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Price Hill Press
News
April 13, 2011
Census: West Side of town saw biggest loss Gannett News Service Cincinnati’s West Side neighborhoods suffered the biggest population losses in the city over the past decade, shedding people significantly faster than neighborhoods on the East Side. An Enquirer analysis of U.S. Census data found the West Side lost about 12 percent of its population while the East Side lost 9 percent. The population losses are
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only estimates because the geographic areas measured by the census data released last month do not align precisely with neighborhood boundaries. But the early numbers show a trend that many West Side residents, particularly those closest to downtown, feared in the wake of two recessions and a foreclosure crisis that hit their neighborhoods harder than most. The analysis found population losses in all but one West Side neighborhood and counted eight neighborhoods with drops of 15 percent or more. North Fairmount took the biggest hit with a 51 percent drop, followed by Lower Price Hill, with a 38 percent decline. East Price Hill lost about 15 percent and Westwood, the city’s largest neighborhood, fell by 5 percent. “I’m not at all surprised. We’ve been watching it for years,” said Pete Witte, a life-long resident of West Price Hill and former president of the neighborhood’s civic association. “When I grew up, I thought I lived on the best street, in the best neighborhood, in the best city. “To see that erode is a bummer.”
The analysis also suggests a change - in some cases, a dramatic change - is under way in the racial makeup of several West Side neighborhoods. Westwood lost more than 30 percent of its white population in the past 10 years while its African-American population climbed almost 44 percent. The neighborhood now has a slight African-American majority. The declines in Westwood and other neighborhoods helped reduce the white population in the city to 49 percent, making Cincinnati a “minoritymajority” city for the first time. “You’ve got a tremendous transition going on in the city,” said Gary Wright, president of Wright Futures, a Cincinnati demographics consulting firm. Overall, both the black and white populations fell in the city, but the white population fell almost three times as fast. The African-American population grew 13 percent on the West Side while the white population dropped 30 percent. On the East Side, the African-American population fell about 17 percent while the white population dropped 3 percent. The Hispanic population
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is comparatively small – about 8,500 citywide – but it doubled in the past decade. The growth was fastest on the West Side, which added about 3,000 Hispanics. Taken together, the population shifts resulted in a 10.4 percent drop in the city’s total population, from 331,000 to 297,000. The Enquirer’s analysis includes about 6,000 more people in the city’s total population because it relies on census tracts that sometimes extend beyond city limits. More precise neighborhood data is expected later this summer.
Foreclosures hit hard
Demographers and some longtime residents say the trends found by the analysis are dramatic but not shocking given changes in the city over the past 10 years. The foreclosure crisis, in particular, slammed the West Side harder than the East Side, mainly because the housing stock there is more affordable, easier to convert to rentals and, therefore, more attractive to investors. When those investors collapsed under the weight of loans they couldn’t pay, their properties fell into foreclosure and West Side neighborhoods suffered. One street alone, McPherson Avenue in East Price Hill, had 65 foreclosures out of 110 properties. “We were hit hard by foreclosures,” said Ken Smith, executive director of Price Hill Will, a community group that renovates and sells houses. “We’re still trying to recover from that.” The East Side saw its share of foreclosures, too, and all but three neighborhoods there also lost population. But East Side neighborhoods appear to have benefited from less real estate speculation and more residential development. University Heights, Downtown and Over-the-Rhine all got big infusions of investment dollars for condos, townhouses and apartments. Downtown added about 1,400 people and grew 31.5 percent while University Heights added about 900 people and grew 11 percent. Neighborhoods farther east, such as Hyde Park, Mount Washington and Clifton, lost some population but no more than 3 percent. “It’s been a really good experience,” said Melanie Wissel, who moved into a Downtown condo three years ago with her husband, Ben, from Pleasant Ridge. “It was risky, but we knew we’d love it.” She said they liked it so
much they still live Downtown even after she gave birth to her son seven months ago. She said they don’t have a backyard to play in, but they often walk as a family to the parks or Fountain Square for events. “We’re going to stay,” she said. It was a different story for Mike Cavanaugh, who moved from Westwood to Green Township in 2008 with his wife and three children. He now lives on a quiet cul-de-sac within walking distance of his kids’ school. “It was a hard decision,” said Cavanaugh, whose family had lived in Westwood for generations. “It still bothers me. I felt a loyalty to the neighborhood.” But he said concerns about safety and a noticeable lack of young, middleclass families got him thinking about moving out. When friends ask him about it now, he tells them, “I didn’t leave Westwood. The Westwood I know left me.” Census data suggests he had plenty of company in the past decade as the strong ties many West Side residents have to their neighborhoods began to weaken. Witte said concerns about schools, crime and blight from vacant houses all play a part in motivating people to leave. “Middle-class families want to go where they are comfortable raising their families, and living in the city challenges that,” Witte said. “It’s hard to keep up with the Joneses when you’re working out of 100-year-old houses in Price Hill.” The census data doesn’t track movement of people from community to community, so it’s unclear how much of the West Side’s loss was due to migration. But some say the growth of western suburbs such as Green Township, Miami Township and Harrison indicates that’s where the people are going. “My guess is that group moved further west,” said John Glascock, director of the University of Cincinnati’s Real Estate Center. The loss of that population is bad news for the whole city, even for neighborhoods that gained population or saw only slight declines, said City Council Member Roxanne Qualls. She said she will begin a series of council committee meetings this month to address the issue. “The decrease in property values, the loss in neighborhood stability, none of these are good,” she said. “And they affect the entire city.”
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Income drives change
Glascock said changes in residents’ income are likely the main reason for the decline in the West Side’s population, as well as for the increase in the AfricanAmerican population in several of its largest neighborhoods. He said longtime West Side residents, who tend to be white, are opting for the suburbs because they see it as a step up and can now afford to make the move. He said the newcomers, who tend to be African-American, are moving to the West Side from lower-income neighborhoods for the same reasons. As people get wealthier, they want better choices and “a better total experience,” Glascock said. “They want better schools. They want to park nearby. They want nicer homes.” That was the motivation for Denise Hickson, who works at Kroger Downtown, when she and her family moved from Over-the-Rhine and bought a house in West Price Hill late last year. She said other AfricanAmericans are making the same choice for the same reason: The houses are nice, affordable and close to Downtown. Hickson said she was wary of Price Hill at first because she’d heard the complaints about crime and falling property values and didn’t want to trade one challenging neighborhood for another. “If I had more money, would I have chosen another neighborhood? Possibly,” she said. “But I love what we were able to get here.” Hickson and other West Side residents say one of their biggest concerns about their neighborhoods is the proliferation of rental properties. Some say that trend has been fueled by an expansion of federally subsidized housing. Housing choice vouchers, also known as Section 8, allow poor people to shop around for rentals and many are choosing the West Side. Of the more than 10,000 vouchers in Cincinnati, about 60 percent are being used on the West Side. Some have complained that the influx of Section 8 renters has driven down property values on the West Side, which, in turn, has driven out longtime residents. But others say Section 8 properties often have fewer crime and upkeep problems than nonsubsidized properties because there is more oversight of landlords and tenants. “Yes, West Side neighborhoods have a higher rate of vouchers, but the complaints are overstated,” said Witte, who also is a member of the Cincinnati Metropolitan Housing Authority’s board. He said the loss of owner-occupied homes and the spread of rental properties - not just Section 8 properties - is the West Side’s biggest problem. He said keeping longtime homeowners in the community is the West Side’s best hope, because many of those residents remain active in their neighborhoods and have historic ties to their churches, schools and homes. “One thing West Side neighborhoods have at their core is there are people that love their community,” he said. “That is what I pin my highest hopes on.”