5 minute read
Economic Forecast - BOI
Message from
Roisin Crotty
Head of County for Bank of Ireland Kildare
“I hope that you, your families and your customers are safe and well in these difficult times. At Bank of Ireland our focus is on building strong relationships with our customers and their advisors. We have a team of 90 staff on the ground in Kildare across 11 locations. We are members of our communities and have years of experience in dealing with every facet of both business and personal financial needs. In this update I will give you an overview of our recent Economic Outlook and our latest Economic Pulse survey. I also outline some of the supports available to you, particularly the recently launched COVID-19 Credit Guarantee Scheme, and I encourage you to reach out to any of our advisors across the County for support as we navigate through these challenging times together in Kildare.”
Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse up in September – has now recovered almost 60% of COVID-related losses
Sentiment slumped in March as COVID-19 arrived on Irish shores and began to disrupt normal every-day and commercial life, while April saw an unparalleled fall in activity and sweeping job losses as the country went into full lockdown. But with the public health situation improving and a phased re-opening of the economy underway since mid-May, the economic data point to the beginnings of a rebound over the remainder of the year and into 2021. Even so, the scale of the shock – GDP is forecast to contract by 7.0% in 2020 as a whole – is such that it will take time for the damage to the economy to unwind, with output unlikely to return to its pre-crisis level until 2022. The path of the virus remains uncertain and the recovery process may not be smooth as physical distancing requirements and behavioural changes will impact some business models more than others and some households will take longer to get back on their feet.
The Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse index came in at 65.1 in September and has now recovered almost 60% of its COVID-related losses, according to Dr Loretta O’Sullivan, Group Chief Economist for Bank of Ireland. The index, which combines the results of the Consumer and Business Pulses, was up 5.8 on August but down 11.1 on a year ago. The improvement in the Economic Pulse comes on foot of a rebound in the Business Pulse. Sentiment rose in all four sectors – industry, services, retail and construction - though Brexit was back on firms’ radar as the end of the transition period approaches and the talks on the future UK-EU trade relationship floundered. For households, the heightened uncertainty on this front added to growing concerns about the virus and kept the Consumer Pulse at a low ebb in September.
The September survey also found that escalating tensions between Downing Street and the EU are a concern for businesses, with three in four firms expecting the fallout from the UK’s decision to leave the EU to negatively impact the local economy in their region over the coming 12 months.
Bank of Ireland’s team of sector specialists are recruited from industry so they bring a perspective that only firsthand experience can provide. Our specialists - in hospitality, food and drink, agriculture, retail, manufacturing and other sectors - work closely with our advisors to add value to our customers. Take a look at the Chamber website for regular updates from the Bank of Ireland Sectors team and invitations to sector-specific webinars.
Housing Pulse increases in September
The Housing Pulse index rose for a fifth month (coming in at 62.8, a gain of 4.6 points from August).The share of households expecting house prices to rise over the coming year edged higher (to 35%), while the share anticipating a fall ticked down (to 27%), meaning the balance of positive and negative responses moved back into the black for the first time since March.
The appetite for housing in Kildare remains very keen and with demand far exceeding supply in the county, getting a mortgage ready is even more important today, according to Clodagh Hughes, Bank Manager in Mid Kildare, who is a Chamber of Commerce Board member and also sits on the Local Enterprise Evaluations Committee.
“First off, make that call to one of our 14 mortgage specialists in the county,” Clodagh recommends. “It’s really important to understand your options and you’ll have plenty of questions. We are taking face-to-face meetings if required and are fully compliant with HSE guidelines. You can also find out more and apply through our website at www.bankofireland.com/ mortgages.”
Bank of Ireland stands ready to support customers through the Credit Guarantee Scheme
Bank of Ireland welcomes the launch of the new Covid-19 Credit Guarantee Scheme, designed to help Irish businesses to navigate the ongoing pandemic. The Government has allocated €2 billion under the scheme, with the size of an individual loan linked to business turnover or wage costs, depending on the applicant. The scheme aims primarily to support SMEs nationwide, with the State guaranteeing 80% of the loan.
Since the onset of the global health emergency in March Bank of Ireland has put a range of supports in place for customers, with over 14,000 business loan payment breaks processed in recent months. The Covid-19 Credit Guarantee Scheme provides further support for viable businesses, facilitating additional financial support to lessen the economic impact of the pandemic.
Bank of Ireland has created a new online portal bankofireland. com/cgs to make the application process as simple as possible, and is accepting applications from Thursday 10 September.
