45,206
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20
18
19
22
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pulled their theatrical release in favour of going straight to a digital platform. Despite the row over “Trolls”, we probably learn more from the fact that all major distributors have stuck to a theatrical release first strategy for nearly all films, postponing and reworking slates rather than rushing to
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17,398
Global Box Office Revenue (in $m) for 2012-2024 — Cinema Intelligence forecast scenario
other windows. An element of experimentation for small or mid-range films on other platforms already exists, but the bedrock of major movies is cinema, and the sector has provided a stable underpinning for distributors during a time of massive change in how people consume their movie
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entertainment. This strongly underlines the role of cinema
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as the key value creator for major movies and is the light at
$20-31bn 97%
the end of the tunnel for the cinema sector. People need OMDIA’s forecast of global Box office losses as a consequence of the CV19 pandemic.
cinema, movies need cinema, and society needs cinema. David Hancock is the head of global film and cinema at OMDIA (formerly IHS Markit) and is president of the EDCF.
By March this year, 97% of all cinema screens worldwide had been closed due to the Coronavirus outbreak, all within six weeks of China first shutting down its cinemas from 27 January.
around 70% down as of early June), and will also be significantly affected in 2021 as social distancing continues until we find a vaccine. The second quarter of the year will be severely impacted, as even cinemas that are open are earning much-reduced revenues due to capacity measures, social distancing and lack of film content. As at early June, OMDIA was tracking 76 countries/provinces/states that had set a date for cinema reopening and 54 of those had already opened. The key market of California opened from 12 June, the UK in early July, France in late June but the cinema world awaits word on China. The prospects for the maintenance of any sort of summer season relies on some key markets opening in time for those releases. Currently, the first big release is currently Disney’s “Mulan” on 24 July, now that Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” has moved from 17 to 31 July. Quite a lot is riding on the launch of these films, allowing us to assess the impact of CV19 on people’s attitudes to cinemagoing in a post-Covid world.
Predicting the future: some scenarios We have been working on scenarios for forecasting how cinema may recover. These range from more positive (using the term loosely) to more negative outcomes. In summary, the business stands to lose between $20-31bn in 2020, from what was expected to be another year well above $40bn in box office. We forecast a figure of 58% down this year as our best estimate. So, over 2020 and 2021, the business could lose $30-35bn in gross box office. However, no-one can predict with total accuracy how cinema in every country will come out of this. I would argue that in all this, one of the main positives for cinema in this bleak situation is that very few major movies www.cinematech.today
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