The Claremont Independent - February 2014 by Claremont Independent

CLAREMONT INDEPENDENT VOLUME XXIII, NUMBER 3, FEB 2014

2014: YEAR OF THE ELEPHANT

Harry Arnold • Page 10

CLAREMONT INDEPENDENT table of contents Editor-in-Chief Brad Richardson Publisher Martin Sartorius Managing Editor Harry Arnold Associate Editors Derek Ko Hannah Oh Clay Spence Colin Spence Editor-in-Chief Emerita Marina Giloi Technology Officer Chris Gaarder Layout Editors Lindsey Betts Lynsey Chediak Kelsey Gohn Photographer Lindsey Betts Illustrator Kelsey Gohn Staff Writers Ambika Bist, Brian Eckhardt, Amelia Evrigenis, Nadeem Farooqi, Alexandra Holterman, Eugene Nandwa, Joel Porter, Becky Shin, Albert Xu

EDITORIAL: RUMORS OF GOP’s DEMISE GREATLY EXAGGERATED 3

Brad Richardson, CMC ‘15

A TALE OF TWO UKRAINES

FORECASTING THE FED

GOING POSTAL

THE JOBLESS GENERATION

MY DAY WITH PEGGY NOONAN

2014: YEAR OF THE ELEPHANT

BOYCOTTING ISRAELI ACADEMICS? A RESPONSE TO TSL

TOP-FIVE SPRING BREAK DESTINATIONS

FOUR INTERNSHIP TIPS THAT WILL CHANGE YOUR LIFE

BOOK REVIEW: THE DEMOGRAPHIC DISASTER THAT YOU WEREN’T EXPECTING

Joel Porter, CMC ‘16 Albert Xu, CMC ‘17

Eugene Nandwa, CMC ‘17 Martin Sartorius, CMC ‘15 Ambika Bist, SC ‘15

Harry Arnold, CMC ‘17

Colin Spence, CMC ‘15

Amelia Evrigenis, CMC ‘15 Brian Eckhardt, CMC ‘16

Brad Richardson, CMC ‘15

IN THE BUBBLE

editorial

Rumors of GOP’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated Brad Richardson | Editor-in-Chief Political pundits and journalists have a knack for Monday-morning quarterbacking, and the Super Bowl of such retrospective analysis has to be in the days following the presidential election. After Mitt Romney lost the most recent contest in convincing fashion, commentators and politicians immediately announced that this was surely the end of the Republican Party – once and for all. In the two weeks immediately after the election, Slate ran 33 articles either centered on or in which reference was made to the end of the GOP. The day after the election, PolicyMic proclaimed that the “Republican Party is stuck in the past,” and Business Insider reported that the “Republican Party is imploding,” only to up the ante shortly afterward by invoking the past tense in an article entitled, “Why the Republican Party Died.” Even Republican Sen. Rand Paul called the party “stale and moss-covered,” and fellow GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham proclaimed that the GOP was in a “death spiral.” But literary autopsies on the Republican Party haven’t just been limited to the presidential election as of late. In the wake of the government shutdown (which was regrettable, to say the least), entertainment website BET offered their weighty political opinion with an article entitled, “The Republican Party is Dead”; the Washington Post gave it a bit of a different spin, “The GOP might as well be dead”; the New York Times version was “Republican Collapse”; the New Republic claimed that we were in “The Last Days of the GOP”; and Planned Parenthood Action tried to answer the question appar-

ently on everyone’s mind with their own take: “Is this the end of the Republican Party?” The death-of-the-GOP talking point gets rolled out early and often when Republicans slip up, but is it more wishful thinking than anything? After all, the party is just six years removed from the presidency and still holds a sizable majority in the House. Perhaps even more important (as Harry Arnold points out on page 10), there is very good reason to suspect that Republicans will take back the Senate this November. More on that point: since 1910, nine out of 10 congressional elections in the sixth year of a presidency have favored the party out of power, with average gains of 8.6 seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Democrat Party famously lost 72 House seats in 1938. Each of these sixth year congressional overhauls was a direct indictment of the president himself – usually fueled by an unpopular war, a scandal of some sort, or a despised piece of legislation (the latter two of which President Obama has in spades). It seems that by the time a president has reached the cursed year in office, the American people believe he’s overstayed his welcome and seek to put a check on his remaining two. The Founders greatly admired one thinker whose influence on them is often overlooked today: Isaac Newton. Perhaps pundits and politicians alike would do well to remember Newton’s Third Law: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The pendulum always swings back. CI

The Claremont Independent is an independent journal of campus affairs and political thought serving the colleges of the Claremont Consortium. The magazine receives no funding from any of the colleges and is distributed free of charge on campus. All costs of production are covered by the generous support of private foundations and individuals. The Claremont Independent is dedicated to using journalism and reasoned discourse to advance its ongoing mission of Upholding Truth and Excellence at the Claremont Colleges.

news

A Tale of Two Ukraines

Joel Porter | Staff Writer Unidentified, armed men in full combat gear marched on the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea Feb. 28, storming the parliament building and patrolling airports. Russia, a supporter of the established regime in the Ukraine, responded March 2 with an invasion of their own, demanding Ukrainian troops in Crimea “surrender weapons and leave their bases.” Crimea, a region of Ukraine with a largely Russian population, reacted surprisingly well to this invasion, with the Simferopol Airport running as usual, and Ukrainian police largely ignoring the occupiers. Other regions of Ukraine view the invasion very differently. Ukraine’s interior minister considered these troops to be “an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms,” and the Ukrainian parliament asked Russia to “stop moves that show signs of undermining national sovereignty.” But why is Russia invading Crimea now? The answer hearkens back to Nov. 21 of last year, when former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych broke off arrangements to strengthen ties between Ukraine and the European Union. Yanukovych later announced that Moscow would buy billions of dollars of Ukrainian government bonds, as well as cut down the price of natural gas imports from Russia, indicating a swing in Ukrainian interests from the European Union toward the Russia-headed Eurasian Customs Union. “Russia does not want this large and potentially wealthy country shifting toward the west, both because that would reflect a real loss in its own influence and because of concerns about encirclement by western states,” CMC Associate Professor of Government Jennifer Taw said. The decision between siding with the European Union or Russia is not as clear-cut as the thousands of citizens in the streets of Kiev protesting Russian involvement might imply. It is not even as clear as the strongly worded statements from the Ukrainian government about Russia’s invading troops indicate. Ukraine faces a severe language and ethnic divide, with Russian language and culture dominating the eastern side— including Crimea—while the western half more strongly supports European integration. According to the Washington Post, about 42 percent of Ukrainians supported the deal with the European Union, and about one-third would prefer closer ties with the Eurasian Customs Union. “A turn towards Russia would, in the end, likely spell the end of [the Ukrainian] government’s real power domestically, since Russia would likely assert itself strongly in all spheres of

Ukrainian Protestors in Kiev governance,” Taw said. “I think the protesters recognize this and see movement towards Europe as the lesser of two evils and even potentially, a step into the light from the shadow of a long history under Soviet and then Russian influence.” When Yanukovych signed into law a bill that would restrict free speech and the media Jan. 16, protests worsened, resulting in at least four deaths and hundreds of injured protesters. “[Yanukovych] seems willing to defend himself and his government to an extent the protesters did not expect,” Taw said. “The protesters see the president as illegitimate even though he was voted into office; he appears to have been complicit in corruption and aggressive attacks on his political enemies and he’s consolidating his power.” After protests grew considerably worse Feb. 22, with 77 deaths in a 48-hour period, Ukrainians awoke to President Yanukovych’s absence. The Ukrainian government is currently calling for him to be brought to trial for crimes against protesters, and he responded in turn by fleeing the country. Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine’s acting prime minister, announced after Yanukovych fled that “over $20 billion of gold reserve were embezzled. They took $37 billion of loans that disappeared.” With the movement of Russian troops in Crimea, Ukraine’s struggles have become an international question. Current tensions are reminiscent of Georgia’s struggles in 2008, when former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili said that Russia was trying to “militarily annex” two provinces of Georgia. Russian troops then marched on another sovereign nation’s soil. Soon after Russian troops held those Georgian provinces, about 2000 ethnic Georgian residents were evicted from their homes. Russia’s slow and relentless annexation of territory will continue, unless it confronts serious opposition from the international community. CI

news

Forecasting the Fed

Albert Xu | Staff Writer

who was at the helm during the financial crisis, also led the Fed Janet Yellen was sworn in Feb. 3 to succeed Ben through three periods of quantitative easing from 2008 to 2013, Bernanke as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. She takes over purchasing financial assets, such as Treasury- and mortgageduring a critical period, as the Fed begins to taper and slow backed securities, with longer-term maturities to help lower down its unconventional monetary stimulus. long-term interest rates. Some claim, like former Fed Chairman The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the Alan Greenspan, that quantitative easing has had little impact United States. It creates monetary policy in order to consumin helping the economy recover, as shown by the sluggish mate its dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizeconomic growth in the past few years. Others counter that the ing prices. Traditional policy targets short-term interest rates Fed’s policies have kept the U.S. out of a deflationary cycle, through purchasing and selling which they argue would have led to government-backed securities. a second Great Depression. The Fed stimulates the econo After two strong quarters my by lowering interest rates, of economic growth in 2013 and which promotes consumers more certainty over the country’s and businesses to borrow and fiscal policy, the Fed began to taper spend more. The Fed can also back on its bond-buying program cool down the economy by in December, cutting its asset raising interest rates and conpurchases from $85 billion a month taining inflationary pressures to $75 billion in January. The Fed from aggregate demand. Along intends to lower bond purchases with other federal supervisory each month to gradually phase out agencies, the Fed must also of quantitative easing. Bernanke regulate members of the bankfirst mentioned tapering in June ing industry to ensure stability of 2013, which rattled the markets in the financial system. and shot up interest rates. As the The 2008 financial Fed’s balance sheet continued to crisis most recently put the balloon, investors began to grow Federal Reserve System to the anxious whether the Fed had an eftest. Normally, traditional monfective exit strategy from its quanetary policy would dictate the titative easing program. The Fed’s Fed to conduct open-market tapering in December saw a posioperations to lower short-term Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen tive response, as the market took interest rates; however, during it as a sign of a healthy economy. the subprime crisis, short-term interest rates were already near Bernanke affirmed that short-term interest rates would likely zero, what some call a “liquidity trap,” with any additional remain low even well after unemployment rates become lower stimulus adding to inflation without affecting economic output. than 6.5 percent, a benchmark the Fed had been aiming for. At The Fed had to adopt new, unconventional monetary policy the same time, however, the 6.5 percent target unemployment through quantitative easing and forward guidance to lower the rate is a soft target with the continuation of the Fed’s taperback end of the yield curve, or long-term interest rates. ing adjusting in accordance with the broader conditions of the Principally, the Fed’s unconventional policies work in economy. the same manner as its traditional policies, promoting con Amid new economic data, the market in 2014 has sumers and businesses to borrow more to stimulate economic given a mixed response to the Fed’s tapering. December saw growth. The first method, forward guidance, requires the Fed only 75,000 jobs created, down from 274,000 just the month to guarantee that short-term interest rates will remain low for a prior. January also saw sluggish job growth. The S&P 500 certain period of time, which then lowers longer-term interest went down 3.6 percent in the month, and only 113,000 jobs rates as well. Along with forward guidance, Ben Bernanke, were created, 67,000 short of expectations. The Institute for

opinion

Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, a key tool for calculating the level of capital expenditure in the country, plummeted down in January far below expectations. Although the unemployment rate reached 6.6 percent, the reduction was in part due to workers dropping out of the labor force. High levels of youth, part-time, and long-term unemployment remain a lingering problem. There has also been a direct impact on the international financial markets, as higher interest rates in the United States have investors quickly exiting out of emerging market currencies such as Turkey’s Lira and South Africa’s Rand, leading those countries’ central banks to increase interest rates overnight to make it more attractive to hold their currency relative to the U.S. dollar. Bernanke led the first round of tapering, and Yellen now leads the Fed as it decides its next move. The Federal Reserve System is nothing new to Yellen, as she served as the Vice Chair from 2010 to 2014. The Chairwoman is already leading the Fed through a second round of tapering, reducing Fed spending from $75 billion to $65 billion in February. Like Bernanke, Yellen is “dovish,” concerned more with unemploy-

ment than inflation, and is a supporter of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy. In light of the new economic data, it was unclear whether or not Yellen would continue the Fed’s tapering, especially given her dovish tendencies and academic background in researching unemployment. But on Feb. 11, during her first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony where she reported the Fed’s activities in front of Congress, she stated that the Fed would stay the course and continue to taper. She cited that weak job figures in December and January were largely due to bad weather in those months. Stanley Fischer, former governor of the Bank of Israel, is expected to join Yellen and take her former seat as Vice Chair. Considered more “hawkish,” concerned more with inflation than unemployment, Fischer changes the constitution of the Fed. If he is confirmed, it will be interesting to see how his addition will alter the Fed’s policies. Yellen will continue the Fed’s tapering, although continued sluggish economic growth will lead her to reconsider the Fed’s course of action. Now one of the most powerful people in the world, Yellen undoubtedly understands that her every word will be scrutinized. CI

Going Postal Eugene Nandwa | Staff Writer

The United States Postal Service (USPS) posted an improvement in its first quarter fiscal numbers this year – by posting a $354 million deficit. This number is an improvement because, a year ago, the USPS posted a $1.3 billion loss during its first quarter, which adds up to losses in 19 of the last 21 fiscal quarters. The USPS is turning into a colossal liability that will soon translate into a government bailout if something is not done quickly. While partisan ideologies stand in the way of any meaningful reform, it is the consensus that Congress needs to take some sort of action to stop the financial hemorrhage that has become the national Postal Service. The fall of the USPS has been a result of the decline in the use of physical “snail mail” as the primary form of correspondence, in favor of email and other web-based alternatives. The Postal Service woes are translating into higher prices for consumers. At the beginning of February, the price of first-class mail rose $.03, from $.46 to $.49. While the rise in price may seem minimal, it actually indicates a serious problem for the Postal Service. USPS Board of Governors Chairman Mickey D. Barnett states that prices only increase due to the postal service’s “precarious financial condition.” Postal service rates usually rise in accordance with

Illustration by Kelsey Gohn the annual raise in the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the price of the typical basket of goods that a consumer will buy in a given year. This usually results in an annual 0.1 percent hike in the price of stamps, but the raise this year was equal to

opinion almost 6.5 percent – a price change that indicates a drastic measure to remain financially solvent. A recent NBC News article states that “[t]he USPS last increased prices for a first-class stamp by a penny in January of this year. At the time, the USPS cited losses of about $25 million per day amid declining mail volume as more people use email and social media.” In addition to posting tremendous losses, the USPS has now asked for a bailout from Congress. Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe says the USPS will default on $5.7 billion retiree health benefit prepayments without governmental support. “We cannot return the organization to long-term financial stability without passage of comprehensive postal reform legislation,” Donahoe said. “We appreciate the efforts of the House and Senate oversight committees to make this happen as soon as possible.” One solution slowly gaining momentum is the movement to privatize the USPS. To this point, the Postal Service has been operating as a monopoly. Because they can always fall back on public support regardless of if they provide certain services efficiently and effectively, the Postal Service has little incentive to do just that. The lack of competition has allowed the USPS to compile losses and receive congressional help without any real efforts at improving their operating procedures or appeal to consumer tastes. While some point to congressional help as the solution to the national mail service’s woes, others believe that privatization would remove the thorn in the Postal Service’s side – namely, Congress itself. New York Times columnist Joe Nocera makes this point, writing that “neither the management nor the workers really control the Postal Service. Even though the post office has been self-financed since the 1980s, it remains shackled by Congress, which simply can’t bring itself to allow the service to make its own decisions. And Congress won’t do so, as long as the post office remains part of the government.”

“

The United Kingdom just finished the process of privatizing their mail service, Royal Mail, and The Economist reports the transition thus far as a success: “A freed-up Royal Mail will compete with dozens of nifty competitors for its parcels business, as well as with a new breed of ‘lifestyle couriers,’ who trundle around goods ordered on the Web.” In other countries, such as the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria, privatization of the mail service has resulted in lower prices across the board for consumers. Michael Taube of the Washington Times writes, “Opening up the free market to private enterprise would ensure that real competition exists for mail delivery and postage rates. More businesses and jobs would be created in a thriving marketplace.” In the past five years, mail volume has fallen by more than 20 percent, and USPS revenue has fallen by more than 12 percent. Partisan gridlock has stalled any meaningful reform, and workers are being released as demand for their labor decreases. Chairman of the Financial Strategy and Solutions Group at Citigroup Peter Orszag summarizes: “The U.S. Postal Service has a long and storied history. Yet it is now struggling because the world has changed and because congressional sclerosis has prevented it from adapting to the new realities. The best way to modernize it now is to move it out of the government.” The story of the U.S. Postal Service is not just one of letters and stamps – it’s one that speaks to a greater lesson that Americans should not be quick to forget. Although there are those who propagate the necessity of more government it is often the bureaucracies created under all-expansive governments that countermine the necessity of such ideals. Such institutionalized bureaucracies are slow to respond to consumer pressures and changing tastes, and, more times than not, prevent true in-

While some point to congressional help as the solution to the national mail service’s woes, others believe privatization would remove the thorn in the Postal Service’s side – namely, Congress itself.

novation from taking place. CI

8 opinion

The Jobless Generation: How Obama’s State of the Union Address Ignores America’s Young Adults

Martin Sartorius | Publisher

No, you did not misread the title. After Obama’s State of the Union (SOTU) speech, millennial Democrats on campus (and nationwide) were quick to say how Obama’s proposed policies would help everyone in the nation, including individuals their age. But, if you look a bit deeper, all is not as it seems. In reality, Obama’s policies do not help the job prospects of young Americans who are looking to find their first full-time jobs. At the moment, job prospects for millennials are quite bleak. According to the Generation Opportunity, in January 2014 the unemployment rate of 19-31 year olds, not including those who have given up on looking for work, is 15.8 percent, which is nearly triple the national unemployment rate of 6.6% percent This is extremely worrying, as a study done by Dr. Meg Jay has found that almost two-thirds of an individual’s lifetime wage growth comes during his or her twenties. This means that millennials who are out of work now will face an uphill battle to gain any percentage of the wage they could have earned if they would have found a job earlier. Unfortunately, even in the face of these concerning statistics, Obama has chosen to focus on policies that sound good in theory, but actually further damage the job prospects of millennials. Obama has also been widely applauded by Democrats on campus for his efforts to raise the federal minimum wage and, therefore, help upward mobility in the lower classes. In theory, this sounds great for millennials who are just starting to work in, say, a burger joint. However, a study done by Claremont McKenna College Professor Manfred Keil has shown that an increase in the minimum wage has a negative effect on the employment of workers aged 20-24. Furthermore, Keil has found that increasing the minimum wage has no effect on the employment of those aged over 24. These findings suggest that increasing the minimum wage encourages firms that employ minimum wage workers to hire millennials on a part-time contract, if they hire them at all, since it is cheaper for firms to pay only the increased minimum wage to the workers they already have (whom they cannot easily force into a part-time role). In his speech, Obama also focused on plans to help the long-term unemployed get back to work. Obama spoke about agreements he made with companies such as AT&T and Bank of America, which entailed signing a pledge to not discriminate against the long-term unemployed in their hiring process. While this might not seem to affect younger workers, encouraging firms to hire long-term unemployed individuals just pushes millennials, who presumably have less experience than long-term unemployed workers, further down the list of individuals that firms will hire.

There are two other important factors that have been negatively affecting young job seekers that Obama did not address in his speech. Millennial job prospects are currently being hurt by baby boomers working for more years before retiring. While this trend might reduce the current amount of welfare that the state and federal governments need to pay out to retirees, baby boomers keep millennials out of jobs since firms find it easier and cheaper to keep current employees (who do not need to be trained and already have work experience) and ignore millennials who would like to get into the job market. This crowding out of millennial job seekers has a negative effect on the government’s ability to pay welfare for any social group, since millennials who do not have jobs cannot pay taxes. In addition, Obama’s public healthcare law has encouraged businesses to hire millennials only on a part-time basis in order to avoid having to provide health insurance to them. Since millennials are the most expendable workers with the least bargaining power, there is little that they can do to convince a cost-cutting firm to hire them full-time. Overall, it is quite worrying to see millennial Democrats blindly believe that what Obama is doing is best for people our age. It would be more beneficial for the country as whole if Obama, and Congress, were to enact policies that encourage firms to hire new millennial workers, as they will form the base of the job force for years to come. If not, America will find itself with a generation that lives off of welfare checks in their parents’ basements. In a country that is already trillions of dollars in debt, the last thing we need is for young, able-bodied individuals to give up on finding a job. CI

feature

My Day with Peggy Noonan

Ambika Bist | Staff Writer

I had the wonderful opportunity to spend a day with Bush then called Gore back and said the answer to his question Peggy Noonan, a prolific and widely admired columnist for the is Collin Powell, to which Gore responded, “No, it’s not him. It’s Wall Street Journal, former speechwriter under President Ronald Tony Blair.” Ms. Noonan said that this story was too good to check Reagan, and the best-selling author of eight books on American the validity of, and I am going to go with that, too. politics, history, and culture. She has been called “the voice of The most popular topic of the night was the 2016 presiour times” by USA Today and is an accomplished and esteemed dential election. Ms. Noonan was not bashful in her suspicion that fixture in American political journalism. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may not travel and appeal Considering my inclination toward anything politics, to voters all around the country getting to know Ms. Noonan particularly well. in an intimate and discussion We also talked briefly about oriented environment with other that classic Republican question Scripps students was an extraorof how the GOP could reach out dinary experience. The crossto different demographics betideological dynamic gave me ter. She responded that the party insights into what makes Ms. needs to focus more on middleNoonan such a successful comand working-class. Once the municator. She is articulate, pasbase of the party is there, other sionate, and knowledgeable, but groups will naturally be attractnever condescending. ed. She also said that it would I also had the honor of help if prominent party leaders introducing Ms. Noonan that would stop making unfortunate evening to the greater Claremont gaffes that have become all-toocommunity in Garrison Theater. common in the Republican Party Here she shared her insights and of late, such as saying that 47 experiences through different percent of Americans would political eras dating back to her never vote for a Republican. time in the Reagan administraShe also noted that Tea Party tion. politicians should be weary of She also shared some reporters trying to bait them into hilarious stories that are worth saying stupid or controversial repeating over and over, like this Staff Writer Ambika Bist (left) with Peggy Noonan. Photo things. one: courtesy Ambika Bist. The Elizabeth Hubert Malott After he lost the 2000 speaker series envisioned bringpresidential election to George W. Bush, Al Gore went to Enging speakers to campus who would inspire informed debate on land to meet with the Queen. While there, he asked her how she a range of public policy issues and expose Scripps students to would describe her form of governing. The Queen responded that she surrounds herself with smart people and lets them then do the conservative pont of view seldom heard within academia. As one of the few Scripps students who identifies as contheir jobs. Gore then asked how she knew if they were smart, servative, my day with Peggy was a refreshing change of pace to which prompted the queen to call in then-Prime Minister Tony Blair and ask him, “If your parents had a child who was not your the conversations that usually dominate the campus dialogue. David Brooks, who was the series’ speaker in 2011, brother or sister who would it be?” to which he responded, “Me.” called Scripps students “fiendishly bright” after his time on camAfter returning to Washington, Gore called President George W. Bush and asked him the same question the Queen had asked Tony pus. Ms. Noonan fittingly concurred, noting that she would call Blair. President Bush was perplexed and asked if he could get Scripps students “devlishly brilliant.” But one would not get to back to Gore. Bush and his staff discussed the question, but they see this side of Scripps students without an opposing point of could not figure it out. Eventually, he turned to then-Secretary of State Collin Powell for help, who responded, “It’s me, of course.”

view to bring out the best in us. CI

opinion

2014: Year of the Elephant

Harry Arnold | Managing Editor In a recent Super Bowl Sunday interview with Fox ments that cost them seats once thought to be locks; however, News Channel’s Bill O’Reilly, President Obama essentially the political calculus for Democrats is undeniably grim. proclaimed that he was no more liberal than President Richard Republicans need a net gain of six seats in order to asNixon. Although such a comparison should be left to the histosume control of the Senate. Currently, there are two legitimate rians, it appears Nixon and Obama actually do share something opportunities for Democrats to take control of a Republicanquite similar: abysmally low approval ratings. In fact, Presiheld seat. dent Obama entered January with the lowest approval rating In Kentucky, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch after the fifth year of a presidency since Tricky Dick himself, McConnell will face tough opponents both in the primary and who at the time happened to general elections. But conbe embroiled in a little scandal sidering that in 2012 Obama known as Watergate. While it’s didn’t even eclipse 40 percent all great that Obama joyously of the vote in Kentucky, a sang Kumbaya at his most Democratic victory is a dubirecent State of the Union adous proposition at best. Moredress, it is time for the Presiover, given the magnitude of dent to accept the reality of his this particular race, the Repubsituation. The upcoming 2014 lican establishment will funnel Senate elections are the only millions of dollars into the rething that can possibly salvage election campaign. his presidency and allow him The second opportunity to escape the political Armafor Democrats to flip a seat geddon that ravaged President comes in Georgia, where a Bush. heated Republican primary is Most political pundits expected to take place and a assert that the Republicans will burgeoning Hispanic and Afvery likely maintain control of rican-American population is the House of Representatives quickly turning the state purple. in the upcoming midterms. As Although we won’t be able to a result, if Republicans were forecast this race with much deto assume control of the Sengree of certainty until the canate as well, Obama’s second didates are more set in stone, Illustration by Kelsey Gohn term agenda is essentially a the Peach State still voted Rommoot point. ney by nearly 8 points in 2012, so It appears that the President has indeed come to terms a slight edge still has to be given to Republicans. with the ominous political landscape, as a recent Politico reThe best opportunities for Republicans to pick up the port notes that Obama recently met with vulnerable Demonecessary six seats are in the following states: Arkansas, Louicratic senators, reassuring them that one of his primary goals siana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Alaska, South Dakota is maintaining Democratic control of the Senate. On an embarand Montana. rassing note, a CNN report states that Obama has even vowed Arkansas is widely projected as an unequivocal slam to distance himself from races in states where his approval ratdunk for Republicans. Incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor is taking is anemic. ing on Tom Cotton, a Harvard Law-educated Iraq and AfghaniIt is true that Democrats have a phenomenal grassroots stan veteran who is beloved by the Tea Party and establishment operation, and recent Republican Senate candidates have con(and interestingly a Claremont Graduate University alumnus). sisted of individuals who have made downright idiotic comAlready trailing in the polls, Senator Pryor is scrambling to

opinion avoid any associations with the President as well as disavow his 2010 vote for Obamacare. Regardless, his chances are slim at best, especially in a state where Obama failed to garner even 40 percent of the vote in 2012. Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is also in grave danger of losing her Senate seat. Given that the Bayou state voted for Romney by a margin of 17 points in 2012, Landrieu’s recent reaffirmation of her 2010 Obamacare vote will likely not bode well with voters. Despite the inherent advantage of being an incumbent, Landrieu is already trailing her likely Republican foe, U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy. However, as the sister of the current Mayor of New Orleans and someone who has held her Senate seat since 1997, Landrieu is no political amateur. In fact, she is currently seeking to score some major political capital by spearheading a flood insurance bill that would especially benefit Louisianans. In the end, despite her politically savvy efforts, it is doubtful Landrieu will overcome the vast anti-Obamacare sentiment, which to date has claimed the Senate seats formerly held by Ted Kennedy and even Barack Obama himself. Kay Hagan rode the coattails of Obama’s 2008 election grandeur into her current North Carolina Senate seat. However, it looks like what goes around comes around, as Hagan is now seeking to distance herself from the toxicity of Obamacare, which already has her trailing her Republican adversaries in the polls. Senator Mark Begich of Alaska is in a similar predicament, as he finds himself defending his Obamacare vote in a heavily red state where the President has dismally low approval ratings. In West Virginia, retiring Democrat Senator Jay Rockefeller (the only elected Democrat from the Rockefeller family) is essentially rolling out the red carpet for a Republican successor. President Obama’s less than 30 percent approval rating in West Virginia, which he can attribute to his administration’s assault on the coal industry, is certainly ominous for

“

any Democrat seeking the seat. In South Dakota, former Republican Governor Mike Rounds is projected to waltz into the Senate vacancy created by another retiring Democrat, as he currently leads potential Democrat opponents by wide margins. In nearby Montana, U.S. Representative Steve Daines is leading his Democratic challenger for a Senate seat vacated by Max Baucus, who was recently tapped as the U.S. ambassador to China. In addition to these seven races, there are several other legitimate opportunities for Republicans to pick up additional Senate seats or make up for any unforeseen mishaps (which are not uncommon in the Republican Party). In New Hampshire, Republican Scott Brown (who famously won the late Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat) is already tied with the incumbent Democrat in the polls, despite not even announcing his candidacy. Moreover, the Senate races in Iowa and Michigan, where incumbent Democrats are retiring, are projected to be competitive races. The potential consequences for Democrats in the upcoming Senate elections are monumental. Should Republicans take full control of Congress, the President would be viewed as the primary source of partisan gridlock, as he would find himself daily vetoing GOP bills aimed to reduce our annual deficits and national debt. Given that Obama rammed through Congress numerous bills in his first two years without an ounce of bipartisan support, don’t expect Republicans to succumb to the President’s half-hearted attempts for compromise. More important, the upcoming elections could provide the infrastructure for a quasi-Reagan Revolution in 2016, should a Republican assume control of the White House (or, in a worst-case scenario, mitigate a Hillary Clinton presidency). Liberals need to brace themselves. Say goodbye to the New Deal gravy train and hello to fiscal responsibility. 2014 is the GOP’s for the taking. CI

The potential consequences for Democrats in the upcoming Senate elections are monumental. Should Republicans take full control of Congress, the President would be viewed as the primary source of partisan gridlock, as he would find himself daily vetoing GOP bills aimed to reduce our annual deficits and national debt.

opinion

Photo by Lindsey Betts

Boycotting Israeli Academics? A Response to TSL Colin Spence | Associate Editor The American Studies Association (ASA), a scholarly group that publishes American Quarterly, announced in a statement Dec. 16 that it “endorses and will honor the call of Palestinian civil society for a boycott of Israeli academic institutions. It is also resolved that the ASA supports the protected rights of students and scholars everywhere to engage in research and public speaking about Israel-Palestine and in support of the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement.” The ASA’s statement was strongly criticized by the greater world of academia, with dozens of universities and university presidents, including Pomona’s President Oxtoby, condemning the move. President Sean Decatur of Kenyon College stated that the boycott contradicted the concept of academic freedom, which he defined as “the unfettered exchange of ideas.” This response repudiated the burgeoning movement in some realms of academia to define academic freedom as “the unfettered exchange of ideas – so long as those ideas adhere to a left-liberal orthodoxy. If not, utilize the existence of right-leaning beliefs to infer a degree of moral turpitude upon the person and engage in thinly veiled ad hominem.” Admittedly this interpretation was also limited by its verbosity, but it still apparently holds some sway in the precincts of Pomona College, where a writer in the Feb. 7 issue

of the Student Life took issue with President Oxtoby and dozens of other universities’ stance on the importance of academic freedom. There seems to be some confusion on the part of this article about the facts on the ground. The author declared that Israel has “one of the most illiberal systems of education,” but then completely failed to mention a single university located inside the nation of Israel and seemed to interpret border security measures between warring states as a direct attack on Palestinian academia, and not as a larger part of being in a state of combat. In addition, the author does not mention that, at Israeli universities, students are admitted regardless of ethnicity or faith. Nor does the author mention that these institutions actually practice affirmative action to increase Arab attendance. In addition, the “most illiberal” charge becomes laughable when one considers that Israel has a free press and strongly independent judiciary, and that most of its neighbors are dictatorships that do impose limits on the press and academics, and engage in actual political oppression (see Iran’s hanging of sexual and political dissidents; Egypt’s targeting of Christians; everything Syria has done recently, etc.). This confusion continues as the author notes that Israel’s activities “have been likened to those of South African apartheid.” The passive voice here is important, because the author can simply make the insinuation without substantiating

opinion it in any way. To clarify, ethnic minorities in Israel can serve in government, vote, and benefit from Israeli social services. The only conceivable similarity is that the bulk of Palestinians are physically separated from the Israelis, but unlike South Africa, their separation stems from the fact that they have two (or three, depending on how one categorizes the Hamas-Fatah split) de facto national governments and distinct, if disputed, territory. The two are in conflict with one another, but the history, attitudes, and policies are very different from those in South Africa. The writer also trotted out a point that claims Israel has violated more UN resolutions than any other nation. What he does not explain is that these resolutions were issued primarily by the General Assembly, a generally petty and vindictively political body, and were also nonbinding, a term that should not need defining but apparently has some nuance that escaped our TSL author. The only thing this little statistic tells us is that the General Assembly has a disproportionate interest in the nation of Israel. In addition, the UN frequently ignores the transgressions of its authoritarian member-states in favor of attacking the politically vulnerable. For example, in a recent report, the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child condemned the Holy See for its treatment of children and further demanded that the Vatican abandon several of its longheld political and moral positions in favor of the UN doctrine. It is rather surprising that this was the most pressing issue for this UN committee, but considering that it is made up of members from human rights stalwarts such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Tunisia, Sri Lanka, Egypt, and until last year, Syria, its judgments should probably just be held as sacrosanct. In

“

reality, however, the UN is hardly an authoritative body to appeal to in this instance. None of this is to say that Israel is blameless, or that it has not committed transgressions in this conflict. Very few countries can actually claim and hold the moral high ground, and attempting to develop a simple “good/bad” dichotomy, on either side, serves no practical purpose. To do so would simply drive one party from the negotiating table. This is the primary issue with the ASA’s boycott and the TSL’s support for it. The boycott attempts to ideologically isolate one side, which will likely lead to belief polarization and continued conflict. This is a region with political, religious and ethnic conflicts that span millennia. However, the TSL author seems to think that isolating Israel further will make them more likely to negotiate. This seems unlikely, because while the author heavily emphasized the Palestinian liberty interests, he failed to note that the Israelis also have pressing liberty and security concerns. The Israelis are already isolated, considering that countries that they have fought against on multiple occasions in the last 70 years surround them. In addition, several of their neighbors have also denied their right to exist at various points in time. Isolating them further will not convince them of the security of their position, nor is it at all justified in the context of this conflict. Free academic exchanges will keep international influence ensconced in both countries and improve the likelihood of a real solution. Only an incredibly tendentious reading of history can justify defining this conflict in an absurdly simple and dualistic manner and make a boycott a reasonable response. A real solution means bringing both sides into negotiations, not just one. CI

To clarify, ethnic minorities in Israel can serve in government, vote, and benefit from Israeli social services. The only conceivable similarity is that the bulk of Palestinians are physically separate from Israelies, but unlike South Africa, their separation stems from the fact that they have two (or three, depending on how one categorizes the Hamas-Fatah split) de facto national governments and distinct, if disputed, territory.

casual

Top-Five Spring Break Destinations

Amelia Evrigenis | Staff Writer

Lake Havasu City, Arizona If you’re looking for an all-American, trashy spring break experience, Lake Havasu City is the place for you! Known as “Arizona’s Playground,” Lake Havasu is home to a 24/7 party scene during the spring break season. Enjoy pool, beach, and boat parties with a myriad of young women in bikinis. Athletically inclined spring-breakers can take a break from the partying to pursue water sport activities, such as water- and jet-skiing.

Joshua Tree National Park, California

California State Route 1, more casually referred to as Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) or “The 1,” runs along some of the most beautiful coastlines in the United States. Although the highway runs to Mendocino County in northern California, spring breakers may want to limit their trip to the Southern half of the state, for the sake of both time and money. Hot spots on the PCH include the Laguna, Newport, Huntington Beaches, Santa Barbara County, and Big Sur. Be sure to budget for gas, food and lodging if you plan to spend several days traveling.

Joshua Tree National Park, a more wholesome destination, is a great spring break option for the outdoorsy types among us. Two distinct desert ecosystems meet in this park-the lower Colorado Desert occupying the eastern half, and the higher Mojave Desert occupying the western half. Beyond nature walks and hikes, Joshua Tree is a hot spot for rock climbing and bouldering. Reserve one of nine park campgrounds for an affordable and memorable spring break.

PCH Road Trip

San Francisco, California

For those out-of-state Claremont students who have yet to explore northern California, spring break is the perfect time to visit the “City by the Bay.” Be a shameless tourist and get a taste of San Francisco’s rich historical and cultural offerings. Fan favorites include Union Square, the Fisherman’s Wharf, Chinatown, and the Haight-Ashbury district. Foodies should also know that San Francisco is the prime spot for delicious seafood. A few warnings, though – this trip is likely to be pricey, and for those seeking nightlife, San Francisco is best for students over 21.

Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

A spring break recommendation list wouldn’t be complete without Cabo San Lucas. Cabo’s beautiful beaches and vibrant nightlife attract masses of American spring breakers each year. (The drinking age of 18 seems to be a strong incentive.) Beyond lounging on the beach and hitting the bars and clubs, Cabo spring breakers can enjoy an array of outdoor activities such as snorkeling, scuba diving, and deep sea fishing.

humor

Four Internship Tips That Will Change Your Life Brian Eckhardt | Staff Writer With summer just around the corner, many Claremont students are scrambling to find internships. Anxious about proper application technique, students are increasingly turning to U.S. publishing houses for help. In August of last year, financial magazine Barron’s released a pamphlet entitled “5 Tips to Ace Your Internship Interview.” Two months later, Princeton Review published the widely anticipated “4 Playful Fonts for a Catchy Cover Letter.” Sadly, an initial shortage of copies in the Pacific Northwest led to bookstore riots and the tragic death of a prospective physician assistant. If you have not yet read these books, make haste to your nearest public library, as the information in these two penetrating pieces is positively crucial for aspiring interns. This humble article, while in no way comparable to those two inspiring classics, will analyze the internship process through the lens of career counselors, parents, and employers. What follows are their unabridged insights. I hope you find these perspectives valuable as you begin your summer search. Allan Stafford, Energize Marketing “We began the Energize Your Future internship program this past year. Having never had a program before, we didn’t know what to expect, but it turned out great. Over the thirteen weeks, each of our four unpaid interns contributed around 1,200 hours. Their duties initially consisted of manning telephones, copying papers, and preparing brochures. Three of the four interns excelled in those areas, so we gave them more responsibility. We had them steam clean the carpets and take care of a small rodent problem down in the basement. Catherine from sales was even kind enough to let the interns mend her sons’ soccer jerseys. “Despite our best efforts, sometimes we ran out of projects for them. When that happened, one of the executives would usually invent an assignment, like when the CFO told one of the interns to give a 30-minute presentation about how to give a 30-minute presentation. ‘Daredevil’ Debbie from Accounts Payable even got Jason, one of the newbies, to clip her toenails. All in all, the program was a smashing success. The free labor we squeezed out of those interns generated Energize 1.2 million big ones. We’re now thinking of running the program year-round.”

Mrs. Jodie Moore, 5C Parent “I have no doubt that my son David will procure a prestigious internship this summer, especially considering how he was exposed to the best, most enriching activities throughout childhood and adolescence. I made sure that he developed a diverse skillset by enrolling him in classes covering 13 world languages, including Swahili and the click languages of the Kalahari. I also signed him up for local humanitarian projects. During high school, David was active in Vegetables for Vagabonds, a club that provided gently used produce to nomads in need. He also honed his public-speaking skills by participating in his school’s selective chapter of Future Business Leaders of America. I’m confident his position as treasurer of the club played a key role in his acceptance to CMC. “Even though he is just a freshman at Claremont, businesses seem to be aware of his exceptional talents. For example, he submitted an application to a well-known investment brokerage. While the firm did not extend David an opportunity to interview, it did say that his application was ‘competitive’ and that he should ‘stay in touch.’ I always knew he would do well.” Jessie Andrews, Pomona College Career Services “Hi! I’m Jessie Andrews, but please call me Jessie. I am an advisor in the Pomona College Career Center and my door

books

is always open. Internships are super hard to get nowadays, but there are several steps students can take to boost their chances of success. First, and this one is a biggie: dress appropriately. Men should wear slacks, a buttoned-down shirt, tie and jacket. Ladies, don’t be afraid to hike up those skirts. There’s no better way to catch an employer’s attention than with a couple inches of the upper thigh. Second: spend time on your cover letter. I can’t tell you how many employers receive cover letters with typos and grammatical errors. Proofreading the text only gets you halfway there, though. To finish the letter, you also need to add a bit of artistic flair. That’s why I recommend students submit physical, rather than digital, copies. Nothing says ‘I’m a hard worker’ like scented paper (Morning Mist and Coiled Cobra are my faves) and a sprinkle of glitter. “Third tip, and I can’t emphasize this enough: master the elevator pitch. This can be hard, especially because you only have 30 seconds or so to communicate your relevant talents and accomplishments. My advice is to give your pitch in an actual elevator – that way, if you run out of time, you can pull the emergency brake and lock in another 10 minutes with HR. Lastly, remember to thank the interviewer! These people speak with hundreds of applicants. Break away from the pack by mailing a handwritten thank-you note to your interviewer. To really cinch the deal, enclose a framed photo of yourself. The hiring manager will place your picture next to the photos of her children, and

immediately associate you as part of the family. Checkmate! Best of luck to all of you and please please please come visit me with questions!” Blake Palmer, Synergy Manufacturing “As a state-of-the-art solar panel manufacturer, Synergy doesn’t normally offer summer internships. After all, few undergraduate applicants are qualified. Our whole perspective changed last March, though, after we received a spectacular resume from Sarah Lee, junior at Claremont McKenna College. Here’s a girl who is working toward a degree in Economics, so she’s obviously brilliant. But when I saw that she had a 3.4 GPA, I practically fell out of my chair. I mean, that kind of commitment is astonishing. I didn’t even need to look further down the page to know that this is a person we should hire. “I instantly shared Sarah’s resume with my supervisors. Upon hearing that Sarah was familiar with Microsoft Office, the president spat out a mouthful of coffee and declared that she must be hired—at any cost. We got lucky; after offering Sarah a $140,000 salary with a $10,000 signing bonus, she agreed to intern with us this summer. Sometimes I have nightmares about what would’ve happened to Synergy if she had rejected the offer.” CI

The Demography Disaster that You Weren’t Expecting Brad Richardson | Editor-in-Chief Everything that you know about demography is a lie. That’s the message that Weekly Standard writer Jonathan V. Last screams from the mountain tops in What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster. By examining unprecedent, worldwide shifts in population trends, such as in fertility rates and societal age structures, Last comes to several gloomy conclusions about where we’re headed – but not for the reasons you might expect. Last’s goal is to debunk widely held beliefs about overpopulation, particularly the claims made by author Paul Ehrlich, who plays the villain in Last’s story. Last is the Batman to Ehrlich’s Joker; the Luke Skywalker to his Darth Vader; the Mr. Darcy to his Mr. Wickham. Ehrlich came to international fame and fortune in 1968 when he published his world-wide best-seller, The Population Bomb, which Last jabs at as “one of the most spectacularly foolish books ever published.” And it’s not hard to see why. Ehrlich’s book actually begins: “The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent substantial increase in the world death rate.” This book has sold 3 million copies to date. Yet, even

Source: Amazon

What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster By Jonathan V. Last (Encounter, 240 pp., $23.99)

books today, Ehrlich’s ideas still hold some weight. And perhaps they make intuitive sense. We’re bound to reach our carrying capacity at some point. Overpopulation will naturally lead to resource scarcity, drive down wages, and increase unemployment as too many young people flood the labor market, which will cause global unrest, instability, and violent revolution, so the story goes. Couple all of those factors with increasing worries about a growing population’s effect on environmental degradation and global warming, and you’ve got yourself a doomsday scenario that can go toe-to-toe with the best of ‘em. But Last is not hard on Ehrlich simply because some of his more dramatic predictions have not exactly panned out; rather, Last goes on the full offensive against Ehrlich because at precisely the time that The Population Bomb was hitting bookstands and Ehrlich was getting spots on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson, the exact opposite of what Ehrlich predicted was happening. Although they had gradually been declining for many years beforehand, right around 1968, world fertility rates actually began to go into free fall. The golden number in demography is 2.1. If a country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the average number of children a woman can be expected to have by the time she completes her reproductive years assuming the birth rate remains constant throughout – is above 2.1, then that country’s population will grow; lower, it will shrink; exactly 2.1, and the population will remain constant, which is why the number is often termed the “replacement rate.” In 1979, world TFR was 6.0; today, it’s 2.52 – and rapidly declining. And that 2.52 number is just the average. In many countries, the TFR is substantially lower. Europe is well below the average – such as in Germany, Italy and Greece, all of which sit at right around 1.4; China, an interesting case study because of its one-child policy, is at 1.55; 30 years ago, Iran’s TFR was soaring at 6.5, but today, it’s below the replacement rate at 1.88. Singapore brings up the global rear at a precariously low 0.79. Although the trend has hit more-developed nations harder and faster on average, the majority of less-developed nations are also exhibiting a similar declining trend. In fact, fertility rates are on a downward trajectory in 97 percent of countries around the world. The only exceptions to the great population crunch are several central- and north-African countries, such as Niger (7.03) and Uganda (6.06). The United States, which Last spends the majority of his book discussing, is relatively exceptional (true to form) for a Western nation, sitting at 2.06 – but much of that can be attributed to a growing Hispanic population, which has a TFR of 2.35 and contributed half of the population growth in the U.S. from 2000 to 2010. The white, middle-class TFR in America more closely resembles those found in Europe, at 1.79. While advocates of Ehrlich’s brand of death by overpopulation see these falling numbers as a good thing, Last believes that greater problems than those promised by overpopulation loom in the shadows of a population that is decreasing. But before delving into what some of those problems may be, it is worth detailing what exactly Last believes has caused fertility rates to reach these historic lows in the last 50 years.

College students (and institutions of higher learning themselves) are one of the primary culprits in the era of depopulation. According to Last, higher education has indirectly become one of the most effective forms of birth control in America. The crux of the argument is that couples often put-off having children until they are finished with their educations and well-situated in the workforce. Those four (or more) years of hitting the books, which have become a staple of middle-class life in America, have taken a toll on the number of babies that a family can reasonably be expected to have. Increasing college tuition costs also leave more students straddled with debt by the time they graduate. Many couples are reluctant to start families with a significant amount of debt, pushing the age of family formation back even further. The notion that couples don’t want to start families while burdened with debt tells us something: namely, that kids are really, really expensive. By some measures – when factoring in costs such as paying for college and the lost wages of a spouse who exits the workforce – it costs an average of $1.1 million to raise a kid in middle-class America today. This economic disincentive marks a striking difference in how we view children today and how they have often been looked at throughout human history. There used to be an economic incentive that motivated couples to have children – the need for someone to take care of them in old age; however, with the advent of the New Deal and programs like Social Security and Medicare, one sees little reason at all, at least when the bottom line is concerned, to have children anymore. Last even notes that things like car-seat laws have added yet another economic burden on the prospect of having children. It’s not the car seats themselves that are expensive, but the bigger (or additional) cars that car-seat laws force families to buy if they want more than two children. The typical five-seat sedan can only fit two gargantuan booster seats in the back, and some state laws may cause smaller children to use them until they are 12 years old. If a family wants a third child badly enough, they will likely do so regardless of such seemingly trivial extra expenses. After all, what’s a few thousand dollars more on a potentially $1.1 million investment? But the increased cost may cause some families on the margin – debating whether or not to have number three – to stick with two. At the very least, it may cause a couple to wait until they are financially better-off to add another member to the family – closing the fertility window ever more. Last also spends considerable time on several social phenomena that emerged out of the Cultural Revolution of the 60s and 70s: Higher divorce rates mean couples are splitting up before they would have normally been finished having children; the prevalence of abortion and increased access birth control have played an obvious role that needs little elaboration; and changing norms about women in the workforce have given many women the choice to put-off having children (or not to have children at all) in favor of beginning their careers. Attributing declining fertility rates with these phenomena is not to say that many of them have not been an overall boon for both individuals and society as a whole; few would argue that more educational and career opportunities for women are bad things. But, as Last stresses, our attitudes and behaviors toward

books

having children and forming families sit precariously upon a ledge. Even minor changes in cultural norms or seemingly irrelevant policy measures have the ability to tip them right over the edge – let alone the vast technological and societal revolutions that have upended American culture since the 1960s – and it’s important to recognize that. “OK – so population is actually declining. What’s the problem?” an Ehrlichian might ask at this point. Well, Last provides a few answers in response. First, when a country remains at sub-replacement-level fertility for a prolonged amount of time, eventually the age structure inverts (imagine an upside-down pyramid). Suddenly, the elderly (or those dependent upon the labor and wages of others) outnumber the youthful (or those who provide the labor and wages). To put it in another perspective, in the German city of Westphalia, there are such tremendous labor shortages for workers to take care of retirees that the government started a program to convert prostitutes into elder-care nurses. Another problem comes with the benefits that the elderly are dependent upon from the state. When Social Security was first enacted in America, there were 160 workers for every one beneficiary; today, that ratio is approaching just two to one. The state is left with a difficult decision: either cut the benefits that the elderly have been promised (and for which they have paid) or increase the tax burden on the young. Neither solution is particularly optimal for maintaining societal stability. The inverted age structure also leads to a second, perhaps more obvious problem: The overall number of people begins to contract and decline as the elderly die off faster than they can be replaced. This phenomenon has hit Germany particularly hard, where, for instance, the city of Hoyerswerda (with a TFR hovering between 0.8 and 1.2 since the fall of the Berlin Wall) has lost half of its population in the last 30 years. The primary role of the Hoyerswerda government today is to demolish buildings in areas that have become ghost towns. More than a third of the housing

in Hoyerswerda has been torn down in the last 30 years. But these problems (if one can even call the prostituteto-nurse program a problem) are trivial compared to some of the others associated with a graying population. Primarily, Last argues, an aging population is not conducive to innovation. The elderly do not invest nearly as much as the young, which will lead to shrinking capital pools and opportunities for technological innovation. Furthermore, innovation is a young man’s game. Economists often point to one’s prime innovative years as between 18 and 34, before one has settled into an established niche. With an aging population comes economic stagnation (if not decline) and an across-the-board hit to quality of life. Conservative pundit Mark Steyn summed it up well: “There is no precedent in human history for economic growth on declining human capital.” Yet, for America, the future remains bright. While world population is expected to peak somewhere around 2050, America’s will keep growing so long as it keeps the proverbial Ellis Island open. A steady flow of immigrants has the ability to curb just about any problem that even the most pessimistic demographer can muster. While conservatives are often quick to harp on the problems associated with illegal immigration (of which there are many legitimate ones, of course), perhaps there will be a time when we desperately want energetic and hard-working young men to cross our borders to take care of our elderly, but we simply won’t be able to entice them to do so. Last offers a crash course in demography – spending much of an early chapter going over the basic terminology and equations in the field – and the oft-overlooked subject’s implications on American politics and culture. Although the subject is serious, the read is enjoyable, and Last is never light on jokes and dry wit. (Chapter names like “SEX!” and “How to Make Babies” give you an idea of what kind of humor you can expect.) It may not convince you to have a baby yourself, but perhaps it will give you an increased level of appreciation for those who do undertake the not-so-glamorous-but-vitally important task. CI

Author Jonathan V. Last at Claremont McKenna College’s Marian Miner Cook Athenaeum. Photo by Lindsey Betts

feature

In the Bubble

It’s impossible to keep up with everything that’s happening around the 5Cs – even for those of us in the journalism business; however, we diligently read through each of the other publications on campus and featured some highlights to keep you up-to-date on the campus dialogue. Here’s what’s happening in the bubble:

visit us online:

claremontindependent.com

Interested in writing for us? Attend our meetings this semester every Sunday at 9:00 p.m. in Kravis Center room 321.