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May 2022 #14274 Page #90
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Lumber Briefs Lumber Market FORECAST By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Matt Layman, Publisher
"The lumber market is easy to beat when you know what is coming."
Lumber: “THE” Economic May 2022 Leading Indicator Structural Framing Lumber Market Forecast Advanced Lumber Buying Strategies
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www.laymansguide.com ecession by definition: A recession is a From this perspective, the FDPs should be a leading significant decline in economic activity spread indicator for a slowing economy...by 6–9 months. Now, hold across the economy, lasting more than a on a minute before you dump all your lumber. So far, we Lumber..."THE" Economic Leading Indicator few Lumber..."THE" months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, have not had a lower high, however we did make a lower Economic Leading Indicator employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail low at the week #15 FDP. The FDPs can show us “when” Recession by definition: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting by definition: recession is aeconomy significant declineain economic activity across the lasting sales.Recession A recession begins Ajust after the reaches to look for the spread nextindustrial reversal andeconomy, possible more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, production, andtrend changes. A than aand fewends months, normally visible in real real income, employment, industrial production, and will be an early peakmore of activity economy reaches itsGDP, trough. lower high aatpeak the next FDP, and week #21asarea, wholesale-retail sales.asAthe recession begins just after the economy reaches of activity ends the economy wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy indicator of an economic slowdown. reaches its trough. reaches its trough. Historically, three quartersofofdeclining declining Historically, threeconsecutive consecutive quarters economic activity signals a recession. That is USELESS! Why? Historically, three consecutive quarters of declining economic For activity signals aupdates, recession.you That is USELESS! Why? economic activity signals a recession. Thatindicators is USELESS! bi-weekly know the drill...become an Housing and lumber demand are leading of economic activity. When economists determine a recession is Housing and lumber demand are leading indicators of economic activity. When economists determine a recession is Why?present, Housing and demand are leading indicators of inLLG member. I personally guarantee you will at least double it is by lumber definition, nine months behind a downturn housing stats and lumber demand. present, it is by definition, nine months behind a downturn in housing stats and lumber demand. economic Whenprices, economists Thatactivity. said, lumber even indetermine a recessiona recession still follow cycles; specifically theMy cycles identified by LLG's is minimum 10x your investment. goal for all members That said, lumber prices, even in a recession still follow cycles; specifically the cycles identified by LLG's Forecasted Decision Points. recessions, these FDP's will have lowerand highsknock-on-wood, and lower lows than economic has always is present, it is by definition nineIn months behind a downturn R.O.I., thatinexpectation Forecasted Decision Points. In recessions, these FDP's will have lower highs and lower lows than in economic expansions like the past several years where we see higher highs and lows. in housing stats and lumber demand. been exceeded. expansions like the past several years where we see higher highs and lows.
From this perspective, the FDP's should be a leading indicator for a slowing economy...by 6-9 months. Now, hold From this perspective, the FDP's should be a leading indicator for a slowing economy...by 6-9 months. Now, hold on a minute before you dump all your So far still we have not had a lower high, however we did make a lower That said, lumber prices, in lumber. alumber. recession, on a minute before you dumpeven all your So far we have not had a lower high, however we did make a lower low at the week #15 FDP. The FDPs can show us "when" to look for theForward...ML next reversal and possible trend changes. A Looking follow specifically, cycles by"when" LLG’sto lowcycles: at the week #15 FDP.the The FDPs identified can show us look for the next reversal and possible trend changes. A lower high at the next FDP, week #21 area, will be an early indicator of an economic slowdown. Forecasted Decision Points. In recessions, these FDPs lower high at the next FDP, week #21 area, will be an early indicator of an economic slowdown. A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman’s For bi-weekly updates, you know the drill...become an LLG member. I personally guarantee you will at least will have highs and lower lowsthe than in economic Forlower bi-weekly updates, you know drill...become an LLGLumber member.Guide, I personally guarantee you will least the weekly forecasts andatbuying double your investment. My goal for all members is minimum 10x R.O.I., and knock-on-wood, that expectation has double your investment. My years goal for all members minimumadvisories 10x R.O.I.,that and help knock-on-wood, expectation save has component that manufacturers expansions like the past several where we see is higher Looking Forward...ML always been exceeded. Looking Forward...ML money on lumber purchases every day. You can reach been exceeded. highsalways and lows.
Matt at 336-516-6684 or matt@laymansguide.com.
12-MONTH FORECAST 2x4#2 Composite 2021-Current v. FDP's Forecasted Decision Points Historical Trend; Black Arrows Are Expected Reversals or Accelerations Accumulate or Liquidate Inventory or Order File in Preparation for Coming FDP's. Week 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
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