culture/Shift Facing the Future 2016 The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to no5ce. And because we fail to no5ce what we fail to no5ce, There is li;le we can do to change, Un5l we no5ce how failing to no5ce shapes our thoughts and deeds. R.D. Laing.
What •
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framework for resilience thinking •
engineering, ecological and evolu7onary resilience
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preparedness
proposal •
•
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culture/Shi$: transforma)on is not a systems failure
social engagement •
development of knowing and understanding
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provoca7on, imagina7on & story telling
impact
A framework
Evolutionary Resilience Transformation Engineering Resilience Persistence Preparedness
Ecological Resilience Adaptability
source: Davoudi, S., Brooks, L. and Mehmood, A. (2013), developing Holling (1996)
Engineering resilience
Dumfries oods 2016, Daily Record
source: Pant, R. , Barker, K. and Zobel, C. (2014)
Ecological resilience
source: Applying Resilience Thinking, SEI
source: Holling , 1996
Socio-ecological // Evolu5onary resilience
source: Dee catchment, Aberdeen City Council
r
r
r
Tokyo :: 34,700,000
Preparedness
Evolutionary Resilience Transformation
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Unites the 3 domains of resilience in socio-economic systems…
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fostering the persistence of important infrastructure (persistence & robustness),
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the efficient use of resources to meet challenges in an integrated way (adaptability),
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through timely interventions, enabling choices through human and institutional flexibility,
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and steering transitions away from diminished and depleted outcomes towards futures that benefit greater numbers of people (innovation & transformation)
Engineering Resilience Persistence Preparedness Intentionality
Ecological Resilience Adaptability
Assessment of the Mayor’s Climate Change Adapta5on Strategy • • • • • • • •
• •
Dominant engineering understanding of resilience: resistance over resilience Focus on sudden extreme weather events rather than small, incremental and longrunning changes P2PR sta7c, linear process cf a dynamic process of adapta7on with no steady state Lack of priori7sa7on of ac7ons as a result of poor understanding of consequences and impacts Focus on vulnerabili7es over opportuni7es DRR mentality along with most other climate adapta7on strategies Reliance on individual strengths and capaci7es at the expense of building social networks and capital, characteris7c of engineering approach The emphasis on bouncing back as in engineering resilience, or even forth, as in ecological resilience, fails to consider disturbance as a ‘window of opportunity’ for transforming to a radically different and more desirable trajectory. To increase the likelihood of such transforma7on, the social learning process should focus as much on detec7ng poten7al opportuni7es as on finding out poten7al vulnerabili7es. The transforma7ve poten7al is hardly evident Limited consulta7on on evidence base, framework, ac7ons and key indicators. The Strategy neither invites comment on the civic engagement aspects nor makes a commitment to a systema7c presenta7on or analysis of responses, but only to use ‘best’ ideas in the final version
Assessment of the Mayor’s Climate Change Adapta5on Strategy It seeks resilience largely as persistence, embodied in an enduring physical and ins7tu7onal infrastructure, and encapsulated in the P2R2 trajectory from prepara7on to recovery. Persistence is, therefore, viewed as in itself the marker of resilience and more generally as the sign of a well-managed organisa:on or network. This is in contrast with evolu:onary resilience and its pursuit of building capacity for envisaging and embracing transforma:on through crea:vity and imagina:on at ins7tu7onal, community and individual levels and through cul7va7ng flexibility, resourcefulness and coopera7ve networks at various scales. Evolu7onary resilience promotes the ins7tu7onalisa7on of awareness of adaptability dynamics as a way of enhancing preparedness and with it, the capacity to influence the direc7on of future transforma7ons. A crucial consequence of the Strategy’s engineering approach is its limited aaen7on to the social processes, which can enhance or diminish resilience. The importance of people’s memories, stories, networks and coopera:ve rela:onships in building resilience has been given li@le space (in the Strategy).
■■■■■■■■■■■■■ The success of any social movement is dependent on its ability to depict a world where people want to go.
Martin Luther King
culture/Shi$ From a mindset of risk management to a mindset of transformation
knowledge …
On those remote pages it is wriaen that animals are divided into (a) those that belong to the Emperor, (b) embalmed ones, (c) those that are trained, (d) suckling pigs, (e) mermaids, (f) fabulous ones, (g) stray dogs, (h) those that are included in this classifica7on, (i) those that tremble as if they were mad, (j) innumerable ones, (k) those drawn with a very fine camel’s hair brush, (l) others, (m) those that have just broken a flower vase, (n) those that resemble flies from a distance.
Jorge Luis Borgés, “The Analy7cal Language of John Wilkins”
Las Meninas Diego Velรกzquez (1656)
Girl with a Mandolin Pablo Picasso (1910)
■■■■■■■■■■■■■ The only way to approach such a period in which uncertainty is high and one cannot predict what the future holds, is not to predict but to experiment and act inventively and exuberantly via diverse adventures in living Dianne Dumanoski
Nil by Mouth Sustainable Food Production Charles Bestwick | Mike Bonaventura | Hans Clausen | Lorna Dawson | Zack Denfeld & Cat Kramer Chris Fremantle | Harry Giles | Jo Hodges & Robbie Coleman | Jennie MacDiarmid Wendy Russell | Sally Thomas | Pieter VandeGraaf | Christine Watson
The Museum of the Future Now
Story telling
Impact Instrumental
actual changes in policy or prac7ce
Capacity building
training of students or professionals
Conceptual
broad understanding / awareness raising
AKtudinal or cultural
increased willingness to engage in new collabora7ons
Enduring connec5vity
follow-on interac7ons
EndNotes •
Holling, C.S. (1996) Engineering Resilience versus Ecological Resilience. in Engineering within Ecological Constraints (Ed.) Schulze, P. Na7onal Academy Press, Washington D.C. 1996; available at: hap://www.nap.edu/read/4919/chapter/4
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Gunderson, L. (2009) Comparing Ecological and Human Community Resilience, CARRI Research Report No. 5; available at: hap://www.resilientus.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ Final_Gunderson_1-12-09_1231774754.pdf
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Dumanoski, D. (2009) The End of the Long Summer: Why We Must Remake our Civilisa7on to Survive on a Vola7le Earth. Penguin Random House, London
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Applying Resilience Thinking. Seven Principles for Building Resilience in Socio-Economical Systems. Stockholm Environment Ins7tute, 2012; available at: www.stockholmresilience.su.se
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Davoudi, S., Brooks, L. and Mehmoot, A. (2013) Evolu)onary Resilience and Strategies for Climate Adapta)on. Planning Prac7ce & Research 28(3), 307-322 doi: 10.1080/02697459.2013.787695
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Pant, R., Barker, K. and Zobel, C.W. (2014) Sta)c and dynamic metrics of economic resilience for interdependent infrastructure and industry sectors. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 125 pp.92-102 doi:10.1016/j.ress.2013.09.007
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Moore, M.-L., O. Tjornbo, E. Enfors, C. Knapp, J. Hodbod, J. A. Baggio, A. Norström, P. Olsson, and D. Biggs. (2014) Studying the complexity of change: toward an analy)cal framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transforma)ons. Ecology and Society 19(4): 54. doi: 10.5751/ES-06966-190454
Resources •
Socio-ecological systems: Resilience Alliance hap://www.resalliance.org/concepts-social-ecologicalsystems
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Managing Risks and Increasing Resilience. The Mayor’s Climate Change Adapta7on Strategy. Mayor of London, October 2011; available at: haps://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/ gla_migrate_files_des7na7on/Adapta7on-oct11.pdf
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Scossh Climate Change Adapta7on Programme. Scossh Government, May 2014; available at: hap:// www.gov.scot/Resource/0045/00451392.pdf
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ESRC Evalua7on and Impact: hap://www.esrc.ac.uk/research/evalua7on-and-impact/
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Environmental humani7es: www.environmentalhumani7es.ed.ac.uk and the on-going RSE funded project Connec)ng Low Carbon Scotland: www.s7r.ac.uk/cehp/projects/connec7ngwithalowcarbonscotland/
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Environmental crea7ve prac7ce - art and making, see for example ecoartscotland.net and the long running artScience collabora7on capefarewell.com
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Nil by Mouth: hap://crea7vefutureshq.com/projects/nil-by-mouth-food-farming-science-andsustainability/
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Museums of the Future Now: haps://museumsothefuturenow.wordpress.com
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Synthesis Report of the Secretary General on the Post2015 Agenda :: The Road to Dignity by 2030: Ending Poverty, Transforming All Lives and Protec7ng the Planet: available at: haps:// sustainabledevelopment.un.org/majorgroups/post2015/synthesisreport
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Hayley, D. (2011) Art, Ecology and Reality: the Poten)al for Transdisciplinarity. Art, Emo7on and Value. 5th Mediterranean Congress of Aesthe7cs.
•
Nicolescu, B. (2008) Transdisciplinarity: Theory & Prac7ce. Hampton Press, New Jersey.
Q&A
Albert Gleizes, 1912–13, Les Joueurs de football (Football Players)
Jean Metzinger, 1912-1913, L'Oiseau bleu (The Blue Bird),
■■■■■■■■■■■■■ We shall make the best of the opportunities that this cultural mutation affords if we relinquish the search for grounds metaphysical, transcendental or rational - on which we have run aground in nihilism. Instead, abandoning the spirit of seriousness that has animated Western philosophy from its founding, we may then come to regard the world-view intimated in our culture lightly and playfully, as evanescent art forms rather than weighty representations of truth. John Gray