Furthermore, in response to these sanctions many as with Kenyan and Ethiopian forces. Further Iranian households are exchanging their savings complicating the situation, al-Shabbab is denying from rial to dollars, spurring further currency access to many humanitarian groups offering deflation and deteriorating purchasing power food assistance, and the United States is limiting for basic food commodities. Given the turmoil food aid and not allowing U.S. banks to transmit surrounding Iran, and the tremendous change remittances from Somalis in the United States to in governments and Somalia, for fear that social movement in the assistance could In many countries, underlying the region, there will be diverted to support conditions exist where a food likely be increasing al-Shabaab insurgents. pressure on the shortage or price spike could easily The unstable refugee government to combat situation is worsened spark significant unrest. increasing food prices by concerns that alto promote stability. Shabaab is using the This may prove difficult in light of efforts over exodus of Somalis as a cover to infiltrate Kenya. the past few years by the Iranian government to Kenyan authorities are trying to identify the alreduce domestic food subsidies to consumers. Shabaab members, which has escalated violence in the camps. The result is that refugees are caught in SOMALIA the middle and abused by both sides, and threats For much of the past two years, severe drought by al-Shabaab have contributed to a new level of and persistent famine have plagued Somalia. insecurity in Kenya. The country is now largely reliant on food aid and imports, despite having the capacity to be In these countries, as well as many others around agriculturally productive. Many farmers have the world, emergency assistance will likely be been driven off their lands. Almost 1 million required for much of 2013. It is impossible to Somali refugees have fled to neighboring Kenya predict where food price and supply volatility and Ethiopia. The camps in Dadaab, Kenya, will lead to insecurity. However, it is clear that in are host to approximately half of the refugees. many countries underlying conditions exist where These conditions are exacerbated by increased a food shortage or price spike could easily spark conflict between al-Shabaab and the African significant unrest. g Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), as well
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