Stronger GDP Masks Weak Business Activity as Tariffs and Inflation Weigh on US Outlook The US economy presents a complicated picture as government data points to stronger growth, while regional business surveys reveal signs of weakness.
Figure 8. Real GDP, Percent Change From Preceding Quarter US Bureau of Economic Analysis) Last Thursday, Aug. 28th, the Commerce Departmentʼs Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product GDP. The economy grew at a 3.3 percent annualised pace, up from the initial 3 percent reading. The revision reflected a rebound in profits, and robust business investment in intellectual property and equipment. Intellectual property investment, particularly in artificial intelligence, surged at a 12.8 percent rate—the fastest in four years—while equipment investment was revised higher to a 7.4 percent pace.
Figure 9. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP for Q2, 2025 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis)