Causality Analysis
Agreeing on the problem and causes
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more learning difficulties when entering school
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more learning difficulties when entering school
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more learning difficulties when entering school
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Children looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do so
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more learning difficulties when entering school
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
Lack of knowledge of adequate child care practices
Existence of harmful traditional practices
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Children looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do so
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more learning difficulties when entering school
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
Children looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do so
Single parenting by poor mothers Lack of knowledge of adequate child care practices
Father’s absence accepted as norm
Existence of harmful traditional practices No practice of preparing expectant parents for parenthood
One parent parent died
Orphanhood
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more learning difficulties when Children looked No knowledge of entering schoolafter by people health system who are poorly support, low equipped to do utilisation so Single Lack of parenting by knowledge of poor mothers adequate child care practicesof Father’s Existence absence harmful accepted as No practice oftraditional One parent norm preparing practices parent died expectant parents for Orphanhood parenthood
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Causality Analysis
Create a Causal Tree
Use a Conceptual Framework k As
Validate Causal Analysis
Use for making strategic choice
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
s
s r e d l o h e k ta
!
Easier To Resolve
More Sustainability
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Causality Analysis
Create a Causal Tree
Use a Conceptual Framework
ice Po o
Use for making strategic choice
ho
od o G
ce i o Ch rC
Validate Causal Analysis
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Logframes
Detailed Programme Design
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Logical Aproach
Detailed Programme Design
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Agenda
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Purpose and definition of the logical approach
Elements of a logical approach and template (Logframe)
How to manage critical assumptions
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Purpose and Definition
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Improve logic of a programme or project model
Ensure that interventions are sufficient to make the results chain work
Minimize influence of critical planning assumptions
Increase the likelihood of achieving the intended results.
Monitoring indicators and strategic evaluation questions
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Logical Approach
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Used for:
CPR - Results Framework
MPO: PPO structure
PPO: project/subproject structure
for Project: sub-projects/activities
for PPA (annual projects)
for stand-alone donor proposal
for any other planning exercise
What is Logframe? A Logical Approach is often expressed in form of a matrix (Logframe):
the programme Results Chains (Activities; Outputs; Outcomes and; Strategic Results) and critical assumptions. “Vertical Logic”
(b)
programme performance assessment elements: Indicators; baselines; Targets; Means of Verification; data disaggregation, critical assumption “Horizontal Logic”
Logframes visualize programme design and allow to assess the quality of programme design at a glance
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(a)
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
A Logical Framework Programme: Programme Objective or longer term outcome/impact:
Key Indicators:
Data Sources:
Assumptions (concerning Risks, External Factors):
Key Indicators:
Data Sources:
Assumptions (concerning Risks, External Factors):
Project 1: [Title of Project] Project 1 Objective/Outcome:
Course of Action: (main interventions, major anticipated activities, responsible institutions and type of needed inputs) Project 2: [Title of Project] Project 1 Objective/Outcome:
Key Indicators:
Data Sources:
Assumptions (concerning Risks, External Factors):
Course of Action: (main interventions, major anticipated activities, responsible institutions and type of needed inputs)
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Overview of a Logframe Template and Content Levels
#
Indicators
1.
Strategic Result Statement
1.1.
Outcome statement
1.1.1.
Output Statement
1.2.1 .
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Assumption specific to Results Chain #1
Outcomes (as defined in RF)
Output Statement
Outputs (as defined in RF) Activities
Outcome Statement
Critical Assumption
Output Statement
Output Statement
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Geogr Focus
Strategic Results (as defined in RF)
List Activities -
1.2.2 .
MOVs
Vertical Logic
List Activities -
1.2 .
Targets
Assumption
List Activities -
1.1.2.
Baselines
UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Assumption specific to Results Chain #2
Overview of a Logframe Template and Content Levels
#
Indicators
Baselines
Targets
MOVs
Geogr Focus
1.
Strategic Result Statement
Assumption
1.1.
Outcome statement
Assumption specific to Results Chain #1
1.1.1.
Horizontal Logic Output Statement
Indicators
List Activities -
1.1.2.
Baselines
Output Statement
Targets
List Activities -
1.2 . 1.2.1 .
Means of Verification (Data Sources)
Outcome Statement Output Statement
Critical Assumptions
List Activities -
1.2.2 . 7/1/2009
Geographic Scope
Output Statement
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Assumption specific to Results Chain #2
However:
The value of the logical approach is not in filling the blanks in a table….
……but in reviewing and revising the interventions, until they are likely to achieve the intended result
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
„ Several iterations are usually required to reformulate the project, until critical assumptions or risks are minimised „Indicators need to including those that check whether the critical assumptions are still valid 7/1/2009
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Managing Assumption Achievement of Results X depends on 5 intermediate results
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Result X5 Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Result X5
Assumption can be Resultby the Will be done by fullyIntermediate controlled UNICEF and Gov. A, B, C project. Intermediate Result Will be done by other Remove assumptions donor and Gov. D Assumption Regular Supplies ensured Training manual developed Quality of study design ok
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Result X5
Irrelevant Intermediate Result Assumptions A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result Will be done by other Remove Assumptions donor and Gov. D Assumption Political Stability No drought No disaster Stable economy No war in the region 7/1/2009
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Assumption should have been Result clarified X5 earlier. Intermediate Result A, B, C Intermediate Result Survey/Research D before proceeding Assumption with the rest
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov. Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Community considers xxx a high priority Politicians and officials believe in gender equality Private sector will cooperate
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Assumption should5be Result X clarified. Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Consider a pilot Intermediate Result Will be done by other project before scaling donor and Gov. D up Assumption
Teachers will apply what they learned Caretakers will bring child to facility Children will use latrines
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Assumption can be Result X5 managed to a large Intermediate Result extend. A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result Will be done by other Modify/add D activities donor and Gov.
and budgets Assumption
Monitoring system in place Use of guidelines enforced Good co-ordination between partners 7/1/2009
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Serious Assumptions, Result X5 but can be influenced. Will be done by Intermediate Result A, B, C
UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Resultdesign Will be done by other Modify project donor and Gov. D or objectives Assumption
Favourable policy environment Political commitment Funds available
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Demand can be mobilised UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Result X5
Killer Assumptions! Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Re-think or abandon Intermediate Result Will be done by other project/programme donor and Gov. D Assumption
Improved services are matched by social movement Attitude change required Decentralisation process completed successfully
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section
Result X5
Killer Assumptions! Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Re-think or abandon Intermediate Result Will be done by other project/programme donor and Gov. D Assumption The president will… + sustained highest level… + WorldBank grant … + skilled staff everywhere... + all other things in place… + etc etc... 7/1/2009
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UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section