Commercial Tire Dealer™
The chaotic world of OTR tires Global tire segment is extremely dependent on markets abroad By Kevin Rohlwing
2008 dealer reported retail statistics — machines
E
dward Lorenz was a noted mathematician and meteorologist who pioneered the study of chaos theory. He determined that when complex systems were entirely dependent on initial conditions, such as the weather, even the smallest changes could yield dramatically different results in the end. His work has been used in the fields of physics, applied mathematics, economics, biology, psychology and meteorology, to name a few. But Lorenz is probably most famous for a paper he entitled, “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” One only needs to look at recent weather patterns that have been attributed to global warming to witness the genius behind his work. When the initial conditions in a complex system are extremely sensitive, even the slightest shift will totally change the outcome. Besides academics and other more intellectual pursuits, chaos theory can also be used to analyze the OTR tire industry. Unlike the passenger, light truck and medium truck tire markets where there are
By marketing region for the three-month rolling period compared to same months of prior year
Period ended
Asia/ Pacific
EAME
Latin America
ROW
North America
World
January
Up 16%
Up 21%
Up 50%
Up 25%
Down 13%
Up 7%
February
Up 11%
Up 18%
Up 43%
Up 20%
Down 15%
Up 4%
March
Up 10%
Up 14%
Up 14%
Up 13%
Down 20%
Down 1%
April
Up 19%
Up 21%
Up 15%
Up 19%
Down 18%
Up 2%
May
Up 24%
Up 9%
Up 11%
Up 13%
Down 17%
Down 1%
June
Up 31%
Up 12%
Up 23%
Up 18%
Down 15%
Up 2%
July
Up 28%
Flat
Up 18%
Up 9%
Down 13%
Down 1%
August
Up 32%
Down 2%
Up 23%
Up 10%
Down 18%
Down 3%
September
Up 32%
Down 4%
Up 34%
Up 11%
Down 13%
Up 1%
October
Up 16%
Down 9%
Up 35%
Up 5%
Down 12%
Down 2%
November
Up 5%
Down 15%
Up 18%
Down 3%
Down 11%
Down 6%
December
Down 13%
Down 20%
Up 11%
Down 12%
Down 21%
Down 15%
only a few applications and the products have almost reached the commodity stage, OTR tires remain highly specialized. The engineering behind these complex tires continues 2007 dealer reported retail statistics — machines to evolve, and while there is tremendous competition By marketing region for the three-month rolling period in other aspects of the tire industry, the OTR segment compared to same months of prior year is relegated to only a handful of manufacturers with the Latin North Period Asia/ resources to build the largest tires on the planet. ROW** America World ended Pacific EAME* America In order to better understand the relationship beJanuary Up 21% Up 27% Flat Up 20% Down 9% Up 4% tween supply and demand for OTR tires, the market February Up 10% Up 32% Up 1% Up 19% Down 10% Up 3% must first be divided into three categories: small, large March Up 20% Up 43% Up 25% Up 32% Down 15% Up 6% and giant. April
Up 16%
Up 32%
Up 29%
Up 27%
Down 14%
Up 4%
May
Up 23%
Up 35%
Up 15%
Up 27%
Down 13%
Up 4%
June
Up 12%
Up 27%
Down 1%
Up 17%
Down 13%
Down 1%
July
Up 16%
Up 32%
Down 5%
Up 19%
Down 14%
Up 1%
August
Up 10%
Up 27%
Flat
Up 17%
Down 9%
Up 3%
September
Up 16%
Up 26%
Up 3%
Up 19%
Down 12%
Up 3%
October
Up 16%
Up 25%
Up 21%
Up 22%
Down 14%
Up 3.5%
November
Up 23%
Up 31%
Up 49%
Up 32%
Down 15%
Up 9%
December
Up 19%
Up 24%
Up 70%
Up 30%
Down 13%
Up 9%
* EAME = Europe, Africa and Middle East ** ROW = Rest of world All chart information provided by Catepillar Inc.
www.moderntiredealer.com MTD_31-39.indd 31
Market segments Small OTR tires are typically defined as those with 24- or 25-inch bead diameters that are primarily used on construction equipment such as small rubber-tire loaders and scrapers. When compared to the other segments in the OTR industry, there are definitely a lot more domestic and foreign manufacturers, so the likelihood of prolonged shortages is relatively small. The large OTR tire market is primarily dedicated to quarry operations and mainly consists of tires with bead diam- Tire restoration: New type of shoulder repair could save money and time . . . 34
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31 4/26/11 11:30:55 AM
