

Market Response to Recent Wildfires
Insights for the Upcoming Hurricane Season
Key Trends in Rates, Capacity, and Terms & Conditions
Line of Business Insights: Personal, Commercial, Casualty, Professional Liability, Transportation, and Environmental
London Market Outlook
Contributor:
Paul G. Smith
Corporate Senior Vice President
H.W. Kaufman Group New York, NY
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Demand for Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance from the non-admitted marketplace continues to accelerate. In 2024, Excess & Surplus (E&S) lines generated over $81 billion in premiums, marking a 12% increase year-over-year. That outpaces the broader U.S. P&C market, which grew by 8% last year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. As more risks fall outside the appetite of admitted carriers, brokers and agents are increasingly turning to the E&S space to deliver creative, customized solutions for their clients.
As we commence Q2, we are closely monitoring the start of wind and storm seasons, wildfire activity, rate movements across all market segments, and key underwriting developments such as increased use of exclusions and stricter risk mitigation expectations. Despite some of the volatility, today’s market offers strategic opportunities for brokers and agents to distinguish themselves through greater reliance on the emerging product offerings of the E&S sector.
The North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1. Researchers at Colorado State University, considered among many as the preeminent source and historically most accurate, are predicting a more active-than-average hurricane season and estimate there will be 17 named storms, 9 of which will become hurricanes. While major hurricanes typically do not strike the U.S. until August or later, an early storm could increase Property rates by this summer.
Despite 18 named storms and five major hurricanes in 2024, Property markets have seen a wave of capital investment. This trend is fueled by high rates, favorable terms for carriers, and expanded exposure appetites. The result: more stable or even declining rates in many non-CAT regions.
At the same time, convective storms—tornadoes, hail, and wind-driven rain—are increasing in both frequency and severity. In March 2024, 100 tornadoes tore through 14 states, including several EF-4 events outside the traditional tornado alley. In January of this year, strong winds reached nearly 100 mph from Alaska to West Texas. These events show that wind risk is now a year-round, nationwide concern.
• Rates are beginning to stabilize or even decline in some non-CAT areas.
• Market capacity remains healthy, particularly in non-admitted spaces, although often through layered placements, which are becoming more common.
• Carriers are increasing reliance on exclusions and higher deductibles to manage risk.
• Wildfire and convective storm risks are driving significant change in both Personal and Commercial Insurance.
• “Home hardening” strategies—such as roof upgrades, defensible space, and water shutoff devices—are increasingly critical to accessing favorable terms.
• While the full impact of U.S. tariffs is uncertain, they likely will cause inflation in some areas, which could impact property valuations, reconstruction costs, and Professional Liability coverage.
The January 2025 wildfires in southern California caused an estimated $30 billion in losses—the largest catastrophic (CAT) wildfire event to date.
While it is still too early to predict the exact impact on the insurance industry, we have learned at least one of the key domestic high-value markets will not return to California. We expect carriers to become even more selective in the types of risks they are willing to insure, limiting coverages, and changing conditions. The California FAIR Plan will continue to write a large portion of risks in the state.
These wildfires also triggered secondary claims—most notably, smoke damage and business interruption. Legal battles over the legitimacy of such claims are likely, particularly given California’s active plaintiff’s bar.
AM Best recently reported that the U.S. P&C industry reversed a $21.3 billion underwriting loss in 2023 to post a $22.9 billion gain in 2024, with a combined ratio improving to 96.6%.
Still, Liability market conditions vary widely.
• Soft Markets: Directors & Officers, Management Liability, and Cyber continue to see rate decreases as new capital boosts capacity.
• Hard Markets: Elder Care, Youth Care, and Special Needs coverage remain constrained due to heightened exposure to abuse and neglect claims—even when unfounded.
• Auto & Excess Umbrella: High-limit placements (e.g., $10M) increasingly require participation from five or more carriers, up from two a few years ago.
• Habitational & Liquor Liability: Sub-limits and exclusions (e.g., Assault & Battery, Firearms) are becoming common in these spaces, especially in high-risk jurisdictions.
The long-term effects of newly imposed U.S. tariffs remain unclear but will likely contribute to rising prices—especially for building materials. Inflation could impact property valuations, reconstruction costs, and professional coverage for contractors and engineers. Burns & Wilcox will continue to track tariff impacts closely in the weeks and months ahead.
Rates have moderated in many P&C Insurance sectors given the added capital from new and existing carriers. Insureds in non-CAT zones with clean loss histories may even see rate reductions. However, markets like Commercial Auto, Habitational, and Liquor Liability remain challenged, with continued upward pressure on rates. Additionally, a single large CAT weather event could immediately shift the Property market back into harder territory— particularly during storm season.
Overall capacity remains strong with few major restrictions. Even so, reaching desired coverage levels—particularly for higher-value properties—often requires participation from multiple carriers. The non-admitted market is especially helpful for hard-to-place risks. Burns & Wilcox maintains broad access to global solutions across sectors, even for complex or loss-heavy accounts.
While the wordings of most policy terms and conditions have remained primarily consistent over time, exclusions and deductibles are increasing. The most common exclusions are Assault & Battery and Firearms, especially in the Hospitality and Habitational sectors.
Brokers and agents should also confirm retro dates for their clients, where applicable, and confirm that terms and conditions do not prevent insureds from securing desired coverage. As always, the devil is in the details, so understanding all terms and conditions is critical before purchasing a policy.
During the Burns & Wilcox P&C Market Outlook: Q2 2025 webinar hosted on April 3, 2025, our industryleading subject matter experts delivered valuable insights into the evolving insurance landscape.
Click here to view the recording > >
In the following, our experts delve deeper into specific sectors within P&C, explore trends, and share outlooks for the year.
Contributor: Pamela Alphabet
Associate Vice President
Regional Practice Group Leader
Personal Insurance
Burns & Wilcox
Scottsdale, AZ
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The increased frequency and severity of CAT weather events continue to have a profound impact on the Personal Insurance market, and we expect this trend to persist.
Convective storm activity, which includes heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and tornadoes, is on the rise. Meteorologists reported nearly 100 tornadoes in the first week of April across the Plains, Midwest, and South. Severe weather in early April also triggered widespread flooding, dumping historic amounts of rainfall in several communities outside of traditional flood zones. Flooding is not covered under most standard Homeowners Insurance policies, so as flooding risks continue, securing Flood coverage is becoming increasingly important.
Wildfire risks also remain elevated across the country, with communities once considered safe now in danger. Researchers estimate 115 million people—more than a third of the U.S. population—reside in areas prone to wildfires.
One third of U.S. residents reside in a wildfire-prone area.
The historic wildfires in southern California earlier this year catalyzed a broader shift in how fire risk is being evaluated, and carriers are further limiting wildfire coverage. (See Introduction for more insights into the potential impact of the January southern California wildfires).
As a result, some markets are reducing Residential Property coverage options. Additionally, there is an increasing prevalence of wind and hail deductibles, roof depreciation schedules and other exclusions. Many carriers are implementing dynamic pricing models, often with premiums adjusted based on real-time data regarding structures and risk scores, especially in volatile zones.
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In this shifting environment, “home hardening” is becoming increasingly mandatory to help mitigate risks. Homeowners seeking favorable coverage terms are increasingly required to invest in measures such as defensible space, roof upgrades, fire-resistant materials, impact-resistant doors and windows, and automatic water shutoff devices. To further assist homeowners, Burns & Wilcox has partnered with Wildfire Defense Systems to provide a range of wildfire mitigation and loss prevention services to policyholders in 12 states.
Despite the continued threat of CAT events, the market remains fluid. Rates are beginning to stabilize or even decline in some nonCAT areas. Solutions are available; however, insureds are facing stricter underwriting requirements including inspections, premium increases, and tailored coverage/limits.
Contributor:
Connor Farquharson Manager
Commercial Insurance
Burns & Wilcox
Dallas/Ft.Worth, TX
Conditions in Commercial Insurance vary widely depending on the class of business and geographic location. Preferred risks with clean histories are seeing rate and deductible reductions. However, coverage remains tight for water damage, wind/hail, and new ventures without loss data.
Assault & Battery (A&B): Sub-limits or outright exclusions for A&B are now standard across several industries, particularly in Hospitality, Habitational, and Liquor-related businesses. Many policies also include language excluding incidents involving firearms.
Auto and Excess Auto: One of the hardest markets within Commercial. Large jury verdicts, rising repair costs, and aggressive plaintiff advertising continue to drive loss trends. Excess placements are particularly difficult, with multiple layers often needed to build limit towers that were previously achievable with just one or two carriers. Burns & Wilcox has a dedicated Transportation Practice Group to assist with hard-to-place risks in this sector.
Habitational: Coverage for apartments, condos, and other multi-family properties remains limited. Underwriters are increasingly wary of fire suppression deficiencies, aging buildings, and Liability claims exposures from allegations of Sexual Abuse and Molestation or A&B. Exclusions for these exposures are becoming commonplace.
Liquor Liability: This segment remains highly distressed, especially in litigious jurisdictions. Many carriers are now placing defense costs inside policy limits, capping available coverage to under $1 million. Excess coverage is scarce, and underwriting is heavily influenced by past claims and venue operations.
Sexual Abuse and Molestation: For any business serving vulnerable populations—such as youth organizations, elder care facilities, or housing for individuals with special needs—underwriters are implementing higher deductibles, tighter underwriting questionnaires, and, increasingly, outright exclusions.
Despite these challenges, some carriers are returning to the market for better-performing risks. In today’s Commercial landscape, flexibility, transparency, and speed are key. While the market is stabilizing in some respects, expertise is more essential than ever to navigate the layered underwriting and specialized risk requirements now in play.
Professional Liability remains one of the most competitive segments in the P&C space—and that trend is expected to hold steady throughout 2025. New carriers continue to enter the market with fresh capacity and broad risk appetites, driving down rates and expanding coverage options across multiple lines.
Rate reductions are now common in Errors & Omissions (E&O), Management Liability, Cyber, and Miscellaneous Professional Liability. Many insureds are also seeing broader policy forms and enhanced terms, making this an opportune time for them to secure favorable coverage.
That said, not all policies are created equal. As competition increases, the temptation to focus solely on price can lead to overlooked exclusions or limitations. Careful evaluation of policy language remains essential, and brokers should continue to prioritize educating clients on the importance of comprehensive coverage over low-cost options.
Contributor: Matt
Baxter
Director Professional Liability, Burns & Wilcox Brokerage Atlanta, GA
Cyber: Stabilizing rates are now the norm for accounts that demonstrate strong cyber hygiene—such as the use of multi-factor authentication, endpoint detection tools, and regular employee training. Accounts with poor controls or recent cyber events still face steep pricing or declinations.
Directors & Officers (D&O): Public company D&O continues to see rate compression, while the private and nonprofit segments are experiencing more moderate and stable pricing. Underwriting focus is shifting toward industry class and organizational governance.
E&O: While the overall market is softening, technology and healthcare accounts remain under close scrutiny. Underwriters are paying particular attention to service descriptions, contract language, and claims-made triggers to assess potential exposure.
In this environment, brokers can offer real value by helping clients navigate coverage nuances and ensuring that terms align with actual risk.
The second quarter of 2025 remains in a hard market, with no signs of softening through year-end. Excess Liability capacity continues to be a challenge, especially within Auto. Many Excess markets are further tightening their capacity, reducing available limits, and, in some cases, requiring higher attachment points.
Environmental Impairment Liability is more critical than ever, and demand for this coverage is growing.
Regarding Environmental Impairment Liability (EIL), also known as Site Pollution Liability Insurance, the increase in environmental claims, especially in high-profile cases, has also continued in 2025. Examples include lawsuits against oil companies for spills, manufacturers for toxic contamination, and developers for land degradation. The outcome of these claims can range from large settlements to massive financial penalties, significantly affecting an organization’s financial stability and reputation.
As a result, EIL is more critical than ever, and demand for this coverage is growing. In 2025, while policy terms may be reduced, capacity is available for both sudden and gradual environmental liabilities, including pollution events, contaminated land, and long-term environmental damage.
For companies in high-risk sectors such as manufacturing, energy, mining, and real estate development, securing robust EIL coverage is essential to mitigating financial exposure. Partnering with an experienced environmental wholesale specialist is critical to navigating the complexities of these types of risk.
Contributor:
Beth Linton Vice President Environmental Underwriting Solutions
A division of Burns & Wilcox Atlanta, GA
The Transportation sector in Q2 continues to face challenges and opportunities. Understanding these nuances is essential to strategically positioning the insured.
Potential tariffs and evolving freight trends in commercial trucking could lead to increased costs, reduced freight volumes, and possible supply disruptions—affecting both trucking companies and consumers. We are closely monitoring this uncertainty, which generally impacts commercial trucking, while also focusing on business auto exposures such as contractors and not-for-hire operations.
Rate increases remain a key factor, along with limited capacity and stricter terms and conditions, especially for large fleets and those with poor loss histories. Social inflation, rising claim costs, and driver shortages drive these trends.
Telematics remains a hot topic in the transportation industry. These systems, which track driving behavior and vehicle performance to improve road safety, are frequently requested by E&S carriers—some even requiring their use. The Burns & Wilcox Transportation Practice Group encourages the use of telematics, which often results in better outcomes for insureds. Additionally, the Practice Group offers deep expertise and access to exclusive solutions, including global markets.
Telematics are frequently requested by E&S carriers— some even requiring their use.
Contributor:
Monica Cantu
Associate Managing Director
Burns & Wilcox San Antonio, TX
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The Residential Property Insurance market is shifting, driven by a surge in natural disasters and escalating property values. In 2024 alone, insured losses from severe weather events reached a record $8.5 billion, surpassing the previous high of $6 billion set in 2016. Last summer, events such as the Jasper wildfires, Calgary hailstorm, and widespread flooding in major cities, led to approximately 228,000 insurance claims—a 406% increase compared to the 20-year average. This rise in claims has caused insurers to tighten underwriting standards, leading to higher deductibles, stricter policy exclusions, and increased surcharges—particularly for properties in CAT-prone regions.
At the same time, inflation and rising home values are making insurance more expensive. Re/Max Canada’s 2025 housing outlook projected a 6% annual increase in average home prices this year, or 7% in the single-family detached market, pushing the average price above $900,000, making homeownership unaffordable for many families. This has also driven demand in the rental market, increasing the value of rental properties while adding complexity to insurance placements. Additionally, the rising cost of building materials continues to drive up replacement values, with replacement cost inflation now at or above 5%.
As a result, more homeowners are turning to specialty insurance to secure adequate coverage. Homes with prior claims, unique structures, high-value assets, or nontraditional uses—such as short-term rentals, multi-use properties, and home-based businesses—often do not fit within the guidelines of standard insurance carriers. Reentering the standard market is extremely difficult once a policy is denied or nonrenewed. The specialty market provides customized, flexible solutions for hard-to-place and high-risk properties.
In recent years, while some areas have seen rate stabilization or softening, regions prone to severe weather are experiencing gradual rate increases, particularly following the significant hailstorms and flooding in 2024.
Contributors:
Michelle Allemang Manager, British Columbia National Product Leader Personal Insurance Burns & Wilcox Vancouver, BC
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Deanne Taylor Manager, St. John’s Atlantic Division Burns & Wilcox St. Johns, NL
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Contributors:
Patricia Sheridan Associate Managing Director
Burns
& Wilcox
Toronto, ON
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Steven Hrab Director, Construction
Burns & Wilcox
Toronto, ON
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As Q2 2025 progresses, Canada’s Commercial insurance market remains highly competitive, with rates continuing to drop. While current pricing is unsustainable, early signs indicate a potential hardening within 12 to 18 months. In the meantime, renewal retention is holding steady, supported by strategic rate and coverage adjustments.
Burns & Wilcox maintains strong broker relationships and a clear focus on delivering fast, specialized solutions. We continue to see high demand for General Liability risks, particularly in Contractors, U.S. product exposures, and Hospitality. Our capabilities also extend to vacant properties, mixed occupancies, small low-hazard contractors, welding contractors, and hard-toplace Property and Liability risks.
To better support brokers, we have streamlined internal processes for faster quoting—often the same or the next day—and are preparing to launch a new program later this quarter to meet emerging market needs.
The Construction Insurance market remains soft, with ongoing pressure on rates and capacity. A potential wildcard is the threat of new tariffs, which could impact material costs—similar to the increases seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are closely monitoring this development and its implications for insurance needs.
Despite challenges, solutions are available. Our competitive product offerings and exceptional service position us as the go-to partner for Construction risks of all sizes. We are also working on new enhancements to our Builder’s Risk program, which will offer tremendous value to our brokers and their clients.
Contributor:
Danion Beckford Senior Underwriter
Professional Liability
Burns & Wilcox
Toronto, ON
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The Professional Insurance market continues to adapt to the increasing challenges of the first quarter of 2025. Cyber threats remain a pressing concern, yet many insureds still lack the understanding of the overall need for this product line in their insurance portfolio. This gap underscores the importance of offering flexible Cyber Insurance options whether standalone or as an add-on to safeguard against the financial and operational fallout of cyber breaches.
Additionally, the demand for tailored coverage in the Architects & Engineers (A&E) and Miscellaneous Errors & Omissions (E&O) sectors is growing. To meet these needs, Burns & Wilcox partnered with new markets this year, enhancing our ability to deliver innovative and competitive solutions that address these professional industries’ unique exposures. Our offering is up and running with our in-house capabilities, and we have received positive feedback on both the coverage and pricing.
So far this year, we have seen an uptick in health and wellness submissions, so we continue to work closely with our existing markets to provide exceptional coverage for our prospects. In addition, we have developed new market relationships to offer competitive pricing within the current marketplace.
At Burns & Wilcox, we remain focused on empowering brokers to educate their clients and navigate complex risk exposures. By combining our market expertise with a commitment to exceptional service, we aim to provide the resources you need to build trust and deliver tailored solutions.
The Canadian Environmental market remains soft, with some capacity hardening in certain areas. There continues to be observations of clients shutting down, declaring bankruptcy, or being acquired by larger operators (particularly in the contracting and waste sectors), perhaps as symptoms of the state of the greater market. New entrants and less technical Environmental Insurance purveyors are expected to continue sacrificing rates sometimes unsustainable in exchange for market share.
In such disruptive though certainly cyclical conditions, strategic Canadian brokers are likely best advised to continue focusing on reliable underwriting partners who emphasize underwriting integrity (as a measure of equal importance to coverage, pricing, service, etc.). This holistic and strategic partnering will likely produce higher retention percentages for renewal business. Further, there remains a space between rate wars and sound technical excellence where mindful underwriters will achieve some new business success, irrespective of market conditions.
In the aggregate and being realistic, adverse market conditions are expected to continue to challenge Environmental Liability Insurance brokers and underwriters through the second quarter of 2025.
Contributor:
Karim Jaroudi Manager Environmental Burns & Wilcox Toronto, ON
The Transportation sector is gradually stabilizing, though some regions report tighter capacity than anticipated. Cross-border transport challenges persist, with regulatory updates potentially impacting operational costs. Insurers are closely monitoring claim trends, especially in high-theft areas, which could influence rate adjustments in the latter half of the year.
Insurers are placing an even stronger emphasis on detailed underwriting data, requiring more precise risk assessments. Businesses leveraging AI-driven fleet monitoring and predictive analytics for safety improvements may gain preferential treatment from carriers.
partnerships and evolving market conditions have enhanced our coverage offerings , providing more flexible solutions for mid-sized trucking operations.
Expanding partnerships and evolving market conditions have enhanced our coverage offerings, providing more flexible solutions for mid-sized trucking operations. Our Loadsure integration continues to gain traction as demand for on-demand coverage grows.
Our team remains focused on delivering proactive risk management insights and customized coverage solutions, ensuring clients stay ahead in an evolving market landscape.
Contributor:
Fernando Batitsta Manager Transportation Burns & Wilcox Toronto, ON
Overall, the London market is navigating successfully a complex landscape marked by geopolitical uncertainties, financial challenges, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and evolving market dynamics. Lloyd’s 2024 results are now confirmed showing strong profits with a CoR of 87%.
Our update this quarter is a tale of two halves, Property down and Excess Casualty up.
Market conditions softened quicker than anticipated in Q1, predominantly reacting to domestic and alternative markets widening terms and offering rate relief to capture a greater market share.
Currently, pricing adequacy is at a long-term high resulting in greater capacity availability; however, many London markets remain cautious with risk appetite and the reduction in rate. Weather events in recent years, political challenges, and the recent California wildfires are reminders of the perils that have significantly impacted profitability.
As a result, markets are looking at technology solutions to analyze further and protect all aspects of their portfolios. There is a continued focus on technology throughout the Lloyd’s market to increase the ease of transacting business with London and on how best to navigate and manage the softening market trend with a greater analytical focus. Digital binding solutions, exposure analytics, and event response are all high on the agenda. As the market transitions, London needs to ensure sustainable and ongoing profitability, which is only possible with ongoing investment.
Lloyd’s ability to be nimble in times of uncertainty should be a key focus within the business. The array of products available, as well as the adaptability of these products, will lead to greater competitive advantage during the softening cycle.
Contributor:
Kerry Hall
Director,
Commercial H.W. Kaufman Group London London, UK
As rates continue to increase in the U.S. and domestic markets cut back capacity, particularly in more challenging sectors such as Real Estate and Transportation, more clients are accessing the London and Bermuda markets. As a result, the international market is becoming increasingly crucial for Excess Liability.
The Excess market continues to be challenged by the adverse development of their historical books, nuclear verdicts, and social inflation. London and Bermuda rate increases remain consistent at mid to high single digits, with poor-performing risks seeing much higher increases with potential cutting back in capacity.
The focus of the London market will be filling in gaps in tough complex placements and providing creative loss-sensitive swing and Alternative Risk Transfer solutions.
We expect to see small lines of circa $5M of strategically placed capacity deployed lower down towers with ventilated additional capacity higher up placements. The focus of the London market will be filling in gaps in tough complex placements and providing creative loss-sensitive swing and Alternative Risk Transfer solutions, particularly in the Transportation space. These provide longer-term stable solutions to manage increasing deductible and self-insured retention levels.
While rates have increased, very few markets have been exiting, providing stability to clients. That said, a number of markets such as Scor, Starr, and Everest have repatriated underwriting authority back to the U.S. New entrants, mainly MGAs, have added to the increased presence. In Bermuda, there are now 21 markets writing Excess Casualty business, with more predicted to follow in late 2025. Like London, the new capacity has focused on filling in tower gaps.
Clients globally continue to benefit from the stability and consistency of the London and Bermuda markets.
Contributor:
Declan Durkan
Managing Director, Non-Marine
H.W. Kaufman Group London London, UK
Contributor:
Paul G. Smith
Corporate Senior Vice President
H.W. Kaufman Group New York, NY
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The E&S market continues to offer flexibility that comes with freedom of rate and form. Because of this, brokers and agents may want to consider E&S policies for clients who have been previously covered in the traditional market. This option may provide coverage that is not available elsewhere, more favorable rates, or tailored terms that best cover the underlying exposure.
The E&S market can also offer customizable solutions, such as wind and wildfire deductible buybacks, Earthquake coverage, Personal Article Floaters, and more. Burns & Wilcox works with its retail partners to understand their needs while providing the most creative options that admitted markets generally cannot offer.
Insureds can help themselves by addressing the home hardening trends through active investment in risk mitigation strategies. Hard Commercial markets in areas such as A&B, Auto, Habitational, and Liquor Liability will continue while other markets like D&O have softened.
Brokers and agents can best help clients secure the coverage they need through reliance on the expertise of Burns & Wilcox, which provides creative solutions in the E&S marketplace. This is best accomplished when carrier and underwriters expectations, such as those listed below, are known in advance.
Provide full details on risk mitigation strategies in use, such as leak detection systems.
Submit complete submissions with details that answer the question, “Why is this risk coming into the E&S space?”
Recognize the impact of technology used by carriers and other third parties. This includes access to satellite imagery, which can identify poorly maintained property, crime scoring, and more.
As always, Burns & Wilcox can help brokers and agents find solutions for hard-to-place risks given our experience, growing line of products, investments in big data and industry connections. We are leaning into advanced decision-making tools to help manage evolving risks in a significant way. Finally, Burns & Wilcox helps identify policy options, confirming coverages, exclusions, sublimits, and other important nuances that are often overlooked.
Disclaimer: The above information has been prepared solely for the purpose of sharing general information regarding insurance and business practice management issues. These are just our opinions and are not intended to constitute legal advice or a determination on issues of coverage.