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September 1st, 2016 #09206 Page #47
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
Adverti$er
Published by Layman's Lumber Guide
SEPTEMBER 2016 LUMBER MARKET BLUEPRINT 30-60-90 Day Softwood Framing Lumber Forecast With Buying & Bidding Strategies September 01, 2016
Evaluation
30-Day Strategy-September
60-Day Strategy-October
90-Day Strategy-November
Layman's Lumber Guide has a short-term and longterm lumber market approach. The short term is a weekly strategy that allows you to capture the average $5 price changes every time you buy... delaying buying decisions just a few days in falling markets or acting immediately to avoid price increases. (See Score Card) This Lumber Market "BLUEPRINT" is a long-range timing forecast that helps you bid 30-60 & 90 day jobs as well as prepare for longterm inventory management. Let's take a look at the next three months forecast.
Keep in mind, the graphs below project direction and "when" prices should rise and fall, not what the price will be. September is the second best period of jobsite demand each year. It is also a high volume production month and a time when buyers reduce summer inventory levels. 30-Day Buys: Delay lumber prices until week's end anticipating lower prices through the month. Delay OSB buys the first week of the month then shift to early week buys. 30-Day Bids: September quotes could be offered 35% lower.
Downward momentum in September should create an over-liquidated / underbought condition in October. This will increase new orders for mills and move prices higher. 60-Day Buys: October purchases should be made as soon as needs are realized. Do not delay. Anticipating needs a week or two in advance will get you lower prices as the market moves higher. 60-Day Bids: Early October quotes should be cushioned with a 5% add on; 10% for late month.
After a hearty restocking in October, buyers will begin to consider winter and year end inventory targets, liquidating and thinning positions. In November. This should weaken lumber prices and flatten OSB. •90-Day Buys: Buying strategies for November will again be delaying purchases until week's end as mills lower prices. •90-Day Bids: Hold October quotes for the first half of November. For the second half of the month, reduce prices by 5%.
Lumber Market Forecasted Decision Points - FDP's - (Red) [Forecasts Major Reversal Times] Reversal Weeks Are 86% Accurate +/- 1 week. 2x4 #2 Lumber Composite Price: SYP-E, SPF-W, Dry Hem Fir, Green Doug Fir. SPOT PRICE (Blue).
Sept
375
Oct
Blueprint Expectations
Nov
Lumber
350
52
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
2
48
OSB Market Forecasted Decision Points - FDP's - (Red) [Forecasts Major Reversal Times] Reversal Weeks Are 86% Accurate +/- 1 week. 7/16 Oriented Strand Board (OSB) SPOT PRICE. (Blue).
Sept
Oct
Nov
270 250 230 210 190 170
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52
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
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Sep Oct Nov 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% - 0 -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100%
325 300
OSB
Sep Oct Nov
Bullish Sentiment of Direction; For Each Month; Not Price.
LUMBER MARKET BLUEPRINT...Matt Layman, Publisher Phone or Text: 336-516-6684 Email: matt@laymansguide.org Reprint or distribution is unlawful without permission. www.laymansguide.org TWITTER.com/Laymansguide Join Matt Layman on LinkedIn PHONE: 800-289-5627
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