The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality 2011 Q4 results February 2012
Contents
Adapting to a new reality
4
Financial outlook and priorities
6
Risk
8
Funding 9 M&A 11 Innovation 12 A note on methodology
15
Contacts 15
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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Adapting to a new reality
We are proud to present our twelfth quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers in the Netherlands, as part of the Deloitte CFO Initiative. The survey gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing, and reports trends and turning points for you and your business.
Key points from the 2011 Q4 Survey • CFO optimism remains negative. However, the sentiment indicator turns less negative than the previous quarter. • More than half of CFOs still expect an increase of their company’s cash flow over the next twelve months. • Striving for organic growth stays the most prioritized strategy to exercise. Increasing cash flow gains priority. • The continuing decline in the risk appetite has stopped. The appetite for risk rises to the level seen in 2011 Q2. • The overall assessment of the conditions regarding availability and cost of credit remains negative. • Corporate debt is perceived to be the most attractive source of funding. The sentiment on bank borrowing turns negative. • One third of CFOs expect M&A levels to increase in the next twelve months. • Over 80% of CFOs assess the strategic relevance of innovation to be crucial to very crucial, when striving for growth or the continuation of their company.
4
General economic environment In 2011 the Euro crisis has been the main issue in the financial mindsets of European policy makers and financial institutions, and continues to be so. Greece received an additional package of funds from the other Euro countries in the last quarter of 2011, to avoid a Greek default. This did not yet stop the worries around the survival of the Euro. Banks and other financial institutions are negotiating large depreciations on their claims against Greece. This last quarter, banks continued to store record figures for overnight deposits at the European Central Bank, an indicator that mutual trust between banks is low. Banks are still reinforcing their balance sheets, which will impact the cost and availability of credit. Banks are very risk averse in their assessments of granting new credits to companies. The willingness of banks to take high (balance sheet related) risks is low. In December, the European Central Bank (ECB) provided the euro-area banks with an extra 3-year lending facility worth 489 billion euros to expand credit. Last December, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis published its fourth forecast of the Dutch economy in 2011 and beyond. According to this forecast the Dutch economy is projected to shrink by 0.5% in 2012, under the assumption that although the European debt crisis will not be resolved quickly, it will not escalate any further either. During the last quarter of 2011, the ECB twice lowered the interest rates, each time by 0.25%. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations was 1.5% in October, 1.25% in November, and has been 1.0% since 14 December.
CFO Survey CFOs are still fairly gloomy about their financial prospects compared to three months ago. The sentiment indicator remains negative. However, the indicator is climbing again, as though CFOs are adapting to a new reality of uncertainty and a harsh financial and economic climate. One of the growing business priorities is to increase the cash flow. Over 50% of CFOs expect an increase of their company’s cash flow over the next twelve months. Over 80% of corporate CFOs think now is not a good time to be taking greater balance sheet related risks. However, due to increased external economic and financial uncertainty CFOs experience higher balance sheet related risks. The perceived availability of credit remains negative. Again, all sources of funding are perceived to be less attractive compared to last quarter. Corporate debt (e.g., bonds) remains the most favoured source of funding. However, the indicator is heading fast in the direction of the zero point, where CFOs are equally positive or negative. Bank borrowing is no longer perceived to be an attractive source of funding by most CFOs. Equity remains the most unfavourable source of funding.
Over 80% of CFOs assess the strategic relevance of innovation to be crucial to very crucial, when striving for growth or the continuation of their company during these current economic hard times. Innovation is prioritized high to very high by some 70% of CFOs on the agenda of the board. Innovation has to be followed up in order to be effective. It is important that organizational goals are set, and KPI’s are formulated to monitor its progress and effectiveness. Innovation has to be concretized in order to be effective and what is being preached needs to be practiced. What is the role of a CFO regarding innovation? Most organizations struggle to concretize innovation. CFOs can contribute to helping their organization structure innovation by setting organizational goals and formulate KPIs. Only then will an organization be able to monitor and track the evolvements and results of innovation.
CFOs expectations for both M&A and Private Equity activity levels remain low this quarter. One third of CFOs expect M&A levels to increase in the next twelve months. Innovation CFOs want to stay in control of their cash flow. However, today’s business environment is characterized by a high economic uncertainty that CFOs have to deal with. Any opportunities for minor cutbacks and other reductions have been seized over the past quarters. These measures can no longer be expected to provide the solution for continuing the daily business or even when striving for growth. A policy of reform is in place and innovation can be a significant pillar.
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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Financial outlook and priorities
The trend is not similar to that in the UK this quarter. The sentiment of CFOs in the UK drops to the level of Dutch CFOs during the third quarter.
Chart 1. Financial prospects NL & UK Net percentage of CFOs who are more optimistic about the financial prospects for their company now versus three months ago. 2009 Q1 More optimistic
CFO optimism does not drop any further after three consecutive quarters of declining sentiments. However, the sentiment remains negative.
2010 Q2
Q3
NL
UK
Q4
Q1
Q2
2011 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
80% 60% 40% 20%
Less optimistic
0%
The Dutch economy went into recession as of the third quarter of 2011. It is expected that this will last during the first half of 2012, but that economic growth will return again in the second half of 2012.
-20% -40% -60%
Chart 2. Percentage of economic growth and outlook of Dutch GDP 2008-2012
| Outlook 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3% Source: Statistics Netherlands, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
6
The number of CFOs that expect their cash flow to decline has more than doubled compared to the previous quarter. More than half the CFOs still expect an increase of their company’s cash flow over the next twelve months. Compared with twelve months ago, 44% of the CFOs expect a stable cash flow or decline (was 20% 2010 Q4).
Chart 3. Change in cash flow over next 12 months Percentage of CFOs who expect the operating or free cash flow for their company to increase/decrease over the next 12 months. 2009 100% 90%
Q1 6
2010 Q2 13
Q3 7
Q4
Q1
9
5
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
9
9
Q1
10
Q3
Q4
4
7
8
15
10
22
13 20
80%
Q2
16
23
16
18
29
33
28
70% 27 60%
39 34
50%
38
46
30
55
40
49
40%
33 41 30
21
30% 24
26
20% 30
10
11
Decline
Organic growth is followed in priority by increasing cash flow and expansion strategies, such as introducing new products or expanding into new markets.
Remain unchanged
23
15
10
5
5
2
Increase by 1%-10%
16
15
18 11
4
2
0%
Striving for organic growth continues to be the most prioritized strategy.
22
17
29
15
16
10%
38
Increase by 11%-20%
Increase by more than 20%
Chart 4. CFOs’ priorities for the next 12 months Percentage of CFOs who have selected each of the following strategies as a strong priority for their business for the next 12 months. 59 56
Organic growth
68
Increasing cash flow gained priority this quarter. Increasing cash flow
41
Introducing new products/services or expanding into new markets
32
13 13
Expanding by acquisition
24 23 8
Increasing capital expenditure
10 13
Raising dividends or share buy backs
3 0
0%
46
78 74
59
46
38 44 46 44
30
19 20
5 5 5
20% 2011 Q4
2011 Q3
40% 2011 Q2
60% 2011 Q1
80%
100%
2010 Q4
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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Risk
The risk appetite has dipped in the third quarter of 2011 to the same levels of the first half of 2009. However, in the fourth quarter the levels go up again, and return to the same level of the second quarter of 2011. 82% of the corporate CFOs think now is not a good time to be taking greater balance sheet related risks, against 18% who think it is.
Chart 5. Attitude towards greater risk on balance sheet Percentage of CFOs reporting that now is (not) a good time to be taking greater balance sheet related risks. 2009 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010 Q1
22
22
Q2
Q3
22
24
Q4
2011 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
60% 39
40% 20%
13
5
2
27
19
18 5
0% -20% -40% -60%
- 61
-80% -100%
- 95
- 98 Yes
During the last quarter the financial risk on the balance sheet over the last twelve months decreased for more CFOs than the previous quarter. When CFOs were asked to assess the level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business, 59% of CFOs rated this level as high to very high (not shown in chart). Some 28% of CFOs rate these conditions to be above normal level. This is rather similar to the previous quarter.
- 78
- 88
- 78
- 78
- 73
- 76
- 81
- 82 - 95
No
Chart 6. Change in financial risk* on balance sheet Percentage of CFOs reporting the level of financial risk on their balance sheet increased/decreased over the last 12 months. 2009 Q1 Q2 60%
Q3
Q4
2010 Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
2011 Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
39
36
48 34
40%
32
23
20%
20
27
24 13
15
13
0% -20% -40%
-22 -30
-33 -45
-49
-60%
-47
-49
-49
-46
-41
-36
-58
-80% Increased
Decreased
* Financial risk could include, levels of gearing, uncertainty about the valuation of assets and interest rate and exchange rate sensitivity.
8
Funding
The results of the ECB’s third quarter Bank Lending survey state: “Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2011, euro area banks expect a further increase in the net tightening of credit standards on loans to Non-financial corporations in comparison with the results for the third quarter.”
Chart 8 presents an overview of the amount of billions of euros which European banks have stored overnight at the overnight deposit facility of the European Central Bank.
Cheap / available
The availability of credit is considered hard to get by most CFOs, while the perceived level of cost is considered high. Banks still need to reinforce their balance sheets, and this clearly influences the availability of credit.
Chart 7. Cost and availability of credit Net Percentage of CFOs reporting that funding for corporates is cheap or expensive, and funding is easily available or hard to get.
2009 Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2011 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20%
Costly / hard to get
The conditions regarding cost and availability of credit turn slightly less negative compared to last quarter. However, the overall sentiment remains negative.
-40% -60% -80% -100%
Availabilty of credit
Cost of credit
Chart 8. Overnight deposit facility European Central Bank 2009-2011 Amount of billions of euros stored by European banks at the overnight deposit facility of the European Central Bank
2009
The amounts stored overnight at the ECB increased in the second half of 2011, peaking at the end of the year. This indicates that the mutual confidence between banks is low and decreases even further. The banks rather store their money overnight at the ECB at a lower rate of interest or at some expense, than lend it to other banks.
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
500 450 400
EUR bln
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: European Central Bank
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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The limited perceived availability of bank credit has turned into a negative sentiment this quarter, as shown in chart nine.
Chart 9. Favoured source of corporate funding Net percentage of CFOs reporting the following sources of funding as (un)attractive.
And again, all sources of funding are perceived to be less attractive compared to last quarter. Atractive
CFOs are almost equally divided regarding the attractiveness of corporate debt: more than one third considers it to be attractive, almost one third is neutral, and one third considers it to be unattractive
2009 Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
60% 40% 20% 0%
Equity is perceived to be the least attractive. Unatractive
-20% -40% -60% Bank borrowing
This last quarter, the average closing rate of the AEX-index was 296.67 (minus 1% compared with the average Q3 closing rate). The lowest closing rate was 270.06 on 4 October, and the highest Q4 closing rate was 315.45 on 27 October. The volatility of the current stock markets remains high.
2009 Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
100% 80% 60% 40% 20%
Not a goor time
0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% Corporate debt
10
Equity
Chart 10. Good time to issue debt/equity? Net percentage of CFOs who think now is (not) a good time to issue debt/equity.
Good time
In general, it is not considered to be a good time to issue debt or equity. The sentiment is almost equal to the previous quarter.
Corporate debt
Equity
2011 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
M&A
CFOs expectations for both M&A and Private Equity activity levels remain low this quarter.
Chart 11. M&A outlook Percentage of CFOs who expect M&A activity to increase/decrease in the next 12 months.
Some 36% of CFOs expect M&A levels to increase in the next twelve months. 28% of CFOs expect PE activity to increase.
2009 Q1
Q2
Q3
100%
The trend of CFOs expectations of Private Equity activity is rather similar to the one shown in the M&A outlook chart.
88
Q4 92
2010 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q3
Q4
100
96 84
84
2011 Q4 Q1
80%
86
80
77
68 60% 40%
30
36
20% 0%
-2
-2
0
-9
-20%
0
0
0
0
-4
-9 -23
-40%
-38 Increase
Chart 12. Dutch M&A market 2007-2011 Dutch M&A activity expressed in number of deals and their value. 800
200,000
600 500
150,000
400 100,000
300 200
50,000
100 0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
Total value disclosed deals (€ mln)
250,000
700 Number of deals
In 2011, the number of deals slightly increased compared to 2010 and 2009. However, the average value of disclosed deals decreased.
Decrease
Number of mid market deals (left-hand scale) Number of deals > EUR 500 mln (left-hand scale) Total value disclosed deals, EUR mln (right-hand scale)
Source: mergermarket
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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Innovation
82% of CFOs consider the strategic significance of innovation crucial to very crucial, when striving for growth or the continuation of their company during these current economic hard times. Over 50% of CFOs state that the strategic significance of innovation increased much or very much because of the crisis. Some 70% of CFOs state that high to very high priority is given to innovation on the agenda of the board.
Chart 13. Strategic significance of innovation Percentage of CFOs who assess the strategic significance of innovation within their organization to be (not) very crucial.
60% 49
50% 40%
49
33
30%
26 21
20%
13
10% 0%
5 Very Very crucial high 1
Strategic significance
To ensure that innovation will be successful it is essential that the different types of innovation are embedded by organizational goals and KPIs. According to the CFOs, market innovation, product and services innovation, and process innovation are most embedded in organizational goals. However, the conversion rate into KPI’s is much lower. It is strongly advised to make innovation related actions concrete and measurable, so they will be transparent and effective.
Crucial High
Neutral Neutral
2
3
5
Not Low crucial 4
Priority on board agenda
Chart 14. Embedding innovation into organizational goals and KPIs Percentage of CFOs who assess the embedding within their own organization of the different types of innovation into organizational goals of KPIs.
Market innovation Product and services innovation Process innovation Business model innovation Social innovation R&D 0%
20%
Organizational goals
12
40%
60% KPI's
Neither
80%
100%
OPEN INNOVATION Combining internal and external sources for both research and commercialization of new technologies and products (source Van de Vrande, Rochemont; 2006)
Chart 15. Number of formal business partnerships Percentage of CFOs assessing the number of formal business partnerships (e.g., joint ventures, licensing) of their organization.
Successful open innovation will result in formal or informal partnerships with other companies, customers or suppliers.
15%
18%
Three-quarters of CFOs claim their company already acts in some or many partnerships. 67%
During the commercialization phase of new products or services, 39% combines external and internal sources in a formalized way. One third combines these sources in a more informal way, like brainstorms.
Many partnerships
Some partnerships
None
More than 60% of CFOs state that more attention should be given to open innovation within their organization to a larger or smaller extent.
CFOs consider agreements on intellectual capital and arrangement on secrecy of information to be the biggest threat of open innovation. Suppliers becoming competitors is also experienced to be a threat, although to a lesser extent.
Chart 16. Threats of open innovation Percentage of CFOs who assess the following aspects to be a threat to open innovation.
Arrangements on secrecy of information
10%
28%
Coming to agreement on intellectual capital 5%
Suppliers become competitors 5% Willingness of customers to commit to a
Willingness of suppliers to commit to a company regarding co-creation
33%
10%
41%
Autonomy and individual creativity of own employees is restricted by external cooperation
5%
0% Big threat
Threat
Little threat
13%
23%
23%
26%
49%
33%
20%
21%
28%
23%
26%
18%
21%
33%
38%
Customers become competitors 3% 13%
21%
21%
21%
15%
company regarding co-creation
23%
10%
41%
40% No threat
60%
21%
80%
100%
Don’t know/no opinion
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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A quarter of CFOs assess the return on investment of current innovation investments within their organization to be high or very high. Most CFOs (32%) assess their current innovation investments within their organization to become profitable within one to two years. Only 3% assesses their investments to remain unprofitable.
Chart 17. Return on investment of current innovation investments Percentage of CFOs who assess the time frame in which the ROI of current innovation investments within their organization will become positive.
50% 40% 32
30%
18
20% 11 10%
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A note on methodology
To enhance readability not all survey questions will be reported in each quarterly survey. Survey questions will be selected in response to the current financial economic situation. If you wish to receive information about non-reported questions, please contact us. The Deloitte CFO Survey is also executed by other Deloitte countries, for instance in the UK. Comparisons will be made when relevant.
Source Deloitte Research NL Contacts Jan de Rooij Partner Deloitte Global Employer Services JandeRooij@deloitte.nl +31 (0)6 5336 6208
Some of the charts in the Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey show the results in the form of a net balance. This is the percentage of respondents reporting, for instance, that bank credit is attractive minus the percentage stating that bank credit is unattractive. This is a standard way of presenting survey data. Due to rounding answers may not sum to 100%. The 2011 Q4 survey took place between 15 December and 13 January. A total of 39 corporate CFOs, representing a net turnover per company of approximately EUR 2.3 billion, completed our survey. The responding companies can be categorized as follows: less than 100 million (5%), 100 – 499 million (33%), 500 – 999 million (19%), 1 – 4.9 billion (31%), more than 5 billion (12%). The participating CFOs are active in a variety of industries: Retail/Wholesale, Manufacturing Technology Real Estate, Consulting, Entertainment, Communication, Energy & Utilities, Transport, and Banking/Finance/Insurance. We would like to thank all participating CFOs for completing our survey. We trust that the report makes an interesting read and highlights the challenges facing CFOs. We also hope it provides you with an important benchmark to understand how your organization rates among your peers.
Wilten Smit Function Leader Deloitte Financial Advisory Services WiSmit@deloitte.nl +31 (0)6 5389 7407
Wassili Bertoen Director Deloitte Innovation WBertoen@deloitte.nl +31 (0)6 2127 2293
Liesbeth Bax Deloitte Research NL LBax@deloitte.nl +31 (0)6 1201 0798
Marinda Giethoorn Deloitte Press Officer MGiethoorn@deloitte.nl +31 (0)6 1234 5063
The Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey Adapting to a new reality
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