FTA and DV Re-Arrests 06

39 arraignment) were more likely to fail to appear. This finding suggests that the court’s initial reluctance to release the defendant on recognizance at arraignment was an accurate indication that the defendant posed a higher than average risk of failure to appear. The remaining variables included in the model had relatively weak effects that were difficult to interpret, so we do not address them further.

It is worth identifying the variables that were tested but not included in the model.

While some criminal history variables were statistically significant predictors of the likelihood of failure to appear, several other criminal history variables did not add explanatory power to the model: open cases at the time of arrest, prior misdemeanor convictions, prior felony convictions, prior prison sentences, current parole status, and prior sentences as a youthful offender. Three community ties items were not statistically significant in the model: length of time at current address, whether the defendant lived with someone, and whether the defendant lived in the New York City area. Two charge characteristics had no effect on failure to appear, and were not included in the model: number of arrest charges, and severity of arraignment charge.

Finally, sex, ethnicity, and defendant-victim relationship had no effect on failure to appear, after controlling for the effects of the other variables in the model. Some of these variables had very little variance (e.g., only 3% of DV defendants lived outside the New York City area, and only 2% were on parole), so it is not surprising that they did not have a statistically significant impact on failure to appear. Some of these variables were similar to other variables that were included in the model, such as the community ties measures, criminal history measures, and charge characteristics. It may be that the effects of community ties, criminal history, and charge characteristics can be captured by a few key variables, and that other measures are redundant. Finally, the remaining variables that were not included in the model (ethnicity and defendant-victim relationship) were not expected to have an effect, and their absence was not surprising.

Many of the findings reported here for DV defendants are similar to findings from research on general populations of defendants. The influence of criminal history, particularly prior warrant history, and of community ties on the likelihood of failure to appear is consistent with most previous research. A somewhat surprising finding was that age was the strongest predictor of failure to appear for DV defendants. While prior research has found that FTA rates decrease with age, age has generally not been found to be one of the strongest predictors of FTA. Similarly, the influence of type of release (bail vs. ROR) was consistent with prior research, though its impact in this model appears somewhat stronger than in previous studies. The influence of the timing of release (i.e., whether the defendant was released at or after arraignment) is a new finding—this variable has generally not been tested in prior research.