debate |DI PLO M AT I CA
The Reformation and war
The Reformation period was as bloody as anything yet seen in the Arab world — 25 to 40 percent of the population of northern Germany was killed by war, internal violence or disease, which flourishes in times of violence. The massacre at Mérindol brings to mind the horrors of Syria. Francis I of France ordered the attack to punish the Waldensians, a Protestant sect, in the Northern Italian Alps. Virtually the entire population of Mérindol and the inhabitants of about 25 nearby villages were slaughtered. So how did the Reformation become known for introducing tolerance? Europeans simply burned themselves out after a century-plus of religious war. Catholic armies marched up and down Europe killing Protestants; Protestant armies marched up and down Europe killing Catholics and, for that matter, other Protestants. diplomat and international canada
After 130 years of horror, even the slow learners of Europe began to understand that no side had the power to defeat or kill all the others — though for each side this would have been the preferred course of action — so they had better figure out how to, at least, tolerate one another. This resulted in the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia, which introduced some limited ideas of religious tolerance. The treaty involved great accomplishments by many people in advancing in-
just attitudinal. Many in the West seem to believe that if only Arabs acted sensibly, like us, and were full of tolerance, like us, and had a nice intellectual Reformation, like us, then all their silly conflicts would disappear in rousing choruses of Kumbaya and John Lennon’s Imagine. This attitude adjustment creates a more realistic view of the Arab Spring and the very long sortingout period that will follow. Exhortations for tolerance, freedom and democracy from the rest of the world are only occasionally useful. They help at the margin and make it clear which side we are on — something that will be remembered if the Arab Spring produces a semblance of democracy and greater freedom. Still, people in the region will have to learn the lesson themselves, as did people in Europe, though much blood is likely to flow before that happens. Is the Arab Spring akin to 1848?
Lucas cranach
The “what ifs” are fraught with hazard. Had the Egyptian secularists won, they would have inherited a horrid economy. They might have fared better economically than Morsi, but no one would have known of his incompetence, and the secularists would have suffered mightily in public opinion for the lousy situation, powering the Muslim Brotherhood and further divisions. For Morsi to have pitched a broad tent against the obvious inclinations of the Brotherhood, he needed Nelson Mandela status, but Mandelas are rare and Mandela built his inspirational power over decades — no such Mandela existed, or probably could exist, in Egypt. The West did intervene early in Libya, yet Libya is descending into chaos and extremists are gaining strength, intimidating the opposition and beginning to take control of territory. Such “better worlds” are unknowable and are pure speculation; it might well be that the horrors and dangers would simply have assumed other forms. This is because many countries in the Arab world have yet to experience the deep fatigue that resulted from Reformation-era conflicts. Thus, we will argue that the key policy lesson from this is that the West can do little to resolve the deep divisions in the Arab world; the flames of conflict will have to burn themselves out. However, taking this lesson, we will argue that focusing on economic issues can mitigate divisions and pave the way for stable democracy.
Martin Luther
novative ways of thinking by those who made the way for a new kind of peace. And, to be fair, such ideas began to arise fairly early in response to the bloodshed. Although Pope Paul III gave Imperial honours to the local grandee who raised the troops responsible for the Mérindol massacre; many in Europe were revolted. One other factor must be noted, albeit briefly. As Luther was hammering his nails in northern Europe, in southern Europe, the Renaissance, which would change the perception of the human condition, had begun — and 130 years later, Renaissance thought fed into the ideas of tolerance in the Treaty of Westphalia. Even here, similarities are found: Much new Arab thought is bubbling beneath the surface, all too often suppressed by violence, just as the powers-that-were attempted to suppress early Renaissance thought. But, still, despite noble thought background to the Treaty of Westphalia, it was mainly blood exhaustion that led to the Peace. Lessons from Western history
What are the lessons from this? The first is
We also need to be prepared for the up, downs and disappointments. Marx thought the revolutions of 1848 would bring Communist Utopia, but they were quickly defeated. Many compare 1848, “the Spring of Nations,” with the Arab Spring; but the Arab Spring, like the Reformation, contains a much broader, deeper and more existential range of issues. The immediate fires will not be as quickly extinguished as they were in 1848. But there is one hopeful lesson: The 1848 revolutions were crushed, but, within decades, a period of liberalization followed. This is a generational problem and opportunity. Young Arabs, brought up in an era of global communication, may be able to make their mark in 20 or so years just as the children of 1848 were. A key for tolerance: Free markets
Arabs also have one great opportunity not available in the Reformation — the possibility of a reformed economy, and this is an area in which the West might be able to make a difference. This was not an option for the pre-industrial Reformation, ending more than 100 years before Adam Smith’s breakthrough understanding of the power of free markets. Nations where democracy and freedom are imposed, but which lack institutions of tolerance, trust and self-expression, typically end up worse off. Democracy and freedom only flourish where these institutions exist. Free markets have generated the highest levels of prosperity in human history, and thus through prosperity promote the values institutions required for 29