Adaption to Climate Change - a resilient city for the future

ADAPTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE a resilient city for the future case study and design proposal for Kalvøen, Frederikssund

ADAPTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE a resilient city for the future case study and design proposal for Kalvøen, Frederikssund

Adaption to climate change a resilient city for the future case study and design proposal for Kalvøen, Frederikssund

30 ECTS - Master Thesis University of Copenhagen Faculty of Science Department of Geoscience & Natural Resource Management Master student Jeff William Cecil Lundme Olausson CMZ264 Supervisor Gertrud Jørgensen Submitted 08.03.2021

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Acknowledgements

My biggest thanks to Henriette Steiner, who supported me in a time where I struggled with finding my direction.

I heartfully thank Marina Bergen Jensen, for her fantastic dedication in my first steps of the progress in my master thesis.

I want to thank my supervisor, Gertrud Jørgensen, for her amazing dedication and warm spirit. Even though we have kept a social distance - our meetings have been the best boost of moral throughout this process. Thank you, Gertrud, for your valuable counsel and contribution.

I also want to thank Lone Søderkvist Kristensen for valuable pep talk, Signe Balle Jørgensen for being a fantastic co-student and my husband, for always being there with support.

Also, thanks to Anne-Marie Jørgensen, Frederikssunds Lokalarkiver Elzelina van Moelle, Landscape architect MDL Signe Barnes, SCALGO Carsten Ingemann

Abstract Coastal urban communities are more vulnerable to climate changes than other areas. Storm surges are a main cause of coastal erosion, flooding in urban districts and a degradation of liveable space. The municipalities have a long history of protecting themself, often with traditional methods such as structural adaptions. In a world where more and more people are moving to the urban fabric, cities expand into areas that are more exposed in their search for new territory. This is leading to an acceleration in vulnerability towards climate changes.

In this thesis it will be presented how urban coastal communities can become more resilient against climate change by integrating different adaption approaches into their strategic planning. With new perspectives on how climate adaptation can be applied, our municipalities have the opportunities to create combined and multifunctional solutions. This is done through a case study of Kalvøen in Frederikssund municipality, Denmark. This project underlines the importance of site-specific analyses, and that every landscape is unique. There is no single solution that can fit everywhere.

Research by design has an important part in this project and it is used in an iterative process. Through different design and computer-generated scenarios, the area is being tested for how it would respond to a future with more frequent storm surges affecting the landscape. This knowledge is later brought into an integrated vision for how a transformation of Kalvøen can contribute to a more resilient urban fabric.

Table of content

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 3 ABSTRACT 4 1

// INTRODUCTION 9 1.1.

Motivation 11 1.2.

Background 13 1.3.

Aim 15 1.4.

Methods 16 1.4.1.

Sketching 16 1.4.2.

The role of design in the research 16 1.4.3.

Literature review 17 1.4.4.

The landscape 17 1.4.5.

Cartographic analysis 17 1.4.6.

Reference cases 17 1.5.

Process 18

2

// THEORETICAL REVIEW 21 2.1. Theory of transition – sociotechnical systems 22 2.2.

Actors and legislation 22 2.3. Vulnerability, Adaption, and Resilience 23 2.3.1.

Vulnerability 23 2.3.2.

Adaption 24 2.3.3.

Resilience 25 2.4. Structural and Non-structural approaches to adaption 25 2.4.1.

Structural adaptions 25 2.4.2.

Non-structural adaptions 26 2.5.

Ecosystem-based approach 26 2.6.

Multifunctional landscapes 27

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// THE SITE 29 3.1.

Landscape 30 3.2.

Urbanity 31 3.3. Kalvøen and mainland is connected 32 3.4.

Lowland 33 3.5.

Kalvøen - a trajectory 34 3.6. Frederikssunds relation to climate adaptation 36 3.7. Storm surge and flooding

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4

// UNFOLDING THE LANDSCAPE 38 Introduction 39 4.1.

Relations and access 43 4.2.

Registration 45 4.3.

Green infrastructure 46 4.4.

Expansion of the urban fabric 48 4.5. Cartographic modelling and analysis through

SCALGO Live 49 4.6.

Terrain 50 4.7.

Critical points and levels 51 4.8.

Arrival of a storm 52

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// REFERENCE CASES 54 Introduction 55 5.1. Multifunctional climate protection Sønæs 56 5.2. Urban river park Bishan Ang Mo Kio Park 57 5.3. Sea wall as storm surge protection Jyllinge Nordmark 58 5.4. Climate Adaptation Concepts Buzzard Point 59 5.5. Adapting strategies for Sea Level Rise in the urban fabric

Vejle fjordby 60 Summary of reference cases 61

6

// SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 2-5 62 Introduction 63 6.1.

SWOT analysis 64 6.2.

TOWS model 65

7

// SCENARIOS 69 Introduction 70 7.1.

No interventions 71 7.2.

Urbanization 75 7.3.

Biodiversity 78 7.4.

Recreation 80 Summary of scenarios 84

8. // INTEGRATED VISION 86 Introduction 90 8.1.

Water as an active component 92 8.2.

Vegetation 94 8.3.

Urban structure for the future 96 8.4.

Connectivity 98 OUTRO 100 REFERENCES 103

Introduction

1

Introduction

“My key driver has been to investigate landscape challenges caused by climate change, and the potentials that landscape architecture holds when it comes to adaption, and to create more resilience in the urban fabric.”

12

Introduction

1.1

// Motivation

13

Introduction

1.2

// Background

The world is already experiencing a wide range of problems due to climate changes and more frequent extreme climate events.

Examples of this are increased average temperature, elevated water levels in the oceans and more extreme weather (Andersen, Petersen, Støvring, & Vejre, 2019). This will have a great impact on human society, as culture and climate are interlinked. With more and more frequent cloudbursts and melting icecaps, traditional solutions for climate adaptations are no longer capable of coping with the large amount of water in the urban environments (ASLA, 2020).

New measures are needed, especially in our coastal communities. These cities are not just threatened by precipitation, but also by sea level rise, coastal erosion and extreme weather (Mark & Arnbjerg-Nielsen, 2012) (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020). Sea level rise will be bigger in the 21st century compared to the 20th century, and sea level rise will continue in the centuries to come. Based on the evidence from climate change impact studies (Mark & Arnbjerg-Nielsen, 2012) (IPCC, 2018), in the near future, urban coastal communities must find ways to adapt to climatic conditions very different from historical climate. At the end of the 21st century, IPCC predicts that the sea levels will have risen globally with 0,28-0,98 meter (Naturstyrelsen, 2014).

Even though sea level rise will have a huge impact on our coastal communities in the long run, we face more emergent impacts of climate changes already today. Flooding of cities in coastal areas due to storm surge and cloudbursts is a dominant risk, and it is globally one of the most frequently occurring disasters (ASLA, 2020). Climate change can make these storms stronger. More intense storms coupled with rising sea levels puts coastal districts at even greater risk of flooding in the future (Kystdirektoratet, 2018b). Population in cities affected by these floods will increase from the current 150 million people to 1 billion people by 2050 (IPCC, 2018).

Already at a sea level rise of 0.5 meters, the number of people affected is expected to be tripled compared to today (Naturstyrelsen, 2014).

The predictions for sea level rise and future storm surge affect many of the major cities in Denmark. The country’s average sea level rise during the 20th century is 2 mm per year (DMI, 2019). To handle these challenges, it is essential for the municipalities to become sustainable and resilient, and to adapt to the expected impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2018). In the process leading to their fifth assessment report (AR5), IPCC has developed several scenarios for the future climate change, and how the earth will be affected by these. Denmark has, on a national level, decided that the local governments should plan strategically based on the IPCCs scenario A1B (Klimatilpasning, 2020).

15

Introduction

DRIVERS

FIELD OF INVESTIGATION

POSSIBILITIES Strengthen the urban green and blue infrastructure

CLIMATE CHANGES Storm Surge Flooding

LANDSCAPE BASED CLIMATE ADAPTIONS

Protect the resilience

city,

enhance

Make water an attractive component to the urban fabric Create social value

Figure 1.1 - Model of the basic structure of this thesis.

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Introduction

1.3

// Aim

With this thesis I will present potentials for how the environment of the urban landscape can face challenges caused by climate changes and become more resilient in the future. This is done by a case study of the municipality Frederikssund in Denmark.

With focus on landscape-based climate adaptation in the city of Frederikssund, Kalvøen is chosen as case area. The site is chosen due to its location within the city, that the area has a low degree of built structure, and that it has been affected by storm surges in the past. The project will describe how the area can be transformed into a multifunctional part of the municipality’s future climate adaptation plan and contribute to the socioeconomic structure. Simultaneously, a development of the area could, along with adjacent Sillebro Ådal, generate a cohesive recreational area across the entire city, from coast to inland.

When the objective is to create a framework for an urban green infrastructure with both a climate adaptation plan and improved recreational value for the residents, research by design can be of great importance and relevance for every project. By unfolding the landscape and implement background theories into a real context, new knowledge can be revealed and applied into a landscape-based climate adaptation plan. With a multifunctional design, this can benefit the residents, and simultaneously contribute to a more resilient and sustainable city. Emphasis should be on improving the social environment with security, clarity, robustness, as well as increased biodiversity and low operating costs. Not only by adapting to climate challenges and provide protection against cloudbursts, storm surges and sea level rise, but also by clearly illustrating that, after a site-specific analysis and with the use of urban ecology, this transformation can contribute to a more resilient and liveable city.

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Introduction

1.4

// Methods

1.4.1 Sketching The development of sketches has been of substantial value to this thesis and is used throughout the process, not only as a tool to create the final product.

Some sketches and ideas have been disregarded, whilst others have led to new insights, knowledge, possible alternatives, and approaches. Every different step of intervention and alteration to the landscape have its origin in a sketch. Some are drawn by hand, others in the computer. When using sketching as a medium and tool, it has been possible to test and visualize thoughts, concepts, and potential scenarios.

1.4.2 The role of design in the research The aim of a design-based research approach is to develop an understanding of real-world problems and through an iterative process be able to refine the results (Amiel & Reeves, 2008). The framework supports the importance of design, combined with traditional outcome-based evaluation. It is fundamental for landscape architecture since it can address complex problems in a real context and define new design principles. In design-based research, there is a focus on the design process itself, supported by scientific arguments and observations (Kennedy-Clark, 2013). This is done

Figure 1.2 - example of sketch in the design process

in in a cyclical process, where activities are reiterated, often in phases. For every iteration, new reflections will occur, and the process leads to the development of the problem, refining possible solutions and implementation of new method approaches, as illustrated in figure XX, developed by Amiel & Reeves (2008).

In this thesis, design has had a significant role in my research. The development of different scenarios for Kalvøen, where theories and possible outcomes originate through design, is the platform for the framework in the final proposal.

Predictive research Hypotheses based upon observations and/or existing theories

Experiments designed to best hypotheses

Theory refinement based on test results

Application of theory by practioners

Specification of new hypotheses

Design-based research Analysis of practical problems by researchers and practioners in collaboration

Development of solutions informed by existing design principles and technological innovations

Iterative cycles of testing and refinement of solutions in practice

Reflection to produce “design principles” and enhance solution implementation

Refinement of problems, solutions, menthods, and design principles

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Figure 1.3 - chart comparing predictive and design-based research. Illustration is based on information from: Amiel & Reeves (2008).

Introduction

1.4.3 Literature review For a better understanding of what causes climate change, how the urban landscape is affected by it, and what relevant actions could be, a literature review on the topic has been important. In the literature review, key words have been sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, flooding, adaption, resilience, vulnerability, multifunctionality, urban biodiversity, and ecosystem services.

Topics for the literature review: - Jurisdiction relevant for the subject - Multifunctionality - Theory of transition – sociotechnical systems - Vulnerability, Adaption and Resilience - Urban Biodiversity 1.4.4 The landscape It is fundamentally important to perceive and understand a landscape before doing any decision makings. In this project, the landscape has been investigated and analysed in several different ways. A big part of the preparatory work is site visits where notations and registrations are important. Here, one can register and systematize the content of the landscape or the city e.g., physical, historical, cultural, and environmental criteria, and one can analyse these factors so that they get value.

Spatial analyses of the site have broadened the perspective of the case-area. These analyses where performed by site visits, with my body as the key instrument, by comparing historical and current maps, in computer simulations based on GIS data such as a digital terrain model and by photography and drawings.

The next step has been a background research of the site for a better understanding of the morphology, landscape formation, and geology. Research about Frederikssunds history has given important information regarding the urban structure. In that section, focus has been on the towns early urban history, from the 17th century to the beginning of the 19th century. This is the years that best reflects how Kalvøen has been formed and given the attributes of present time.

The used methods generate an overview of the present situation and indicates where the landscape is vulnerable and where and how adaption approaches might be suitable to apply.

1.4.5 Cartographic analysis To apply theoretical knowledge of SLR and storm surge, and how this will affect the landscape to a specific site, the program SCALGO Live has been used.

The programme creates possibilities for incorporating water as an active component, including surface water and SLR, and is therefore a useful tool in strategic landscape planning. By a quick screening, it gives an overview of surface waterflow, vulnerable areas and terrain conditions. The program can, at any given level, generate projected models of SLR, flooded areas, and critical points in the landscape, using the latest available GIS data, retrieved from the Agency for Data Supply and Efficency, GeoDanmark.

In SCALGO Live, I have compared digital terrain models, performed landscape alterations, and calculated how modifications to the terrain or water streams would affect the degree of inundation in the landscape.

These models have been included in different future scenarios for the case-area, which has been an important step towards the final design proposal for Kalvøen.

1.4.6 Reference cases For a better understanding of where and how different climate adaption approaches can be applied to the landscape, I have investigated other projects relevant to the topic. For a broader perspective, the chosen reference cases are not only in a danish context but located across the globe. Some of the presented projects are completed, whilst others are still in the planning process or serve as strategic documents for future planning. Based on the information, experiences and understanding of the areas, useful strategies and approaches are evaluated and the knowledge is interpreted and applied to the project area in Frederikssund.

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Introduction

1.5

// Process

kground B ac

Nov 2020

Forming objective

Site Visits

20

hic analy tograp ses Car

Lit s erat ure studie

Introduction

udies e St s a C

Sketching

on

Mar 2021

D

es

By

De

s ign

Int er gr ated vis

ig

ar nin Rese s g S c e n a rio

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21

Theoretical review

2

Theoretical review

2.1

// Theory of transition – sociotechnical systems

Sociotechnical systems are derived from sociology and technology. Technology has no power, its functions is determined by human agencies, social structures, and organisations (Geels, 2001). It is however a central element in the structure of modern society and reaches deep into, structures, and regulates it. Much of what we experience in our surroundings is influenced by technology – e.g., our industrial production, logistic processes, and urban development (Dolata, 2013).

In the transitional theory, there is a distinguishment between regimes and niches. Regimes should in this context be understood as the standard practice, and niches as where innovation is born, or where new technology is developed and tested (Fryd & Jørgensen, 2020). The regimes are in the transitional theory assumed to be resistant to long-term change, and especially new technology is perceived as disruptive and ill-suited to the established social framework. It causes confusion and challenges established guiding principles, rules, norms, and routines (Dolata, 2013). Regimes are acting on what they know, and what is seen as the safe methods and procedures (Pelling, 2010). Transitional adaptation is challenged by dominant cultural and political regimes. Progressive adaptation can be blocked by existing regimes, when a change threatens power relations (Pelling, 2010). Alternative ideas and practices for climate adaptation can also be perceived as having an uncertain outcome, even though they can hold more long-term solutions. Changes in planning and practices towards more sustainable approaches does not occur by themselves. Often, it is a gradual change over a longer time. To be successful in these transitions, government support is crucial.

Local governments should play a role as facilitators of development, not only act as managers and 24

regulators (Sehested, 2003). Input from governance networks can help policymakers to make better decisions and reduce their dependency on suggestions of their own staffs (Sørensen & Torfing, 2005). Unfortunately, local government is often suffering from being under-resourced and lacking human capital to undertake this task.

A transition towards addressing long-term climate adaptation regarding sea level rise and extreme weather can be accelerated in the near future, when current methods of protection begin to lose their effects. Also, modelled scenarios for these events that might have been disregarded, will become accepted as being the outcome when the effects of climate change become more frequent (Carpenter, 2019).

With the awareness that there will never be a flood protection system who can guarantee absolute safety, and that other possibilities must be sought, communities might see the advantage in the field of landscape-based climate adaptation. We must accept that we must live with floods and learn how to accommodate them (Kundzewicz, 2002).

2.2

// Actors and Legislation

It would be easy to presume that states or municipalities are responsible for protecting all territory within their borders. But in reality, there is a much more complex network of actors involved in this process. The danish legislation regarding coastal protection imposes requirements on the authorities, as well as on builders and private landowners. In addition, the legislation lays down more detailed rules on the financing of e.g., climate protection and coastal protection measures (Anker & Knoop, 2019).

For new projects, a change in the danish Planning Act 2018 (Erhvervsministeriet, 2018a) made it possible that it can be stipulated in a local plan, that certain remedial measures must been established as a condition for the commissioning of buildings. It

Theoretical review

is however unclear what measures can be assumed to be financed by a developer in this way (Anker & Knoop, 2019). If a municipality find it necessary for buildings to be removed, The Storm Flood Act has since 2018 (Erhvervsministeriet, 2018b) provided authority for the municipality to acquire private land, if the property has repeatedly been hit by storm surge or flood events within a short number of years, and that this is also expected to happen in the future.

There is a complexity in the jurisdictional regulation, which is related to the many stakeholders that need to be addressed in the process of urban planning and climate change adaption. Thus, there is a need for coordination of the various interests, including the involvement of relevant authorities, stakeholders and the public. There is no “one size fits all” solution, and it demands a site-specific investigation for every project. It is therefore necessary to adapt regulatory solutions to the concrete physical, societal and institutional context (Anker & Knoop, 2019). Nevertheless, it would in every case, when dealing with strategic climate adaption planning, be a good investment to incorporate citizen participation to the process of e.g., analysing expected risk, consequences and when mapping different uncertainties.

2.3

// Vulnerability, Adaption, and Resilience

2.3.1 Vulnerability Vulnerability caused by climate change is by The IPCC defined as: “the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, an unable to cope with, adverse impact of climate change” (Weissenberger & Chouinard, 2015).

From this definition vulnerability is not just physical attributes, but it also includes socio-economic parameters, and addresses both natural and

Loss of life

Direct

Damages on buildings

Human damages

Degraded infrastructure

Damages to cultural heritage

Impact on companies

Negative impact on ecosystems

Damages on crops

Intangible

Tangible

Disturbance outside of inundated Trauma

areas, e.g. transport

Mental issues

Provisional shelter for evacuated

Unemployment

Indirect

Loss in production for businesses

Figure 2.1 - Vulnerability, divided in direct/indirect and tangible/ intangible damages. Figure is inspired by Kystdirektoratet, 2018.

human systems and their insensitivity (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020). In the danish national flooding directive, Oversvømmelsesdirektivet, vulnerability is categorized into different consequences to an area, threatened by flooding. Here, the consequences are subdivided into direct, indirect, tangible, and intangible damages, se figure 2.1 (Kystdirektoratet, 2018a).

The same amount of sea level rise can result in very different outcomes depending on variations in the physical characteristics, such as topography, soil, and local conditions. To be able to decide what interventions need to be undertaken for a locality, the underlying drivers must first be examined (Carpenter, 2019).

Our societies are getting more vulnerable, the wealthier we get. With a strong economy, human activity and development increases, leading to a society more exposed to e.g., floods. As Kundzewicz (2002) describes it: “The vulnerability of societies grows as they become wealthier and more exposed – technology helps populate more “difficult” areas. Vulnerability to floods can be regarded as a function of exposure and adaptive capacity […] However, since exposure grows faster than adaptive capacity, the vulnerability increases too.”.

With the expression “difficult areas”, Kundzewicz means that the urban fabric in its search for 25

Theoretical review

new territory, spreads to more exposed areas, such as former wetlands, floodplains, and the coastline. The locations of new urban land along with factors such as elimination of natural water storage, degradation of vegetation and more sealed surface leads to more vulnerability. As the vulnerability grows, so does the adaptive capacity. But the exposure grows faster than the adaptation, due to the expansion of urban land into high-risk, or difficult, areas (Kundzewicz, 2002) (ASLA, 2020). This is also an important factor to why vulnerability is increased even if adaptive approaches are undertaken.

2.3.2 Adaption To understand how a city can become more resilient to challenges caused by climate change, its necessary to understand what adaption is. IPCC defines adaption as: “the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects” (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020).

Even though there is a strong link between the two expressions, resilience and adaption are not synonymous (Pelling, 2010). Adaptation at one location can even undermine resilience at another location, or even over a larger landscape. This can occur if the focus of adaption to climate change is handled locally, or is aimed towards specific shocks, and therefor distracts attention from other vulnerable areas or issues in need of attention (Walker, et al., 2006).

Planning for sea level rise and storm surges, and to take actions for adaptation will nevertheless likely help to increase resiliency and reduce risks (Carpenter, 2019).

As cities of today face more and more environmental issues such as storm surges, the urban fabric needs to be designed so it can adapt to the future. In this context, adaption can be described as the ability for a system to cope with adverse impacts. Adaptation is not static, but an ongoing process, and it de26

pends on many factors (Weissenberger & Chouinard, 2015). Some of the more important to mention is: - Economy - Technical and scientific resources - Social and political capital - Legislation - Information, education, and awareness There are different strategies for adaption (Weissenberger & Chouinard, 2015)(Bonnet & Birchall, 2020): -

-

-

-

Protection e.g., construction of seawalls.

Can be suitable for landscapes threatened by storm surge and flooding.

Accommodation e.g., relocation of both citizens and assets.

Retreat create a buffer zone between coastal areas threatened by climate change and development.

Precaution e.g., ecosystem-based efforts like restoration of wetlands.

Historically, the solution for those who cannot move to higher, and safer, ground have often been in the form of protection - to build walls, raise homes on stilts, or to simply rebuild what is damaged or ruined when a storm surge has passed. In the long run, after repeated storm activities and floods, this have been very costly. Flood walls are often expensive to build, they can be obstructive, and they can fail to protect the objects they are constructed to secure (ASLA, 2020).

Another way to be precautious, besides restoration, is to prepare in advance of future extreme weather by avoid building development in vulnerable locations (Beatley, 2018).

Theoretical review

When adapting to climate change, one primary goal in every investment should be to seek multifunctionality, such as recreational value, habitat restoration, and enhanced connectivity to the water. Hence, the solutions should be much more than just achieve flood mitigation with levees e.g., a sea-wall (Beatley, 2018). Also, to receive the best results, adaption should be used in combination with mitigation, as a damage-reducing strategy (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020).

Here, mitigation stands for: “a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gasses” (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020, p. 875) 2.3.3 Resilience Resilience goes further than the notion of adaption (Weissenberger & Chouinard, 2015) and could be seen as the fourth pillar of sustainability (Ahern 2013). Resilience is a system’s ability to regain or rebound to a stationary state after a disturbance (Weissenberger & Chouinard, 2015). The more resilient a system, the less vulnerable it becomes (Pelling, 2010) and the larger the disturbance it can absorb without shifting into an alternate regime (Walker, et al., 2006).

A city needs to have capacity to recover from disturbance of climate change, without changing the fundamental state, i.e., adaptive strategies like biodiversity, connectivity, multifunctionality or redundancy (Ahern 2013). For this to occur, there is an importance of biodiversity and ecological multifunctionality in the built structure. Due to the root systems, vegetation enhances infiltration with reduced sealed surfaces and improved soil structure. Ponds and watersheds will contribute to retention, and natural river systems will increase storage and biodiversity with its floodplains, polders and an extended riverine (Kundzewicz, 2002).

2.4

// Structural and Non-structural approaches to adaption

In this section, both structural (hard) and non-structural (soft) adaption methods are described.

They have in common their relevancy for vulnerable communities, threatened by sea level rise, storm surge and extreme weather.

2.4.1 Structural adaptions Traditional planning often relies on the use of structural approaches when working with climate change adaption (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020). These structural adaptions have a long history in urban planning and management, where the regime claims that engineered hard structures creates a physical, secure, and robust response to climate impacts. The structural adaptions are also perceived as being easy to understand and implement (Sovacool, 2011). An often-seen misconception is, that since a levee or a dam is an expensive investment, it must withstand floods better than other measures (Kundzewicz, 2002). What can be forgotten in the decision-making is the hard adaptions incapacity to be resilient when it comes to increased sea level rise and storm surge, where floods reach higher than the constructions are dimensioned for. As a response, many communities with older constructions are now facing the question whether they should upgrade their hard adaptions, or if the challenges can be addressed by other means (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020).

An example of hard engineered infrastructure challenged by climate change conditions is the conventional urban sewer system. This structure is already pushed beyond its limits by more intensive rain events. A common solution to this issue, is to upgrade the sewers and increase the sewers capacity with bigger pipes – a hard adaption. This approach is ill suited for the future of adaption, since it is both costly, does not lead to any climate change resilience and is poorly flexible (Jensen, Backhaus, & Fryd).

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Theoretical review

2.4.2 Non-structural adaptions On the other hand, non-structural adaptions generate a greater form of flexibility. Cities are increasingly beginning to understand the benefits of maintaining and enhancing natural systems as a respond to climate change (Beatley, 2018). Non-structural adaptions can include many measures, such as legislation, land use management, forecast warning systems and flood risk assessment. It can also involve natural infrastructure and capital such as marine ecosystems and forests (Sovacool, 2011). Even some structural adaptions can be regarded as soft, if they are done in a small scale. Examples of this could be terrain alteration with elevation as flood protection, enhanced water storage and detention, or by diverting and/or restoring a riverine to a more natural state in the landscape (Kundzewicz, 2002).

For urban planning, a valuable soft adaption approach is to generate computer models and simulations, based on latest data and technology. This method can generate new understanding and information since simulations of potential events and measures can be directly illustrated. This could lead to an improved ability to respond to alterations in climate change projections (Sovacool, 2011).

2.5

// Ecosystem-based approach

Urban biodiversity could be damaged by, or benefit from, the implementation of different adaption approaches. Therefore, conflicts and synergies between city climate adaptation and nature conservation should be mapped and measured in advance of these kind of projects (Butt, et al., 2018). A soft approach to adaption, besides the non-structural, is the ecosystem-based. By embracing a range of ecosystem services, it contributes to resilience, creating a buffer against the impact of climate change and its consequences (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020). The ecosystem-based approach can supplement natural resources on a specific site, through a focus on 28

landscape morphology or even specific species. By including biodiversity conservation in their climate change adaption programs, cities can sustain valuable co-benefits, without reducing the effect of their investments (Butt, et al., 2018). On the contrary, natural ecosystems hold valuable potential to contribute to resilience. When the objective is to reduce the impacts of flooding, the ecosystem-based approach with e.g., enhanced, or new, wetlands, a robust green infrastructure, or naturalized coastlines can increase the adaptive capacity and resilience (Bonnet & Birchall, 2020) and thus reduce the effects of intense storm events, flooding and sea level rise.

For the management of biodiversity to be efficient, future changes to the environmental conditions and land use should be investigated and taken into consideration. A change in land use, such as the implementation of a structural adaption, will have a direct degradational impact on habitats (Titeux, et al., 2016).

If a city must use hard adaptions, such as a seawall, as a response to threats driven by climate change, it should be prioritized to also minimize the impacts these interventions can generate on existing biodiversity. For some large-scale projects, landscape alterations can even have a larger effect on biodiversity than the impacts of climate change (Titeux, et al., 2016), (Butt, et al., 2018).

An impact reduction could for example be done by assessing the vulnerability of future species, extinction risks and a re-introduction of species after a project is completed. Another measure is to be precautious and use spatial arrangements to reduce damage on habitats and/or ecosystems.

As mentioned before, in section 4.1.; Sociotechnical transitions, page 22, soft adaption methods, including the ecosystem-based approach, are often considered to be an investment with an unsure outcome. For them to be more accepted, information and knowledge are key instruments. If important aspects are neglected due to lack of knowledge, decisions for development can risk being one-sided, relying on existing and commonly used technology and methods (Pelling, 2010).

Theoretical review

2.6

// Multifunctional Landscapes

In urban planning, the aim is often to reach an efficient use of the scarce land available. The expression “a multifunctional landscape” covers many layers, i.e., different types of land-use, land-cover, and natural ecological functions. A landscape may be considered as multifunctional when a combination of functions is implemented into the same spatial unit. Here, there is a distinction between time and scale.

Brandt & Vejre (2004) differentiate between three types of multifunctionality: (1) Spatial combinations of separate land units (spatial segregation), (2) different functions devoted to the same land unit, but separated in time (time segregation) and (3) integration of different functions in the same unit of land at the same time (spatial integration).

The third type, spatial integration, is what can be seen as a true multifunctionality, with a total integration of time and scale. For a transformation towards a sustainable development, it can be valuable to implement the strategy of a total integration of functions to any given project. By considering both time and scale in the spatial planning process, the outcome can simultaneously be beneficial for both social, environmental, and economic development (Selman, 2009).

To illustrate this, a well-planned landscape can be described as possessing the qualities of many ecosystem services at once. The biophysical structure provides provisioning services such as raw material from woodland and crops. The underlying structure of vegetation is a regulating service, where root systems and microorganisms have positive effects on soils physical structure - securing water infiltration and reducing the damage caused by flooding. The green infrastructure gives opportunities for recreation and provides aesthetic value and health benefits (Haines-Young & Potschin, 2010), (Grahn & Stigsdotter, 2010).

29

The site

3

The site

3.1

// Landscape

Frederikssund municipality is located in the north part of Seeland in Denmark and has the same landscape characteristics as this rest of the region.

The landscape is undulated with soft slopes and small hills, where the soil is dominated by moraine (Krüger, 2018). Frederikssund is a pronounced fjord-municipality, with a coastline of almost 141km, both towards Roskilde Fjord and Isefjord.

Figure 3.1 Top: - Land rise in Denmark since the Littorina Ocean. All figures in meters. Frederikssund is marked with orange, situated where the land has risen in between 3.5 and 4.5 meter.

Left bottom: Map of the morphology in Frederikssunds Kommune, with the landscape structures formed during the last ice-age.

Right bottom: The main soils in Frederikssund, where the matrix is moraine sand. Kalvøen is illustrated in purple - saltwater clay, an indication that the area used to be old sea bottom.

32

The landscape structure was formed during the last ice-age (Krüger, 2018), whilst the coast, fjords and rivers obtained its structure after the ice withdrew (Aagaard & Møller, 2018) (Gravesen, 2018). The melting ice cap created The Littorina Ocean, which flooded the landscape. The ocean created a new coastline, where former lowland became fjords and bays. Since then, the landmass in today’s Frederikssund municipality has emerged 3.5-4.5 meters. Traces from the Littorina Ocean can be seen in present time where for example meadows and bogs is a result of old bays and inlets (Krüger, 2018).

The coast is varied, with high cliffs, stony beaches, and shallow beach meadows. In front of the raised coastal cliffs lies flat, wave-eroded, platforms, where the sea depth is around 2 meters. The foreland can be flooded when northwest storms raise the water level in the fjords (Aagaard & Møller, 2018). The municipality is therefore vulnerable to both sea level rise, storm surges and cloudbursts. These factors can cause flooding of low located areas along both the coast and the streams (Frederikssund Kommune, 2014).

The site

3.2

// Urbanity

The first settlements in Frederikssund were built in the mid-17th century (Mikkelsen, 2018b), and the towns history is strongly intertwined to the ferry site at Roskilde Fjord. This was an important connection between north Seeland to Horns Herred, a peninsula in between Isefjord and Roskilde Fjord.

The first real urban planning began in the middle of the 19th century. At this time, Frederikssund established e.g., a town square with city hall, postal office, hospital, schools and constructed a port for sending and receiving important goods (Christoffersen, 1986). The port was built at the inlet between the island Kalvøen and the mainland and replaced the old ship bridge from 1621. The port has been expanded several times since, see figure XX. Due to loss of many industries in the late 20th century, the municipality decided to close the port in 1994. Today, the area is an integrated part of Frederikssunds urban structure, i.e., with a new housing area, supermarket, and a restaurant, see figure 3.3

TOP: Figure 3.2 The ferry-connection between Frederikssund and Hornsherred in 1854.

CENTRE: Figure 3.3 View of the area that used to be the port in Frederikssund, seen from the corner of Bruhnsvej and Færgevej.

BOTTOM: Figure 3.4 The development of Frederikssunds port, established in 1843, and enhanced several times. Today, the port is closed, and the area is integrated in the urban structure, with modern dwellings, stores, and restaurants.

1843

1859

1870

1900

33

The site

The grey infrastructure in the region was greatly improved with the construction of a ponton bridge, replacing the old ferry route between Frederikssund and Hornsherred. The bridge opened in 1868 and was in use until 1935 when Kronprins Frederiks Bro opened.

This bridge is still in use, even though it is considered to be under dimensioned for the large amount of traffic crossing it (Folketinget, 2014). In 1879, the Frederikssund line between Frederiksberg and Frederikssund opened. From 1911 the trainline was connected all the way to Copenhagen. The railway contributed to the industrialization of Frederikssund (Mikkelsen, 2018a). At the end of the 19th century, a few large companies were established, such as the iron foundry, the machine factory in 1884 and the pig slaughterhouse in 1894 (Christoffersen, 1986).

Historically, the population began to increase rapidly when Frederikssund received its status as a market town in 1809. These privileges became a huge impact on both economic and urban growth in the small community (Christoffersen, 1986). With the entry of new industries in the middle of the 20th century (Mikkelsen, 2018b), the population grew from 5492 in 1950 to 11272 people in 1970 (Danmarks Statistik, 2020), see figure 3.5.

The enforced status of Frederikssund, both as a market town and due to its good connections on both land and sea, led to that adjacent Udesundby was completely incorporated in Frederikssunds urban structure at the end of the 19th century (Mikkelsen, 2018b).

Today, Frederikssund is the main town in Frederikssund Kommune, with a population of 16337 of the municipality’s 45223 (Danmarks Statistik, 2020). It is a part of Region Hovedstaden, and has good connections and commuting access to Copenhagen, both by car and by train. In 1989, Frederikssund became included in the S-train network, and the station was moved from the port to its current location. The latest improvement was in 2002, when the existing single-track lane was expanded with an additional lane (Mikkelsen, 2018b).

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Figure 3.5 - graph showing population growth in Frederikssund in the last two centuries. Data received from Danmarks Statistik.

3.3

// Kalvøen and mainland is connected

Until late 19th century, Kalvøen, as its danish name reveals, was an island, located a short distance from Frederikssund in Roskilde Fjord. Kalvøen was used for grazing and the cattle was brought to the island at low tide. In the large area between the island and mainland, called Bløden, see figure 3.7, all household wastewater from Frederikssund was discharged (Christoffersen, 1986).

With its good location, close to the town centre, local landowners saw an opportunity to drain the area, and take use of the extra land. This could also solve the issue with wastewater stench, spreading form Bløden to the rest of Frederikssund. For these reasons, the municipality approved the ideas, and the construction of two dams began (Christoffersen, 1986). Bløden became drained in the late 19th century and is ever since connecting Kalvøen to the rest of Frederikssund as one large cohesive area. Today, the name Kalvøen is used both for the elevated island, and for the former fjord area Bløden. In the first years after the landlock, Kalvøen, was used as a private grazing area. It was taken over in 1896 by a company, which converted the former grazing area into a recreational area (Mikkelsen, 2018b).

Today, Kalvøen is still used for recreational purpose, with sport facilities, an open-air scene, and recreational green areas.

The site

3.4

// Lowland

Being an area consisting of old sea bottom, partially with terrain beneath sea level, has caused problems for Kalvøen. The dike constructed in the 19th century has many times been challenged by storm surges caused by storms originated in the North Sea. As seen in figure 3.6, in 1914, the protection dam could not withstand the flood, and in 1921, another storm caused severe damage to the dike. The most recent storm that caused inundation in Frederikssund was Bodil in 2013, see page 52 (Kystdirektoratet, 2018b).

Figure 3.6 During a storm in 1914, the southern dike could not hold the fjord water out of Bløden. In the picture, the low area of Kalvøen is to the right, and Roskilde Fjord is to the left.

By: Johannes Hansen, October 1st, 1914.

This photo is published with the permission of Frederikssund Lokalhistoriske Arkiver.

Figure 3.7 Map from 1850, before the dam was constructed, and Bløden still was a part of Roskilde Fjord.

Today’s coastal line is marked with a red line in the map, and the dikes from 19th century is marked with orange.

NEXT SPREAD: Figure 3.8 - The trajectory shows how Kalvøen has developed through history, from being a part of the fjord, to what the area can offer today of recreational activities. All photos, except nr.9 (author), are published with the permission of Frederikssunds Lokalhistoriske Arkiver Illustrations: 1: The old mill on Kalvøen, which was used to pump water out of the area.

2: Large grazers in the drained area called Bløden. This was the areas primary function until 1897.

3: The southern dike could not withstand the pressure of a storm surge in 1921. In the picture water is just about to enter the area (to the right) 4: 1922 - reparation work of the damaged dich to withstand new storms.

5: The first football stadium opened.

6: The vikings entered the area, when the first viking days where held. The Viking Village is today one of the main attractions of Kalvøen.

7 & 8: Frederikssundshallen was built and opened in 1968.

9: Today the area is the municipality’s centre for football and the landscape is dominated by 11 football fields

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The site

3.5

// Kalvøen - a trajectory

1850

1875

1900

2

1

36

1925

4 3

The site

1950

1975

2000

2025

9

7 6

5

8

37

the site

3.6

// Frederikssunds relation to climate adaptation

Frederikssund municipality is already exposed to extreme weather phenomena. The municipality has a long coastline out to Roskilde Fjord and Isefjord, see figure 3.9, and several large streams. The municipality is therefore vulnerable to both sea level rise, storm surges and cloudbursts, which can cause flooding of depressed areas along both the coast and the streams.

The municipality’s own climate adaptation plan tends to act on problems caused by storm surge with engineered solutions such as dikes, floodgates, and expanded capacity in the sewer systems (Frederikssund Kommune, 2014). These approaches to adaptions can be traced back all the way to when the dikes around Bløden was constructed in the 19th century.

One of the more extreme climate adaption plans is a proposal from adjacent Roskilde municipality – who suggests a regional plan for Roskilde Fjord and Isefjorden (Roskilde Kommune, 2014). The plan describes three different suggestions, all based on large flood gates, where the difference is their location and how much of the fjords they should protect, see figure 3.10. The principles are similar to what can be seen in other places around the world, for example in the Thames, where a gate is protecting London from floods. As described in section 2.5, this kind of largescale landscape interventions could have a huge impact on biodiversity and ecology in the fjords.

In Frederikssund municipality’s current plan, the city of Frederikssund is the highest ranked focus area for protection and climate adaptation. Besides this security plan, other measures have been done to secure the city. In 2013, the recreational park Sillebro Ådal was opened. The projects objective was to restore nature including meandering of Sillebro å, create a recreative area for the citizens, and for the area to secure Frederikssund from future flooding caused by precipitation and elevated water levels in the riverine. At the time, the project was the largest nature- and climate adaptation project in Denmark (EVA, 2017).

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Roskilde fjord

Isefjord

Figure 3.9 - Frederikssunds municipality, with a long coastline towards both Roskilde- and Isefjord.

Borders marked with orange. 1:500.000

Figure 3.10 - Overview of the three different locations for a large flood gate to protect the municipalities in Roskilde Fjord. The proposal is developed by Roskilde Municipality, and has not yet left the drawing table.

The site

3.7

// Storm surge and flooding

A storm surge causing flooding is produced when sea water is pushed towards the shore by wind.

For Roskilde Fjord, this occurs when the sea level is high in Kattegat due to westerly storms in the North Sea (Kystdirektoratet, 2018b).

During westerly storms in the North Sea, water is gradually forced into Skagerrak and Kattegat. If then the storm passes to the east, north of Denmark, northern winds on the back of the low pressure strengthens the high tide in Kattegat, see figure 3.11.

Another factor that contributes to the development of high sea levels in the Kattegat is that the

straits Little Belt, Great Belt and Øresund are relatively narrow. They act as bottlenecks in relation to the water flow and contribute to the water level being high in Kattegat.

It is high sea water levels in Kattegat that are the prerequisite for high water levels in e.g., Roskilde Fjord and Isefjorden. If the filling of Roskilde Fjord from Kattegat is accompanied by strong north winds, the water level in the fjord can be very high, as was the case during storm Bodil in December 2013 (Kystdirektoratet, n.d.).

Figure 3.11 - How a storm surge is created by westerly storms in the North Sea, pressing water into Kattegatt an further into Roskilde Fjord.

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4

Unfolding the landscape

Unfolding the landscape

// Introduction As described in chapter 3, a large part of Kalvøen is old sea bottom that has been drained in the 19th century. This means that the area partially is depressed and lies beneath normal sea level. The dikes that serve as protection against flooding are old, and Kalvøen, together with the city centre has experienced flooding several times over the years. Kalvøen is important for Frederikssund and its population, as the large green area offers citizens a wide spectrum of both outdoor as well as indoors recreational activities.

The area is located towards the fjord, connected to Sillebro Ådal with the city centre and railway station in between. Sillebro å is running across the area, having its estuary to the Roskilde fjord in Kalvøen. Today, Kalvøen is used for recreational purpose, with sport arrangements, an open-air scene, and a variation of large green areas.

© Styrelsen for Dataforsyning og Effektivisering

Figure 4.1 - The case area of this study, Kalvøen, is marked with an orange border.

41

Discovering Kalvøen

Figure 4.2 - vegetation and small paths in the southern part of Kalvøen, adjacent to Sillebro Å.

Unfolding the landscape

4.1

// Relations and Access

OLD PORT CITY CENTRE

SILLEBRO ÅDAL TRAIN STATION

P Acess point ROSKILDE FJORD

Movement Restricted connectivity Public access

MARINA

HOUSING AREA

Kalvøen is in walking distance from both the city centre, many dwellings, and the train station in Frederikssund. One main road is used to access the area by car and a large parking lot is located in the centre of the area. When visiting the area by foot, it is possible to enter Kalvøen from many directions. A small bridge over Sillebro Å connects the detached

housing area south of the area, and from the train station, a path along the stream leads all the way down to the marina, south of the case-area.

A large part of Kalvøen is dedicated to football, with many football-fields. This part is not accessible for other user groups, and the connectivity in this area is very week.

45

ACCESS

HIGHER TERRAIN RESTAURANT

BELOW SEA LEVEL MONOCULTURE HIGHER TERRAIN

FOOTBALL FIELDS STADIUM

TENNIS COURTS

DIVERSE VEGETATION

OLD ISLAND

PATH SYSTEM

PETANQUE

FREDERIKSSUNDSVIKING HALLEN

VILLAGE

PATH SYSTEM

MARINA S

IL

LE

O BR

Å

ACCESS

Unfolding the landscape

4.2. // Registration

47

Unfolding the landscape

4.3

// Green infrastructure

Even though a large portion of the landscape is dedicated to sport activities, such as football, see figure 4.3, Kalvøen still holds potential of being a hotspot for biodiversity. Many native species thrive in the area closest to Sillebro Å, and in the higher terrain on Kalveø, it is possible to experience a

broad variation of fully grown large woody plants.

As figure 4.4 illustrates, Kalvøen is, with its central location, an important part of a corridor in the green infrastructure, which can connect inland rural landscapes to Roskilde Fjord across Frederikssunds city centre.

Figure 4.3 - Football fields at Frederikssund stadium. The level of biodiversity is very low and can almost be considered a grass desert.

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Unfolding the landscape

Figure 4.4. - Diagrammatic illustration of the green corridor through Frederikssund, from rural landscapes to Roskilde Fjord.

Sillebro Ådal

Rural landscape

City centre

Kalvøen Roskilde fjord

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Unfolding the landscape

4.4

// Expansion of the urban fabric

Figure 4.5 - Todays built structure on an underlaying map from 1850.

1:10.000

The modern urban fabric of Frederikssund has over the years expanded into the area of Kalvøen. The illustration above, figure 4.5, shows, in orange, todays buildings and coastline, on top of a map from 1850. This clearly illustrated that a part of today’s city centre, as well as the large 50

shopping centre Sillebroen and Frederikssund stadium is located in the drained area, that used to be old sea bottom. Due to these circumstances, the built structure in Frederikssund is extra vulnerable against SLR and flooding caused by storm surge.

Unfolding the landscape

4.5

// Cartographic analysis and modelling through SCALGO Live

When analysing the area, and how SLR, storm surges and cloudbursts will affect the landscape, SCALGO Live has been a key instrument in the research. SCALGO Live is a web based interactive map, that uses the latest data from the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency, GeoDanmark. As SCALGO describes it on their website: “The surface of the Earth is being mapped in high resolution using sensors and satellites. This has the potential to transform everything from how we plan our cities to how we protect the environment and chart the oceans. We are creating the digital tools and custom analyses to realize this potential”.

By using the altitude model delivered by the program, it has been possible to map, analyse, and understand flood risks, estimate flooded areas at a given water table, and to identify critical low points in the landscape. The program also offers tools to alter the terrain, which can be used to investigate the effects of proposed interventions to the landscape.

For Kalvøen, and the city of Frederikssund, several critical points has been detected through SCALGO Live. The main concern is that a water table 1.66 meters above normal would cause severe flooding of the central parts of the city, see section 4.7 - Critical points and levels, p. 51.

Figure 4.6 - From a basic sketch (left) to a computer-generated model in SCALGO Live (right). The program makes it possible to test ideas in a real-world context. In the illustrated example, the concept is to create a riverine that follows the surface water runoff flow in the area.

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Unfolding the landscape 4.6. // Terrain

OLD ISLAND SEA BOTTOM

STREAM

DIKE

N 1:5000

52

Unfolding the landscape 4.7

e

// Critical points and levels

a

d

c b

N 1:5000

One of the most critical points is found in the most northern part of the case-area (a). If the water levels reach >1.65 meter due to a storm surge, it would result in inundation of the entire city centre.

The old dike is constructed to withstand a sea level rise of 2.17 meter (b). But the area of Kalvøen is vulnerable and would be flooded from other directions at even lower levels. At high tide, the water levels in the estuary of Sillebro Å would break the floodplains already at >0.59 meter above normal

(c) and threaten to inundate the detached housing district south of Kalvøen. By the level 1.3 meter, the houses in this area will be flooded (d). If the levels reach above 1.31 meter, water would begin to reach higher up in the riverine of Sillebro Å, and affect the surroundings. By the level 1.71, floodwater has reached the tipping point for protection in between the train station and the city centre (e).

The newly built shopping centre Sillebroen would be flooded.

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Unfolding the landscape

4.8

Arrival of a storm

The most recent storm that caused extreme flooding in Roskilde Fjord was Bodil in December 2013. Due to its origin, pathway, and its arrival from the Nordic Sea, Roskilde Fjord experienced rising water table, just as described in figure 3.10, p.37.

During this storm, the whole area of Roskilde Fjord experienced maximum storm surges of 2.06 meters above normal in the city of Roskilde (Kystdirektoratet, 2018b). This caused extensive flooding in many urban areas along the fjord, and for Frederiks-

sund, the surge elevation reached 2.0 meters. Since a crucial tipping point for the city is at 1.65 meter above normal, major parts of the city’s central districts were flooded. The illustrations below show a time lapse over the situation in Frederikssund during the storm, where the maximum levels were reached on Friday 6th of December at 23.00, as illustrated in the map on the next page. All data for this storm event is retrieved from SCALGO Live.

During the storm Bodil 2013, large areas in Frederikssund was flooded, with maximum levels at 2.00 meters above normal. Both the city centre and Kalvøen was affected by this event.

All data is retrieved from SCALGO Live.

Thursday 17.00 54

Friday 06.00

Friday 11.00

Friday 23.00

Reference cases

5

Reference cases

// Introduction

In this chapter, different projects, both danish and international, will be presented. The projects all have that in common that their objective is adaption to climate change, even though they face different challenges and approaches. With this study of other areas and projects, the aim is to broaden the perspective of how adaption to climate change can be obtained under different conditions.

Some of the projects are completed whilst others serve as strategic documents for their specific areas, see list below. For the ones that are completed, it has been possible to study the positive and negative impact the approaches have generated on the landscape.

Completed projects: - Sønæs - Bishan Ang Mo Kio Park Under construction: - Jyllinge Nordmark Strategic documents: - Buzzard Point - Vejle Fjordby The case areas are chosen due to their project’s objective, where they all have adaption to flooding caused by climate change in focus. Also, their locality, being coastal communities have been an important factor. The study is relevant for the understanding of what kind of adaption approaches that can be suitable in the case-area in Frederikssund.

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Reference cases

5.1. // Multifunctional climate protection

SØnæs

Key words Rainwater management Cloudbursts Recreational value

Inundation Multifunctionality Water purification

5.1.1. Where?

Viborg, Denmark, see figure 5.1.

Completed in 2015 Area: 10 ha 5.1.2. What?

With this project, an area adjecent to Søndersø in Viborg, where there used to be sport activities has been transformed into an innovative, recreational park.

The project is described as “Climate protection in creative packaging” (Realdania, n.d.). The total area of the new park is ca. 10 ha, and multifunctionality has been a key driver throughout the project (Carlberg & Christensen, 2015).

Figure 5.1 - Viborgs location in the central parts of Jutland, Denmark.

Figure 5.2. Photos from SØnæs in Viborg after the transformation. The old grass area is altered into to a multifunctional park, including many activities where water is incorporated.

All photos are published with the permission of Carsten Ingemann. ©Carsten Ingemann, 2021.

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5.1.3. Why? The municipality of Viborg had two important demands that needed to be fulfilled – purification of rainwater in treatment ponds and retention of stormwater after cloudbursts. The need for a treatment pond at SØnæs has arisen since the city of Viborg is being sewered separately (Realdania, n.d.). The effect of this separation is that rainwater has been disconnected from the system and must be purified for i.e., phosphorus and nitrogen before it is discharged into the nearby Søndersø.

5.2.4. How? The park is designed as a recreational water landscape which holds a technical solution for handling and purifying precipitation from adjacent urban areas.

The area’s many users get the opportunity to experience a varied water landscape, where you can see and experience the handling and purification of the rainwater in a playful way. By this, Sønæs is described as a place with a potential to bring large parts of the city’s population together - both physically and socially. Simultaneously, the solution significantly reduces the risk of flooding of GL. Århusvej and Lyngvej during cloudburst (Carlberg & Christensen, 2015).

Reference cases

5.2. // Urban River Park

Bishan Ang Mo Kio Park

Key words River restoration Recreation Liveability

Biodiversity Water purification Urban park

5.2.1. Where?

Singapore, see figure 5.3.

Completed in 2012 Area: 63 ha

Figure 5.3 - Map illustrating Singapore’s location in South Eastern Asia.

Figure 5.4 - Bishan Ang Mo Kio Park in central Singapore. ©2021 Google. Maxar Technologies

Figure 5.5 - Before the restoration project, Kallang River was a straight concrete channel within the park, shielded with fences towards both sides.

5.2.2. What?

The Bishan Park project is part of a national wide program in Singapore – the Active, Beautiful, Clean Waters Programme. The program is a long-term initiative with the aim to transform water bodies from acting as drainage and water supply into improved community space and recreational areas. For the specific project, a straight concrete drainage channel has been restored into a meandering, more natural river in central Singapore, see figure 5.4.

5.2.3. Why? Singapore is one of the most densely populated places in the world, and the need of clean water supplies is emergent. The project addressed Singapore’s need of a reliable water supply, better water quality and flood management, while also creating enhanced liveable space for citizens and species (Beyer & Anderson, 2020).

5.2.4. How? Before the restoration project began, Kallang River acted as a straight barrier with its concrete channel between the park and the rest of the city, see figure 5.5 (ASLA, 2016) (Beyer & Anderson, 2020). With the interventions, the Kallang River has gone from 2.7 km to 3.2 km long, now running through the new park, with a thriving riverine ecology. Biodiversity in the park has increased by 30% (ASLA, 2016), even though no active interventions have been made to make this happen. It is a result of the naturalized river itself, which has created a great variety of micro-habitats for many species to thrive in (Beyer & Anderson, 2020).

59

Reference cases

5.3. // Sea wall as storm surge protection

Jyllinge Nordmark

Key words Flooding Cloudbursts Storm surge

Inundation Sea wall Hard adaptions

5.3.1. Where?

Jyllinge Nordmark is a housing area, located in the northernmost part of Roskilde Municipality on Seeland in Denmark, se figure 5.6.

5.3.2. What?

This is an ongoing project, see figure 5.7, where the basic idea is a structural approach in the form of a high seawall will be constructed to protect a detached housing district from flooding.

Figure 5.6 - Jyllinge Nordmarks location, adjacent to Roskilde, and next to Roskilde Fjord.

CENTRE: Figure 5.7 - The project is initialised, and the seawall is about to be constructed.

BOTTOM: Figure 5.8 - Section of how the new levee will be located in between the fjord and the detached housing district.

60

5.3.3. Why? The area has repeatedly been exposed to massive floods. Areas along the river Værebro Å and around Råmosegrøften have been especially vulnerable and exposed to flooding in the past. In Jyllinge Nordmark, inundation occurs as a result of a number of conditions. Especially a combination of cloudburst and storm surge results in a very high risk of flooding (Roskilde Kommune, 2020).

5.3.4. How? As a response, a flood protection project was initiated by Roskilde municipality along with residents of Jyllinge Nordmark. In the project, hard adaptions are the bearing elements. The residential area is planned to be protected by digs, a sluice construction, and a pumping station at the estuary of Værebro Å in Roskilde fjord (MENA Report, 2018). The large levee towards Roskilde fjord, see illustration 5.8, stretches over 700 meters along the coast with the highest top 2.4 meters above sea level, creating an extensive transformation to the landscape.

Reference cases

5.4. // Climate Adaptation Concepts

Buzzard Point New York

Philadelphia

Key words Master plan Adaption strategies Urban development

Flooding Living shoreline Resilience

5.4.1. Where?

Buzzard Point, Washington D.C., USA Design/Development: 2017-18 Area: 75 ha

Bal�more Washington

Figure 5.9 - Map illustrating Buzzard Points location in Washington DC, on the east coast of the United States.

The city is connected to the Atlantic Ocean by the Potomac River.

BOTTOM: Figure 5.10 - Sections of the different adaption concepts (A-D) presented in the strategy document.

Illustrations created with inspiration from Ramboll A/S, 2019

5.4.2. What?

Buzzard Point is a new urban area in Southwest Washington D.C, adjacent to the Potomac River, see figure 5.9. The plan is a strategic document where possible adaption strategies for the area of Buzzard Point is investigated and presented.

5.4.3. Why? According to the Climate DC Flooding Plan the district is one of the most vulnerable to climate change impacts in the city (DOEE) and the area is located within estimated high flood risk zones.

Flooding risks in the area: - Riverine from the Potomac River watershed - Coastal from the Chesapeake Bay - Interior or inland flooding from cloudbursts “The purpose of the project is to determine the most feasible level of protection for Buzzard Point and to seamlessly integrate a resilience layer and strategy into the existing plans, both for riverine and cloudburst flooding.”

(Ramboll A/S, 2019) 5.4.4. How? The development for the area includes strategies and concepts, se figure 5.10, for a living shoreline, protection measures, terrain alternation and stormwater retention and conveyance (Ramboll A/S, 2019).

Concept A: Seawall

Concept C: Combined flood protection measures

Concept B: Green flood protection landscape

Concept D: Urban flood protection landscape

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Reference cases

5.5. // Adapting strategies for Sea Level Rise in the urban fabric

Vejle Fjordby 5.5.1. Where?

Vejle Fjordby is an upcoming plan for Vejle, one of the larger cities in the eastern part of Jutland, Denmark, see figure 5.11. The district is located in the part of the town that is most vulnerable against storm surge and sea level rise, an area that historically used to be the city’s industrial port.

Key words Resilience Liveability Adaption Long term strategic planning Open ended Storm surge

TOP: Figure 5.11 – Vejle’s location in Jutland, Denmark.

CENTRE: Figure 5.12 - Phase 1 (to the left) and phase 2 (to the right) in the strategic document of Fjordbyen. Illustrations published with the permission from Teknik & Miljø, Vejle Kommune.

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5.5.2. What?

Fjordbyen – The Fjord Village – is a strategic document and part of a larger plan for the city of Vejle (Vejle Kommune, 2019). Fjordbyen is not yet brought into real life but is politically approved in Vejle Municipality. The aim with the strategy is to help reduce the risk of storm surge from the fjord causing flooding in the existing city centre. It is also a strategy for the long-term urban development in” Fjordbyen” as a resilient and sustainable urban area adjacent to Vejle Fjord. In the plan, its highlighted that the strategy should “grow with the city”, meaning that it is an adaptive, and open ended, strategy for Vejle.

5.5.3. Why? Vejle is one of the danish cities that has been pointed out to be most vulnerable when it comes to climate change, (Kystdirektoratet, 2019), with emphasis on flooding due to sea level rise. The city is extra threatened by the combination of higher frequency of storms and cloudbursts.

5.5.4. How? The strategy covers three phases, where phase 1 and 2 is illustrated in figure 5.12: Phase 1 – “Here and now”

adaption to 2 meters in 2025 Phase 2 – “Protection in the medium-term timeframe”

adaptation to 2,5 / 3 meters in 2050 Phase 3 – “Long term protection”

adaption to >3 meters in 2070 For every phase, suggested adaption approaches needed to achieve the objective, is unfolded, and illustrated, see figure 5.12.

Reference cases

// Summary of reference cases

Overall, the case studies have brought important learning regarding how different adaption approaches can be implemented, depending on local conditions and challenges. Where a method can become a success in one area, it could fall short at another location (Sovacool, 2011). This underlines the great importance of a thorough site-specific study, to understand best practice in the strategic framework for every case. For example, a new riverine, like the one in Singapore, would be of little benefits in Buzzard Point, where the biggest challenge is to avoid flooding in the urban development next to the existing river. And, whilst Sønæs in Viborg might have a different objective than what this thesis holds, the project still illustrates how multifunctional solutions can be of great value. In Sønæs, the design invites both children and adults to be a part of the nature. Paths leads down to, and even across the lakes and it is allowed, to touch and play with water. Simultaneously, the solution contributes to a resilient society through its technical solutions.

Buzzard points is a good example on how adaption can contribute to a less vulnerable and more resilient urban fabric. Here, the objective for the strategies has been to implement both hard and soft adaptions into the built structure, creating a protected new living district in Washington. The result indicates that it is possible to construct buildings in an area threatened by flooding, if the development is planned according to the site-specific vulnerable factors on stake. On the other hand, in Jyllinge Nordmark, where the aim is similar to the one in Buzzard Point, the adaption approaches to avoid inundation in the built structure – the sea wall - has degraded liveability in the area. In Jyllinge Nordmark, the planners have put their trust in traditional methods, and the hard adaptions has become a barrier, separating the shore and housing district with its large construction.

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Summary of chapter 2-5

6

Summary of chapter 2-5

// Introduction Information and knowledge retrieved from The Site (chapter 2), Unfold-

ing the landscape (chapter 3), and Reference cases (chapter 4) is assembled and summarized through the method of a SWOT analyse and subsequently by the use of TOWS model. The SWOT-matrix is backed up by personal experiences from site-visits, background history and the areas current situation.

The results of this summary, which are presented in the TOWS model, is later used as framework for the development of the modelled scenarios in chapter 7: No Interventions (7.1), Urbanity (7.2), Biodiversity (7.3), and Recreation (7.4), and further into the integrated vision for Kalvøen in chapter 8.

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Summary of chapter 2-5

6.1

// SWOT analysis

The SWOT analysis was originally used by companies, to analyse the company’s internal strengths and weaknesses while also gathering the opportunities and threats that can be found externally. However, the analysis method can be used in many types of organizations and compositions, for example when you have a desire to do a situation analysis of a project or a specific product (Studieportalen, n.d.). A SWOT analysis can, based on its four categories, provide a picture of the current strategic situation, and provide an overview of where one stands right here and now (Søndergaard, 2016).

In the SWOT analysis, a distinction is made between internal and external conditions, and the word SWOT itself is a combination of the four words (1) Strengths, (2) Weaknesses, (3) Opportunities and (4) Threats, where: 1. Strengths describes the internal strengths.

2. Weaknesses describes the internal weaknesses.

3. Opportunities describes the external opportunities

one can take advantage of for improvement.

4. Threats describes the external threats that you cannot control yourself.

The analysis itself is most often used in bullet points or in short sentences.

The results of the SWOT analysis for Kalvøen are presented in figure 6.1.

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Internal Conditions Strenghts

Weaknesses

Recreational oppurtunities Location:

Adjecent to city centre

Close to many dwellings and potential users Large (and green) landscape Broad variation in usergroups The former island Kalvø - natural flood protection Sillebro Å Few landowners - easier in decisionmaking

Football fields:

Poor biodiversity - intensive care of

the landscape

Barriers, no connectivity

No multifunctionality Vulnerability:

Already affected by storm surge

Terrain below sea level

Existing buildings are damaged by inundation,

expensive to protect and repair

External Conditions Oppurtunities Enhanced resilience:

Storm surge adaption

Water retention and

purification Habitat for many species - Biodiversity Economic benefits in new dwellings Soft and ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation

Threats Future storm surge and inundation Organisations forced to retreat or relocate Biodiversity degredation Lack of knowledge

decision making and policies

rely on traditional methods and approaches Political forces - government Economy - what is a good investment?

Figure 6.1 - A SWOT analyse is used to assemble information and knowledge from chapter 2-5.

Summary of chapter 2-5

6.2

// TOWS model

The TOWS model is based on the SWOT analysis and the information that can be retrieved from it. A TOWS model cannot be used to suggest best practice, since the model is not structured to prioritize the strategies. It brings an overview of how strengths, weaknesses, possibilities, and threats can be combined into different strategies. The strategies developed through the TOWS model should not be considered as independent of each other. On the contrary, they are very dependent on each other, as it would be extraordinary if e.g., an organization, or a project, only possess either strengths or weaknesses, and only face threats or opportunities (Olesen & Vidal, 1995).

With the help of the model, it is possible to set up a number of strategic measures and get an overview of which measures that can minimize, or alternative-

ly maximize, the factors listed in the SWOT analysis.

Based on the TOWS model, a whole range of strategic initiatives are generated, which can later be used to improve the situation. The objective with the model is to reduce weaknesses while preventing threats that put pressure on the current situation (Studieportalen, n.d.)

The matrix in the TOWS model is set up based on the most relevant factors found in the SWOT analysis.

Subsequently, it is important to reflect upon, and take a stand on the four different forms of strategic initiatives that the model generates (Søndergaard, 2016). The four strategic initiatives are (1) Maxi-Maxi, (2) Maxi-Mini, (3) Mini-Maxi) and (4) Mini-Mini.

1. Maxi-Maxi The starting point for this strategy is strengths and opportunities. One strives to find and maximize the strengths, and the number of options in the outcome. It is desirable to have as many combinations as possible in this field of the matrix.

2. Maxi-Mini This strategy uses the strengths and threats. By the use of strengths, this is an attempt to resist threats listed in the SWOT-matrix. In other words, improve the activities that can already be seen as strengths.

3. Mini-Maxi Here, based on the weaknesses and the opportunities that is available, the weak sides should be minimizes and the opportunities maximized. Briefly, in this part, efforts are made to improve the weaknesses, so that the opportunities can be used to a greater extent.

4. Mini-Mini In the last strategic field, an attempt is made to minimize the weaknesses and threats from the SWOT analysis. By taking a stand on these parameters, and preferably avoiding them at all, the current situation can be improved.

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Internal Conditions Football fields:

Location

- Poor biodiversity

Large (and green) landscape

- Barriers, no connectivity

Broad variation in usergroups

- No multifunctionality

Sillebro Å

- Excluding potential users

Few landowners

Vulnerability: - Storm surge, terrain below

Biodiversity

External Conditions

Economic benefits Soft and ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation

Future storm surge and inundation Forced retreat or relocation Biodiversity degredation Lack of knowledge - decision making and policies - rely on traditional methods

sea level

- Existing buildings

Opportunities Enhanced resilience

Weaknesses

Strenghts

Recreational oppurtunities

A multifunctional green area - adaption - recreation Sell land as investment - find locations suitable for new built environment Enhance oppurtunities gained by Sillebro Å - naturalised riverine

Relocation of sport activities to new sport centre in the city - Better use of the area

Incoorporate adaptation to the recreational environment

Ease relocation - plan for new location of activities and buildings

Sociotechnical transition - from government to governance - find best practice

Implement long term strategic planning for adaption

Political forces - government

Threats

Figure 6.2 - Information from the SWOT analysis is brought into TOWS model, and different scenarios has been generated in the matrix of the model. These scenarios are later used in chapter 7.

Scenarios

7

Scenarios

// Introduction

In this chapter, different scenarios will be described, unfolded, and investigated. The overall aim with this process is to illustrate how Kalvøens trajectory could develop in different directions, depending on what actions or interventions are initiated. The future scenarios described represent a mid-term time frame, from present time to the year 2050. By keeping it to a relatively near future, the level of uncertainty in the predictions are kept at a lower rate than what a long-term time frame would imply. It is also not accounted for other extreme weather, such as cloudburst in these scenarios.

To create a framework for the scenario-descriptions and predicted outcomes, it is assumed that a number of conditions are fulfilled for all of them.

These important conditions, see the list below, are therefore not described further into detail in the different trajectories. The scenario for no interventions represents a trajectory where no adaption strategies would be implemented, and can therefore be compared to the other scenarios, where adaption is present.

Framework for the scenarios

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1

For every trajectory it is presumed that the city centre of Frederikssund is protected against future flooding.

2

By the year 2050 - Kalvøen has been affected by several storm surges with sea levels high above normal.

3

For more accurate predictions, the scenarios only relate to flooding caused by storm surge in Roskilde Fjord.

4

None of the theoretical scenarios should stand as a true prediction of the future by themselves. They illustrate extreme trajectories, products of different possible strategic approaches pushed to the very limit.

Scenarios

7.1

// No interventions

7.1.1 Trajectory In this scenario, the local government will not intervene at all in the progress of Kalvøen, leaving everything ‘business as usual’. The area will keep its structure with sport activities, recreational areas, The Vikings Village etc. For years, the city will rely on their existing emergency plan. When flooding occurs, Frederikssund is partly protected with transportable water-tubes and sandbags, keeping the sea water away from the inland.

Meanwhile, the area is exposed to several storm surges, flooding almost the entire area. To avoid inundation in the city centre, emergency plans are put into action for every extreme weather situation. Sillebro Å can been closed by river locks to avoid inundation in the city centre, temporary levees, such as water-tubes, are used, and people have been evacuated from the area during the most extreme events.

Over time, local government will realise that it is not sustainable to keep acting on every storm event.

For a preservation of Kalvøens activities, and to withstand more and more frequent storm surges, the area must become protected against future flooding, and from congestions in Sillebro Å. The municipality rely on traditional methods and seek for the best structural adaptions. In this case, it includes enhanced coastal protection with levees, enforced river locks in Sillebro Å and an updated emergency action plan.

Amongst the interventions to avoid inundation in the city centre, a 2.5-meter-high sea wall is constructed at the most critical point in the northern part of the area. There have also been terrain alterations on the old dike to the south, keeping water from the fjord away from Kalvøen. To realise these plans, roads are temporarily redirected, since the new walls creates barriers in the landscape.

A new sports centre has been under development south of the city centre, dimensioned to facilitate many of the sport activities that are present in Frederikssund (Frederikssund Kommune, 2016a) see figure 7.1. At the end of this trajectory, in 2050, one or more activities is relocated from Kalvøen due to the

cities over dimensioned amount of sport fields – there is no longer support for maintaining all activities in Kalvøen. Since the municipality has no ongoing plans for the area, this allocation leaves room and potential for more spontaneous vegetation, just as in the adjacent park Sillebro Ådal, and similar to what can be found close to the riverine of Sillebro Å in the case area. The green infrastructure has an open ground vegetation (Hansen & Müssel, 2019), with walking paths for connectivity and places with low grass. Here, people come together and take use of the area for different gatherings and outdoor activities.

The Viking Village has tried to keep their activities, and since they are located in an elevated part of the area, it has been possible to stay open. But due to the effects of recent storms, they have been forced to act on their own and relocate their business. This after several years, where the organisation has tried to avoid flooding with sandbags, watertubes and pumps.

When storm surges keep causing flooding in the area, it has been too hard and costly to maintain The Viking Village and keep it open for visitors.

Figure 7.1 - The ongoing development of a new sport centre, south of the city centre in Frederikssund (2021).

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Scenarios

New dich at tipping point 1.66m to avoid flooding

r

et e

El

ev

at ed

di

ch

>

2.

5

m

Empty buildings that used to house the Viking Village

n, tio ty a t p e eg e em v s h s ou o t ne int field a t g o ll n Sp eadi otba r o f p s

Terrain alterations to avoid the riverine of Sillebro Å to inundate the area

N 1:5000

74

Figure 7.2 - Map illustrating the trajectory for Kalvøen if the municipality leaves everything “business as usual”. By the year 2050, the Viking Village has relocated their business, many football fields stand unused, and hard adaptions have been used to avoid a complete inundation of the area.

Scenarios

7.1.2 Benefits The prime benefit with this scenario is that it does not demand any extra planning to be executed, and therefore is cost effective. And, regardless of what interventions the municipality would undertake, the probability of public resistance is high. By letting the area be as everyone knows it, people can stay within the comfort of having what they are used to.

Many of the activities in Kalvøen are much appreciated by the public, and almost all football activities in Frederikssund happens here. By securing the area from future flooding, these functions, that have been present in the area for many years, could remain open.

7.1.3 Nagging issues When ignoring the issues of climate change and letting the present activities in the area stay as they are, the municipality of Frederikssund is left with several dilemmas. Both regarding protection of Kalvøen to avoid flooding, and to budget for sudden expenses due to water damages to existing buildings and infrastructure.

Therefore, this scenario raises several issues. As seen in the past, storm surges have caused flooding in the area, and beyond its edge into the city centre.

Latest when the storm Bodil hit Denmark in 2013 (Frederikssund Kommune, 2016b). Storm surges will affect the area more and more frequent in the future and without any long-term strategic planning, it is a matter of time, before the next storm will again severely affect Frederikssund. Due to the absence of climate adaption measures implemented, Kalvøen will turn into a more vulnerable, and probably costly, area for Frederikssund. If the aim is to protect Kalvøens activities, the municipality must invest in suitable interventions to make this a reality. This puts even more pressure on the municipalities budget.

Many of these interventions will be hard adaptions, which leads to citizens cut off from the coastline by barriers. The result will have great impact on liveability in Frederikssund.

Models and predictions for future climate change and impacts can provide the information needed to indicate what interventions are needed to secure the area. But these predictions are never 100% trustworthy. What happens the day a storm surge is more forceful than what the adaptions can take? Will Frederikssund respond with even higher sea walls?

Also, by preserving all activities with any measures needed, the municipality loses opportunities for a more resilient development, leaving no room for open ended solutions.

7.1.4 Summary As illustrated in this scenario – by having no long-term management plan for the area, leaving it to its own progress, Kalvøen will not remain as it is. Whilst Frederikssund centre is protected against flooding with a high dike, repeated flooding of Kalvøen will undoubtfully change the usage of the area. By the year 2050 – many functions are relocated., and the dike along with flood damages makes Kalvøen harder to access for the citizens. By the year 2050, the citizens of Frederikssund will experience more frequency in emergency actions from the municipality, to avoid severe damages to the socioeconomic situation. Frederikssund will have lost important connectivity to its waterfront, with a degradation of the city’s liveability as a result. In the end, this can have an impact on public health.

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Scenarios

a

A

N 1:5000

76

Figure 7.3 - Masterplan for the area - where the recreational area is transformed into one large dwelling district, with 70 new buildings.

The orange line (Aa) marks where the section, figure 7.4, is located.

Scenarios

7.2

// Urbanisation

7.2.1 Trajectory In this scenario, Kalvøen is developed into a new urban district, following a masterplan, see figure 7.3, with includes infrastructure and 70 new buildings for habitation. In the plan, to make it an attractive place to live, there is accounted for the inhabitants to enjoy some of the pre-existing activities such as the indoor stadium, Restaurant Kalvøen and the paths and nature adjacent to Sillebro Å. Other activities, e.g., football fields and tennis courts, are relocated to make room for the new development.

Unfortunately, many of the houses in the lower part of the area are struggling with flooding, and some of them are already inhabitable due to water damages, see figure 7.4. The same goes for the indoor stadium, Frederikssund-shallen, that has been renovated after the first flooding, but after repeated storm surge, it is closed for access. It has been too expensive to repair the damages to the structure.

At the end of this trajectory, Frederikssund is considering efforts to secure the new district. The economic in-vestments in the new districts have been large, and whilst being under large pressure from many stakeholders in the area, their best solution is to construct a sea wall towards the fjord.

7.2.2 Benefits As some local politicians argue, by selling, and allowing urban development in the area, a positive effect on a socioeconomic level could be gained. Both directly, since the sell would generate profit, and by the increase of citizens living in Frederikssund. Also, the new district is strategically well located, and could become very attractive for potential buyers. It is adjacent to green recreational areas, connected to the city centre by paths and roads, and in walking distance to Frederikssund train station.

7.2.3 Nagging issues Just as for the scenario of no interventions, see page 71, this approach and development of the area would demand protection. One critical difference between the two scenarios is, that in this case, there are new stakeholders involved – both investors and new homeowners. It is crucial for the development of a new housing district in the area that new settlements are located and designed so protection of residents and their assets is taken into account. The scenario also demands a plan for rainwater management since housing development will lead to more non-permeable / sealed surfaces such as roof tops and new roads. As a result, these sealed surfaces cause a decrease in infiltration and an increased water runoff in the area.

“There, I would like us to use the opportunity to build some really great housings, which will be located 3-400 meters from an S-train station, with a view over Roskilde Fjord. We can get some citizens here, who are willing to pay a lot of money to become part of our community ...”

Ole Søbæk, Konservative 2017 77

Scenarios

A

a

Figure 7.4 - Section Aa showing an extreme event for how a storm surge has led to flooding, 1.66m above normal levels, which affects the new district. Buildings in the lower parts of the terrain are inundated by fjord water. This extreme flooding is based on the presumption that no extra interventions to protect the area from a storm surge is undertaken. Note that the vertical scale in the section is exaggerated.

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Scenarios

7.2.4 Summary Kalvøen is an attractive area, adjacent to both the city centre and the shoreline. It is therefore understandable that some local politicians argue that the area should be up for sale and that contractors could then be allowed to build dwellings on the plots.

The same local politicians point out the area, that today houses the football fields, as specially interesting and valuable. Two of their main arguments are that new housing would have a great view of the fjord and be in walking distance of stores and the train station. The profit could be invested to support the budget of the new, improved, sports centre that is under construction in Frederikssund (Frederikssund Kommune, 2016a).

In a debate broadcasted on TV2 Lorry 26th of October 2017 (TV2 Lorry, 2017), before the danish municipal election the same year, Tom Lysgaard from the party Borgernes Liste responded to a question regarding where the money for the new sports centre should come from: “They must come from Kalvøen. And Kalvøen must not just finance the sports centre in Frederikssund. We also think that we have a sports vision in Hornsherred; we have Jægerspris who also want a sports centre, and there are other things that also need to be on the agenda, besides the sports town in Frederikssund”.

In the same debate, and to a question about what should happen to Kalvøen, Ole Søbæk from Konservative responded:

“There, I would like us to use the opportunity to build some really great housings, which will be located 3-400 meters from an S-train station, with a view over Roskilde Fjord. We can get some citizens here, who are willing to pay a lot of money to become part of our community ...”

Today, there is no local government decision for this action, and some of the other political parties are against the plans (Jensen K. , 2020). But it is still a possible outcome, and it should be taken into consideration.

If the municipality decides to sell Kalvøen, new developers should be obliged to undertake investigations and present a model for place-based resilient land use when working with new housing projects.

As in the case of Buzzard Point in Washington, see page 59, this should include sustainable materials, space for life, a plan A and B for inundation and consideration of how green and blue infrastructure could be a robust part of the area.

As seen in figure 7.4, and on the terrain map, page 50, the area is not all flat and the most eastern parts, along with the original island of Kalvøen are more elevated than the rest. If Frederikssund decides to develop the area with urbanization, they might consider not using all the area, but instead focus on the parts that are less vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge.

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Scenarios

7.3

// Biodiversity

7.3.1 Trajectory Kalvøen is in this scenario planned and managed in a direction, where biodiversity is regarded as being the main priority and efforts are not made to keep the water away from Kalvøen. Instead, water and temporary inundation is accepted as a new reality and is brought into strategic planning as a natural part of the area. This has led to a big transformation from what can be seen today, as illustrated in figure 7.5 on the next page.

After thorough investigations and planning, Sillebro Å has gotten a new riverine. Instead of the old almost straight channel, it is now meandering through the area, with a more naturalised pathway and fluctuating water-levels. The stream is accompanied by small wetlands and ponds, both serving as habitats for many new species. The remodelling of the riverine has led to excessive soil, which has been used on site for terrain alterations, creating a more undulating landscape. Simultaneously, monocultural grasslands, e.g., the football fields, is altered into a place where spontaneous vegetation can migrate into and new biotopes can be established. This vegetation consists of a palette of bio habitat-supporting and pollinator-friendly native plant species. Species most likely to withstand potential climate change conditions are chosen to enhance the outcome (Hunter, 2011). In some cases, this has involved an assisted migration of species not currently present in, or adjacent to, the site.

7.3.2 Benefits With the transformation, several ecosystem services are amplified. Amongst other interventions, the meandering Sillebro Å and wetlands act as a buffer, making the area more resilient to future flooding. It also contributes to water purification and habitation for a diversity of species. When storm surges affect the area with rising sea water levels and flooding, the new structure of Kalvøen is more resilient to this 80

disturbance. When lower parts of the landscape are flooded, the variation in vegetation can withstand this pressure, and is collectively not affected when conditions return to a normal state again. Simultaneously – since some areas are more elevated than before, flooding will not affect Kalvøen to the same degree.

When working with water, the existing site conditions may present conducive opportunities for the implementation of beneficial design features. In this process, many factors act together to become a collective structure in the landscape: a.

b.

c.

Natural depressions can be flooded and used as water retention during storm surge.

Areas with permeable soil can improve infiltration.

Existing vegetation can enhance water purification, acting as bio-filter.

The meandering riverine yields both shallow areas, and deeper pools. This diversity of its habitat structure holds a more hospitable environment which can sustain a higher degree of biodiversity than what a straight channel can. Vegetation along the meandering river has a significant effect on slowing down erosion, as root systems reinforces the banks.

The present football-fields holds a very low degree of biodiversity and can almost be seen as a grass desert, as illustrated in figure 4.3, page 46. By introducing new species – and thus greening the area - recreational opportunities for citizens, and the public health, is enhanced.

Kalvøen plays a significant role in the urban fabric, as it supports human wellbeing, wildlife, and acts as a nature corridor, resilient to climate change (Hunter, 2011).

“forest”

meadow

pond wetland pond new riverine old buildings

meadow

N 1:5000

“forest”

Figure 7.5 - With biodiversity in focus, water has become an active component in the area. Old buildings, marked with a black outline, are removed, as well as the football fields. A meandering riverscape dominates the landscape, with its adjacent ponds and larger wetlands.

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Scenarios

7.4 7.3.3 Nagging issues In this scenario, some important stakeholders, such as different user groups and organisations, are neglected. When planning for, and managing the area, as a place with focus on enhancing biodiversity, it will have a social impact. Kalvøen can come across as being wild, forgotten and not well tended. The meandering Sillebro Å, with fluctuating water-levels and adjacent wetlands weakens public access to the area. Also, facilities for outdoor recreation are not taken into consideration in this scenario, leaving less room available for outdoor recreation, sports facilities or social events.

7.3.4 Summary Vegetation provides home and nourishment for native species such as insects, a key parameter for human life. It also enhances the quality of the soil structure, leading to improved infiltration capacity after a flood or a cloudburst. However, vegetation in urban areas is continuing to be simplified, leading to a degradation of native vegetation where a complex understory habitat is largely missing. Kalvøen is no exception, characterized by a monocultural landscape, with football fields acting as matrix.

For the area to be robust and resilient, a broad spectrum of species is important. This to secure a continuous high biodiversity – even if Frederikssund would experience future temperature change, draught or flooding. By meandering the riverine, many new micro-habitats are created. Just as in Bishan an Mo, this will benefit the biodiversity. An effect of the diverting of Sillebro Å and its new naturalised pathway, is that wetlands with fluctuating water-levels are introduced. The response to this new riverscape is improved resilience, as new wetlands contribute to a damage reduction caused by flooding.

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// Recreation

7.4.1 Trajectory In this scenario, efforts are made to enhance the recreative opportunities in Kalvøen. The area is experiencing flooding due to storm surges and cloudbursts are causing the water levels in Sillebro Å to flow over the riverbanks. Just as in the scenario for biodiversity, Kalvøen is here designed with inundation as an accepted, and natural, component of the area. This since water can be an attractive factor in recreational environments. For public access, pathways in the area are elevated, enabling people to walk through Kalvøen even after a storm surge, when the water table is high above normal, see figure 7.8, page 83.

Sport activities in the area are rethought, and those activities that used to be played on intensively managed grassland are relocated to the new sport centre south of the city centre. For people who still might enjoy a game of traditional football, Kalvøen still offers opportunities for this activity, just in a less structured way. A large area is remained low in the terrain, acting as a retention basin and buffer against flooding. When the area is dry, the open space can be used for spontaneous sport activities, such as different ball sports.

After a storm surge, people will still enjoy their new recreational Kalvøen, just as they would do in dry periods. Kids are playing in playgrounds, that now has water elements added to them, couples take walks by the river, and joggers uses the area for their traditional morning run.

7.4.2 Benefits There are many opportunities for recreational benefits when the city’s edges are re-thought. People gain much from a better connection to nature, as parks and green spaces in the urban landscape are considered as being therapeutic elements (Grahn & Stigsdotter, 2010). It makes us happier, healthier, and

Scenarios

able to live more meaningful lives. With good access to these elements comes a variety of benefits to individual and community well-being, including physical and psychological health as well as social and economic value (Beatley, 2018) (Wang, Brown, & Liu, 2015). A number of benefits gained by strong opportunities for outdoor recreation are listed in figure 7.6, where they are categorized in personal, societal and environmental benefits.

The waterfront park of Kalvøen provides new opportunities for people to get direct physical contact and access to green and blue environments. It creates a dynamic and multifunctional park with water connectivity in many scales and levels. Children can play near the small ponds, get their feet wet and collect tail toads in the springtime. People can take a long walk or run along the elevated path system, and it is possible to gather a group of friends in one of the many smaller areas that the riverscape and vegetation cre-

ates. The areas vegetation, with many trees provides a feeling of wilderness, even though Kalvøen has a direct contact to the city centre.

The green and blue infrastructure of Frederikssund becomes more dynamic and multifunctional.

Besides the recreational benefits the structure also provides flood mitigation and resilience (Beatley, 2018). By allowing sea and river water to enter the area, the city’s connection to water is enhanced, and the new shoreline structure integrates citizens need of recreational areas with marine biodiversity and improved ecology.

Paths supports mobility and enhance the connectivity in the area. At the same time, since they are elevated, they are also functioning as structural adaptions, and through their pathways and design they hinder water from flooding designated areas see figure 7.7. By this, areas that should remain dry are kept in this state.

Figure 7.6 - List of benefits retrieved from a strong structure of outdoor recreation opportunities.

Benefits of outdoor recreation Personal

Societal

Psychological mental health personal development and growth personal appreciation/satisfaction Physiological improved physical health social benefits strenghten relations

Lower crime rate General public health reduced health costs for the society

Environmental

Increased environmental protection nature parks conservation Improved public knowledge and awareness

83

N 1:5000

84

Figure 7.7 - Spatial disposition of the area, when recreation is in focus.

Elevated paths give easy access to the area, even if water levels would be above normal. they also act as barriers, controlling which areas are to be inundated if a storm surge would occur. A new riverine meander through the landscape - giving visitors opportunities to experience a varied site.

The orange dotted line marks the outline for where flooding to a level of 1.7 meter will occur.

Scenarios

7.4.3 Nagging issues There is always a discussion of how many parks and green areas a city need, and opponents might argue that the area will serve the city better if it is developed into a housing district. Others will find the interventions destructive since many of the activities that are present today must be relocated for the transformation to be realised.

An urban development has a direct economic value, but it is much harder to measure the economic benefits of the green structure. Kalvøen is a large area, and a new park would hold a substantial part of the city’s total landmass. The investments in this kind of project might be considered as having excessive physical dimensions for a communi-ty in the size of Frederikssund.

7.4.4 Summary Humans have a need for contact with nature at many levels and scales (Beatley, 2018). By adding recreational value to Kalvøen, the area brings opportunities for the population to enjoy their everyday leisure time close to their homes in Frederikssund. It will also have an economic value, since an enhanced green infrastructure can contribute to improved resilience against climate change and better public health.

Elevated paths make the area accessible, and vegetation creates room in a smaller scale. By designing the landscape with water as a natural component, ecology is improved, residents are connected to water, and resilience is enhanced through the marine environments in the area.

Figure 7.8 - Section, of how the landscape can be designed for recreational purpose. Elevated path adjacent to the stream can be used for a run and the stream is easy to access from the surroundings. It is possible to touch the surface of the water or play on the riverbanks.

Scale 1:100

85

Scenarios

// Summary of Scenarios

The municipalities are under high pressure to secure their cities and adapt to future climate changes.

The predictions are very complex and has an uncertain outcome. When analysing the situation, it is therefore of great value to include this uncertainty. This concerns both the present situation, and for predictions of future outcomes, to assess best practice when it comes to possible adaption measures. Here, local government often tend to choose traditional methods such as hard adaptions as solutions.

There is also an enormous pressure on government, private sector, and civil society to create cities and neighbourhoods that are resilient, adaptive, sustainable, inclusive, equitable, economically productive, and that support good health and wellbeing (Badland & Pearce, 2019). The search for new residential and commercial areas is ongoing. When locating new areas, whether it is for recreational or urban purpose, it is necessary for the municipalities to consider site specific challenges and benefits. It is possible for municipalities to come up with multifunctional solutions, where protection of new development in a district is intertwined with added value to the city. Urban development could be applied strategically, so buildings and adjacent areas are more resilient to sea level rise and floods. With a combination of approaches, parts of an area can be used to keep water out while buildings in other places can be built high enough to avoid damage due to flooding. With climate adaptation as a part of urban development comes op-

portunities to think in long-term solutions and, among other things, set rules and principles for new developments (Realdania & Rambøll Management Consulting, 2017).

As the scenarios indicate, a built environment covering the entire area of Kalvøen would not be a good approach. This would demand major investments in extra measurements against flooding. Many new buildings would be very vulnerable, due to their location in the terrain, some places beneath sea level. But the area is slightly undulated, and with good strategic planning, housing projects could be implemented in the framework, where buildings are located in suitable locations.

Climate adaption should consequently be an integrated part of the strategic planning with emphasis on long-term solutions and guidelines for how climate change can be included in new projects. This would lead to more resilient cities with safety and enhanced liveability for future residents as an outcome. With this approach, new district development does not have to go in one specific direction but can combine several functions. This could include built environment, leisure and recreational opportunities, sustainable city functions and new social meeting places, as Beatley (2018) describes this planning approach: “A city will at once enhance water connectivity, add public park space and urban nature, and provide for flood mitigation and resilience.”

“A city will at once enhance water connectivity, add public park space and urban nature, and provide for flood mitigation and resilience.”

Beatley (2018)

86

Scenarios

87

Integrated vison

8

Integrated vison

// Embodied senses

Figure 8.1 - Planche de tendance, embodying the feeling of how the site might be perceived in the future.

89

Integrated vison

// Introduction

Biodiversity Urbanity Recreation

Frederikssund is not an isolated island, nor is Kalvøen separated from the urban landscape, but an integrated part of it. The integration could be enhanced in many ways to achieve a more resilient urban fabric. This work should be site specific, and adapted to local conditions, i.e., by incorporating existing terrain, natural waterways for surface runoff, and domestic species. It is also necessary to consider the areas relations to its surroundings and how people have access, e.g., where are the entrances? When accepting water as a natural part of the city, some protection is still needed, to avoid inundation of the city centre, as seen in the past, latest in 2013, when Bodil caused flooding of almost the entire city. Here, one might ask what measures are under any circumstances needed for this security? Where it is possible, soft adaptions should be promoted and prioritised over hard adaptions to control and retain 92

Integrated vison

Figure 8.2 - Diagrammatic concept of the key components in the design framework. The parts, biodiversity, urbanity, and recreation are intertwined, to illustrate that they cannot stand alone, but depend on each other to achieve best practice.

water and to avoid inundation in areas where it is unwanted. The interventions that must be undertaken to protect Frederikssund is presented in 7.2.

The integrated vision presented, is restricted to the area located in the lower terrain that was drained in the 19th century, and the parts closest to the city centre. It does not include strategies for the higher terrain on the former island of Kalvøen. This intentional landscape transformation through design will align climate change adaptions, socioeconomic value, and aesthetic experiences, as illustrated in figure 8.1, page 87. In this vision for Kalvøen, I have chosen to focus on incorporating three different components; Biodiversity, Urbanity and Recreation, which will be described further in the following chapter. As figure 8.2 illustrates, none of the components should stand alone in the planning but be balanced and intertwined with each other.

93

Integrated vison

8.1

Water as an active component Wetland Pond New Sillebro Å Existing riverine Water station River lock

N 1:5000

94

Figure 8.3 - Along the new stream, water stations will be established. Here, a variation of activities, where water is in focus, can take place.

Integrated vison

// Steps towards a naturalized Sillebro Å present situation

Terrain alteration

After a transformation, the blue and green structure should offer more diversity but remain accessible for the public. By creating a more diverse landscape, where the largest intervention is a meandering stream running through the area, comes opportunities for many new species to thrive and coexist. The riverine follows the existing terrain and its meanders is positioned to collect as much surface water runoff as possible from the surrounding area, see figure 4.6 in chapter 4.

The structure of the existing waterway of Sillebro Å is kept, even though it will not function as primary stream. If the pressure on the new stream becomes critical, a river lock can be opened, allowing water to flow in the old channel and out into to the fjord. Due to fluctuating water table in the watercourse, some areas will be dry most of the time,

Meandering

habitats & Biotopes

whilst others will be more wet for shorter or longer periods. Adjacent to the new Sillebro Å, several small ponds will bring a dynamic aquatic life into the area.

Opportunities for activities are created through the establishment of “Water Stations” along the paths, by the river and near the small ponds in the landscape. The water stations offer varied activities for all ages, from steppingstones to cross Sillebro Å, tree decks on the water, to different rooms where the vegetation is kept low. These areas can be used for outdoor exercise, barbecues, as playgrounds or just to meet friends and family.

A stronger and more resilient blue structure is created in Kalvøen. It combines hydrological and biological factors with social and changeable urban environments.

95

Integrated vison

8.2 Vegetation Forest Meadow New Sillebro Å Existing riverine

N 1:5000

96

Figure 8.5 - An overview of different vegetation types in the area. On the map, forests indicate where large woody plants will be established.

Integrated vison

Figure 8.6 - Alnus glutinosa

Urban green spaces provide the opportunity to conserve native biodiversity in cities. A broader spectrum of flora and fauna should be allowed to migrate into Kalvøen and thus, native flora will be enhanced.

For some areas, grasses will be allowed to grow higher and shrubs and trees will be present. Stems from dead trees will remain on the ground, and while they slowly decompose, they will act as home for many insects. The aim in this process is not to create what can be perceived as a traditional park, but instead aim for a wilder and less groomed site, still with many recreational opportunities.

If the vegetation is managed extensively, seeds from native species will spread and soon, it is expected to see pioneer shrubs and trees, such as Betula, Alnus, Salix and Corylus. This kind of spontaneous woody vegetation, with different levels of shrubs and a various herbaceous layer beneath, is something that can be experienced already, south of Frederikssundshallen, close to the existing Sillebro Å. It can be necessary to assist the different biotopes, e.g., by planting trees and introduce herbs by a manual spread of seeds.

To avoid a total afforestation, Kalvøen needs to have a plan for how to manage the vegetation. In the plan, the main objective would be to keep the woody vegetation within defined physical boundaries, “forests” in figure 8.5. For areas that are dedicated to public access, this demands an annual cut, and a removal of sprouting trees. The same procedure goes for all the small paths, where the vegetation needs to be cut 3-4 times every season. For most wetlands in the danish climate zone, Salix or Alnus will naturally establish themselves on the riverbanks and close to lakes or big ponds. Especially Alnus glutinosa, figure 8.6, will thrive in the areas closest to the watersheds or near the meandering river. An excessive growth of these species can have negative effects. Over time, the shrubs and trees will reduce the free water surface. This can be managed by a rotation principle, where the vegetation is reduced by one third in the riverbank zone. A few years later, the next third is cut, and so on. This keeps the vegetation low and varied and other plants gets the opportunities to establish themselves in the area. With this management, there will be no sudden or harmful changes to the biotope (Naturstyrelsen, 2017).

97

Integrated vison

8.3

// Urban structure for the future City centre Train station

N

98

1:5000

Figure 8.7 - A good location for new dwellings is the area adjacent to the city centre and the train station. Here, the terrain is slightly elevated, compared to the rest of Kalvøen.

Integrated vison

New houses are an important part of strengthening the urban economy, and Frederikssunds need for urban development with more dwellings is an important factor not to be neglected. Possibilities for robust and secure housing districts within the plans for Kalvøen should be evaluated and implemented in the new plan for the area. In the case-area, it is important to find the right locations for this kind of development. By taking advantage of the existing terrain, buildings can be less vulnerable to climate change.

The part of the area most suitable for a new dwelling district, is adjacent to the city centre, and to the train station, see figure 8.7. These are two very

attractive factors for new citizens, who might consider moving to Frederikssund. When constructing new buildings, both hight and compactness can contribute to many attractive apartments. It could be beneficial to plan for a high density in the built structure, since this strategy would give room for more dwellings in less space. With higher buildings than normal standards, the top floors can receive a panoramic view of both the city, Kalvøen, and even across the old island and out to Roskilde Fjord, as illustrated in figure 8.8. It might be unusual for a city the size of Frederikssund to build high-rise buildings, but for the development of Kalvøen, it is important to balance different interests against each other.

Figure 8.8 - Section showing how high-rise buildings would give the top floors an attractive view, all the way to Roskilde Fjord.

99

Integrated vison

8.4

// Connectivity Large path Small path New Sillebro Å Existing riverine Water station

Figure 8.9 - A network of paths will enhance connectivity in the area as they guide visitors through Kalvøen.

N

100

1:5000

Integrated vison

Figure 8.10 - Different kind of paths that will be present in Kalvøen

Paths in recreative environments are often used for walks and for jogging. But the paths in the area are designed for a more multi-layered purpose. They connect different rooms to each other and by letting some paths be elevated from the surrounding landscape, they are also an important part of regulating where inundation is allowed. Even when water levels in the stream are high above normal, for example during a flood, connectivity is ensured.

Some paths are more planned and constructed than others, see figure 8.10. The larger paths have a more precise route and location in the landscape compared to the smaller ones, that appear more

spontaneous, and can be altered from one season to another. For example, wooden boardwalks lead visitors both next to, and over the stream and riverbanks. Others are created out of excess soil from the project of naturalising Sillebro Å. Figure 8.11 illustrates a wooden boardwalk on one of the riverbanks. The blue dotted line illustrates a water level 2.0 meter above normal. During dry periods, the riverbanks can be used for different leisure activities, as they are accessed from boardwalks with integrated stairs. Smaller paths are mainly managed by keeping the vegetation low with a cut a few times every year.

Figure 8.11 - Section, 1:250, illustrating a water station near the stream. An elevated wooden boardwalk is constructed on the riverbank. When the water table is high, as illustrated with the blue dotted line, the boardwalk will remain dry, ensuring connectivity through the area.

101

Outro

9

Outro

Perspective This thesis has presented the background, effects, and possible adaption approaches to flooding caused by climate change. With climate adaptation, our municipalities have the opportunity to create combined and multifunctional solutions, where water becomes a resource rather than a problem. Climate adaption plans can contribute to an improved and more resilient urban environment, they can make room for new housing districts, and they can enhance recreational opportunities leading to improved public health. Thus, climate adaptation can help solve multiple challenges simultaneously.

What is not taken into consideration, is that when dealing with climate challenges, there is a requirement for a broad cooperation, good dialogue and cross-government involvement between municipalities, organizations, companies, and citizens.

Kalvøen is a part of many people’s lives. Organisations use facilities for their daily activities and sport arrangements, people take walks, and the closeness to both the city and the coast makes the area attractive for enjoying a green environment. To receive public support in a transformation of the area, information, participation, and knowledge are key components.

There is no single solution for adaption, and every urban landscape is unique. Where one adaption might be suitable in one place, it could lead to degradation of natural systems elsewhere. In our society, we have a history of relying on hard adaptions when planning for climate change adaption, and when forming different strategies. Hard adaptions can be beneficial with immediate solutions to emergent problems, but can also cause more vulnerability, be expensive, and lack multifunctionality. When

it comes to long-term planning, planners must guide decision makers, and create awareness of the opportunities and constraints of different adaption approaches. Often, it is not a question of using hard or soft adaptions but finding the right site-specific combination. With this approach to contemporary adaption planning, communities can stand more robust and enhance their resilience by being more flexible to changes.

Is the project realistic?

Frederikssund is not the largest town in Denmark, and by taking this into consideration, a project in the scale of what this thesis is proposing can come across as over-dimensioned and out of scale.

But in recent years, local politicians have shown their willingness to invest in large urban projects. For example, when Sillebro Ådal opened in 2013 (EVA, 2017), it was the largest of its kind in Denmark.

Other “mega” projects are the new sport centre (Frederikssund Kommune, 2016a), Kronprinsesse Marys Bro and Vinge (Frederikssund Kommune, n.d.). Collectively, they indicate that a transformation of Kalvøen, might be something that the local government could take seriously, and want to invest in.

Besides being a contribution to the climate adaption plan and benefit the population, the project could also promote Frederikssund and attract new citizens.

Since this thesis presents a transformation of Kalvøen, where there is no room for an outdoor football stadium, one might ask if this activity is neglected, or disregarded as less important. This is not the case. Sport activities is important for public health and should not be forgotten. However, a relocation of many sport activities will soon be possible when the new sports centre in Frederikssund opens.

103

Outro

A bigger perspective Even if Kalvøen were to be completely transformed, and all adaption measures to ensure best practice for an improved resilience is undertaken, Frederikssund would not be secured against the effects of storm surges and other climate change factors. The municipality must see Kalvøen as a part of an even larger landscape, and investigate what measures are needed elsewhere. As described in chapter 3, Roskilde Fjord has proposed a storm gate, securing the whole coast in Isefjord and Roskilde Fjord. This might be considered a very extreme intervention, but it illustrates how the municipality of Roskilde wants to protect themselves, by seeking further out into the landscape.

Flooding caused by storm surge could be avoided in Kalvøen, but there are other vulnerable areas along the coastline, where a storm surge could also lead to inundation of the central parts of Frederikssund. The same methodology used in Kalvøen might not have the best effect at other locations, and new site-specific analyses are needed to ensure the application of best suited adaption approaches.

Leaving Kalvøen In this thesis, I underline the importance of not relying on traditional methods in the strategic planning and deci-sion-making, and that knowledge of alternative approaches are important. But what about levees, and other form of hard adaptions. Is that something we should totally dissociate from?

And then, how can I in this project propose ter-rain alterations - that could be seen as structural adaptions? I would argue that in the case of Kalvøen, the terrain alterations needed can count as soft adaptions, even though they are structural. Excessive soil from the process of meandering Sillebro Å can be

104

used elsewhere in the area, e.g., for elevated paths or small levees.

In the process of unfolding Kalvøen, I have become more aware of the multitude of factors involved when planning for the future of our urban fabric. Landscape architecture is so much more than designing aesthetic outdoor environments. With our professional toolbox, we, as landscape architects and urban planners, can participate in forming how cities will be affected by upcoming climate change, and how well they will respond to this new reality.

At last, I must say that an unexpected wisdom has risen during this process. The current situation that we are experiencing, with Covid-19 affecting our lives, really states the importance of opportunities for outdoor recreation. During the pandemic, the urban green environment has become a living room for everyone. This is where we can meet our family and friends. This is where we can work on our physical health. This is where we live.

References

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