Mayfair in Minutes 2023

AL rt 23 TI o 20 EN ep r ID T ES E R RK A

M

MAYFAIR IN MINUTES There will be considerably fewer opportunities to buy Mayfair property in THE future

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pg 2. Mayfair’s New Roaring Twenties Pg 3. Lifetime Opportunities Pg 4. Mayfair Sales and Lettings Data Pg 6. Step Changes in Mayfair Pg 7. Vision of a Future Mayfair Pg 8. Mayfair - The Ultimate Agglomeration

THE BRYANSTON UNINTERRUPTED SOUTHERLY VIEWS OVER 350 ACRES OF HYDE PARK

Buyers for Prime Central London property are looking at Mayfair as a “once in a lifetime” opportunity to buy into everything the area has to offer.

Peter Wetherell, Founder and Executive Chairman of Wetherell has specialised in Mayfair for over 40 years and says that the last decade has been the most exciting.

So it is not surprising that there has been such a demand for the new prime residential developments with all facilities “on tap”.

Mayfair now boasts re-imagined flagship hotels, revived luxury retail, modern HQ offices, an abundance of fine dining, new private members clubs and a vastly improved sense of space with massive public realm improvements.

Buyers have leapt at that “once in a lifetime” opportunity, with the Mayfair area undergoing a residential development boom not seen in nearly 100 years – a dozen new developments in and around Mayfair providing nearly 500 new homes which represents an uplift of post code addresses by approximately 10% and a possible 25% increase in residents.

The reason for Mayfair’s resurgence as London’s No.1 area for residential property is quite simple – it has been due to the availability of these new developments.

MAYFAIR’S new ROARING twenties ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITies selling fast 20 GROSVENOR SQUARE

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ALMACANTAR 54 UNITS FORMER OFFICES

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CLARGES MAYFAIR

BRITISH LAND 34 UNITS FORMER OFFICES

bringing residential life back to mayfair

MAYFAIR REGAINS THE CROWN Mayfair is now offering the level of high finish and facilities only previously offered by the new millennium residential developments in Knightsbridge (One Hyde Park, The Bulgari, and 199 Knightsbridge).

BRANDED Mayfair’s NEW branded residences like “Four Seasons” at 20 Grosvenor Square, “The Mandarin Oriental” in Hanover Square, “The Dorchester Collection” in Stanhope Gate and other “7 star developments” have offered to the market a world ranking standard of finish and facilities not even seen before in London flagship hotels; which have themselves embarked on massive reconstruction projects to compete on an international scale with hotel amenities.

Last year the sales of Mayfair property over £5,000,000 doubled in turnover of units with £650,000,000 worth of sales and two thirds being in the new developments.

NO.1 GROSVENOR SQUARE - H2/2022 SAW DEVELOPER LODHA CLOSING IN ON SELL-OUT STATUS AT ITS FLAGSHIP LONDON SCHEME, CONFIRMING £500MN WORTH OF APARTMENTS. A HANDFUL OF TWO AND THREE BEDROOMS REMAIN, PRICED BETWEEN £8.65MN AND £20.5MN.

LAND REGISTRY At the time of writing, these figures are less than the actual numbers, due to the delay in up-to-date data coming out of the Land Registry for recent sales.

Also some of the developments are still nearing completion, so too it is early to register the sales. The true figure could be closer to £1Bn.

THE END OF “ONCE IN A LIFETIME” OPPORTUNITIES

The recurring theme for sales particulars is “First time in the market for 33 years”, “First time in the market in 25 years” and similar generational lengths.

First Time In

25

Although this is not a new phenomenon YEARS due to the “Three Ds” of death, debt and divorce; the dynamic has changed due to the high transactional costs of stamp duty (SDLT). Buyers are now looking for a generational purchase and looking forward to many decades in their homes.

F 23 OR Y SA EA L R E S 25 SO Y LD EA R S

With a diminishing stock of new development apartments, the focus has once again turned back to the domestic Mayfair resale market.

F 30 OR Y SA EA L R E S

F 70 OR Y SA EA L R E S

THE MARKET HAS NOW CHANGED TO “ONCE IN A GENERATION”

Last years “Mayfair in Minutes” referred to the market as “The Roaring 20s” and likened it with the massive redevelopments in Mayfair over 100 years ago with grand mansions being demolished and replaced by Mansion Apartment blocks and new hotels offering a new commercial Mayfair with spacious entertaining facilities to replace private palaces with ballrooms.

25 SO Y LD EA R S

Local planning restrictions in the Westminster City Council’s Development Plan for the next 20 years prohibits the size of units in a new development to a maximum of 200 sq.m. / 2,150 sq.ft.

Plus there is a further prohibition for amalgamation of units – so it is very much a market of “buy now whilst stocks last”.

The market of – “build it and the buyers will come” because of the availability of stock has now changed to “You better hail this taxi because there isn’t another one coming around the corner!”

F 25 OR Y SA EA L R E S

Well informed buyers are aware that this development boom is finite.

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

L t r 20 TIA o 20 EN ep r ID T ES E R RK A M

L t r 22 TIA o 20 EN ep r ID T ES E R RK A M

MAYFAIR IN MINUTES

the doors of perception

MAYFAIR

IN MINUTES

THE RETURN OF THE ROARING TWENTIES MAYFAIR’S RESIDENTIAL SALES MARKET 2021 VERSUS THE REST OF CENTRAL LONDON

Affordability Buy now whilE stocks last CLARGES MAYFAIR

Wetherell Research for the residential Mayfair market for 2019 shows a continued reduction in the volume of sales, down nearly 10% on 2018 and just over half the volume of sales of 2013.

The dome of the 4 storey grand hallway depicts aspects of Mayfair: Cars • Women’s Fashion • Architecture • Members’ Clubs and Leisure • Green Park • Craftsmanship • Men’s Fashion • Food • Tableware

Average £ per square foot (£ psf) values for apartment sales (on leases of 30 years plus) are now back to values comparable to the end of 2013 / 2014.

£2,000 per sq.ft.

THE RISE AND RISE OF THE INVISIBLE MAYFAIR MARKET

In 2017 nearly three quarters of sales (74%) were over £2,000 psf (compared to 25% for rest of PCL). There was a drop to 59% in 2018 (20% rest of PCL) with 2019 seeing a further reduction to 51% (18% rest of PCL).

2 0 1 9 UPDAT E

2020 Mayfair sales volumes could increase by 50% as buyers see historical values as a buying opportunity. As supply diminishes and demand increases vendors of new potential sales will not be tempted onto the market at these historical prices.

“2018 saw a continued fall in the volume of transactions in the second hand residential sales market.

However, the new developments springing up in the Mayfair area have attracted the attention of purchasers seeking the added services and amenities that these luxury apartments have to offer.”

NEW RESEARCH REVEALS MAYFAIR IS LONDON’S TOP ADDRESS FOR GYMS; 60% ARE GYM USERS & 50% OF RESIDENTS will be aged between 25 & 44 by 2021

I often tell clients that the property never changes, it is just the perception to the market that alters the property’s value. Looking at this perception in the context of Mayfair – then there has never been a better time to buy.

SALES PREDICTION

MAYFAIR IN MINUTES

HEALTH IS WEALTH report

DEMOGRAPHY DEFINES DESTINY IN MAYFAIR Today’s global citizens have thrown off traditional expectations of lifestyles and life-stages.

Mayfair is evolving to match these new ways of living. This urban oasis is increasingly appealing to a younger crowd, with Generation Z (those currently under the age of 25) set to comprise 30% of its population by 2028. All residents are demanding more from life and more from Mayfair.

We explore how Mayfair rises to the challenge.

Aldous Huxley (1894 – 1963)

Peter Wetherell FRICS MARLA FNEA Founder and Chairman, Wetherell

MAYFAIR

WHO LIVES IN MAYFAIR?

W E T H E R E L L M AY FA I R M A R K E T R E P O RT S U M M E R 2 0 1 9

“There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.”

“Looking back on 2019 and looking forward to the next decade with 2020 vision.”

Peter Wetherell FRICS MARLA FNEA Founder and Chief Executive, Wetherell

By Peter Wetherell FRICS MARLA FNEA

Highlights of the 2018 Mayfair Residential Market Review

Founder and Chief Executive, Wetherell

with The Serpentine Swimming Club

Vendors will harden up on low offers In 2017 three quarters of Mayfair sales needed a price reduction before a sale compared to only half in 2019.

• Greater selection of stock for sale • Vendors becoming reluctant landlords • Needs driven buyers • Super Lets – Fast decisions on short term obligations • Drop in number of price reductions before sale • Transaction volume down by 15% • Two beds represent 25% of market • Off market transactions on new developments

Synonymous with boating and ducks the Serpentine lake is situated in the heart of Hyde Park. However, before most of London is awake hardy members of The Serpentine Swimming Club brave the waters between 5-9.30am. Their biggest event of the year is the famous ‘Peter Pan’ race held on Christmas Day. Even with waters regularly verging on freezing in the winter, wet suits are frowned upon by the regulars.

The winter water is densest at 4 degrees C when the water expands before freezing – when the water freezes the swimmers use hammers to break the ice.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS New landmark developments with all the recreational facilities have created new super prime values up to double established market values. The demand is now focused on these developments as new planning policies restrict similar offerings in the future. Buy now while stocks last.

Source of enquiries

27%

Wetherell Website

22%

mayfair IN MINUTES

Walk-in

We live in a modern ‘Heterogeneous’ Mayfair – a brand

21%

location which is diverse in character and content The 1790 Census of householders on the Grosvenor Mayfair Estate detailed 129 persons of Title, 35 Members of Parliament and 112 Professionals.

They represented only 18% of the population whilst ‘Trade’ represented nearly 60% (890 tradesman) supplying the Aristocracy and Professionals with Food & Drink, Dress & Fashion, Building, Transport and others.

SUMMER 2020 MARKET UPDATE

350 ACRES OF HYDE PARK The Bryanston, Hyde Park – a new development by Almacantar comprising 54 luxury apartments with the finest views over Hyde Park, Mayfair and The City.

Available through Wetherell.

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

With the annual Wetherell “Mayfair in Minutes” report, we track the previous year’s data and then distribute our knowledge as to our views on the market moving forward.

However, Mr Butler finished his famous phrase by adding “until he knows absolutely everything about nothing" which certainly does not seem apt or fair!

By Peter Wetherell, Founder and Executive Chairman

I am a great believer in digesting the facts of the past, being nourished by the present day “coal face” experience and taking the opportunity on commenting on my thoughts for the future.

It was the American philosopher, Nicholas Butler who said "An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less” which I suppose can relate to myself!

22% Portals

8% Other

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

THE BENEFITS OF LONGEVITY One of the privileges of 40 years specialising in the Mayfair residential market is that I am now advising the families of the buyers that I have had the honour of working with over the last four decades.

Referral/Old Clients

A more recent survey by Experian (the credit reporting company) of today’s modern Mayfair showed that those of ‘Affluent Wealth’ now represents 70% of the Mayfair population compared to 7% in ‘normal’ areas of London.

In the late 19th Century it was said that the world was ruled from the homes of Mayfair – and now today – the people who rule the world (both politically or financially) want to buy a home in Mayfair.

bringing residential life back to mayfair

MAYFAIR sales by price band - 2022

12%

UNDER £1m

20.7%

£1m - £2m

33.7%

£2m - £5m

19.6%

£5m - £10m

14%

£10m +

14% 3500 3000

MAYFAIR SALES Average £ per square foot - 2022

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

12%

20.7%

19.6%

2500 2000

33.7%

1500 1000 500 0

One Bedroom Flat

Two Bedroom Flat Three Bedroom Flat Four Bedroom Flat

House

UNDER £1m

£1m - £2m

£2m - £5m

£5m - £10m

OVER £10m

Mayfair

Rest of Prime Central London

SOURCE: LonRes data

MAYFAIR SALES Average £ per square foot - 2022 ONE BEDROOM FLAT

TWO BEDROOM FLAT

THREE BEDROOM FLAT

FOUR+ BEDROOM FLAT

HOUSE

£1,912

£2,071

£2,367

£3,478

£2,692

£1,429 REST OF PCL

£1,531 REST OF PCL

£1,766 REST OF PCL

£1,893 REST OF PCL

£2,001 REST OF PCL

MAYFAIR SALES

+6%

CHANGE IN ACHIEVED PRICES LAST 5 YEARS

-5% REST OF PCL

7%

OF SALES WERE HOUSES

27% REST OF PCL

64%

ACHIEVING £2,000 PER SQ FT OR HIGHER

41%

26% REST OF PCL

Source: LonRes/ Wetherell

bringing residential life back to mayfair

PROPERTIES REDUCED IN PRICE BEFORE SALE

40% REST OF PCL

lettings MAYFAIR Lettings - 2022

Mayfair outperforms rest of Prime Central London

£72

(Based on apartment sales excluding new developments. Leases 30 years+)

AVERAGE £ PER SQUARE FOOT £59 REST OF PCL

%

Average £ per Sq ft

125

2500

100

2000

75

1500

50

1000

25

500

98%

OF ASKING PRICE ACHIEVED

99% REST OF PCL

14%

INCREASE IN ACHIEVED RENTAL VALUES FLATS LAST 5 YEARS

24% REST OF PCL

33%

INCREASE IN ACHIEVED RENTAL VALUES FLATS LAST 10 YEARS

19% REST OF PCL

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

0

16% REST OF PCL

MAYFAIR Lettings Average £ achieved per week - 2022

Mayfair value growth since 2007 (%) Rest of Prime Central London value growth since 2007 (%) Mayfair (Average £ per Sq ft)

£798

Rest of PCL (Average £ per Sq ft)

ONE BEDROOM FLAT £633 REST OF PCL

© Wetherell Research using LonRes data (excludes leases of less than 30 years).

Mayfair defined as W1J, W1K and W1S. Rest of Prime Central London: SW1A, SW3, SW7, SW10, SW1W, SW1X, W8. CHART SHOWS GROWTH SINCE 2007 FOR EACH YEAR E.G. 2022 BAR REPRESENTS GROWTH FROM 2007 TO 2022.

£1,481

TWO BEDROOM FLAT £1,037 REST OF PCL

£3,065

ANNUAL NUMBER OF MAYFAIR RESIDENTIAL SALES - JANUARY TO december

THREE BEDROOM FLAT £1,875 REST OF PCL

£6,483

FOUR+ BEDROOM FLAT £3,270 REST OF PCL

(Excluding new developments)

£3,503

156

150

135

126

120

114

90 60

PROPERTIES REDUCED IN PRICE BEFORE LET AGREED

22%

£2,538 REST OF PCL

105 86

80

93

89 69

64

HOUSE

77

71

71

68

properties let by number of bedrooms

68

5% 7%

STUDIO 1 BED

30

19% 32%

2 BED 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Years 2007 to 2022.

Source: LonRes W1K / W1J / W1S postcode areas.

3 BED 4+ BED Source: LonRes - Let in 2022

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

37%

STEP CHANGEs in mayfair Reflections By Peter Wetherell

Mayfair is currently in a step change of improvements in both value and offerings, that in the passage of time will be seen as the next radical paradigm shift – it is what I term “The Golden Decade”. – a step change in both offerings and perceptions of what Mayfair has to offer.

In my lifetime I will see the third office building to be erected on the southern side of Berkeley Square and already pre-let in its entirety to the Blackstone group before the present “Saatchi & Saatchi” building has even been demolished.

I have witnessed the complete modern transformation of Hanover Square (Mayfair’s I st development from early 1700’s) with the opening of Bond Street station, the jewel in Europe’s largest infrastructure project of Crossrail / the new Elizabeth Line.

Planning has now been passed for Grosvenor’s mixed use development of the South Molton Triangle to benefit the Elizabeth Line’s Bond Street station and bring new offices, hotel, retail and residential to this often neglected quarter off Oxford Street.

BERKELEY SQUARE: BLACKSTONE, THE US PRIVATE EQUITY GIANT HAS AGREED TO FULLY LEASE THE REDEVELOPED 10-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING, COMPRISING 226,000 SQ.FT. OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN END OF LONDON’S MOST FAMOUS GARDEN SQUARE, THE REDEVELOPED LANSDOWNE HOUSE WILL REPRESENT THE FUTURE OF OFFICES BY MEETING THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE DESIGN AND SUSTAINABILITY STANDARDS.

I have had the honour to be instructed by Grosvenor to sell their old Estate Offices in ten period buildings in Brook Street / Davies Street as they moved to modern offices in Grosvenor Street. I also inspected with them both the old US Embassy and Naval Attaché base in Grosvenor Square, seeing the later become The Four Seasons Residences at 20 Grosvenor Square with sales up to £8,000 per square foot (£p.s.f.)

In 2024 I look forward to having a martini at The Chancery hotel by Rosewood, sitting on the new terrace above the reinstated American golden eagle and looking out to the new public realm improvements to the new urban oasis of Grosvenor Square Gardens.

HANOVER SQUARE A NEW OVER-STATION 220,000 SQ.FT. COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEVELOPMENT SHOWS HOW MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS CAN CATALYSE THE DELIVERY OF EXCELLENT PLACEMAKING. LEAD TENANT IS KKR. SCHEME BY LIFSCHUTZ DAVIDSON SANDILANDS. PHOTOGRAPH BY JACK HOBHOUSE

I was privileged, pre-covid, to attend a “bottoming out” celebration party in the newly dug 5 floors below Claridge’s, which is now open as Mayfair's “hidden gem” spa with two swimming pools for its new residents including the occupants of a further three top floors which incorporates the Royal Suite with private reflective lake and Piano Pavilion.

Residentially, we are now left with the last major development, the 250,000 sq.ft.

“1 1 Mayfair” now rising out of the ground in Audley Square, having built its way up from 5 underground levels to house all the facilities of the apartment building.

Designed by Robert Stern architect (RMSA) famed for Manhattan’s 15 Central Park West, the development will boast just 24 homes – a not to be repeated opportunity due to new zoning regulations.

And soon, one of Mayfair’s oldest enclaves, Shepherd Market (est 1680’s) will see the opening of a new mixed use development of the old Carrington Street Car Park with a new access to Green Park plus the future opening of Cambridge House (the old “In & Out” club) in Piccadilly as a new luxury hotel. This major redevelopment by the Reuben brothers will see the public realm improvements to the last sector of Mayfair to see restoration.

bringing residential life back to mayfair

A VISION OF A FUTURE MAYFAIR With the “jigsaw” of recent developments all nearing completion in the 2020s, Mayfair will have come to the end of its latest “Step Change”.

By “Mayfair Guru” Peter Wetherell

£800m

Existing

New Build

£600m

£400m the story of

Mayfair

£200m

from 1664 onwards

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source: LonRes/Land Registry - sales in W1J,W1K & W1S

The major step changes were “From Mud to Mansions”, “Heyday of the Aristocrats”, “From Aristocrats to Plutocrats”, “Aristocracy in Decline”, “From Ballrooms to Boardrooms”, “From Offices to Homes Again”, and “From Bust to Boom”.

After 350 years of step change, I had asked some of the main players in Mayfair, from the head of Grosvenor to Simon Reuben, Richard Caring, Sir John Ritblat and John Caudwell, to predict life in 2030? Their predictions are all being delivered and as Mahatma Gandhi (1869-1948) remarked; “The future depends on what you do today.”

SALES OF PROPERTY OVER £5MN HAVE BEEN DOMINATED OVER THE LAST 6 YEARS BY NEW MODERN DEVELOPMENTS AT SALE PRICES OVER DOUBLE THE VALUE OF THE DOMESTIC MARKET.

other mayfair gurus

Photographed by Jonathan Becker

In 2014 I published a book “The Story of Mayfair (From 1664 Onwards) in which I detailed the 7 major step changes to date and our prediction to the future up until 2030.

value of mayfair sales £5m+

£1,000m

Simon Reuben

Sir John Ritblat

Richard Caring

THE MAYFAIR GURU PREDICTS

Q So, what DOES the “Mayfair Guru” see for the future?

A New Lane

A New Square

100 & 60 Year Sell by Dates

15 Minute City

The south bound carriage way of Park Lane becomes once again Mayfair’s park lane, a pedestrian thoroughfare with the north bound to Marble Arch re-instated as two way traffic and the reintroduction of Brook Gate and Stanhope Gate as ceremonial entrances into Mayfair.

With The Grosvenor House hotel celebrating its centenary and The Hilton on Park Lane over 60 years old, developers look at reimagining the pedestrian Park Lane with the redevelopment of these two Mayfair landmarks.

After being moved from the gardens of Buckingham Palace, in 1850 “Marble Arch” will once again sit in its own grounds. The gyratory road system will be altered to create a new “piazza”, the size of Leicester Square, and the building of memorial gates into Hyde Park for our late Queen Elizabeth II. Oxford Street will become, after massive redevelopment and pedestrianisation, the ultimate 15-minute linear city, with St Giles Square and Marble Arch Square being the two bookends of the new Avenue.

no-one knows mayfair better than wetherell

John Caudwell

2022

Mayfair – The Ultimate Sustainable City

Placemaking in Mayfair

When you look at the plethora of Grade I and Grade II listed buildings in Mayfair – surely residential is the ultimate sustainable product? However, the penalties of obsolescence need to be weighed up in balance with the costs of demolition and new infrastructure with its impacts on climate change.

The large landlords of Mayfair have the ability to create placemaking as part of their policy brief.

The early 1900s saw a massive push in London to clean up pollution and slum buildings. Today the concept of the future and sustainability are closely linked but a sustainable city is one that has a well-diversified offering with density, walkability, active retail and commercial frontages.

The infrastructure of Mayfair and density of mixed use will reduce travelling, making resource consumption more efficient.

Prohibitions on development height restricts an increase in the density.

New mixed use developments with a high content of residential will ultimately be sustainable and the impact on carbon footprint in new developments taken in context with future sustainability.

The Mayfair Neighbourhood Forum sets out a vision for the future and Westminster City Council controls the brief.

In the 1800s most of the population serviced the aristocracy and plutocracy in their grand mansions. Nowadays it is the majority who are wealthy and for those who live, work or visit they have access to “the lungs of London” – the grand royal parks that surround the area.

Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity was “Doing the same things over and over but expecting different results”.

Mayfair – The Ultimate Agglomeration In business, agglomeration is when like-minded businesses cluster close to each other. A sense of place attracts and maintains a thriving and civically engaged workforce. For Mayfair you can add residential and the hospitality industry and of course wealth into that agglomeration mix.

Mayfair is the hub of hedge funds, Michelin star restaurants, world class hotels, and walking distance to 80% of the top retail brands in the world. Recent new residential developments have attracted a younger and wealthier entrepreneurial mix.

Well, I have been doing the same for decades and have seen extraordinary changes in Mayfair throughout my career and hope to see more leaps forward in the future. I have been an ambassador, aficionado, and advocate for the area, have named new streets and given buzz words and phrases to the localities of Mayfair.

Insane? - well I prefer “The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success”.

Peter Wetherell FRICS Founder & Executive Chairman

THE BRYANSTON LOCATED AT THE TOP OF PARK LANE BY MARBLE ARCH. THIS 54 UNIT SCHEME HAS OUTSTANDING VIEWS OVER HYDE PARK, MAYFAIR, THE CITY AND LONDON SKYLINE

102 Mount Street, London W1K 2TH . 020 7493 6935 . mail@wetherell.co.uk wetherell.co.uk NOTE: The Wetherell 2022 market analysis uses data from the Land Registry, LonRes and local market intelligence.

40 years of Bringing Residential Life Back to Mayfair London’s No. 1 Area © February 2023 | Brochure by TwentyOneFifty Tel: 020 878 2150