MOTORCYCLE ELECTRIFICATION Is The Grid Ready For It? By Scot Harden
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he conversion to electric vehicles, and motorcycles, in particular, is gaining momentum. It’s certainly been in the news quite a bit lately. It seems like every major OEM has decided it’s about time to get “in the game” one way or another. And make no mistake, electric motorcycles have a lot going for them: impressive power, low operation costs, Zenlike feeling of floating through space. The experience of riding an electric motorcycle is unique, compelling and satisfying. Most importantly, they offer the possibility of reaching a whole new customer base — what could be better than that for the “powersports” market? However, they also face severe challenges to widescale adoption. The “pain” points can be broken down into three areas: range, recharge times and cost. These are all very real issues that electric motorcycles must overcome before they can become mainstream. For some consumers, though, they have already arrived at a state where they make perfect sense from a commuter’s perspective, as a short, exhilarating weekend ride alternative or for those wishing to make a sustainability statement. I’ve watched the latest moves by Harley-Davidson, Zero Motorcycles and others already in the game with interest. From 2010 till 2016, I was VP of Global Marketing for Zero Motorcycles. While at Zero, I heard every argument imaginable against electric vehicles. Some were quite outlandish and spoke more to the negative bias against all things “green” for some, while others had serious merit. One of the oftenmentioned arguments was the energy grid’s capacity to support widespread electric adoption. My answer back then was no problem; most electric vehicles will charge overnight when demand on the grid is at its lowest. It made perfect sense at first blush, but now I am not so sure, and here is why.
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Back in April, I attended a town council meeting for a small rural community in northeastern Nevada and listened to a presentation by the local power company. They were there to warn the town managers that starting sometime in 2022, Lake Mead will hit 37% capacity (1075 ft), forcing the Bureau of Reclamation to take immediate and drastic action. Without some form of a miraculously “wet” 2021/22 winter and spring, an El Nino event to end all El Ninos, water output from Lake Mead, and in fact, all points along the Colorado River watershed will be reduced by 40% over the next five years. It will have immediate and drastic consequences for the entire southwest. Their goal is to keep enough water flowing through the system to keep the turbines turning at the bottom of Hoover Dam to keep the flow of electricity at a sustainable level. Today it is already at levels where power output is compromised. The main message for the local community: expect considerable increases in energy costs and water rationing at unprecedented levels. A recent Bloomberg report stated that due to the drought, the power output from Hoover Dam has already fallen 25%, while hydropower within California is down 40% overall. Please keep in mind that hydropower represents about 18% of all power consumed by Californians, so it is significant. What is the number 1 source of electricity in California? Natural Gas at 34% (which doesn’t exactly make the best argument for electric vehicle sustainability but let’s save that argument for another day). This is all coming during an unprecedented period of high temperatures, aging infrastructure and brownouts. Toss in the demands coming from complete electrification of the transportation network, and it’s almost a perfect storm headed our way over the next 5 to 10 years. The 100% electrification goal only works in its current form if you drastically curtail use (the number of miles traveled) or conversely, find other power generation sources. As for generating electricity, unless the current public attitude towards nuclear power is reversed, there is no short-term solution to quickly increasing the available capacity. As much as renewables like wind and solar are touted, they only make up 20% of the available power grid in California (and substantially less nationally). And they are seasonal, and in the case of solar, only generating half the day.