The coffee rust crisis in Central America Impacts on production and some hypotheses on factors that triggered the epidemic
J. Avelino
Costa Rica, February 2013
J. Avelino
El Salvador, April 2013
Jacques Avelino, CIRAD / IICA-PROMECAFE / CATIE jacques.avelino@cirad.fr J.Avelino
Losses reported by the coffee institutes for the 2012-2013 harvest in Central America 2011/2012 exports (bags of 46 kg of green beans)
Loss %
Bags of 46 kg of green beans
State of emergency
Honduras
7 100 000
31 % *
2 190 000
Yes
Guatemala
4 850 000
15 % *
730 000
Yes
Costa Rica
2 008 000
5 % **
100 000
Yes
El Salvador
1 500 000
23 % **
440 000
No
Nicaragua
2 000 000
3% **
59 000
No
Data obtained within the framework of the project « coffee rust control in Mesoamerica » funded by Norway and managed by CATIE (Dr. Elías de Melo) * Estimated reduction of the 2012-2013 harvest , attributed to rust, with respect to 2011-2012 harvest ** With respect to initial 2012/2013 harvest estimates
According to PROMECAFE, rust caused a 20 % production loss in the 2012/2013 harvest equivalent to $ M 500, and 375 000 people lost their job J.Avelino
The 2012-2013 outbreak will cause losses over several years
J. Avelino J. Avelino
Severe defoliation caused by coffee rust (February 2013, Costa Rica)
Stumping to rejuvenate coffee trees after the outbreak (February 2013, Costa Rica)
These trees will produce normally in 2015-2016 If they don’t die : old coffee trees do not respond well to the practice
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Areas requiring renovation or severe pruning (stumping mainly) according to coffee institutes Total planted area (ha)
Severe pruning needed (ha)
Renovation needed (ha)
Minimum production decrease in the 20132014 harvest due the 2012-2013 outbreak
Honduras
280 000
70 000
22 000
33 %
Guatemala
276 500
31 000
6 700
14 %
Costa Rica
93 800
14 600
5 100
21 %
El Salvador
108 000
13 000
1 700
14 %
Nicaragua
180 000
27 000
?
15 %
* Data obtained within the framework of the project « coffee rust control in Mesoamerica » funded by Norway and managed by CATIE (Dr Elías de Melo)
20 % of the Central American coffee area will not produce at all this year and the next one J.Avelino
Coffee rust threatens again
Special climatic conditions (very rainy) which were propitious to fungus reproduction
Low coffee prices which caused a decrease of the number of fungicide and fertilizer applications J.Avelino
Severe outbreak of coffee rust in Nicaragua, in 1995-1996 40 % of incidence on average in Jinotega and Matagalpa at the end of 1995 and beginning of 1996
Severe defoliations and death of branches were observed J. Avelino, 1996
Special climatic conditions (very rainy) which were propitious to fungus reproduction
+ 20 000 ha of coffee were producing for the first time
In both cases the situation came back to normal in the next year J.Avelino
The 2012-2013 outbreak seems different • Almost continental scale (the whole Central America + Mexico + Peru) • Very intense outbreak (affecting even young and low yielding plants)
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Low yielding coffee tree High yielding coffee tree J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses Producer’s actions: Socio-economic aspects Crop Management
Resistance Physiology
Morphology
Host
Pathogen
Architecture
Virulence
Climate
Agressiveness
Soil
Biology
Environment
Topography Landscape
The disease tetrahedron (Zadoks and Schein, 1979)
Natural enemies
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What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: Climate COSTA RICA, ICAFE
Decrease of rainfall
HONDURAS, IHCAFE
Increase of rust
The rainy season, in the second half of the year, was interspersed with dry periods (less rains), with an increase of temperatures (especially minimum temperatures) J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: Management
GUATEMALA ANACAFE
Outbreak intensity was heterogenous within the country, because of climate differences between regions But also heterogeneity in a single coffee area, suggesting more local effects, probably in relation with plant characteristics (fruit load, plant age) and management (particularly shade, fertilizer and fungicide applications)
J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: Climate and Management Drier in the second half of of the year (before and during the harvest period; during the supposed rainy season !)
Increase of temperatures
Low rainfall, enough for germination, and no spore washing; free water from dew could help; dispersal is done by harvesters and High altitude wind Latent stands period shortened behaved as lower altitude plantations
Decrease of coffee prices (-30% in 1 year)
Fertilizer inputs reduced, and fertilizer applications were not effective (reduced growth of coffee trees)
No preventive control; curative control was applied too late, when incidences were very high J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: Climate and Management Drier in the second half of the year (before and during the harvest period; during the supposed rainy season !)
Increase of temperatures Low rainfall, enough for germination and no spore washing; free water from dew could help; High altitude dispersal is done Latent by harvesters and stands period wind shortened behaved as lower altitude plantations
Shade buffers temperatures Shade intercepts dew
Shade retains soil moisture and reduces coffee tree stress
Shade part of the solution ?
J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: New strains of Hemileia ? There was a kind of gradual expansion of the outbreak – Colombia, 2008-2011 – El Salvador, Guatemala reported local outbreaks in 2010 and 2011 (with high altitude plots severely affected in Guatemala: > 1500 m of altitude) – Explosion in 2012: Central America + Mexico – Peru, 2013
Why this gradual expansion ? Do we have new strains more agressive ? Or new strains adapted to different climatic conditions (high altitudes) ? J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: New strains of Hemileia ? New races have been detected in Costa Rica by ICAFE-CIFC (only race II before) : XXXVI (v 2,4,5,8) ? XXIV (v 2,4,5) These new races can be the consequence of the epidemic and not the cause: With a given rate of mutation, there are more mutants when the population of the pathogen is abundant (McDonald, 2002). The probability to have new races is then higher after a severe outbreak. With no selection pressure by the host plant (by resistant gentoypes), these races, hopefully, will disappear.
J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ? Our main hypotheses: Climate was the trigger Disease control and fertilizer applications were deficient The issue of new strains needs to be studied The current situation seems different: Long dry season in 2013 (loss of inoculum; delayed epidemic) Fungicides have been applied (product delivery, training, campaigns) Low yield is expected due to the last coffee rust outbreak (lower physiological susceptibility) J.Avelino
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