percent over the next couple of years, a rate that would match China’s torrid rate of growth. Just as China can be divided into the economy of the coastal provinces and the economy of the interior, India’s economy can be divided by a line that runs from about 11:00 am on a clock superimposed on the country to a point at about 3:00 pm. Overall, India’s standard of living matches Nigeria’s. Northeast of the line just described, however, India’s standard of living is roughly comparable to that of sub-Saharan Africa. To the southwest of the line, it roughly matches the standard of living of Indonesia, much better than India’s northeast, but still below the standard set by the wealthier economies of Southeast Asia. It would be hard to overstate the optimism in this, the largest of all democracies in the world, embracing over a billion people. The Indian stock market gained almost 50 percent in value over the last ten months. A succession of the world’s leaders — George W. Bush, Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, among others — have paid homage to India with highly publicized visits to Delhi over the last year. To many Indians, it is obvious that India’s turn has come on the world’s stage, just as it is obvious to many Chinese that this will be the Chinese century. But, just as in the case of China, we came to the conclusion that the truth is a little more complicated, and the future full of challenges for India. And just as in the case of China, we came to believe that the future will depend in very important ways on what they do about education. Given the terrible state of the Indian economy in the decades following 1947, the year India gained its independence from Britain, one might conclude that Indian business managers suffer from many of the same shortcomings just described among the Chinese. This is not the case at all. In the Indian caste system, the gurus-scholars are at the top, followed by the warrior class, followed by the businessmen and traders, with other castes below. Over the centuries, this trader class developed formidable business skills which were put to good use in the Raj, when Britain ruled India. In that period, right up to independence, several key National Center on Education and the Economy, 2006
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