How to Find Winning Stocks in 2015: What Two Pros Look at Before They Make a Move
Marc Chaikin, CEO John Schlitz, Chief Market Analyst January 22, 2015 Š 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Meet Marc Chaikin and John Schlitz
• Market Technician • Quan7ta7ve Analyst • Entrepreneur
• Market Analyst • Technical Trends • Stock Selec7on
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How Chaikin Analy7cs Boosts Your Results Zeroes in on Winning Stocks and Makes You the “Smart Money”
• Know the Fundamentals without being a Research Analyst • Know the Technicals without being a Market Technician • Profit from a proven quan5ta5ve model without doing the math
• Pinpoint profitable entries with Chaikin Buy/Sell signals
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Problem: Informa7on Overload
Time – Your Most Precious Commodity
The Solu7on: A Disciplined Methodology
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The Chaikin Method
Chaikin Power Gauge ETF Strength Chaikin Buy/Sell Signals Chaikin Technical Indicators Vola7lity Bands, Money Flow, Overbought/Oversold, Rela7ve Strength
Chaikin Power Gauge -‐ Reliable Simple but Powerful
Chaikin Power Gauge Ra7ng Clear summary of a stock’s poten7al -‐ with a record of success
Financials • • • • •
LT Debt to Equity Ra7o Price to Book Value Return on Equity Price to Sales Ra7o Free Cash Flow
Earnings • • • • •
Earnings Growth Earnings Surprise Earnings Trend Projected P/E Ra7o Earnings Consistency
Technicals • Price Trend • Price Trend Rate of Change • Chaikin Money Flow • Rela7ve Strength vs. Market • Volume Trend
Experts • Earnings Es7mate Trend • Short Interest • Insider Ac7vity • Analyst Ra7ngs • Industry Rela7ve Strength
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What to Buy: Marc’s Checklist
• Power Gauge Rating Bullish • Relative Performance Strong • Chaikin Money Flow Strong • Buy Signal in Chaikin Analytics
Market Market Market Market aagrees grees agrees agrees wwith ith wtw ith the he ith M tM he todel he odel MM odel odel
Market agrees with the Model
What to Sell: Marc’s Checklist
• Power Gauge Rating Bearish • Relative Performance Weak • Chaikin Money Flow Weak • Sell Signal in Chaikin Analytics
Market agrees ww ith the MM odel Market agrees ith the odel
Market agrees with the Model
The Dynamic Duo Chaikin Power Gauge Ra7ng and Chaikin Rela7ve Strength
• • • • • •
Rela7ve Strength compares a stock to market over past 26 weeks Displayed as a Red/Green indicator Measures Persistency of stock’s performance rela7ve to S&P 500 Stands alone as a bullish or bearish indicator Ins7tu7onal investors are measured against a benchmark Superior returns come from stocks that outperform the market
Market agrees Market with tahe grees Model with the Model
The Key to Making Money in all Markets SpoGng Personality Changes
• When Rela7ve Strength changes color = personality change • Powerful when it confirms the Power Gauge ra7ng • Because the Market is agreeing with the Model • Chaikin Money Flow can confirm change of personality
Apple: Ripe, Roeen or Reversal -‐ 2013?
Bearish Personality Change
Bearish Personality Change
Play Good Defense Turn Lemons into Lemonade
Market agrees with the Model
Market agrees with the Model
Bearish Personality Change
Market agrees with the Model
From Here to Hawaii “I followed your AMZN trade …. Great trade!! Profit covered next year's total cost of our two months in Hawaii, aDer taxes! My wife thanks you and I thank you. ― RW 4/17/14
Play Offense Well: What to Buy
Price Accelera5on
Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on Price Accelera5on
Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on
Market agrees with the Market Model agrees with the Model
Chaikin Buy/Sell Signals
Buy Signals • • • • • •
Oversold Buy Momentum Breakout Reversal Buy Money Flow Buy Rela7ve Strength Buy Rel. Strength Breakout Buy
Sell Signals • • • • • •
Overbought Sell Momentum Breakdown Reversal Sell Money Flow Sell Rela7ve Strength Sell Rel. Strength Breakdown Sell
Sector / Industry Group Strength = Tailwind
• Strong Groups Put Wind at Your Back = Long Profits • Weak Groups and Sectors = Short Opportuni7es
Sector ETFs Sorted by Power Gauge
XLV – Health Care Outperforming
Nega5ve Personality Change
Price Accelera5on aTer Bullish Earnings Surprise
Market agrees with the Model
XLE – Energy Underperforming
Nega5ve Personality Change
Market agrees with the Model
John Schlitz’s Checklist • Look at 5 year chart to see the bigger picture • Check rela7ve strength of stock to the market • Evaluate buy/sell signals in rela7on to price ac7on • Evaluate price ac7on in rela7on to technical indicators
Market agrees with the Model
Winning Earnings Plays – Long and Short
Market agrees with the Model
Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on aTer Bullish Earnings Surprise Price Accelera5on aTer Bullish Earnings Surprise
Market Market agrees agrees with with the the Model Model
Tes7monial “I am thrilled that I got the heads up to go long SWKS before earnings the first week I subscribed to the service. That trade paid for my en7re yearly subscrip7on. Thanks and I want to compliment you on your user friendly App.” ‒ PH, July 21, 2014 Chaikin Analy5cs Subscriber
Tes7monial Quick $21,500 Profit “Been an AAPLTrader for a year and then added Chaikin Analy7cs Using the Upcoming Earnings Ideas in CA, Nemlix had a Very Bearish ra7ng and was recommended by Chaikin… Bought three put contracts before earnings on 10/15 for $22.20 and sold the day aqer earnings for $93.90. A quick $21,500 profit.” ‒ John V, Chaikin Analy5cs Subscriber
Be the Smart Money – Don’t Wait for Wall Street
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Chaikin Bullish Stock of the Week – Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) – 47.23 Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) has a very bullish Chaikin Power Gauge rating and reports its 3rd quarter earnings after the close on Thursday July 17th The stock is coming off an oversold and recently triggered a Money Flow buy signal in Chaikin Analytics. SWKS has the perfect trifecta of a very bullish Chaikin Power Gauge rating, strong relative strength to the market and very bullish Chaikin Money Flow. Skyworks has averaged a 6.18% gain the day after reporting earnings over the past 3 years. Buy SWKS ahead of Thursday’s earnings report.
Tes7monial Amazing results: Five for Five! “LULU, AA, SWKS, NOW, DWRE. I just closed out DWRE for 14% profit this morning. I have only been a member for a couple of months and have already paid for your annual membership fees several Wmes over on just these five stocks. Thank you for your solid advice.” RM, 8/19/14 Chaikin Analy7cs Subscriber
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