Figure 9. Manufactured Goods - New Orders Source: US Census Bureau)
Meanwhile, the latest Census Bureau data shows that new orders for manufactured goods in June fell by $30.9 billion, or 4.8 percent, to $611.7 billion, marking declines in two of the last three months. This followed an 8.3 percent increase in May. With a narrow window to secure holiday-season goods before tariffs take effect, businesses must navigate a complex environment—balancing higher costs, slowing order growth, and tighter supply timelines. The interaction of trade policy shifts, rising bond risk premiums, and mixed manufacturing trends suggests a more volatile and uncertain close to the year, with potential ripple effects well into 2026.
Figure 10. US Manufacturing Facility Source: National Association of Manufacturers)