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Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
January 2022 #14270 Page #92
Adverti$$er
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
The Answers are in Housing “Completions”
Another Recurring Phenomenon: Starts to Completion Ratios If ever I look down and see a penny on the ground, I always pick it up and, without fail, I always do the same thing next. That is scan the surrounding area for another penny. I have been blathering on about the spread between housing starts and completions, making the assumption that, eventually, every started new home gets completed...some time. Not so. Today it crossed my mind that, like all other assumptions, verification can be valuable. Following are some pretty staggering data found on the U.S. Census Bureau web site regarding starts and completion dating back to 1968.
2000 – 2021 2010 – 2021 2021 YTD 2021 Nov
Average Monthly New Home Starts
Completions
S/C Ratio
107.0 89.4 133.7 129.4
103.7 81.4 109.3 102.1
96.9% 91.1% 81.8% 78.9%
Fascinating, eh? For over 50 years, Completions average 97.2% of Starts. (Census Bureau cites “rounding” for the sub 100%). We clearly see the lack of completions over the past decade and the 2021 completions plunge. • 2021 has been the lowest year in five decades for Completions vs. Starts at 82% YTD. • Since 2000, Starts are up 50%, while Completions only 35%. • 2021 November Starts vs. Completions were just 79%, the lowest November EVER! • December is the only month in 53 years that completions have exceeded starts, EVERY year, with an average increase of 48% greater than the previous November. Let’s translate. Continued next page
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