaster.
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Identifying the Current Housing Market
4.0
IDENTIFYING THE CURRENT HOUSING MARKET
4.1
This section summarises the analysis undertaken to understand the current Doncaster housing market. The analysis has been based on Census 2001 data, migration and travel to work (TTW) data. The analysis of this data has helped to define the spatial extent of Doncaster’s housing market in relation to its wider context.
4.2
Analysis has been carried at a number of levels; Doncaster wide and then further analysis at a smaller geographical level (usually Census Output Areas), which cover around 125 households, to help define housing market typologies and sub-markets which exist within the main housing market. Travel to Work Data
4.3
The travel-to-work data analysis for Doncaster highlights that the majority of flows take place within the Local Authority Area. 24.7% of the working population who live in Doncaster, travel out of the Doncaster area to work. This is quite a low proportion compared to Wakefield, Rotherham and Barnsley where more than 30% (38.9% in Rotherham) travel out of their Local Authority areas to work18.
4.4
There are some specific areas which can be identified which have relationships with the adjacent Local Authorities of Sheffield, Barnsley and Rotherham. These areas include: Bessacarr Mexborough Rossington
4.5
The majority of Bessacarr’s population travels out of the Local Authority to work and a large number travel to adjacent Local Authorities. The reasons behind these trends will be explored further in this paper, but it is envisaged that the location, housing stock, neighbourhood characteristics and transport links have influenced the trends identified in these particular neighbourhoods.
18
Census 2001 Data
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Identifying the Current Housing Market
19
19
The plan illustrates 2001 Census Data annotated with 2006 ward boundaries
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Identifying the Current Housing Market
4.6
The main urban core is the focus of a large proportion of travel to work in-flows, from both short and long distances. This is likely to be as a result of its role as the main employment centre.
4.7
The plan also highlights that there a number of smaller, but nonetheless important, employment destinations which include: Doncaster Carr – key retail employment cluster Prisons located within Doncaster Local Authority Warehousing around Thorne Larger centres of Mexborough and Conisbrough Migration Patterns
4.8
Migration patterns are based on Census 2001 data and show the movement of households in Doncaster a year before the Census. The migration patterns highlight a relatively contained housing market, with some limited connections to adjacent authorities, similar to the connections highlighted by the travel to work patterns. Overall, the dominant pattern (highlighted by the plan below) is out-migration from central areas to the urban periphery and more rural areas.
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Identifying the Current Housing Market
20
20
The plan illustrates 2001 Census Data annotated with 2006 ward boundaries
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Identifying the Current Housing Market
4.9
The migration analysis highlights: Mexborough, Conisbrough, the town centre area and the north eastern areas of Stainforth and Thorne (A18 corridor) as areas where there is a higher turnover of population and a lower containment rate21 compared to the rest of Doncaster. These characteristics suggest that these areas are distinct housing sub-markets within the Doncaster housing market.
4.10
The analysis has also highlighted that on the whole the distances people who have moved house are relatively small, suggesting a local self-contained market with smaller markets operating within the wider Doncaster market.
4.11
This is confirmed by the HNS which identified that the majority of people who have moved in the last 5 years have moved within Doncaster. Some of the more rural housing areas have seen a higher proportion of people moving in, these include Torne Valley, Sprotbrough and Askern Spa. This is likely to be linked to the quality of life factors of these areas which make them attractive which include; more rural environment, mix of house types and less dense structure. Future Migration Patterns
4.12
Information on future house movement patterns gathered through the HNS highlight that the majority of people (84%) looking to move in the next 5 years want to move within Doncaster, with only 15% looking to move out. This is suggests that the self contained nature of Doncaster’s housing market is likely to continue in the future.
4.13
Particular areas were highlighted through the survey where a higher proportion of people were looking to move, suggesting issues with the housing and the neighbourhood. These are; Balby (Woodfield Plantation), Bentley and Wheatley. The survey identified a mix of households looking to leave these areas, but the main reasons identified for moving was moving to a bigger property/better in some way or moving to a better neighbourhood/more pleasant area
4.14
Of those people thinking about moving, 50% of those are owner occupiers and 31.9% rent from St Leger.
4.15
In terms of the preferred location of where people want to move to, a number of areas were identified as preferred locations. These are:
21
The containment rate is the number of people who have moved house but remained within the local area. R40261-025 Final Report May 2007 A 27
Identifying the Current Housing Market Armthorpe Edenthorpe Balby (Woodfield Plantation) Bawtry Tickhill Bessacarr/Cantley Sprotbrough 4.16
This suggests that the characteristics of these areas are influencing their popularity for households in Doncaster. Migration and Travel-to-Work Summary
4.17
The analysis of travel to work and migration trends suggest that overall Doncaster’s housing market has a number of key characteristics which include: A relatively self contained housing market; with little impact from surrounding Local Authority areas, which is likely to continue into the future Strongest relationship to adjacent areas is in the southern part of Doncaster and its links with Rotherham Relatively low turnover of population Short migration distances, suggesting that small/local housing market areas are in operation Urban to rural drift, where a number of households are moving from urban areas into more rural areas Dominance of urban core for employment activity Influence of key transport destinations concentrated
routes/hubs
where
secondary
employment
Areas where people particularly want to move from are Balby (Woodfield Plantation), Wheatley and Bentley
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods
5.0
DEFINING LOCAL NEIGHBOURHOODS
Introduction 5.1
Housing markets are inherently linked to economic activity and demographics. In order to understand the dynamics of Doncaster’s housing market and the emerging sub-markets/housing market typologies, further analysis has been carried out to identify key characteristics and issues within the Doncaster market.
5.2
The analysis has included the following variables with data taken from the Census 2001 and the findings of the Housing Needs Study: Council Tax bands Tenure Type Household Composition Age Composition Socio-economic classification House Prices
5.3
A detailed analysis for each typology is set out under the following headings. A number of typologies have been identified for Doncaster, these are: Rural Hinterland – rural communities which are located furthest from the urban core and have borders with adjacent Local Authorities. Rural Centre – semi-rural communities which have characteristics which mean they function more of a centre to peripheral areas Peripheral Coalfield Community – former Coalfield communities which can be defined by certain characteristics Urban Core – central Doncaster area Social Suburb – areas characterised by the dominance of social housing Inner Suburb – areas close to the urban core but with certain characteristics setting it apart from the central urban area Prosperous Suburb – areas which have recently grown in popularity and show characteristics of housing market demand
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods Affluent Suburb – area with long standing popularity and housing market demand
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods
Rural Hinterland 5.4
This category refers to the areas including Hatfield, Clayton, Norton, Wadworth, Finningley and Bawtry located close to the DMBC outer Local Authority border. This typology is characterised by a higher than average proportion of detached properties (47.69%22) of which a significant proportion fall into the higher council tax bands signifying a high quality of housing stock of higher value. This area is also characterised by a high proportion of larger properties, particularly 4 bedroom properties.
5.5
The Rural Hinterland typology has larger proportions of higher (24.80%) and intermediate (17.45%) socio-economic category residents in comparison to the Doncaster average. The age profile highlights a higher proportion of 45– 64 year olds (28.01%), which is 3.61% higher than the Doncaster average (24.40%).
5.6
This typology has the highest proportion of married/cohabiting households with no children (24.08%) within Doncaster. Suggesting a more stable housing market area, where families are older and children are no longer dependants and linked to the large proportion of residents who have lived in this area for a long period of time23. Wadworth’s household composition profile highlights a higher than average proportion of married/cohabiting households with children (26.5%) in comparison to the average for Doncaster (35.72%). Within Bawtry a substantial proportion of properties fall into tax band D (17.58%) which is nearly 12% higher than the average for Doncaster (6.17%). This, along with the large proportion of detached housing in this settlement (40.43%) is suggestive of a higher quality of housing stock. There is also an older demographic profile within Bawtry with higher proportions of 45-64 year olds (27.13%) and 65+ year olds (19.27%).
5.7
House prices in this area reflect stability and areas of demand. Prices are higher than the Doncaster average and some of the highest within the Doncaster Local Authority area. The rural hinterland creates a band of high house prices around the periphery of Doncaster with average detached house price in 2005 upwards of ÂŁ180,000.
22
Percentages in this section are taken from Census 2001 figures based on Census Output Areas 23 Data gathered from the Housing Needs Survey 2006
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods Rural Centre 5.8
This category describes the rural neighbourhoods of Doncaster which function as a centre to more rural areas. It includes; Thorne, Fishlake and Moorends. These areas have a similar house type profile to Doncaster.
5.9
Its household composition profile is broadly in line with Doncaster averages with a slightly higher proportion of lone parent households with dependent children (7.94%) and a lower proportion of one person: other households (10.91%) Thorne is similar to the averages for the Borough as a whole. A large proportion of the neighbourhood’s population fall into the lower socioeconomic category (40.40%). The area is dominated by owner occupied terraced properties that fall within the lower tax bands A and B
5.10
The characteristics of this typology suggest a relatively successful mixed housing market area with high levels of owner occupation. However, there is an opportunity to diversify the mix of housing to provide a better range of housing. The lifestyle within these areas is predominantly dominated by the private car due to the more remote nature of the area and the good links to major road networks. Peripheral Coalfield Community
5.11
This typology covers the north east peripheral areas of Askern, Carcroft, Adwick-le -Street and Skellow.
5.12
There is a large proportion of lower socio-economic residents (39.41%) and a high proportion of council tax band A properties (65.45%). Household composition is similar to averages for the Borough as a whole with a higher proportion of lone parent households. Askern has a more balanced house type profile with a higher proportion of detached compared to other areas and Doncaster as a whole. This is balanced with a mix of house sizes. Askern also has a more balanced household composition, Adwick-le-Street and Carcroft display similar characteristics within this typology. There is a higher than average proportions of tax band A properties (73.9%) which is 12.11% higher than the Doncaster average. In comparison to other areas there is also a large proportion of lone parent households with dependent children (8.4%). This is nearly 2% higher than the regional average (6.4%)
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods 5.13
Socio-economic circumstances in these neighbourhoods are mixed, with some areas experiencing higher levels of deprivation and disadvantage and others like Askern Spa being more affluent. The area overall is ranked within the most deprived neighbourhoods in the UK, in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) which ranks neighbourhoods against a number of key indicators to assess the level of deprivation.
5.14
Employment and housing are two of the key indicators which are particularly highlighted as issues through the various indicators used in the IMD. The area is also included in the Green Corridor initiative. This is a partnership between adjacent Local Authorities acknowledging the range of issues in this area. There is a need to consider how these areas can benefit from economic change and projected growth expected to take place in Doncaster.
5.15
House prices vary considerably across this area, with pockets of house prices lower than the Doncaster average and areas where prices are higher. Urban Core
5.16
This typology is characterised by a high proportion of flats (13.46%), more than double the Doncaster average (6.41%) and older terraces, combined with a high proportion of tax band A properties. The area has the highest proportion of privately rented households (12.57%) which is 6% higher than the average for the Borough. In terms of house type, this typology is dominated by small properties, compared to other areas.
5.17
In relation to household composition, this typology has the highest proportion of one person: pensioner (16.90%) and one person: other (19.52%) households in the Borough. It also has a slightly higher than average proportion of lone parent households and a lower proportion of other families. Some of the key characteristics of the urban core are: In comparison to other neighbourhoods, Town Centre North has a significant proportion of properties in tax band B (20%) and a high proportion of terraced (53.9%) and privately rented properties (10.38%). The socio-economic profile of this area is broadly similar to the averages for the borough as a whole. Compared to most other neighbourhoods, there is also a larger proportion of people aged 65+ years (17.95%) in Town Centre North. Town Centre South has a large proportion of terraced housing (45.6%). This is 20.7% higher than the borough average. There is also
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods a large proportion of flats in the neighbourhood in comparison to other neighbourhoods, and at 12.77% is similar to the regional average. The housing stock, as across most of the Borough, is dominated by Council Tax Band A properties (82%). Of which a large proportion are socially rented. 5.18
Average house prices in the urban area are some of the lowest in Doncaster. In 2005 average house prices were around ÂŁ80,000. The urban core has experienced significant house price increases between 2000 and 2005; this is not an unusual trend and has occurred in other areas where the bottom of the market experiences the most significant price increases. The majority of house prices in this area remain below the Doncaster average of ÂŁ116,000.
5.19
This typology has been identified where there are a number of neighbourhoods where sustainability is considered to be fragile. Higher proportion of older properties and private rented properties correlate with a higher turnover of population and a less stable housing market in this area. Neighbourhoods within the urban core are ranked among the most deprived of Doncaster, within the top 5% most deprived in the UK. Social Suburb
5.20
This typology is generally representative of large areas of socially rented housing, dominated by council tax band A terraced and semi-detached properties, on the periphery of the urban core. The age profile is on the whole younger than other neighbourhoods with the highest proportion of 0-15 year olds in the Borough (22.64%). Its household composition highlights a high proportion of lone parent households: all dependent children (8.78%) in comparison to other neighbourhoods. Stainforth is dominated by St Leger Homes properties. The area has the highest proportion of people aged 0-15 years (25%) within Doncaster. It also has the highest proportion of lone parent households with dependent children (20%),13% higher than the Borough average. This is backed up by housing type and tenure data which highlights a higher than average proportion of socially rented semi-detached and terraced properties. This neighbourhood has the highest proportion of residents in the lower socio-economic category at 42.7%. This is 11% higher than the average for the Yorkshire and Humber region. Rossington, has a higher proportion of 0-15 years (22.74%) than the Doncaster average (20.91%). Compared to other neighbourhoods Rossington has the largest proportion of married/cohabiting households: all dependent children at 25%. It also has a slightly higher than average proportion of lone parent households with dependent children in
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods comparison to the average for the borough as a whole. The neighbourhood also exhibits a broadly similar housing tenure and type profile as the Doncaster averages, but Rossington does have a higher proportion of terraced housing at 29%. Rossington’s characteristics are a result of the dynamic housing mix in the area – poor social stock adjacent to a large amount of new house building results in contrasting housing markets within a very confined geographic area. Mexborough, Conisbrough, Edlington & Denaby Main display similar characteristics. The majority of residents fall into the lower socioeconomic category. There are also large proportions of socially rented households, with marginally more in Conisbrough & Denaby Main. The majority of properties in these neighbourhoods fall into council tax band A. Identified in the top 5% most deprived areas in the UK24. 5.21
This typology is also categorised by a high proportion of residents who have lived in their current homes for a short time, signifying a less stable local housing market.
5.22
The area is identified as a Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder area due to the fall in demand for properties and housing market dysfunction. The monotenure of these areas combined with poor environment and socio-economic characteristics has contributed to market fragility and housing market dysfunction. Inner Suburb
5.23
This typology covers the areas including Bentley and Toll Bar. It is characterised by owner occupation, with a large proportion of semi detached properties in comparison to the Borough average and a large proportion of terraced properties. The household composition is similar to that of Doncaster as a whole. Bentley’s household composition is broadly similar to the averages for the borough, although there is a slightly higher proportion of married/cohabiting households: all children dependent. Predominately properties in the area fall into the lower tax bands A and B, and the housing tenure and type profile highlights a large proportion of owner occupied terraced housing.
5.24
Overall the HNS identified that these areas have a high proportion of people who have no qualifications and links to a high proportion of unemployed people in Bentley.
24
Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods 5.25
House prices within this typology are as low as ÂŁ60,000, with the majority lower than the Doncaster average. The lower average prices around Bentley have shown a considerable percentage change between 2000 and 2005, likely to be as a result of the volume of new building and the increase popularity of housing in this area.
5.26
Past
new
house
building
has
also
increased
demand
in
these
neighbourhoods, as a result of improving the choice and quality of housing available. Prosperous Suburb 5.27
These are predominantly in East Doncaster, with the exception of Balby to the West and are characterised by higher tax band properties and owner occupied detached properties and higher proportions of new housing built in the last six years. Large proportions of higher socio-economic category residents live in this area (23.23%) in comparison to the rest of Doncaster. They also have a larger older population (26.54%) compared to the regional average (23.93%). Hatfield’s socio-economic profile shows that it has one of the highest proportions of higher socio-economic category residents (23%) within Doncaster. A large proportion of properties fall into the higher tax bands, and the housing stock is dominated by owner occupied semidetached housing suggesting the neighbourhood has high value, larger properties and is an affluent part of Doncaster. There is also a large proportion of people aged 45-64 years (29.05%), and the proportion of married/cohabiting households with no children in Hatfield (23.7%) exceeds the regional average by nearly 6%. In comparison to the rest of Doncaster, Hatfield has one of the lowest proportions of one person: pensioner households (12.13%). Edenthorpe and Armthorpe also have a high proportion of larger, detached properties and a high proportion of owner occupied properties.
5.28
One of the other characteristics of this typology is the number of new houses built in the area, this is likely to have influenced the increased popularity/housing demand in these areas.
5.29
All of the suburbs within this typology have a more balanced stock and tenure profile and exhibit signs of housing market stability and demand. Confirmed through average house prices, which in 2005 were up to ÂŁ220,000 in some
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Defining Local Neighbourhoods parts of the prosperous suburban areas, significantly higher than the Doncaster average. 5.30
However, some of these statistics may mask the more deprived parts of this area which are within the New Deal for Communities government initiative which was identified for areas of significant disadvantage. Affluent Suburb
5.31
This typology applies only to two areas to the East and West of the urban core namely; Bessacarr and Sprotbrough. These areas are characterised by a high proportion of larger, owner occupied detached housing, with a substantial proportion of the properties in this area falling into the higher tax bands. Bessacarr and Sprotbrough have a balanced mix of type and size of housing, with the dominant tenure being owner occupation. Bessacarr has a smaller proportion of low tax band properties than other parts of Doncaster, and a distinctly higher percentage of properties in the higher council tax bands C, D and E. 11.2% of properties in Bessacarr fall into band E. The socio-economic profile for these neighbourhoods is weighted towards higher economic groups, with a significant proportion who have further educational qualifications.
5.32
Demand for housing in this area is buoyant and characterised by high house prices. Neighbourhood factors and reputation are important and contribute to the characteristics of this typology. The lifestyle associated with these areas is dominated by the car and a large proportion of the population travel longer distances to work than other areas of Doncaster.
5.33
Data gathered through the Housing Needs Study, indicate that a large proportion of residents within these two areas have lived there for a considerable period of time; around 30% of residents have live there for more than twenty years. This correlates to the stable nature of population in this area. Summary
5.34
It will be important that policies/initiatives address issues identified within the typologies. This will help to address housing market dysfunction, reinforce stable housing market areas and created mixed and balanced communities.
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Understanding Future Supply and Demand Dynamic
6.0
UNDERSTANDING FUTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMIC
Understanding Housing Supply Introduction 6.1
This Section looks at past trends in relation to Doncaster’s housing supply, what is projected to come forward in the future and the implications on the demand and supply of housing arising from different economic growth scenarios.
6.2
Housing supply data has been obtained from Metropolitan Doncaster Borough Council (DMBC) to provide an insight into the current and future supply of housing within Doncaster.
Data has also been taken from the Doncaster Unitary
Development Plan (UDP) (Adopted July 1998), the Regional Spatial Strategy Submission Draft 2006 (RSS), DMBC’s Residential Land Availability (2006), as well as information on past demolitions supplied by DMBC’s Planning Department. Doncaster Housing Allocation and Past Supply 6.3
Doncaster’s long term housing supply has averaged at approximately 850 units per annum for the last 20 years. This has reduced slightly to approximately 800 units in the last 2 to 5 years, predominately due to a low number of completions in 2001/2002.
The historic number of completions is lower than the allocation in
Doncaster’s Unitary Development Plan of 1,113 units per annum.
The Regional
Planning Guidance Figure since 1998 has been 735 units per annum, which has been slightly exceeded by the number of completions. 6.4
There is little information on the house types that have been built during this period, however it is anticipated that the majority will have been semi detached and detached properties, with more flatted accommodation being built or in the pipeline in the last couple of years.
6.5
In 2002 following changes in planning policy at a national level (PPG3), a greenfield moratorium was introduced in Doncaster, to encourage development to take place on brownfield sites in sustainable locations. The moratorium sets out a presumption against the granting of planning permissions for housing development on greenfield sites, including those sites that are allocated within the UDP.
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39
Understanding Future Supply and Demand Dynamic
capacity of these greenfield allocations is approximately 5,000 units. A review of sites that are currently allocated in the UDP will be undertaken as part of the preparation of the Local Development Framework. The review will be mindful of the need to achieve brownfield land targets as set out in the draft RSS (65% of development to be on previously developed land), regeneration priorities and ensure that housing is brought forward in sustainable locations (i.e close to employment, transport nodes, services etc) Stock Condition Doncaster Private Sector Stock Condition Survey 2003 (David Adamson and Partners) 6.6
The most recent stock condition survey for Doncaster was carried out in 2003 by David Adamson and Partners. The survey was carried out on a Doncaster wide basis and analysed using different area boundaries which had been identified, alongside the Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder area and the New Deal for Communities area.
6.7
The survey identified that 18.9% of homes in Doncaster were non-decent, which is a lower rate than the national average of 31.2%. Of those, 44% of non-decent dwellings are occupied by vulnerable households, only slightly higher than the national average of 43%.
6.8
A further 7.5% dwellings (7,548) are unfit and fail to meet the repair criterion of the Decent Homes Standard. The Pathfinder area has an over representation of nondecent housing (20.2%) as does the New Deal for Communities area (30.0%).
6.9
Elderly and single person households have been identified as particularly affected by poor property condition; these households correspond to households receiving benefit or on low incomes.
6.10
The estimated cost to repair and improve the non-decent housing in Doncaster was estimated at around ÂŁ75.61 million or ÂŁ3,991 on average per property.
6.11
Overall housing conditions in Doncaster are better than the national average but localised stock condition problems have been identified. The following table sets out
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Understanding Future Supply and Demand Dynamic
the issues in relation to the management areas, the housing market renewal pathfinder area and the NDC area. Decent Homes Investment 6.12
St Leger Homes, who manage the Council’s housing stock, have an investment programme of around £230million, to bring all of the Council’s stock up to the Decent Homes Standard by 2010. This will involve investment in around 20,000 properties. The investment programme will be undertaken in a phased approach. Housing Needs Survey
6.13
The Housing Needs Survey carried out as part of this housing market assessment asked a number of questions relating to the need for investment and repairs required to properties. The results from these questions provide an indication to the types and level of repairs required.
6.14
Around 65.6% of the households managed by St Leger indicated that their property was in need of repair, higher than any other tenures. The main types of repair identified by Council tenants were; windows (55.4%), doors (44.4%) and kitchens (38.4%). St Leger is required to bring the stock they manage up to Decent Homes Standard by 2010 and therefore this investment to an extent should address the higher incidence of repairs that have been highlighted.
6.15
For owner occupiers, a number of households identified that they required to make repairs to their properties, but a large proportion (62.5%), stated that they could not afford to carry out the repairs. For owner occupiers the main repairs required were identified as: brick/stonework (25.5%), roof (29.3%), windows (25.6%), kitchen (22.5%) and bathroom/toilet (25.2%). Future Demographic Change
6.16
The graph below shows expected population change in Doncaster taken from the Office of National Statistics data (ONS).
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Understanding Future Supply and Demand Dynamic
Population Projections
Total Population (thousands)
296.0 294.0 292.0 290.0 288.0 286.0 284.0
Year
6.17
The trend based projections are modelled on observed levels over previous years, and show what the population will be if recent trends continue. Projections indicate that for Doncaster: Total population is set to increase from 288,400 people in 2006, to 294,100 people in 2028, an increase of 1.98% The population of younger age groups is expected to decrease The population of older age groups are set to increase, with the 85+ age group estimated to double from 5,200 people in 2006 to 10,200 people in 2028.
Household Growth 6.18
As shown in the graph below, there is a projected growth in household numbers in Doncaster: Household Projections 140,000
Households
135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000 115,000 110,000 2003
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Year
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2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
282.0
Understanding Future Supply and Demand Dynamic
6.19
Figures indicate that there will be a steady increase in household numbers rising from 121,000 households in 2003 to 135,000 in 2021 (percentage change of 10.3%) and then up to 138,000 households in 2026 (percentage change of 2.1%).
6.20
Figures from the ONS highlight that growth in household numbers is in line with subregional and regional projections which are also estimated to increase. However, the percentage increase in households is lower in Doncaster (2.22%), than the increases indicated in South Yorkshire (2.46%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (3.04%).
6.21
In 2001 there were 123,161 dwellings in Doncaster, therefore a further 11,839 houses would be required up to 2021 to accommodated projected household growth. This would represent an annual increase of approximately 600 units. Post 2004 Housing Allocation
6.22
The draft RSS sets out Doncaster’s housing allocation up to 2021. The figures have been derived using two economic scenarios and then a range of policy drivers have been applied to determine the housing allocation at a Local Authority level. The first phase of the housing allocation is based on the 2003 sub national population projections, (taking into account current commitments) and the second phase is based on an increase in the number of houses that will be required due to improved economic performance.
6.23
The RSS identifies the net annual requirement from 2004 – 2016 as 855 units per annum rising to 1,080 units per annum between 2016 and 2021. The former figure closely mirrors past completion rates, whereas the higher figure reflects anticipated economic growth arising from Robin Hood airport, urban renaissance and growth in the digital and distribution sector. The number of houses required exceeds OPDM projections, demonstrating that they are linked to improved economic performance in the region, of which Doncaster will play an important role. It is anticipated that there will be capacity within Doncaster and the development industry to achieve the build rates set out in the RSS, especially given the lead in time prior to the higher level of housing provision. Demolitions
6.24
There have been relatively few demolitions undertaken in Doncaster historically. Demolitions that are anticipated to come forward in the next 5 years equate to
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approximately 350 units25, lower than the 220 per annum target set out in the RSS. These are located within the housing market renewal area of Doncaster (Mexborough and Conisbrough), Stainforth and Central Doncaster. 6.25
To enable housing market restructuring to take place, the draft RSS sets out an annual demolition rate of 220 units per annum which would increase Doncaster’s gross build rate to 1,065 between 2004 and 2016. This would be an immediate increase from historic build rates and could potentially be challenging, if high demolition rates are achieved. If these demolition targets are not achieved the consequence will be that net additions will only increase to replace the number of properties demolished. Drivers of Change
6.26
The Audit Commission have identified a number of housing market drivers which impact upon the housing market in specific areas. The drivers which have been identified are set out below:
25
Taken from planned demolitions by the Pathfinder, St.Ledger etc
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Structural Economic Change Demographic Change Migration B&ME Communities Social Cohesion Student populations Poor Housing Conditions Locational Environment Layout Transport Infrastructure Aspirations Home Neighbourhood Tenure Meeting Aspirations Policy Supply and Demand For Housing Planning Policies Housing Policies
6.27
This section analyses these drivers and highlights the key drivers in relation to Doncaster’s housing market. Structural Future Economic Scenarios
6.28
Doncaster’s aim is for higher economic growth through increased productivity and employment. A number of key projects have been identified which will be the key focus for driving economic change. The success and potential expansion of Robin Hood Airport will be the main focus for increased economic growth, attracting new residents and employees. By 2021 it is expected that this will be an international airport carrying high volumes of passengers and freight
6.29
The other major transformational projects that have been identified26 which will help deliver this change are: Doncaster Waterfront, a 46hectare site with a long term vision to create a high quality mixed use development that includes residential, commercial and leisure accommodation;
26
South Yorkshire Strategic Economic Assessment (Draft July 2006)
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The Civic and Cultural Quarter, an underused 25ha brownfield site and one of the largest and most important regeneration projects in the town centre. The best standard of urban design will be applied to provide a top class mixed use site with residential, retail and commercial accommodation set around a well design public space; The market ready mixed use development at Lakeside where several sites will be brought to the market including 8ha for lake front residential development, 4.5ha for commercial uses and 7.7ha of industrial land; The Digital Knowledge Exchange, which will become the central hub of Doncaster’s emerging digital industries as well as supporting education and skills development; Town Moor and Racecourse re-development, a future vision of a 4* quality business class hotel and the relocation of the Bloodstock sales facilities A £32 million Doncaster Sports Complex delivered by the Council to enhance the Borough’s sporting and recreational facilities. Development will provide a 15,000 seat stadium and a variety of leisure and educational amenities. 6.30
There are a number of implications for housing markets in response to higher levels of economic growth which will need to be addressed by: Ensuring the stock reflects household aspirations and changing socio – economic profile of existing residents and migrants; Providing a high quality supply of market and social housing in the right locations to offset problems of affordability and conversely low demand; Developing new housing to meet market segments – ‘city living apartments’, retirement properties, executive housing, shared equity housing; Designing housing developments to a high quality to positively impact on the environment to retain and attract people within/to Doncaster; and Providing housing and living environments where people want to live by choice. Demographic
6.31
Doncaster’s population is expected to increase over the next fifteen years. The RSS and local strategies are based on economic growth which will be fuelled by population growth and an increase in migrants. To meet the needs of the existing and new residents arising from the economic change, Doncaster should aim to provide housing which encourages and supports economic growth.
6.32
Doncaster’s BME community has doubled since 2001 according to the Housing Needs Survey.
The BME community will have specific housing and cultural
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requirements that will need to be met through the existing and new housing supply. Separate research is underway to inform policies to meet the needs of gypsies and travellers who are a significant population in Doncaster. 6.33
The changing demographics are likely to have the following implications for Doncaster: An increased hollowing out of areas of housing market dysfunction and unpopular areas by people who have the ability to meet their aspirations for higher quality housing resulting people who cannot exercise choice being concentrated in this area Increased pressure on desirable areas and a demand for new developments which meet aspirations both in terms of housing and environmental quality Increase in the demand for flats and socially rented population An increasing need for housing to meet an ageing population and smaller households Housing to meet the needs of a growing BME community Migration
6.34
Doncaster has suffered from net-out migration leading to population loss. Some areas in particular have been subject to significant out-migration which is driven by the lack of desirable housing for rent and for sale located in poor quality neighbourhoods. This has caused people to leave areas to find other accommodation which meets need and aspirations.
6.35
Migration patterns highlight a significant shift of movement from the urban core to more peripheral rural locations in Doncaster.
6.36
Addressing the imbalances within Doncaster’s housing market through the protection/enhancement of stable housing markets and redevelopment of fragile areas with the provision of modern/larger housing within a pleasant environment, will be key to retaining population, in areas that are currently experiencing out migration as well as within popular housing areas. Locational
6.37
Two key drivers which relate to location and the popularity of neighbourhoods can be identified which have an impact on the housing market in Doncaster.
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Environment Transport Infrastructure 6.38
Doncaster has excellent connections both by road, rail and air. The location of these connections has had an impact on current travel-to-work patterns and the popularity of particular neighbourhoods. This is likely to influence future housing markets in Doncaster.
6.39
Other locational factors influencing the popularity of neighbourhoods identified by the housing needs assessment include: Schools Health Care Parks and Open Space General Reputation
6.40
The housing needs survey identified that there were high levels of satisfaction with the neighbourhoods of Bessacarr, Cantley, Armthorpe, Finningley, Sprotbrough, Torne Valley and Edenthorpe/Kirk Sandall. To achieve high satisfaction levels in the other neighbourhoods to ensure that they are sustainable in the longer term, the above factors will need to be provided or improved alongside the provision of good quality housing. Aspirations
6.41
Housing aspirations in Doncaster are fairly traditional. Those people looking to move have expressed a demand for mainly 3 bedroom properties. To a lesser extent there is also demand for 2 bedroom bungalows and flats. The image, environment and access to facilities/services including good schools and healthcare are important factors when determining where to buy a property.
6.42
In terms of tenure aspirations, there is interest in intermediate ownership as well as the increasing aspiration to own a property. There is limited demand for private rented properties within Doncaster. It is likely that intermediate ownership will increase as understanding of this tenure increases as well as the number of properties of this type being built.
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6.43
As well as meeting these traditional housing aspirations, an element of larger properties will also be required to meet the demands of higher skilled workers, if higher levels of economic growth are achieved. Areas with larger properties in high quality environments, have house prices well in excess of the Doncaster average, highlighting their popularity. Policy Drivers
6.44
The RSS and local policies will be a strong influence on Doncaster.
The RSS
identifies the scale of housing required across South Yorkshire. Specifically the need to increase demolition and replace unpopular housing with housing which meets needs and aspirations. 6.45
The RSS places a strong emphasis on sustainability and ensuring that the release of land complements areas where there is the need for housing market restructuring.
6.46
Future planning policy for Doncaster is set out within the Core Strategy of the Local Development Framework (LDF). A number of key growth settlements are identified which will be the focus of future housing growth. This is likely to have an impact on the future housing markets which may emerge in Doncaster.
6.47
The policies aspire for a step change. By combining the elements of housing, economic and social change and working closely with the private sector, the objectives of higher build/demolition rates and the creation of places where people want to live can be achieved. Housing Demand Arising From Economic Growth
6.48
Research has recently been undertaken by CURS27 into Housing and Economic Growth in the Sheffield City Region. This research sets out the anticipated job growth arising from the continuation of past trends as well as if planned investment comes to fruition.
For Doncaster this will primarily be from employment arising from the
expansion of Robin Hood Airport and investment in a number of key employment sites. If past trends continue approximately 7,823 new jobs are anticipated to be created in Doncaster, compared to 16,803 if there is improved economic performance.
It is anticipated that the decline in the manufacturing sector will
continue and employment growth will arise from the service sector, transport and
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communications, finance and businesses. The increase in employment will have implications for Doncaster in terms of housing provision, transport infrastructure and the delivery of services. 6.49
The CURS study forecasts that much of the new employment will be in medium and lower skilled activities, implying part time and less well paid activities. However through its economic development policies, Doncaster is aiming for higher economic growth than forecast in the study which would generate a larger proportion of higher skilled and better paid jobs. The research also states that spatially employment growth
will
be
concentrated
in
less
deprived
and
traditional
suburban
neighbourhoods. This will pose challenges for the successful delivery of the urban renaissance and Green Corridor regeneration initiatives. 6.50
Not all of the employment increase in Doncaster will be taken by residents of Doncaster, and currently Doncaster is a net out commuter of labour, with a job density of 0.728.
Taking this into consideration as well as the propensity of
households to form given the types of jobs to be created it is anticipated that 4,153 new houses will be needed between 2004 and 2016 if trends continue, rising to 10,438 new houses if planned investment comes to fruition. This figure would result in annual housing demand arising from employment of 294, rising to 746. The latter is a significant proportion of the RSS annual housing requirement for Doncaster and would
leave
little
headroom
for
household
formation
arising
from
other
circumstances. Demand for House Types 6.51
The CURS research provides useful insights into the implications of economic growth on the demand for housing in terms of type and tenure. It suggests that if past trends continue, there will be a reduction in the demand for owner occupied and private rented housing, whereas the demand for social housing is expected to increase. However, government policy is focused on increasing home ownership, through both owner occupation and the growth of intermediate market housing. Therefore as a result of the current government’s agenda, future trends may result in an increase in home ownership and intermediate tenures including private renting and a decline in the preference for social rented housing.
27
CURS, Housing and Economic Growth in the Sheffield City Region – September 2006
28
The concentration of jobs relative to the working age population
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Understanding Future Supply and Demand Dynamic
6.52
If higher economic growth is realised there will be an increase in demand for housing across all tenures. An increase in demand for flats is anticipated across all tenures for both scenarios, with the exception of a reduction in the demand for flats in the private rented sector if past trends continue.
6.53
Given the type of jobs that are likely to be created, lower/medium skilled, part time employment, the research highlights that affordability of housing is likely to be an issue. 50% of the new households are unlikely to be able to afford a mortgage of more than ÂŁ100,000. The increase in households as a result of employment growth will pose delivery challenges for the development industry and Local Authorities, which could also impact on house prices, if housing supply fails to keep apace with demand. Future Housing Supply
6.54
The key transformational projects in Doncaster are likely to result in an increase in the supply of apartments/flats. There currently has a low proportion of flats compared to sub-regional and regional averages; therefore it has the potential to expand this type of housing.
6.55
As flatted accommodation in Doncaster is a relatively untested market, it may be beneficial to gauge the success of flat/apartment developments to establish the scale of demand for apartment living, prior to enabling flats to come forward in future developments. The findings from the housing needs survey indicate that there is some demand for apartments/flats from current residents in Doncaster.
6.56
If too many flats are developed in Doncaster, this could adversely impact upon the creation of sustainable communities. The recent increase in the supply of flats has resulted in properties being bought for investment purposes or as buy to let, leading to empty properties or population instability. Housing research has shown that flats are viewed as a transitional property to meet housing needs at a particular life stage. It will be important for Doncaster to monitor the amount of flats coming forward over the next few years and to understand their tenure to ensure any issues are identified, particularly where flats are becoming dominated by the buy-to-let market.
6.57
Research by Savills Residential Research highlighted in the Times newspaper (October 2006) has highlighted that over half new apartments in Leeds are already vacant, despite plans for doubling the current number of flats. This suggests that
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Doncaster should progress with a cautious approach to the number of flats built, monitoring how well they sell and if possible the tenure that they become. 6.58
A plan, monitor, manage approach will be necessary between now and 2021 to ensure that the type of housing that comes forward is the right type to meet the needs of current and future residents. There is clearly a need to provide at least 800 houses in Doncaster to reflect people’s needs and aspirations.
6.59
Doncaster will instigate activities to address housing market imbalance or instability wherever it occurs in the borough. A number of planned new developments are concentrated around the urban centre, which will help address market renewal activities including Transform South Yorkshire Pathfinder and the Green Corridor which involve the replacement of existing dwellings. Work is required to ensure that these development sites contribute to creating mixed communities by meeting both housing aspirations and need. Summary
6.60
Doncaster has a relatively stable housing market with pockets where the market is currently dysfunctional. These areas have already been identified for regeneration through the Pathfinder, area based initiatives and urban renaissance. Additionally there are a number of housing hot spots, where demand is high resulting in higher than average prices, driven primarily by neighbourhood factors and the choice of housing available.
6.61
Housing supply has been relatively steady over the last twenty years in Doncaster to meet demand, with the majority of the provision being 3 bedroom semi-detached properties.
6.62
The future economic growth projected for South Yorkshire, of which Doncaster will be a driver, potentially poses a number of challenges for the Local Authority, RSLs and developers. The higher level of economic growth projected will result in an increase in the current supply by at least two hundred units, increasing further if demolition rates are achieved. Additionally the area could also become more popular due to the increased economic growth which is predicted in the sub-region, potentially resulting in further housing market pressures and out commuting.
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6.63
A plan, monitor, manage approach will be required to assess whether the economic growth is being realised and what the implications of this are in terms of population and household growth. This will enable the Local Authority to work with developers to establish whether there is capacity within the industry and the market to accommodate the additional housing growth.
6.64
The research identifies that as well as an increase in owner occupation and the demand for housing and bungalows, there will also be demand for socially rented property and some flats. The latter is an untested market and again needs to be planned for and monitored. The anticipated demand for social properties will also pose delivery challenges given the current high number of residents on waiting lists.
6.65
Policies will need to ensure that the appropriate amount and type of housing comes forward and that a balance is achieved so as not to undermine the popularity of existing neighbourhoods and to ensure that regeneration objectives are fully met.
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7.0
HOUSING REQUIREMENTS IN DONCASTER
Introduction 7.1
Overall housing requirements in the Doncaster MBC area can be divided into: The need for affordable housing (social rented and intermediate tenure) Demand for general market housing (private rented and owner occupation)
7.2
This section provides an overview of the types of development which are required by location, tenure, type and size to address these overall requirements, a technical appendix is attached. It should be noted that the Regional Spatial Strategy identifies annual provision targets and this research provides evidence to identify the proportion of new build which should be affordable.
7.3
Affordable housing needs are calculated using CLG Housing Needs methodology29. This methodology has been applied at ward level and provides the Council with a detailed understanding of variations in the need for affordable accommodation across Doncaster.
7.4
Appendix A of this report provides detailed information on the housing needs methodology and assumptions made.
7.5
The demand for market housing is considered by comparing the aspirations of households intending to move within the general market with stock availability. This highlights mismatches in stock profiles and indicates the type of development needed to help balance housing markets across the Borough.
7.6
For policy making, the timescale for identified housing requirements is assumed to be the five year period April 2007 to March 2012. Affordable housing definitions
7.7
PPS3 identifies the definition of affordable housing as:
29
See Local Housing Needs Assessment: A guide to good practice (DTLR, 2000) and Housing Market Assessments Draft Guidance (CLG December 2005)
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‘Affordable housing includes social rented and intermediate housing, provided to specific eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Affordable housing should: Meet the needs of eligible households including availability at a cost low enough for them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and house prices Include provision for the home to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or, if these restrictions are lifted, for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision’30 7.8
A fundamental objective of this research is to equip Doncaster Council with clear and robust information to inform policy development and present a range of affordable housing solutions.
7.9
In line with CLG guidance, survey data has been analysed to identify a threshold by which a rent/mortgage is deemed to be affordable or unaffordable. This analysis takes into account: Total Gross household income; and Existing equity and access to financial resources (other than a mortgage); which determines whether a household can afford open market solutions
7.10
The following are suggested as working definitions of both affordable housing and what is affordable: Affordable housing includes both social rented and intermediate tenure housing. Intermediate tenure includes housing at prices or rents above those of social rent but below market prices or rents. Affordability
7.11
Affordability is measured on the basis of gross household income. An owneroccupied property is unaffordable if it costs more than 3.5x a single or 2.9x a dual gross household income. Households entering owner occupation are also assumed to have at least a 5% deposit. A rented property is unaffordable if it costs more than 25% of gross household income.
30
Planning Policy Statement 3 (December 2006) Annex B
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Role of the Private Rented Sector 7.12
CLG guidance recommends that the role of the private rented sector in providing affordable accommodation is assessed. However, this needs to be carefully done: quality of accommodation; gatekeeping (i.e. properties not let to benefit-dependent /vulnerable households); and short-term tenancies all impinge on the private rented sector being a viable alternative to more traditional forms of affordable housing, such as that provided by St. Leger Homes and RSLs.
7.13
An analysis of various private rented lettings websites suggests market rents are upwards of £450-£500 per calendar month (pcm) for better quality properties in popular areas. Minimum rents are upwards of £300pcm. The relative affordability of private rented accommodation to existing households in need and newly-forming households has been assessed on the basis of a £350pcm rent. This would require a minimum household income of £16,800 per year or £1,400 per month. Analysis based on a £350pcm rent suggests that the private rented sector is marginally more affordable to households than open market purchase. However, for the reasons outlined in paragraph 7.11, the proportion who could not afford open market purchase is taken as the benchmark in assessing affordable requirements. Affordable Housing Requirements
7.14
Analysis of housing need identifies an annual shortfall of 224 affordable dwellings per annum across Doncaster (1,120 over the period April 2007 to March 2012).
7.15
Table 7.1 illustrates annual affordable housing requirements by designation (general /older persons’ accommodation), property size and location. This takes into account supply of existing general needs and older persons’ affordable dwellings and compares this supply with the identified requirements for affordable housing from existing households in need and newly-forming households. For instance, Table 7.1 shows that in Adwick, there is an annual shortfall of 9 smaller (1/2 bedroom) general needs dwellings; in Armthorpe, there is an annual shortfall of 9 smaller (1/2 bedroom) general needs dwellings, 2 larger (3+ bedroom) general needs dwellings and 1 older persons (1 bedroom) dwelling.
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Table 7.1
Annual affordable dwelling requirements by area, designation, type and size
Ward
Adwick Armthorpe Askern Spa Balby Bentley Bessacarr and Cantley Central Conisbrough and Denaby Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Edlington and Warmsworth Finningley Great North Road Hatfield Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Stainforth and Moorends Thorne Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley TOTAL
Designation General (no. beds) 1/2 3+ 9 9 2 12 0 8 22 11 12 3 9 2 7 13 20 9 3 10 8 14 6 10 197
Older (no. beds) 1 2+
4
1 2 0 2 3 1 0
1 1
2
1
2
3 1 2
11
17
Total 9 12 14 8 24 11 15 4 13 2 7 14 21 0 9 6 10 13 15 8 10 224
Tenure preferences 7.16
Households were asked to state tenure preferences. Table 7.2 summarises the preferences of both existing households in need and newly forming households by sub-area. Overall, a tenure split of 26.2% intermediate and 73.8% social rented is suggested, although this varies by sub-area. Tenure preferences are then applied to the total shortfall of dwellings evidenced in Table 7.1. For instance, in Adwick, the annual affordable requirement is 9 dwellings. By taking into account the tenure preferences of existing households in need and newly forming households, this results in a split of 79.8% for social rented and 20.2% for intermediate tenure (i.e. shared ownership, shared equity etc.). These percentages are apportioned to the identified requirement for 9 dwellings, resulting in an annual requirement of 7 social rented and 2 intermediate tenure dwellings in Adwick.
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Table 7.2
Affordable housing tenure preferences by sub-area
Ward
Tenure Split
Adwick Armthorpe Askern Spa Balby Bentley Bessacarr and Cantley Central Conisbrough and Denaby Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Edlington and Warmsworth Finningley Great North Road Hatfield Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Stainforth and Moorends Thorne Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley TOTAL
Summary
Social Rented 79.8 78.4 66.1 81.5 73.5 79.0 72.7
Intermediate 20.2 21.6 33.9 18.5 26.5 21.0 27.3
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Total Need 9 12 14 8 24 11 15
75.7
24.3
100
4
3
1
74.4
25.6
100
13
10
3
75.8 70.2 69.3 74.3 76.7 61.8 61.4 66.9 71.0 71.9 73.7 80.3 73.8
24.2 29.8 30.7 25.7 23.3 38.2 38.6 33.1 29.0 28.1 26.3 19.7 26.2
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2 7 14 21 0 9 6 10 13 15 8 10 224
2 5 10 16 0 6 4 7 9 10 6 8 165
1 2 4 6 0 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 59
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Social Rented 7 9 9 6 18 9 11
Intermediate 2 3 5 1 6 2 4
58
Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Summary of affordable housing requirements 7.17
Having identified the overall annual affordable requirements in Table 7.1, apportioned overall requirements by tenure in table 7.2, Table 7.3 blends this information together to produce a summary of annual affordable housing requirements by property size, designation and tenure. Table 7.3
Affordable housing preferences by property size and tenure
Table 7.3a SOCIAL RENTED: ANNUAL REQUIREMENT Sub-Area
Adwick Armthorpe Askern Spa Balby Bentley Bessacarr and Cantley Central Conisbrough and Denaby Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Edlington and Warmsworth Finningley Great North Road Hatfield Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Stainforth and Moorends Thorne Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley Total
General Smaller (1/2 Bed) 7 7 8 6 16 9 9 2 7 2 5 9 15 6 2 7 6 10 4 8 144
Older Person Larger (3/4 Bed) 2
TOTAL
1 Bed 1 1 1 2 1
3
1 1
1
0
1
2 1 1
7
12
7 9 9 6 18 9 11 3 10 2 5 10 16 0 6 4 7 9 10 6 8 165
(Note some rows do not add up due to rounding)
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Table 7.3b INTERMEDIATE: ANNUAL REQUIREMENT Sub-Area
Adwick Armthorpe Askern Spa Balby Bentley Bessacarr and Cantley Central Conisbrough and Denaby Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Edlington and Warmsworth Finningley Great North Road Hatfield Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Stainforth and Moorends Thorne Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley Total
General Smaller (1/2 Bed) 2 2 4 1 6 2 3 1 2 1 2 4 5 0 3 1 3 2 4 2 2 52
Older Person Larger (3/4 Bed) 0
TOTAL
1 Bed 0 0 1 1 0
1
0 0
1
0
1
1 0 1
3
4
2 3 5 1 6 2 4 1 3 1 2 4 6 0 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 59
(Note some rows do not add up due to rounding) Comparison with housing waiting list 7.18
The analysis of affordable housing requirements is based on DCLG Housing Needs Assessment modelling. This considers the minimum number of bedrooms a household requires, rather than what it aspires to. This reflects general allocation policies of social housing providers (for example, a single person or couple can only be allocated a property with one bedroom and a lone parent with one child a two bedroom property).
7.19
As a result, findings are at variance with housing waiting list figures as shown in Table 7.4
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Table 7.4
Comparison with needs modelling and waiting list figures
Property size
7.20
2006
Needs 2006
Housing
Assessment
Waiting List
Freq
%
Freq
%
Smaller (1/2 Bed)
214
95.4
11,846
70.7
Larger (3+ Bed)
10
4.6
4914
29.3
Total
224
100.0
16760
100.0
Furthermore, the Needs Assessment modelling focuses on the specific cohort of the population identified to be in housing need as per DCLG needs definitions and therefore does not include households who are on the general waiting list.
7.21
The household survey identified a total of 8,263 households currently registered on the housing waiting list (7,075 existing households and 1,188 newly forming households. When their property size preferences are taken into account: 50.6% stated a preference for a 1 or 2 bedroom property 49.4% stated a preference for a 3 or more bedroom property
7.22
Having compared housing waiting list figures with the needs assessment model, the following views on future development should be taken into account: The needs assessment model has identified a shortfall of 224 dwellings per annum The needs assessment model focuses on a particular cohort of the population in housing need and considers minimum bedroom requirements which establishes a particular need for smaller properties (1-2 bedrooms) When developing new affordable housing, needs assessment evidence needs to be balanced with broader waiting list figures, which shows that 70.7% of households require up to two bedrooms and 29.3% require three or more bedrooms and the current supply of one bedroom properties across Doncaster which do not meet needs and aspirations, where supply outweighs demand Ultimately, after taking into account needs assessment modelling and waiting list information, the strongest requirement remains for one/two bedroom properties. However, consideration should be given to developing properties with two/three bedrooms or more, as Doncaster already has an oversupply of
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
one bedroom properties which are unpopular. Waiting list evidence suggests that 29.3% of applicants require and are eligible for a three or more bedroom property Intermediate Tenure Market, Prices and Options 7.23
The intermediate tenure market caters for households who can afford a social rent but are unable to afford owner occupation on the open market. A series of options are available which include: New build Homebuy (Shared ownership) Property is owned jointly with a Housing Association, with householder paying a mortgage on the part they own and rent on the rest Open Market Homebuy Household owns part of a property and someone else e.g. a Housing Association or private developer owns the rest - the household only pays a mortgage on the part they own Social Homebuy Housing association and local authority tenants are helped to buy their current home (up to 100% ownership) (note this is different to Right to Buy/Acquire) Discounted Home Ownership Property bought at below market value and resold at below market value in perpetuity
7.24
The cost of intermediate tenure options needs careful consideration. The cost of intermediate tenure tends to be made with reference to Lower Quartile prices and the extent to which this is affordable. For Doncaster, the Lower Quartile price is around £76,000. Even though this is relatively low compared with many other areas of Yorkshire and the Humber, a household still needs an annual income of £21,700 for this to be affordable. This compares with median household earnings of £300 per week (£15,600 per year).
7.25
To illustrate the potential affordability of intermediate tenure options, we have considered what is affordable to existing households in need/newly forming households on the basis of:
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Household income and access to equity/savings (Table 7.5); and Household income alone (Table 7.6)
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster Table 7.5
What is affordable to households on the basis of income and equity/access to savings.
% of households who could afford based on income and equity/access to savings % All households who could afford equity share of: £50,000 £60,000 £70,000 £80,000 £90,000 £100,000 £110,000 £120,000 £130,000 £140,000 £150,000 Requirements for Intermediate Tenure (pa) Total households in need and newly forming households
Adwick 44.7 39.1 38.1 29.9 29.3 24.9 20.7 20.2 18.6 11.6 11.3 2
Armthorpe 44.3 37.3 35.3 26.3 25.0 23.0 21.4 20.6 20.4 16.9 16.4 3
Askern Spa 46.7 36.4 32.0 29.9 23.4 19.0 17.8 17.1 17.0 13.9 13.6 5
Balby 36.7 27.2 21.5 19.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 9.5 5.1 4.8 0.2 1
Bentley 21.3 13.1 12.4 7.6 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.5 2.6 1.3 6
788
683
553
705
1022
750
1260
890
597
690
449
Hatfield 39.9 27.9 23.3 15.5 14.4 12.6 11.3 10.5 10.4 10.0 9.6 6
Mexborough 39.2 32.5 24.6 14.9 14.4 13.6 9.5 5.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 0
Stainforth and Moorends 38.5 24.8 23.9 22.7 22.2 21.3 16.7 16.3 16.3 16.1 15.9 3
Thorne 35.3 30.4 28.9 27.0 26.1 24.7 19.4 12.9 8.6 8.4 3.9 4
Torne Valley 46.8 39.7 37.6 32.2 30.9 28.9 27.3 23.7 23.6 23.2 22.7 4
Town Moor 32.1 23.4 21.8 19.8 15.3 6.6 5.4 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.0 2
Wheatley 26.6 24.2 19.8 15.2 14.5 13.4 9.3 8.8 8.7 6.8 6.6 2
Total 41.7 33.5 29.9 25.3 23.1 20.2 17.7 15.6 14.3 12.8 12.0 59
723
831
627
636
565
667
821
14716
% All households who could afford Great North Road equity share of: 55.3 £50,000 46.4 £60,000 42.2 £70,000 34.2 £80,000 33.2 £90,000 28.7 £100,000 21.5 £110,000 17.8 £120,000 17.7 £130,000 17.4 £140,000 15.8 £150,000 Requirements for Intermediate Tenure (pa) 4 Total households in need and newly forming households 654
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Rossington Sprotbrough 50.7 70.8 39.7 59.3 31.3 52.8 27.2 51.1 23.6 45.1 22.7 43.8 19.1 42.8 15.7 40.5 15.6 40.4 9.4 38.4 9.2 38.1 3 2 506
299
Central 30.9 27.3 24.5 20.0 18.9 14.9 13.6 12.9 10.4 10.1 9.7 4
Conisbrough and Denaby 26.0 19.3 14.0 12.4 11.6 6.3 5.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 1
Edenthorpe, Kirk Edlington Sandall and and Barnby Dun Warmsworth Finningley 53.7 42.6 72.0 42.2 31.9 60.1 39.9 23.9 58.5 37.0 22.8 52.9 28.9 22.3 43.3 24.0 21.5 41.7 20.9 20.9 40.5 17.3 18.8 38.4 17.1 7.9 38.3 16.7 7.7 38.0 16.2 7.5 37.7 3 1 2
Bessacarr and Cantley 53.7 46.0 43.5 38.0 36.4 30.5 28.6 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.1 2
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Table 7.6
What is affordable to households on the basis of income alone.
% of households who could afford based on income alone % All households who could afford equity share of: £50,000 £60,000 £70,000 £80,000 £90,000 £100,000 £110,000 £120,000 £130,000 £140,000 £150,000 Requirements for Intermediate Tenure (pa) Total households in need and newly forming households
Adwick 38.1 29.6 27.0 21.2 12.2 11.7 11.3 11.1 3.9 3.9 3.5 2
Armthorpe 39.6 28.4 26.4 21.3 16.9 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 11.0 10.2 3
Askern Spa 30.6 14.3 12.6 11.3 7.3 6.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.5 5
Balby 36.0 24.3 13.4 7.6 6.9 6.2 5.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 1
Bentley 18.9 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 6
788
683
553
705
1022
750
1260
890
597
690
449
Hatfield 36.2 20.9 16.3 12.1 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 2.7 6
Mexborough 45.3 19.4 18.6 12.7 8.6 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 0.0 0
Stainforth and Moorends 45.9 23.1 18.3 17.6 13.2 12.8 12.4 8.3 8.2 8.2 7.8 3
Thorne 33.8 22.6 17.5 11.9 11.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 4
Torne Valley 49.7 31.0 29.0 23.3 19.2 15.2 11.5 11.1 9.7 9.7 8.9 4
Town Moor 37.7 24.3 18.7 17.5 12.6 7.9 7.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 2
Wheatley 29.3 15.8 10.9 6.2 5.6 5.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 2
Total 38.5 22.7 18.6 15.1 11.6 9.3 7.6 6.0 4.9 4.4 3.5 59
723
831
627
636
565
667
821
14716
% All households who could afford Great North Road equity share of: 47.8 £50,000 33.1 £60,000 25.4 £70,000 24.1 £80,000 16.8 £90,000 16.1 £100,000 9.0 £110,000 8.7 £120,000 8.4 £130,000 8.4 £140,000 7.8 £150,000 Requirements for Intermediate Tenure (pa) 4 Total households in need and newly forming households 654
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Rossington Sprotbrough 38.8 61.5 20.3 47.7 16.4 40.6 9.5 33.6 9.0 32.9 8.6 32.2 5.2 31.7 2.0 25.6 1.9 25.4 1.9 19.6 1.5 13.2 3 2 506
299
Central 24.6 15.3 13.7 12.3 8.9 8.1 7.4 7.1 4.3 4.3 3.7 4
Conisbrough and Denaby 26.1 13.6 8.0 7.0 6.3 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 1
Edenthorpe, Kirk Edlington Sandall and and Barnby Dun Warmsworth Finningley 47.2 38.4 67.7 27.2 13.3 46.2 25.0 4.4 39.3 20.3 3.7 32.5 16.3 3.3 27.8 12.4 2.9 19.1 7.3 2.6 18.5 4.0 0.4 14.3 0.9 0.3 10.2 0.9 0.3 10.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 3 1 2
Bessacarr and Cantley 45.9 30.3 25.5 22.2 17.2 16.0 15.0 13.3 12.9 7.0 6.0 2
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
7.26
In summary, this analysis shows that an intermediate market would be restricted to an equity element of £50-£60,000. This could be afforded by around 33.5% of households if savings/equity is included and afforded by 22.7% of households if only income is taken into account.
7.27
Within Doncaster, there are several areas where intermediate tenure prices could be higher. For instance, in Bessacarr and Cantley on the basis of savings/equity and income, up to 30% of households could afford an equity element of up to £100,000.
7.28
Clearly, survey evidence suggests that intermediate tenure developments are feasible in Doncaster and there is interest in them. The cost of the equity element will need to be carefully considered. Borough-wide evidence suggests a target equity element of £50-£60,000, but in some areas this could be higher. Type of intermediate tenure
7.29
The household questionnaire asked respondents to state tenure preferences. Table 7.7 shows that a range of intermediate tenure properties would suit the preferences of existing and newly forming households. This shows strongest preference for shared ownership amongst both existing and newly forming households. Table 7.7
Intermediate tenure preferences
Option
7.30
Existing Households In Need Preference
Newly Forming Household Preference 42.5
Shared ownership (newbuild homebuy)
40.0
Open Market Homebuy
29.9
24.0
Discounted Home Ownership
30.0
33.5
Base (stated preferences)
3329
950
The actual price for an equity stake in a property will need further clarification depending upon location, type of intermediate tenure scheme and developer involvement. Evidence suggests that across Doncaster there is an appetite for intermediate tenure dwellings and provision will help diversify affordable dwelling stock.
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Justifying the Need for Affordable Housing 7.31
A technical assessment of housing requirements based on the CLG Housing Needs Methodology has identified an annual shortfall of 224 dwellings per annum. LDF planning policies should be seeking to address an element of the need identified, paying
particular
attention
to
overall
RSS
allocations,
likely
development
opportunities and RSL development programmes and allocations. Over the past 5 years, around 433 affordable dwellings have been built in Doncaster (87 pa average), suggesting that the scale of affordable housing development would have to more than double to satisfy identified requirements. 7.32
There are a number of contextual factors which help support the case for affordable housing provision across Doncaster: Affordable housing supply and demand Although Doncaster has got a good provision of social rented stock (19.7% of all dwellings), the total number of social rented lettings made to new tenants has fallen dramatically over the recent past. In 2001/2, 2843 lettings were made to new tenants and in 2005/6, this figure had fallen by over 40% to 1,634. There are some problems of low demand, difficult to let and vacant stock. However, this relates to particular property types and particular areas and should not detract from the overall strategic priority to increase provision of affordable housing. There has been a dramatic increase in the number of households on the Housing Waiting list, which on 1st April 2006 stood at 16,760, an increase of 40.4% on the previous year’s figure. The number of households accepted as homeless was 256 in 2004 and 237 in 2005; with just under 4,000 decisions taken on whether a household was homeless in these years. General Market conditions House prices have risen dramatically over the past 5 years, with an average Borough-wide figure of £126,113 for 200631. House price increases have had a profound impact on the first time buyer market. Lower Quartile house prices of around £76,000 are unaffordable to the vast majority of newly-forming households (81.6%). Private renting is also relatively unaffordable, with 74.1% of newly forming households not able to afford a private rent of £350pcm (assuming no more than 25% of gross income is spent on rental costs).
31
Source: Land Registry
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
6.7% of households in the year preceding the household survey have provided temporary accommodation for someone who did not have a home. Strategic Considerations The Regional Housing Strategy sub-regional priorities for South Yorkshire focus on the need for market restructuring, with an emphasis on diversifying stock types and tenures to counteract long-standing issues of poor stock condition and low demand. However, this research demonstrates that affordability is an increasing issue for households across Doncaster Given the uplift in market prices in recent years, market restructuring activity as well as general developments should include an element of new affordable housing, in particular intermediate tenure stock, to help diversify stock profiles; Strategically, new affordable provision is needed to facilitate market restructuring and help offset identified needs. General market demand 7.33
The aspirations of households planning to move within the general market in the next year were reviewed. These are summarised in Table 7.8 which shows: A strong preference for houses (particularly detached and semi-detached), a preference for a range of property sizes, most notably three bedroom (45.3%) An interest in bungalows, particularly two and three bedroom Some interest in flats/apartments, particularly two bedroom
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Table 7.8
Household aspirations (existing households planning to move)
Property Type House
Equivalsed % 61.5
Flat/Apartment
11.2
Bungalow
27.3
Total Base: 10984.
100.0
Property subtype Detached Semi-Detached Terraced (Smaller) Terraced (Larger) Townhouse Total Ground Floor First Floor+ Maisonette Total Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Total
Equivalsed % 37.2 34.7 6.7 14.1 7.2 100.0 45.8 32.8 21.4 100.0 47.7 37.7 14.6
No. Beds Two Three
Equivalised % 20.1 45.3
Four Five or more
26.7 7.8
One Two Three Bedsit/Studio Total One Two Three Four or more
100.0 18.8 56.2 23.0 2.0 100.0 10.2 43.6 32.2 13.9 100
100
Note: Eqivalised %. Respondents could tick all relevant options. Options were then analysed and results were equivalised i.e. rebased to 100%. As an example, 79.9% considered a house, 14.4% a flat and 35.4% a bungalow (=129.8%). If rebased to 100%, the figures are 61.5%, 11.2% Flat and 27.3% bungalows .
7.34
The general market aspirations of newly-forming households are summarised in Table 7.9. This shows a strong desire for owning a house and to a lesser extent flats with high level of aspirations for two bedroom properties. Table 7.9
Household aspirations (newly-forming households)
Property Type % Flat 27.9 House 56.9 Bungalow 15.2
Property Size % One/Studio 21.2 Two 42.9 Three 31.6 Four 4.3 Base: 4322 newly forming households 7.35
Market demand from existing households, newly-forming households and in-migrant households have been reconciled with likely supply based on turnover rates in the preceding five years. This helps identify areas where there are imbalances in the provision of general market accommodation and illustrated in Table 7.10. In summary, analysis of general market supply and demand suggests: Across Doncaster, there is a degree of market pressure, with particular shortfalls of flats and bungalows relative to demand.
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Housing Requirements in Doncaster
Regarding flats, there is a relatively low supply which results in a particular mismatch in supply and demand across Doncaster. However, this is not a signal for large-scale flat/apartment development. Rather, it points to the need an element of flat/apartment dwellings in newbuild programmes, but this must be carefully market tested. There is a good provision of houses, but shortfalls of detached properties are noted in several wards including Adwick, Finningley, Great North Road, Town Moor and Whatley. There is an undersupply of smaller units across the Borough. There are pressures on the private rented sector in several areas including Adwick, Conisbrough and Denaby, Finningley and Town Moor. 7.36
This information should help inform development priorities in specific areas to help maintain the relatively balanced housing markets across Doncaster
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70
Housing Requirements in Doncaster Table 7.10
Review of general market supply and demand Ward
Property type
Property Tenur size e
Adwick
Property Tenur size e
Balby
Bentley
Conisbrough Edenthorpe, Edlington and and Denaby Kirk Sandall Warmsworth Finningley
Total Owner Occupied Private Rented One Two Three Four or more Detached Hse Semi Det Hse Terraced Hse Flat (inc bedsits) Bungalow Ward Great North Road
Property type
Armthorpe Askern Spa
Bessacarr and Cantley Central
Hatfield
Stainforth and Mexborough Rossington Sprotbrough Moorends Thorne
Torne Valley Town Moor Wheatley
Doncaster Total
Total Owner Occupied Private Rented One Two Three Four or more Detached Hse Semi Det Hse Terraced Hse Flat (inc bedsits) Bungalow
Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied
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71
Housing Requirements of Different Household Groups BME Housing Needs 7.37
The household survey identified 1,919 households which included residents who described themselves other than White British. Of these household, 590 (30.7%) were in some form of housing need. This is considerably greater than the overall average of 7.6%.
7.38
The nature of housing need amongst BME households is summarised in Table 7.11. This is compared with need from households headed by someone describing themselves as ‘White British’ which is the predominant ethnicity, and also information on need across all households. Table 7.11
Main Category
BME Housing Need Sub-divisions
Homeless households or with insecure tenure
Under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an end Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense Overcrowded according to the 'bedroom standard' model Mismatch of housing need and Too difficult to maintain dwellings Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom or wc with another household Household containing people with mobility impairment or other speial needs living in unsuitable accommodation Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and Dwelling amenities and condition household does not have resource to make fit Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have resource to make fit Harasment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move Social needs Total Households with one or more housing need(s) Base (total households)
BME Households % BME Frequency HHs
White British Frequency
% White British HHs
All Households % All Frequency Households
34
1.8
490
0.4
586
0.5
62
3.2
1316
1.1
1383
1.1
37 250
1.9 13.0
1211 2547
1.0 2.2
1436 2601
1.2 2.1
35
1.8
585
0.5
654
0.5
116
6.0
2519
2.2
2640
2.1
19
1.0
64
0.1
64
0.1
56
2.9
767
0.7
881
0.7
190 590 1919
9.9 30.7
2152 8836 117000
1.8 7.6
2298 9412
1.9 7.6 123483
Summary 7.39
This chapter has considered overall dwelling requirements across Doncaster. Robust evidence of the need for affordable housing has been presented and analysis of the open market has shown where there are imbalances in demand and supply.
7.40
In terms of affordable housing requirements, DCLG Needs Assessment Modelling identifies an annual shortfall of 224 dwellings per annum across Doncaster. The principal requirement is for smaller dwellings, but a need for larger three or more bedroom properties is evidenced through waiting list information. An appropriate balance needs to be struck in terms of: 72
Property size Provision of smaller (one/two bedroom) stock should be within the range of 7095% of all new affordable development. It is envisaged that the majority of smaller stock should be two bedrooms, taking into account the current oversupply of one bedroom properties currently in Doncaster which no longer meet needs. Two bedroom properties are more likely to provide a more sustainable house type and meet needs. Provision of three or more bedroom stock should be within the range of 5-30% of all new affordable development. Tenure There is a need to diversify the tenure of affordable housing by introducing intermediate tenure options. Overall, a tenure split of 26.2% intermediate and 73.8% social rented is suggested, although this varies by sub-area. Having reviewed income levels and access to equity/savings, an equity element of around £50,000 to £60,000 is most affordable to households across Doncaster, although in some areas, this equity element could increase to £100,000. 7.41
Doncaster Council has got a good track record in working with partners to secure additional affordable housing. Given the scale of affordable requirements identified, the scale of development (around 87 dwellings per annum) must be maintained but if possible significantly increased.
7.42
In terms of the general housing market: Aspirations are generally traditional, with strongest preferences for two and three bedrooms houses. Preferences for two and three bedroom bungalows are also apparent. There are aspirations towards flats/apartments, particularly two bedroom, and from newly-forming households. As there is limited opportunity to access this type of accommodation, there is currently a supply/demand imbalance. However, any developments need to be carefully market tested to avoid the ‘swamping’ of the housing market with this dwelling type. There are pressures on the private rented sector in several areas including Adwick, Conisbrough and Denaby, Finningley and Town Moor.
7.43
BME housing needs have been highlighted in the survey as considerable higher than other households. Work to understand these needs further and identify how they can be met is required.
73
8.0
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
8.1
One of the main reasons for undertaking the Local Housing Market Assessment in Doncaster is to inform the development of Doncaster’s Local Development Framework (LDF), particularly the Housing Development Plan Document. The main issues which need to be addressed in the emerging document are: The mix of type and tenure of housing The location of new development Affordability and Housing Need Approach to investment in housing and neighbourhoods Influencing the mix of type and tenure of housing
8.2
PPS 3 confirms the government goal to plan to deliver mixed communities and what this should mean in terms of planning for a mix of tenures and housing types within new developments. The government’s main aim is the delivery of mixed communities which provide a choice of good quality housing with a mix of different types and tenure, provision of affordable housing and neighbourhoods which offer a good range of community facilities, access to jobs, key services and infrastructure32.
8.3
In order for Doncaster to deliver this agenda and ensure that planning policy helps to provide mixed communities, it will be important that new housing developments do not continue to or create concentrations of disadvantage characterised by a particular tenure type, with similar household characteristics.
8.4
If the type of housing and associated infrastructure (schools, high quality environments, safe areas) to meet aspirations is not provided then there is the risk that the past trends of the urban rural shift will continue, resulting in a continuation of commuting patterns. It is important to provide the right type of housing in a high quality environment so Doncaster can fully compete in the region and to avoid migration and out-commuting.
8.5
It is important to acknowledge that neighbourhoods have certain characteristics which make them popular and this is part of the nature of a housing market which provides
32
Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) November 2006 74
choice and variety. This has been highlighted though the identification of the housing market typologies which give the characteristics of particular areas and the contributing factors which make them popular.’ 8.6
It will be important to ensure that new housing is supported by investment into existing neighbourhoods alongside new developments to create popular sustainable neighbourhoods.
Recommendation 1 Doncaster should invest in the quality of neighbourhoods in relation to their environmental quality and the services/facilities they provide, alongside the provision of new housing to create neighbourhoods with a mix of types and tenure of housing 8.7
Doncaster’s rural areas have characteristics which are similar to the adjacent areas of North Lincolnshire and North Nottinghamshire; more open space, higher proportion of detached houses and corresponding higher house prices. However, whilst there is a need to allow private house builders some freedom to supply housing based on market intelligence, Doncaster MBC should guide development to ensure balanced communities in terms of tenure, house type and affordability. This will continue to be achieved affectively, particularly through the emerging LDF.
Recommendation 2 The character of Doncaster’s rural areas should be preserved to enable these areas to compete with adjacent rural authorities. ‘Executive’ housing in these areas should be promoted alongside providing a range of houses, including Affordable Housing, and tenures to allow local, particularly young, residents to access the market. Such provision should take into account the LDR process and affordable housing provision will need to be considered on a site-by-site basis. 8.8
The market for new housing is strongly influenced by the economy and house builders generally ensure housing imbalances do not occur through building unpopular housing or housing that does not meet market demand. Therefore there is the need for Doncaster to allow private house builders and developers to continue to have a level of freedom to supply housing based on their intelligence. However, Doncaster MBC should aim to guide development in areas where there is the need to create a more balanced housing market in terms of house type, tenure and affordability. This may mean limiting executive type developments in certain areas and aiming to secure a better mix of housing across the Borough to deliver balanced sustainable communities.
75
8.9
It will be important to improve housing choice as this could help to improve the attractiveness of these areas to higher skilled workers who will be needed in Doncaster to contribute to achieving increased economic growth targets. Creating a more balanced housing market in the inner suburbs and social suburbs will also contribute to creating mixed communities through a housing market which provides choice for a range of households.
8.10
The Housing Needs Analysis has highlighted that in terms of the general market demand for those households considering moving, there are a number of points which need to be considered. These include: Strong preference across areas for houses, mainly detached and semidetached, a range of sizes, most notably three bedroom (45.3%) Some demand for bungalows, particularly smaller one (10.2%) /two bedrooms (43.6%) and three bedroom (32.2%) Some interest in flats/apartments (only 11.2% would consider them), particularly smaller one (18.8%) /two bedrooms (56.2%)
8.11
An element of caution is needed in relation to the size of properties promoted and encouraged. There is a need to invest in areas where 3 bedroom properties dominate to ensure they meet demand for this size of property. There is currently a significant supply of 3 bedroom properties in Doncaster.
8.12
Although a preference has been indicated for one and two bedroom properties, Doncaster already has an oversupply of smaller/one bedroom properties (including bedsits), which no longer meet aspirations, therefore it is suggested new developments should focus on two bedroom properties rather than increasing the supply of one bedroom properties. Where there is a demand for smaller properties (one/two bedrooms), this is predominantly from households requiring affordable housing to access the market.
Recommendation 3 General market housing should be focused on two bedroom properties or greater, predominantly detached and semi detached. A limited supply of one bedroom properties should be allowed. The provision of one bedroomed properties should generally be left to the private market, although one bedroomed affordable accommodation should be considered for specific groups as needs arise such as student accommodation or extra-care provision for the elderly.
76
8.13
Flats/apartments have been identified as a type of housing which is growing in popularity and although not identified by a large number of Doncaster residents, the market demand analysis has indicated some level of demand (11%) higher than the supply within the urban core. The flat/apartment market in Doncaster is relatively untested and as such needs to be closely monitored to ensure that it does not generate an imbalance in terms of house type and tenure. Monitoring should include quarterly flat prices and information gathered from private developers on the popularity of new developments and the type of buyers of new flats/apartments, to monitor the dominance of the buy-to-let market.
Recommendation 4 Given the emerging demand for this untested market it is recommended that flats/apartments should make up no more than 10% of the overall housing supply in Doncaster over the next five years. The flat/apartment market in Doncaster should be monitored particularly focusing on; house prices, success of new developments and the tenure flats/apartments are sold onto. Demand for student accommodation in particular, will need to be closely monitored with a view to revising the 10% figure should the need arise. 8.14
The Core Strategy of the LDF has already identified the main areas for growth within Doncaster to 2021. These areas correlate closely to the areas where the demand analysis has highlighted a mismatch between supply and demand, especially the imbalance between the supply and demand of detached properties. The exceptions are in Finningley and Bessacarr where the mismatch is likely to be driven by their popularity in terms of its housing and neighbourhood offer, resulting in housing market pressure, which may be fuelled by further development, to the detriment of the need for new housing in other areas. There is therefore a need to limit development in these types of areas and promote other areas as the focus for new development, to ensure there is investment across Doncaster, rather than focusing on popular areas.
8.15
In the areas of Adwick, Great North Road, Town Moor and Wheatley consideration needs to be given to an investment programme which tackles environmental and neighbourhood facilities. It will not only be important to diversify the house types (e.g. detached, semi-detached, town houses) available but the size of houses which are available. Three bedrooms currently dominate these areas, with a very small proportion of smaller and larger properties. Therefore there are limitations within these markets for newly forming households to enter the housing market and similar constraints for people moving up the housing ladder.
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8.16
A clear framework is needed to reflect the principles of the ‘plan, monitor, manage’ set out within PPS3 and the RSS. Adopting this approach will ensure that the success of delivering housing market renewal is not impacted upon by the untimely release of land elsewhere. Policy CS-H1 of Doncaster’s Core Strategy already establishes six principles in the way housing land will be provided and developed in Doncaster up to 2021 which should guide a strong ‘plan, monitor, manage’ approach.
Recommendation 5 Doncaster should focus on strengthening less popular housing markets through encouraging new housing which improves the mix and choice of housing. The quality of environment and improved access to services should also be a focus for improvement in these areas. 8.17
It will be important to ensure that future housing developments are aligned with key employment sites and transport links focusing on the urban core and housing market renewal areas. This will ensure that there is no further growth in out migration patterns and volumes of current travel to work patterns. Ensuring development takes place close to key employment locations and transport hubs will promote more sustainable communities in areas where there is a need for investment and renewal. This will create attractive communities with a good mix of housing on offer which will help to prevent the high numbers of out migration which has been experienced in the past.
Recommendation 6 New housing developments should be promoted in sustainable locations with access to key employment and transport hubs so as to reduce travel to work patterns whilst recognising that new developments should be in accordance with the LDF and Regional Spatial Strategy. Affordability and Housing Need 8.18
Affordability in Doncaster is not new; it has been exacerbated by the increase in house prices and therefore affects more people now. The Local Housing Market Assessment has identified that there is an affordable housing requirement in Doncaster of 224 dwellings per annum (1,120 affordable dwellings over the period from April 2007 to March 2012), equating to 26% affordable housing based on the RSS net additions of 855 per annum. Doncaster needs to consider how best these affordable dwellings will be provided.
8.19
Over the past five years, around 433 affordable units have been built in Doncaster (an average of 87 per annum), therefore the scale of affordable housing development 78
would have to more than double over the next five years to satisfy the requirements which have been identified through the HMA. The issue of affordability in Doncaster is relatively new, brought about by the recent house price increases which are now impacting on the ability of first time buyers and emerging households being able to access the housing market. 8.20
Flexibility will be required in applying these targets depending on particular site characteristics. There may be a need to identify particular site sizes where specific affordable housing targets are identified or on some sites a lower affordable element of provision is required where the development is on land that requires costly remediation or significant infrastructure requirements.
8.21
The survey findings highlight that there is a degree of interest from residents for the intermediate housing market such as shared ownership/shared equity. Creating mixed and balanced communities requires careful planning not to create areas of mono-tenure. Therefore although some additional social housing provision will help meet affordable housing requirements, it is important that Doncaster consider the intermediate housing market as part of their affordable housing strategy. It is envisaged that an overall tenure split for affordable housing should be 26% intermediate and 74% social rented.
8.22
It is likely that intermediate tenure may increase in popularity as accessing the housing market becomes increasingly difficult and promotion of this tenure becomes wider.
Recommendation 7 The Housing Needs Assessment has identified Doncaster’s affordable housing requirement as 224 per annum, 26% of net allocation. The nature of affordable provision should be made up from a mix of intermediate housing tenure and social rented; approximately 26/74% respectively. This should also take into account the need for perpetuity of affordable housing, as set out within PPS 3. 8.23
Further work will be required by Doncaster to identify the actual price for an equity stake in a property, however ÂŁ50,000 to ÂŁ60,000 is affordable to most households in Doncaster. This will depend on the location, the type of intermediate tenure scheme and developer involvement. It is recommended that Doncaster develop a range of intermediate housing options which will inform negotiations with developers during the development of planning applications for particular sites.
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8.24
In terms of the property size of affordable housing, the dominant size should be two bedrooms, making up 70-95% of all new affordable developments. Provision of three or more bedroom stock should be within a range of 5-30% of all new affordable development.
Recommendation 8 In terms of number of bedrooms, the majority of affordable housing in Doncaster should be split between two bedrooms, making up between 70-95% of all affordable housing developments, and three bedrooms, making up between 5-30% of all affordable housing developments. 8.25
The affordable housing requirements identified through the survey, provide an understanding of where geographically within the Doncaster housing market affordable provision should be targeted. There is only a small need identified for specific older person affordable units in Doncaster, identified in the affordable housing requirement table 7.1 in section 7 of this report. This is based on the capacity of the social rented sector i.e. what is being let/where/size/designation, in line with CLG guidance.
8.26
The following areas are identified for general affordable housing, together with their annual shortfall of affordable units: Bentley - 24 Hatfield - 21 Torne Valley - 15 Great North Road - 14 Central - 15 Askern Spa – 14
8.27
The affordable requirements take account of the existing general needs and older persons’ affordable dwellings and compares this supply with the identified requirements for affordable housing from existing households in need and newly forming households. Further detail on the calculations used to reach these numbers can be found in Appendix A.
8.28
It is recommended that affordable housing targets on key sites are set within these particular areas. Most areas in Doncaster require some element of affordable
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housing, therefore it may be more appropriate to identify site sizes where specific targets for affordable housing need to be achieved. Recommendation 9 Site specific targets for affordable provision should be set for identified geographic locations. A site size threshold should be developed where affordable housing is a requirement, this will ensure the requirement of 224 affordable units per annum is achieved. A range of options should be considered and tested out through the consultation process on the LDF. Approach to Housing and Neighbourhood Investment 8.29
The Regional Housing Strategy sub-regional priorities for South Yorkshire focus on the need for housing market restructuring, with an emphasis on diversifying stock tenures to counteract long-standing issues of poor stock condition and low demand. An important element of this will be ensuring that existing stock receives where possible, tenure blind investment and neighbourhoods are improved to become attractive living environments.
8.30
Research has shown that people aspire to live in high quality environments in close proximity to a range of services and amenities. Also ‘quality of life’ factors have played an important role in the renaissance of successful cities. Creating a high quality place should be a key objective for Doncaster, to contribute to population growth, attracting new businesses and becoming a competitive location within South Yorkshire.
8.31
Across much of Doncaster there is an adequate supply of housing to meet demand. However, some of the characteristics of the housing market typologies highlight that the quality of life issues rather than the existing housing stock which result in unpopularity. A programme of investment is required which will cover: Encouraging owners to invest in their properties or carry out maintenance which they cannot currently afford Continue to invest in social properties to meet Decent Homes Standard Investment in schools, services and facilities which will contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of residents in some areas and create communities where new residents will consider moving to Supporting housing market renewal initiatives with investment within areas identified for regeneration to bolster the market impact of more significant change 81
8.32
A number of areas have been identified where investment should be targeted, these are: Central Bentley Adwick Stainforth/Moorends Wheatley
8.33
Alongside helping to improve the quality of housing and facilities, there is a need to tackle some of the social issues which are currently affecting these communities. Especially issues around and linked to anti-social behaviour. It is recommended that a review is undertaken into how services are provided in these areas and identify the issues
which
should
be
tackled
which
would
lead
to
improved
neighbourhood/community management. 8.34
Conisbrough, Mexborough and Edlington are also identified as areas where there are significant neighbourhood issues and dissatisfaction from residents. It is envisaged that these will be tackled through the work of the Pathfinder alongside their housing renewal process which is being undertaken. Support will be needed to ensure these issues are improved.
Recommendation 10 Doncaster should target its strategic housing investment to support the creation of sustainable communities as part of the area and neighbourhood planning process.
Plan, Monitor, Manage 8.35
Establish systems to monitor economic growth, population and household growth and the type and tenure of housing being built to inform future demand/supply analysis. Recommendation 11 It is recommended that DMBC should develop a monitoring framework of key indicators to measure the success of meeting housing needs, which can be reviewed annually.
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Typology Recommendations 8.36
The challenge for the Council is to develop appropriate local policies to deliver the recommendations for each housing market typology. These should be developed within the following contextual recommendations.
Recommendation: Peripheral Coalfield Communities Recognise the pockets of disadvantage within this area and consider the provision of affordable housing to ensure that households have the opportunity to enter the housing market and housing is diversified to meet local needs. Ensure transport links are improved to promote connectivity to the urban core and strategic employment locations.
Recommendation: Social Suburb Support the implementation of housing market renewal through a combination of demolition, new build and investment in housing and neighbourhood factors.
Recommendation: Affluent Suburb Control the type and level of development, and direct any public realm investment to maintain the character which makes Bessacarr and Sprotbrough popular and prosperous.
Recommendation: Rural Centre Support the implementation of renewal plans in this area and work with developers to ensure that the right mix of housing is developed including providing housing to meet the specific needs of the local community, i.e. elderly and affordable housing.
Recommendation: Prosperous Suburb Development sites identified here should help to deliver a mix of housing which creates balanced/mixed communities. This will be achieved through identifying potential site/sites where ‘executive’ housing should be considered for higher skilled workers and areas where affordable housing targets should be set. Sites should be located in close proximity to transport and employment hubs. Establish the case for lower densities if required.
Recommendation: Rural Hinterland Preserve the existing housing character of this area by limiting new development. Any development coming forward should aim to provide ‘executive’
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housing which would expand the housing offer of these already popular areas. Consideration should also be given to providing affordable housing for locals, to allow them to remain in the area and access the housing market if they wish.
Recommendation: Urban Core The target housing market for these areas should be young single/couple professional households. The focus should be on providing smaller (two bedroom) apartments and some houses which appeal to first time buyers or intermediate housing market, whether shared equity or private rented. This will be achieved by ensuring that the right housing supply is developed which meets the needs of these households and is supported by the lifestyle ‘offer’ of the urban core. Closely monitor the relatively untested apartment/flat market to ensure that it does not create an imbalance in supply and tenure.
Recommendation: Inner Suburb Work with developers to ensure that an appropriate type and mix of tenure is developed to create a mixed and balanced community which attracts new residents. Investment in older housing stock and the environment to create a more attractive overall neighbourhood offer.
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Appendix A
APPENDIX A
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