COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2016 A1
RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
A2
VERY LOW
A3
LOW
QUITE ACCEPTABLE
FINLAND
A3
A3
SWEDEN UNITED KINGDOM
A4
ESTONIA LATVIA
FRANCE
POLAND
A3
GERMANY
CZECH REPUBLIC AUSTRIA
SWITZERLAND
UKRAINE
ITALY
UNITED STATES
BULGARIA
A3
SPAIN
PORTUGAL
A4
UZBEKISTAN GEORGIA
TURKMENISTAN
TURKEY
TUNISIA
LEBANON
ISRAEL
A3
LIBYA
FINLAND
NORWAY
B
CUBA
MEXICO
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ESTONIA
LATVIA DENMARK
GUATEMALA
MALI
HAITI
FRENCH ANTILLES
VENEZUELA
SURINAM FRENCH GUIANA
PANAMA COLOMBIA
BELGIUM
SLOVENIA
SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA
UKRAINE SLOVAKIA
ROMANIA
BOSNIA
B
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
GREECE
PHILIPPINES
VIETNAM
A4
SRI LAKA MALAYSIA MALDIVES
SINGAPORE
BRAZIL
KENYA
CONGO
INDONESIA
A3
RWANDA
ZAIRE (DRC)
D
BURUNDI
TANZANIA
D
TIMOR-LESTE
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
ANGOLA
MACEDONIA
SPAIN
A3
THAILAND
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
ETHIOPIA
UGANDA
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE
ALBANIA
PORTUGAL
YEMEN
CAMEROON
GHANA TOGO
BULGARIA
MONTENEGRO
HONG KONG
LAOS
CAMBODIA
NIGERIA
GABON
PERU
MYNMAR
BENIN IVORY COAST
SERBIA
ITALY
INDIA
DJIBOUTI
HUNGARY
CROATIA
OMAN
SUDAN
ECUADOR
MOLDOVA
A4
SAUDI ARABIA
ERITREA
CHAD
GUIANA
A3 TAIWAN
NIGER
BURKINA FASO
GUINEA
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
POLAND
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
SENEGAL
NICARAGUA
COSTA RICA
BELARUS
AUSTRIA
CAP VERT
EL SALVADOR
LITHUANIA
NETHERLANDS
BELIZE HONDURAS
RUSSIA
A3
MAURITANIA
JAMAICA
SWEDEN
KUWAIT
A3 CHINA
NEPAL
BAHRAIN QATAR
EGYPT
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
B
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
IRAK
PALESTINE
C
TAJIKISTAN
SYRIA
JORDAN
ICELAND
KYRGYZSTAN
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
GRÈCE
ALGERIA
MOROCCO
MONGOLIA
ROMANIA BOSNIE
A2
KAZAKHSTAN
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
CYPRUS
SWITZERLAND
EXTREME
BELARUS BELGIUM
A2
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
FRANCE
VERY HIGH
LITHUANIA
IRELAND
CZECH REPUBLIC
HIGH
RUSSIA
NORWAY
CANADA
GERMANY
SIGNIFICANT
E
A3
• Comprehension of the business environment
LUXEMBOURG
ACCEPTABLE
D
C
ICELAND
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
UNITED KINGDOM
B
GROENLAND (DENMARK)
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
IRELAND
A4
ZAMBIA BOLIVIA
TURKEY
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
MADAGASCAR
NAMIBIA PARAGUAY
A4
MALTA
CYPRUS
CHILE
MAURITIUS
BOTSWANA
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
AUSTRALIA
D SOUTH AFRICA
ARGENTINA
MOZAMBIQUE
LESOTHO FRENCH POYNESIA
URUGUAY
UPGRADES
FRANCE
DOWNGRADES
A2
• Decrease in business insolvencies: -3.2% expected in 2016 • Higher corporate margins in 2016, supported by the growth in activity and government business support initiatives (CICE) • First quarter showed the highest level of non-financial private investment since 2012
ITALY
A3
• Activity is expected to strengthen in 2016 and 2017, mainly driven by private consumption • Investments are expected to strengthen • Insolvencies since 2015
decreasing
ALGERIA
NEW ZEALAND
C
• High dependence on the oil and gas sector • Growth is expected to slow in 2016, due to fiscal consolidation • FDI inflows remain weak, at 1% of GDP
CHINA
B
• The effectiveness of stimulus measures is being hindered by overcapacity and excessive corporate indebtedness • South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan A3 and Malaysia A4 have been hit by a shock wave. Exports, tourism and investments have been particularly affected
MOZAMBIQUE
D
SAUDI ARABIA
B
• High probability of default on sovereign debt
• Negative effects decline in oil prices
• Investors lack confidence in the solidity of the government and its ability to manage its debt issues
• Fiscal deficit is increasing. Public deposits have slackened, weakening the banking system
• The IMF and World Bank have temporarily suspended financial aid, due to an undisclosed debt of USD 1.4bn
of
the
UNITED STATES
A2
• The post-crisis turning point has been reached, resulting in a rise in business insolvencies for the first time since 2010 • Business eroding
profitability
• Investment is slowing
is