Bitcoin Slides Below $110k; Alts Face Further Turbulence Bitcoin has broken below $110,000, notably undercutting even its January 2025 high of $109,590. This is a level that has served as resistance for more than six months before it was first breached in July. This pullback is in line with our thesis that in the summer months BTC is likely to be prone to retracements and range trading. BTC is now down over 13 percent from its recent all-time highs, and while trading below the January peak is not an encouraging signal, we believe the market is nearing the bottom of this downturn as we move into September.
Figure 1. BTC/USD 4H Chart. Source: Bitfinex)
Since the beginning of 2023, when arguably the current bull run commenced, we have seen pullbacks from cycle highs averaging around 17 percent peak-to-trough, before a new all-time high is eventually established. This suggests that while some downside may still be ahead, BTC is approaching the upper limit of its typical corrective drawdowns. Seasonality also favours this view: September has often marked cyclical lows in post-halving years, providing the foundation for a renewed rally into the fourth quarter. Taken together, these factors point towards the market being in the late stages of its corrective phase, with conditions aligning for a potential Q4 recovery rally once selling pressure is absorbed.