Quarterly Economic Indicators - October 2023

Page 1

Quarterly Economic Indicator Report Metric

Baseline

Latest

Trend

1.4%

(2019:Q3-2019:Q4)

1.7%

(2022:Q4-2023:Q1)

MI 2023 Q2 GDP not release yet, due to BLS Comprehensive Update in progress.

1.9%

(2019:Q3-2019:Q4)

2.1%

(2023:Q1-2023:Q2)

Fourth consecutive quarter over quarter growth of over 2 percent.

2.13M

(Feb. 2020)

2.15M

(Aug. 2023)

Second consecutive monthly decrease in August 2023. 24,000 fewer jobs in Region than same month in 2019.

Avg. Weekly Wage, Detroit MSA

$1,245

$1,460

Wages up 8% Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022. (private, all establishments, all industries)

Labor Force Participation Rate, Michigan

61.6%

(Feb. 2020)

61.3%

(Aug. 2023)

Highest level since July 2020. Increasing since Q1 2023.

3.7%

4.1%

(Aug. 2023)

Monthly increases since April 2023. Highest level since January 2023.

3.8%

Rate below 4.0% since Feb. 2022.

GDP, MI GDP, US Private Sector Jobs, Detroit Region

Unemployment, Detroit MSA Unemployment, US Job Postings, Detroit Region

(Q4 2019)

(Feb. 2020)

3.8%

(Q1 2023)

(Feb. 2020)

(Sept. 2023)

160,450

126,369

(Feb. 2020)

(Sep. 2023)

80K fewer jobs posting over September 2022, a 39% decrease.

Release Date: October 2023

1


Quarterly Economic Indicator Report Metric Business Applications, MI Consumer Price Index, Detroit MSA Consumer Sentiment, US Home Price Index, Detroit MSA Manufacturing PMI® Automotive Sales, US, SAAR Airport Passengers, DTW

Baseline

Latest

Trend

27,572

39,068

Quarterly level 6% above the same quarter last year.

2.6

over-the-year percent change (Feb. 2020)

5.9

over-the-year percent change (Aug. 2023)

Ticked up in August over previous reading of 4.7% in June. Core CPI (less food and energy) remains elevated at 7.7% YOY.

101.0

68.1

(Sept. 2023)

Dipped down in September from annual peak in July 2023 of 71.6.

176.4

Steady growth throughout 2023.

(2019 Q1)

(Feb. 2020)

129.7

(2023 Q2)

(Feb. 2020)

(Jul. 2023)

50.1

49.0

(Feb. 2020)

(Sept. 2023)

Highest figure since Nov. 2022. 11 th month of contraction, but third month of positive change.

16.9M

(Feb. 2020)

15.7M

(Sept. 2023)

Impact of work stoppages yet to be seen in sales reports.

3.27M

2.85M

Aug. 2023 down 9% over Aug. 2019 levels.

(May 2019)

(Aug. 2023)

Detroit Regional Chamber’s Economic Indicators Tracking and Perspectives: https://www.detroitchamber.com/research/ Release Date: October 2023

2


Real GDP Percent change from preceding period Real GDP Growth Percent change from preceding quarter

80 65.9

60 40

34.8

20 4.2

0 -5.3

-20 -40 -60

5.2

6.2

3.3

7

2.7 -2

-5.7

2.6 0.3

2.2 1.7 2.1

8.7

5.9 7.4

0.1

-0.6

-4

2.1 1.8

-4.9

-28 -40.1

2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2

United States

Michigan

2019

2020

2021

2022

Detroit MSA

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: State quarterly data not released for 2023 Q2 due to updates at BEA

Release Date: October 2023

3


Private Sector Jobs Detroit Region

2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000

2,135,200

2,131,200

2,152,300

2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000

Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23

Private Sector Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release Date: October 2023

4


Average Weekly Wage

Private, All industries, All establishment sizes Detroit MSA $1,460

$1,500 $1,450

$1,395

$1,400 $1,350 $1,300

$1,236 $1,291

$1,250 $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release Date: October 2023

5


Labor Force Participation Rate 64.0%

62.8%

63.3%

62.0% 60.0%

61.3% 61.1%

58.0% 56.0% 54.0% 52.0%

Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23

Michigan

United States

Source: Current Population Survey (CPS), Michigan Center for Data and Analytics, DTMB

Release Date: October 2023

6


Monthly Unemployment Rate Detroit United States States Detroit MSA MSA and and United

30% 23.9%

25% 20% 15% 10% 3.7% 5% 0% 0

02 -2 n Ja

-5%

14.4%

3.8% 0 20 02 20 -r 2 a ay M M

4.1%

3.1% 2.0% 0 1 1 20 20 21 02 02 02 20 20 2 2 20 -l 2 v p n ar ay Ju Ja M Se No M

1 2 2 21 21 22 02 02 02 20 20 2 2 20 -l 2 v p n ar ay Ju Ja M Se No M

United States

2 3 3 22 22 23 02 02 02 20 20 2 2 20 -l 2 v p n ar ay Ju Ja M Se No M

3.9%

3 23 02 20 -l 2 p Ju Se

Detroit MSA

Source:Source: Bureau Bureau of LaborofStatistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Statistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Release Date: October 2023

7


Job Postings Detroit Region

260,000 237,805

240,000

Unique Postings

220,000 200,000 180,000

177,914

160,000 126,369

140,000 120,000

133,976

100,000

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release Date: October 2023

8


Business Applications Michigan

60,000 50,000

42,540

40,000 30,000

25,000

37,002

39,068

25,388

20,000 10,000 0 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q4-2021 Q1-2022 Q2-2022 Q3-2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: Not seasonally adjusted

Release Date: October 2023

9


Consumer Price Index Detroit MSA

12.0% 9.7%

10.0%

7.7%

Year over year

8.0%

6.1%

6.0% 5.9%

4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%

Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23

All items

Core (All items less food and energy) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release Date: October 2023

10


Index of Consumer Sentiment 120 101.0

100 88.3 80

68.1 71.8

60

40 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23

Source: University of Michigan

Release Date: October 2023

11


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 307.1

310.2

170.9

176.4

300

250

217.3

200

150

100 0 2 20 n Ja

130.2

0 0 02 02 2 2 ar ay M M

0 0 0 1 1 1 02 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 2 2 lvnpar ay Ju Ja M Se No M

Ju

1 02 2 l-

United States

1 1 2 2 2 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 2 vnpar ay Ja M Se No M

2 2 2 3 3 3 02 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 2 2 lvnpar ay Ju Ja M Se No M

3 02 2 lJu

Detroit MSA

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

Release Date: October 2023

12


Manufacturing PMI® Purchasing Manager's Index

70 64.7

65 60 55

50.9

50 45 40 35

49 41.5

0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 r y n a a Ja M M

1 1 0 0 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 l r v y n p a a o Ju Ja M Se N M

2 1 1 1 2 2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 l r y v p n a a o Ju Ja M Se N M

2 2 2 3 3 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 l r v y n p a a o Ju Ja M Se N M

3 3 -2 -2 l p Ju Se

Source: Institute For Supply Management

Release Date: October 2023

13


Annual U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)

20.0 18.0

18.0

16.6

15.7

16.0

Millions of Unis

14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0

8.5

4.0 2.0 0.0

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release Date: October 2023

14


Detroit Metropolitan Airport Total Passengers 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000

36.2M 2019 Total

2023

2,500,000

28.2M 2022 Total

2,000,000

23.6M 2021 Total

1,500,000 1,000,000

14.1M 2020 Total

500,000 0Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: Wayne County Airport Authority

Release Date: October 2023

15


Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.