evidence to strengthen the evidence on the problem of clearcutting in the Sierras, allowing for a better analysis of the issue.
ii. Improving the Systems Description
The systems description could be improved by obtaining better evidence to understand
the relative magnitude of the relationships depicted in the diagram--for example, is species richness more of a benefit than an increase in water quality? This will help clarify which aspects of clearcutting (and the alternatives) are most and least problematic. The strength and accuracy of the systems diagram would increase if the further research on the evidence of the problem (steps laid out above in part one) and further research on the economic impacts (steps laid out below in part three) was then turned into a metric for the magnitude for each relationship. Steps to improving systems diagram: (1) use increased research and evidence to determine magnitude of each alternative’s effect on the variables (2) create a scale of one to five for the magnitude of each relationship depicted on the systems diagram, and (3) apply magnitude scale to systems diagram so the relative strength of each relationship is easily understood.
iii. Improving the Equity Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis
The best way to improve both the equity analysis and cost-benefit analysis would be to
improve the understanding about the scale and scope of economic effects of both alternatives. The steps to improving the data for these analyses involve: (1) obtain data and determine the direct cost to SPI if they are forced to do only selective logging (2) calculate the amount the company would be forced to raise prices in order to maintain profit margins (3) obtain data or do modeling to understand the elasticity of the price of lumber (4) forecast how all these factors would impact employment within the logging industry (5) model the effects of different forms of clearcutting taxes on SPI, and (6) model different uses or distributions of the revenues generated by a tax.
ESP 168A: Sierra Nevada Deforestation Report
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