ECONOMIC FOCUS CHAMBER NEWS
British Economic Survey The British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey for the 3rd Quarter 2013 received more than 7,400 business responses. The respondents cover the entire United Kingdom, and were surveyed by postal and online questionnaires over the period 26 August to 16 September 2013.
In the manufacturing sector 1,908 firms, employing approximately 200,000 people, responded. 1,328 (70%) of manufacturing respondents were exporters. In the service sector 5,548 businesses with approximately 1,000,000 employees responded. Of the service sector participants, 2,552 (46%) were exporters. While the majority of respondents employ fewer than 500 people, the sample included many large businesses.
3rd QUARTER
2013
BRITISH CHA MBE
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY RS OF COM
MERCE
Total responses are weighted according to the actual distribution of companies by size within each region and nation, and each region and nation is similarly weighted within the national aggregates to ensure that the sample provides a truly representative picture of UK commerce and industry. The survey is the largest and most representative of its kind in the UK.
summary The Q3 2013 results show further improvement, with manufacturing recording particularly strong progress. For both manufacturing and services, most key balances are stronger than in Q2, and all the critical balances are now stronger than their long-term historical averages. In both sectors, many key balances are higher now than their pre-recession levels in 2007. Several key manufacturing balances and percentages are at all-time highs for our survey: domestic sales, employment and employment expectations, cashflow, turnover confidence and full capacity. But there are some disquieting features. The manufacturing plant &
machinery investment balance, though still positive, fell, and is lower than in 2007, even though the share of firms at full capacity is at a record high. Several key service balances are lower than in 2007: employment expectations, cashflow, investment, and profitability confidence. Both service export balances fell slightly, but they remain at historically high levels. In both sectors, inflation is the biggest area of concern for businesses, and intentions to raise prices strengthened. Overall, the Q3 results show a strengthening recovery, but many risks persist.