รายงานผลงานวิจัย ปี 2547-2548

Page 66

Abstract This study has the objective for developing a mathematical model that uses ozone forecasting in the atmosphere at Ramkhamhaeng university area. The ambient air quality monitoring data from the station of Pollution Control Department since 1997 - 2002 was used for seeking relation and mathematical model. The SPSS program and multiple linear regression technique was used and the result of the model give the correlation value equal to 0.732 (F Sig. = 0.031) and auto-correlation test by use the value of Durbin Watson and the value equal to 1.961. The variables of model were hourly average of ozone concentration, nitrogen concentration, wind speed, temperature at 10:00, the maximum concentration of the ozone in previous day, hourly average of wind speed at 9:00, hourly average of temperature at 6:00, hourly average of ozone concentration at 7:00. The model was tested by using data in January - March 2003 and forecasting value of the model has tended to have same way as the observed value; however when the difference value between the value from forecasting and observe are increased more when the ozone concentration has high level. Keywords: ozone , regression , forecast

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