ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Contents
Mark Leonard was director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform until November 2006. In early 2007 he will set up and direct a new pan-European initiative of the Soro s foundations network, to promote the EU as a model for an open society. He is author of ‘Why Europe will run the 21st C e n t u ry ’ (4 th Estate, 2005), and ‘What does China think?’ (4 th Estate, forthcoming May 2007). His previous CER publications include ‘How to strengthen EU foreign policy’ (with Charles Grant, July 2006); ‘The EU’s awkward neighbour: Time for a new policy on Belarus’ (with Charles Grant, April 2006); ‘Democracy in Europe: How the EU can survive in an age of referendums’ (March 2006); ‘Can EU diplomacy stop Iran's nuclear programme?’ (November 2005); and ‘Georgia and the EU: Can Europe’s neighbourhood policy deliver?’ (with Charles Grant, October 2005).
About the author Acknowledgements 1
Introduction: The return of ‘history’
1
2
Multipolar competition
5
3
The American world order
11
4
The alliance of sovereignty
17
5
The world of faith
25
6
The Eurosphere
35
7
Swinging India
39
8
The balance of soft power
45
9
Conclusion: Europe’s role in 2020
51
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to thank the Economist Intelligence Unit, and particularly Daniel Franklin and Laza Kekic, for giving him access to their economic data and projections, as well as their helpful comments on the text. Katinka Barysch, Antonio Borg e s , Michael Butler, Nick Butler, Daniel Franklin, Charles Grant, David Hannay, Daniel Keohane, Alasdair Murr a y, Jeremy Shapiro, David Simon, Andrew Small, Simon Ti l f o rd and Auro re Wanlin have all read drafts of this paper or participated in discussions on it. Thanks also to Kate Meakins for layout and production. ★
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