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Bitfinex Alpha #171 | BTC Consolidates Ahead of Potential Q4 Strength, as Bond Markets Contort

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Figure 4. Aggregated Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: Coinglass)

Taken together, both BTC and ETH ETF flows reflect a contraction in TradFi buying power, aligning with the broader market pullback of recent weeks. This slowdown highlights the sensitivity of institutional demand to both price and macroeconomic conditions, and reinforces the role of ETF flows as a decisive determinant of whether digital assets can regain upward momentum or remain range-bound in the near term. While both BTC and ETH appreciated alongside surging ETF inflows, the structure of TradFi demand has diverged meaningfully between the two assets. This can be seen by comparing cumulative ETF flows with bi-weekly changes in CME open interest for BTC and ETH futures.

Figure 5. ETF Market: Bitcoin CME Open Interest & US ETF Position Change Source: Glassnode)