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Exporters expect to see 11-13% growth in current fiscal
NEWDELHI:TheIndianindustry remains upbeat about exports in FY24 even as it stares at slowdown in demand for textiles, jewellery, engineering goods and chemicals fromtheUSandtheEU.
Exporters expect a growth of 11-13% in FY24. Cotton textile and apparel exporters expect 8-10% onyear growth in FY24. India clocked $450billionexportsinFy23.
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Exporters expect business to resume fully after July, pinning their optimismonrecoveryintheadvanced marketsandimprovedorderbook.
“We expect $900 billion exports for the full year, of which $500-510 billion would be goods and around $400 billion services,” said Ajay Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), adding that the first and second quarters of the calendar year wouldbeslowforexports.
Exporters said many clients had deferred their shipments from the last fiscal to this financial year and thoseorderswillstartflowingsoon.
Sahai said the volume of orders is lower but the frequency is higher. “By September, we will push orders forChristmasandnewyear,”hesaid.
EEPC India Chairman Arun Kumar Garodia said the RussiaUkrainecrisis,slowdowninadvanced economies, high interest rates and geopolitical tensions will continue to adversely impact trade. “The order book will improve from July. We expect to end the full year with growthhigherthanlastyear,”hesaid.
Strategyunderworks
India’s goods exports shrank 12.7% on-year to $34.66 billion in the first month of FY24, dragged by sluggish demand and recession in major markets while the trade deficit felltoa20-monthlowat$15.2billionin April.
“Looking at the uncertainty, the Government has not fixed any export targetforthecurrentfiscalandwould only forecast, but exporters and industry were asked to give their own targets,” an official said, adding that anoverallstrategybothforgoodsand servicesexportswasneeded.
The commerce and industry ministryhasheldaroundoftalkswith services exporters to formulate short-term, mid-term and long-term strategies.
The share of India’s services exports in overall global services exports has risen from 4% to 4.4%, saidWorldTradeOrganization. SectoralOutlook
Cotton textile and apparel exporters expect 8-10% on-year growth in FY24 after a slow first quarter.
“April was sluggish in terms of demand. There is not much demand internationally. We expect some pick up and exports to increase 8-10% over the last fiscal,” said a representative of the cotton textile industry.
Around 70% of India’s cotton textiles go to the US and the EU but demand is down almost 10% on the retail side, especially home textiles while readymade garments’ demand isdown10-12%overlastyear.
“Commodity prices have fallen, which impacted exports. However, gas prices in the EU and inflation are stabilising. This will help push demand for discretionary spends,” said a representative from the synthetictextileindustry.
Exports of processed foods are likelytorise6-7%thisyear.
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