Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security
122
APPENDIX B
depend on the river flows for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and tourism. Already the seasonality of the supply and the increasing demand are not well reconciled. If snowmelt begins early and summer is longer, this will affect subsequent downstream uses. To combat this, you can either conserve or store water. The region is losing groundwater according to GRACE data and we do not know much about recharge. Thus, the groundwater profile is incomplete. In India, there is a proposal for a “linking” project, moving “surplus” water from the Himalayan rivers to the “deficient” peninsular rivers. It was estimated that this would include 9 large dams, 24 small dams, and 12,500 canals and cost 200 billion US$. The proposal did not include a feasibility study and did not account for seasonal spikes in hydrographs. The capacity for the links has not even a 10th the capacity needed to carry peak flow. Another challenge for water resources in the region is sedimentation, where the sediment discharge is the highest in the world. There are large knowledge gaps in the Himalayas hindering educated management, including data, the well-coordinated sharing of knowledge, the remoteness of glaciers, seismic risks, and uncertainties in time and space scales, and diversity of uses/users.
Under Pressure: International Water Management Challenges in the Himalayan Region David Michel, The Stimson Center Water managers across the Himalayan region will confront a host of overlapping socioeconomic, environmental, and policy challenges as they strive to fulfill their societies’ future water needs. In many of the great rivers that rise in the Hindu Kush Himalayan mountains—the Amu Darya, Ganges, Indus, Yellow—total withdrawals nearly equal or even surpass long-term flow balances. Water flows across borders throughout the region, and these rivers are “allocated” or distributed. With population growth in India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and changes in dietary patterns, the demand for food will increase. To account for this, irrigation is speculated to increase by 10 percent. Nonagricultural water use will also increase. Projected water deficits vary from country to country and basin to basin, without considering climate change,
which would increase the severity of the situation. For example, there are limited options for adaptability on the Indus. Major infrastructure projects in the Himalayas are commencing to increase water storage; many of them occur in interesting political areas. Water wars are an extreme outcome. Water can also lead to cooperative efforts. However, pressures may be greater than have been accounted for in the past. Many treaties do not have mechanisms to account for water instability and they do not include key players (such as China or Afghanistan).
Demographic Trends, Social Trends, and Possible Futures Sajeda Amin, Population Council People have always moved in response to climate. This is not a new phenomenon. Internal migration tends to be to urban areas, although refugees also migrate internationally (e.g., to London, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and India). The climate conversation is dominated by discussions of low-elevation coastal zones, and in this area of the world, there is very little conversation about migration and the associated human rights. Fertility trends in South Asia are declining generally across the board and are stabilizing. However, Pakistan is “lagging” behind in this respect. Infant mortality is also declining (highest rate in Bangladesh). The percent of population in urban areas is growing steadily. Pakistan has the lowest level of female labor, and there is not much movement in female labor force participation. Education levels have improved dramatically, and gender participation has nearly reached parity. There has also been a shift from agriculture to the service sector within the labor force, hence urban migration. Urban growth in Bangladesh is largely in environmentally vulnerable areas.
Regional Population Trends and Environmental Issues Malea Hoepf, Independent Consultant The countries fed by the Himalayan glaciers have a broad range of demographic histories and futures. All of the countries have experienced dramatic fertility
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.