K,
City & State New York
June 26, 2017
right-leaning talk shows. “The rhetoric has been outrageous ... the finger-pointing, just the tone and the angst and the anger directed at Donald Trump, his supporters.” Collins later walked back those statements, saying that he had been caught up in the emotions of the shooting. “It’s time for all of us, including myself, to tone down our rhetoric and recognize that we are all of one country and all proud Americans,” he said in a statement. Then he published an op-ed in The Washington Post reasserting earlier statements that he would now be carrying a gun while touring his district. “I owe it to the people in my community, God help me, to try to stop a threat to
NOT MERELY
NALD TRUMP
T.”
— Rep. CHRIS COLLINS
their safety, should it ever occur because of my presence,” he wrote in the opinion piece. His stance was criticized on social media and elsewhere for what some viewed as hypocrisy. For many, though, Collins’ chief vulnerability is his loyalty to the president. Michelle Johnston Schoeneman, a teacher from Collins’ district, has emerged as a leader of the grass-roots movements after spearheading efforts to put up the anti-Collins billboards. The billboards display a photoshopped image of the congressman throwing his hands in the air and the message, “Where’s Chris Collins? WNY would like a word … .” As she visits towns and villages organizing against Collins, she has heard a common refrain that gives her confidence that the congressman can be de-
feated: buyer’s remorse for the man to whom he hitched his wagon, President Donald Trump. “With every passing day of his presidency he becomes more of a disaster and, therefore, so does Collins,” said Johnston Schoeneman, who is now running for county legislature as a first-time candidate. The Collins camp is showing no signs of worry. Collins declined to be interviewed for this story, but Grant, the congressman’s political adviser, was dismissive of the early noise from Democrats. “The Democrats are really good at bluster,” Grant said. “What they aren’t really good at is action and moving the ball forward.” Nick Langworthy, the Erie County Republican Committee chairman who has helped Collins win campaigns for Erie County executive and Congress, said the extra scrutiny is all part of being in the spotlight. Given Collins’ work for the Trump campaign, his spot on the transition team and his status as the president’s top liaison on Capitol Hill, it was expected that he would become fodder for Democrats, and the media writ large. What’s different this year, Langworthy said, is the current “period of political warfare” akin to what is normally reserved for the heart of campaign season. “He was going to become a target, especially after the exposure he received as a national surrogate,” Langworthy said. “He is a very easy target for Democrats to use to raise money, to raise their rallying cry amongst their core base.”
D
ESPITE THE DEMOCRATS’ saber rattling, defeating Collins would take a great plan, a tremendous candidate, exquisite execution, ideal political circumstances and at least a little luck. Across the board, experts and insiders agree that even if all of those elements were to come together, the Democrats, who are still in the process of picking a candidate, would also need for the current conditions working in their favor to hold – Trump’s low approval rating, dismay over efforts to scale back Obamacare and scant progress on other major legislative goals. Brad Blakeman, a Beltway GOP strategist who was a member of former President George W. Bush’s senior staff, said the Democrats’ best chance of gaining significant headway in the House and Senate at the midterms is if Republicans
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fail to accomplish any of their major goals from the campaign season – health care, infrastructure and tax reform – by the end of the year. Senate Republicans have been hammered for crafting their own recently released health care bill in private, and it remains unclear whether the controversial measure will have enough votes to pass. Trump’s tax plan amounts to little more than the list of bullet points he presented during his campaign and substantial details are not expected until at least the fall. His $1 trillion infrastructure plan, which he dedicated an entire week to promoting, also has little detail. “If they cannot produce legislation, specifically on health care, infrastructure, taxes, then there’s going to be hell to pay in 2018,” Blakeman said. Even if all those stars align for the Democrats, history paints a bleak picture for their party in New York’s 27th Congressional District. In 2012, Collins, who had served one term as Erie County executive before losing to Mark Poloncarz, barely defeated incumbent Kathy Hochul. Despite a Republican voter registration advantage, Collins won by fewer than 2 percentage points. And to even keep things that close, Hochul had to spend nearly $5 million to his $1.4 million, according to campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission. Collins routed political neophytes in his two successful re-election bids, far outpacing the roughly 10 percentage point registration advantage Republicans enjoy in the district. On top of all that, local Democrats have yet to name a candidate, though a coalition of the district’s county committee chairs and some grass-roots organizations called Turn NY-27 Blue is in the process of interviewing a list of 10 people – the group has kept the names secret – who want the opportunity to take on Collins. The two initial frontrunners, Hochul and Poloncarz, declined to run for the seat. Neither lives in the district now. “If they had a rock-solid candidate, there wouldn’t be the need for the charade of a process,” Langworthy said. Still, Jeremy Zellner, the Erie County Democratic Committee chairman, is as optimistic that Democrats can retake the seat as he has been since Collins first won. “Two years ago, we didn’t have anyone,” at this point in the cycle, he said. Zellner, who is part of Turn NY27 Blue, said the group has been hearing from constituents who are passionately