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Component Manufacturing dverti$ dverti $ er
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
Adverti$$er
March 2022 #14272 Page #104
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Housing Momentum Rushing To Over Built
T
here are multiple Overlooked Obvious housing conditions that scream “runaway supply of shelter” is already in process.
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First and foremost, let us differentiate between housing and shelter. Housing demand implies one dwelling for a household. A household is not a family unit... spouses, kids, pets. Households in 2020 are the assortment of people who dwell under one roof.
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This misperception errantly projects that, over the past decade, housing has fallen behind population growth, which is not the same as household formations.
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Latest census data reveals household formations are declining compared to the last four decades by more than 20%. More people. Less families.
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The perceived need for increased housing is a one-off, pandemic-induced desire to spread out. Reality is, people cannot afford to spread out, which is why 30-somethings still live at home, extended family share a dwelling, and the real biggie Overlooked Obvious, Build-To-Rent boom that is/was funded by government stimulus.
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Savings rates and cash on hand has risen over the past two years, which has afforded renters to upgrade from an apartment to a house, or move away from Mom & Dad and get an apartment. That free lottery ticket has already been scratched off and cashed in and there are no more freebies coming.
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All residential building, single and multi-family, build-to-rent, and remodel are powering ahead as though the Fed will continue to pay.
Why would someone choose to rent a home rather than buy when properties are so scarce and building equity rapidly? They know they cannot afford to stay. Build-to-rent and a new apartment is nothing more than a vacation. Check out date is when the money runs out; and it is going fast with inflation at 7% and no more stimulus.
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