Cooling Job Growth, Stagnant Services, and a Productivity Lifeline The US economy is delicately balanced between resilience and slowdown. Job creation is losing momentum, services activity is stagnating, and businesses remain cautious, yet layoffs are still restrained and productivity has rebounded. This mix of signals suggests the labour market is shifting from rapid post-pandemic growth to a more subdued phase, where opportunities are fewer, but the overall system has not tipped into contraction.
Figure 11. Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims Source: Macromicro)
Initial unemployment claims rose by 7,000 to 226,000 in the week ending August 2, the highest in a month, according to the US Department of Labor. While this slight uptick indicates some cooling, the figures remain within a stable range seen over the past 10 weeks, pointing to a “no hire, no fireˮ environment. Continued claims—reflecting those still receiving benefits after their first week—climbed to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021. This signals that workers who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new ones, highlighting the growing mismatch between job seekers and available openings.