Glossary of terms
halocarbons and other chlorine and bromine containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
ple, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.
Reliability (Climate Change) Impacts The effects of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation. Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would occur after adaptation.
Mitigation Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although several social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.
No-Regrets Policy A policy that would generate net social and/or economic benefits irrespective of whether or not anthropogenic climate change occurs.
Projection A potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for exam-
Reliability is defined as the likelihood that services are delivered (no failure) within a given period, expressed as a probability. High probabilities indicate high reliability [Hashimoto, T. et al., 1982b].
Resilience A. The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. B. Resiliency is the speed at which the system recovers from a failure, on average. Shorter recovery periods indicate higher resiliency [Hashimoto, T. et al., 1982b].
Risk The potential for realization of unwanted, adverse consequences; usually based on the expected result of the conditional probability of the occurrence of the event multiplied by the consequence of the event, given that it has occurred. What makes a situation risky rather than uncertain is the availability of objective estimates of the probability distribution [USACE, 1992].
Scenario A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. 67