the 2020 election, unless the notice itself set a later date to be effective. Nevertheless, President Trump’s announcement creates uncertainty about future U.S. participation in the regime. Similarly, at the domestic level, the Trump Administration has announced plans to roll back existing Obama-era efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. While the exact form the rollbacks will take, and how they will be received by the courts, remains unclear, one of the primary targets of the rollbacks is the Clean Power Plan. The Clean Power Plan is the Obamaera Clean Air Act regulatory regime that would have allowed the United States to achieve the emissions reductions commitments it made in its NDC. Regardless of what form the rollbacks take, once the EPA and other agencies have responded to Trump’s directives with more concrete action, we can expect to see considerable, lengthy litigation. This domestic level uncertainty complicates the United States’ participation in the Paris Agreement and undermines the leadership role that the United States played in international climate change politics during the Obama administration.
The United States, of course, is an important actor in international climate change law for political, economic and pure emissions reasons. With respect to emissions, the United States is the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and ranks second only to China with respect to current emissions levels. Thus, any effective international response to climate change requires active participation by both the United States and China. So far, other major parties to the agreement, including the EU and China, have said that a U.S. withdrawal would not affect their resolve. And while it is clear that efforts to rollback existing domestic climate regulatory programs will proceed, albeit slowly, it remains to be seen whether Trump’s announcement of U.S. withdrawal will erode the vitality of the Paris Agreement and ongoing efforts to advance international cooperation on climate change. 1
Paris Agreement, Art 2 (Dec. 13, 2015), in UNFCCC, Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Twenty-First Session, Addendum, at 21, UN Doc. FCCC/ CP/2015/10/Add.1 (Jan. 29, 2016). 2
USA INDC, http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/United%20 States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf.
Cinnamon Carlarne, Esq.
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law carlarne.1@osu.edu
36 | Columbus Bar L aw yers Quarterly Spring 2018