Scenario Six: The internet opens worldwide access to success who has worked in nearly 80 nations, wrote, “The decline of the nation-state is much more the result of the subversion of those supposed to represent and defend the common interest by forces that represent particular ones.”
Some project the possibility of turbulence and even violence. Paul Saffo, forecaster and director of the Institute for the Future, responded, “I mostly agree, but strongly object to the Panglossian overstatement. This trend will continue, but the old order will fight back. National governments will aggressively defend their power, and corporate incumbents will fight dirty against networked challengers. I thus believe that the 2020 networked world will be a turbulent place, full of opportunity and real innovation, but also real risks. Friedman's writings will take their place alongside earlier optimist tracts extolling the wonders of technologies-to-come that over the years touted the benefits of radio (1930s), television (1950s), and personal computers (1970s).” Pekka Nikander of Ericcson Research and the Helsinki Institute for Information Technology, a past member of the Internet Architecture Board, also expressed concerns about aggression. “The hind side of this scenario,” he wrote, “is that the collapse of nation states and other existing power structures is unlikely to be peaceful, causing widespread low-intensity violence.” Robin Lane, teacher and philosopher at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, responded, “It may lead to less conflict between nations. However it may also result in more conflict as it creates cultural interfaces that were not factors in people's experience prior to high-speed international communications.” Ted Coopman of the University of Washington wrote, “Friedman … missed the 'democratization' of mass violence. While there will certainly be mass cooperation and competition, there will also be the ability of heretofore ineffectual entities to project power in unexpected and disruptive ways. This will be especially true for those who hold totalizing worldviews. This will result in a constant, global, low- to medium-intensity insurgent warfare manifesting across all venues and using all manner of repertoires to further agendas or thwart others. This will not be an entirely bad thing, as cooperation and building affinities and alliances will be the keys to success, rather than coercion.”
Some say national divisions are too strong to disappear. Many respondents said the established political systems in current world governments will resist major erosion and remain dominant. “Nation-states can control access to the Internet if they choose to,” wrote Joe Bishop, a vice president with Marratech AB. “I doubt that national boundaries will dissolve by 2020 unless we discover extra-terrestrial intelligent life.” Agreed Charlie Breindahl of the University of Copenhagen: “China is not going away by 2020.” John Quarterman, president of InternetPerils Inc., responded, “Some countries, such as U.S., Japan and China, will remain sufficiently nationalistic that even with blurring they'll
Future of the Internet
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Pew Internet & American Life Project