COVER
THE NYC DOWN-BALLOT RACES WHERE DEMOCRATS MIGHT NOT BE SHOO-INS By NICK POWELL
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NOVEMBER 4, 2013 | cityandstateny.com
MICAH Z. KELLNER
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lection season in New York City is indisputably centered on the primary races. In a city that has long been a Democratic stronghold, the primaries are often the only election that matters, with the general election a mere formality, with the Democrat who wins the party’s nomination cruising into office against largely token Republican or third party opposition. While some predicted that Democratic mayoral nominee and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio might face a more difficult general election challenge than most members of his party in having to take on Republican Joe Lhota, a former MTA chair and deputy mayor, the opposite has proved to be the case. Poll after poll has shown de Blasio pummeling Lhota by more than 40 points, and de Blasio’s message of progressive change has framed the discussion throughout the race. But what of the down-ballot contests New Yorkers will vote on come Nov. 5? Will the maxim that Democrats emerge victorious in general elections hold true in City Council and boroughwide races too? Political observers identify several matchups where a Republican or third party candidate could keep things interesting. Most notable among the City Council showdowns is the crowded 48th District race in Brooklyn, which pits former state senator David Storobin, a Republican, against Democrat Chaim Deutsch, as well as Working Families Party candidate Igor Oberman and write-in candidate Greg Davidzon, a popular Russian radio host. Storobin lost to Simcha Felder in his bid for re-election to the state Senate last year, and this may be his last real shot at holding public office. Sources following the race say that Storobin was thrilled to get a nonRussian Democratic opponent in a district where Russians make up a sizable portion of the voting bloc. Deutsch has a good base of support in the district’s Orthodox Jewish community, but will need to siphon votes from Storobin’s base to keep him at bay. “In a Democratic primary turnout is very low, and you can really focus on the Orthodox, and if you turn them out in big numbers, you can win with them alone,” said a political insider closely following the race. “In a general election that’s a lot harder to do, and the Orthodox are not a majority in the district by any means, so Deutsch is gonna have to cross over and get a lot of Russians.” Davidzon and Oberman are unlikely to
Assemblyman Micah Kellner with Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer at a gay pride parade this summer. Stringer dropped his support for Kellner’s City Council bid in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal, and instead endorsed Kellner’s rival, Ben Kallos. win, but each may play spoiler for Storobin and Deutsch, respectively. Davidzon in particular has repeatedly gone after Storobin on his radio show, famously backing Storobin’s state Senate opponent, Democrat Lew Fidler, and devoting so much air time to bashing Storobin that the latter filed a complaint with the Federal Communications Commission. Fellow Russian candidate Oberman is politically more likely to take votes from Deutsch, but could also appeal to Storobin’s base. Another race that has gained a lot of attention of late is that of the 5th Council District on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, where Democrat Ben Kallos is taking on Republican David Garland and Micah Kellner on the Working Families Party line. Kellner is the big name in the race, as the Assemblyman representing the neighborhood, and likely would have won the Democratic primary for the seat had a messy sexual harassment scandal not derailed his campaign. Boosted by The New York Times’ endorsement and defections from Kellner’s camp, Kallos defeated Kellner in the Democratic primary, and has since secured the backing of most of the labor unions and Democratic establishment. However, prior to the allegations against Kellner surfacing, Kellner had received the WFP ballot line. Though the WFP has repudiated Kellner, he has refused to relent the line, and has forged ahead under the party’s banner. In response, the party recently circulated an email urging its members not to vote for Kellner.
Sources following the race say Garland should not be discounted either. A bona fide “Manhattan Republican,” Garland is a pro-choice, pro–marriage equality candidate who worked in the U.S. Department of Commerce under former President George H.W. Bush before moving to the private sector. While it would seem unlikely for a Republican to emerge in what is typically a liberal bastion of the city, Republican political consultant Rob Ryan notes that the area has seen an influx of younger voters from outside the city who tend to be more conservative, and that the race will be decided by voter turnout. “[Garland] maxed out as far as the [public matching funds] money coming in from the Campaign Finance Board, so he has money to spend, and that’s really the sole area in Manhattan where a Republican would ever have a chance,” Ryan said. “If there’s low turnout because people think the mayor’s race is gonna be a blowout, and low turnout on the Democratic side, and Kellner and Kallos split the pot over there, there’s a chance [Garland] could squeak in if he gets the turnout from the Republicans.” Over in Western Queens Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley is hoping to fend off Republican Craig Caruana in one of the borough’s most conservative districts. Republicans Anthony Como and Dennis Gallagher previously held Crowley’s seat, and while her incumbency and name recognition are advantages in that race, Caruana has slammed Crowley for not being in tune with her constituents’
needs and for being a “lackey” of Council Speaker Christine Quinn. Another more conservative Queens Council district is the 19th District, where Democrat Paul Vallone and Republican Dennis Saffran are vying to replace Republican Councilman Dan Halloran, who is currently under indictment on corruption charges. In 2001 Saffran lost a bid for the seat to Democrat Tony Avella by just under 400 votes, but while sources say Vallone has run a negative campaign that may turn off some voters, others believe Vallone’s name recognition—his father, Peter, was Council Speaker and his brother, Peter Jr., is a term-limited councilman—will help him among the older voters who tend to turn out in the largest number on Election Day. The Council will also lose its top Republican at the end of this year, with Staten Island Councilman Jimmy Oddo term-limited after a 13-year run, though Oddo will likely cruise into office as borough president. His chief of staff, Steven Matteo, is running to replace him and has a huge fundraising edge over his Democratic opponent, John Mancuso. Despite some growing Democratic pockets in the district, this seat figures to stay in Republican hands. Of course, the biggest name in the downballot races, and perhaps the most quixotic candidacy in the city, belong to Brooklyn District Attorney Charles Hynes. Hynes was upset in the Democratic primary by attorney Kenneth Thompson, losing by 10 points after serving as the borough’s chief prosecutor for 24 years. Instead of going quietly into the night and supporting Thompson in November, Hynes decided to relaunch his campaign, armed with the Republican and Conservative ballot lines, in a last-ditch effort to keep his seat. Hynes’ decision to run is looked at by many political observers as a play to preserve his legacy and go out on his own terms. While Hynes is well-known and a proven vote-getter, many of his bases of support, including the Orthodox Jewish community, will likely back a winner rather than support a candidate for the sake of nostalgia. “The impression I get is that he’s not mailing this in,” said political consultant Steven Stites. “Clearly there are a number of Republican pockets that will support him, but this is still a borough-wide race in Brooklyn. It takes a lot, and it’s hard to see how the math adds up for him.”